ebbnflow
03-17-2013, 05:46 AM
I finally finished compiling all the original ebbcharts from 2007 thru 2013. The ebbchart patterns have been available to anyone at one time or another for free or subscription (earlier patterns were posted as spincharts in the forum), so everything is verifiable and transparent. Tallies for 2007, 2008, and 2009 have been double-checked for accuracy. I am pretty confident about the numbers for 2010 and up, so I left those alone. Minor adjustments were made on how I tallied wins and losses due to the 4-digit change in TSP prices. A fractional change in price (i.e., 17.0001 to 17.0002) is considered a win or loss, and not a draw. If anyone spots an error, just let me know. I also highlighted triple pattern occurrences and included comments.
As soon as Tom gets the file, he'll be able to post a link here for downloading. Dropbox is a no go (requires registration).
Every trading day, an ebbchart pattern (8 in all) records the win-loss results for the C, S and I-fund. In another couple of months, the patterns will reach an average of 200 appearances each (a milestone). You can compare the ebbchart to the Seasonality Chart (1950-2011), but it will take another 140 years to equal the numbers behind the ebbchart patterns. Note: The S&P 500 has a win percentage of about 53% (or 54%).
6-year ebbtally results: Patterns with 2 or more red signals (bearish sentiment) -- 5/RRR (59%), 8/RGR (55%), 3/GRR (55%), and 6/RRG (53%) -- have a higher win-loss percentage than patterns with 2 or more green signals (bullish sentiment) -- 1/GGG (52%), 7/RGG (52%), 4/GRG (53%), 2/GGR (54%). That's the contrarian trading strategy at work -- markets tend to go up when sentiment is bearish and down when sentiment is bullish.
Reversion to the mean has slowed down considerably for the ebbchart patterns due to the number of accumulated data. I will be updating the chart below from time to time.
http://i139.photobucket.com/albums/q299/gregorian9er/ebbcharts/ebbtally.gif
As soon as Tom gets the file, he'll be able to post a link here for downloading. Dropbox is a no go (requires registration).
Every trading day, an ebbchart pattern (8 in all) records the win-loss results for the C, S and I-fund. In another couple of months, the patterns will reach an average of 200 appearances each (a milestone). You can compare the ebbchart to the Seasonality Chart (1950-2011), but it will take another 140 years to equal the numbers behind the ebbchart patterns. Note: The S&P 500 has a win percentage of about 53% (or 54%).
6-year ebbtally results: Patterns with 2 or more red signals (bearish sentiment) -- 5/RRR (59%), 8/RGR (55%), 3/GRR (55%), and 6/RRG (53%) -- have a higher win-loss percentage than patterns with 2 or more green signals (bullish sentiment) -- 1/GGG (52%), 7/RGG (52%), 4/GRG (53%), 2/GGR (54%). That's the contrarian trading strategy at work -- markets tend to go up when sentiment is bearish and down when sentiment is bullish.
Reversion to the mean has slowed down considerably for the ebbchart patterns due to the number of accumulated data. I will be updating the chart below from time to time.
http://i139.photobucket.com/albums/q299/gregorian9er/ebbcharts/ebbtally.gif