Getting close to retirement

[biggdog1]

I am a new sign up and at this timeI have all my money in the G-Fund. I am planning on retiring from the Post Office in Jan. or April of 2006. Does anybody know when this market is going to stabilize so I can reinvest and make some moneybefore I die in this place?:^



Biggdog1

[Birchtree]

biggdog1,

From a longer term cycle the market is in a bull market that started 10/02. We had a 3000 point run starting 3/03 that ran to 1/04. We have been correcting that excess for all of 2004 and into 5/05. That process is nearly completed if not completely finished. The next leg up is how far and for how long? If you stay in TSP while you are in retirement you will have even more opportunity to make further gains at an even more rapid rate than in the past -why? You now have the leverage of cash and cash is the real bigdog in this game of life. Taking into account a multitude of facts which have been previousl posted-I would place my funds as such: 70% C fund and 30% I fund. Change your allocation contribution to the same percentages and then try and relax. Keep your eye on Tom and some of the other core C fund players.

Dennis

biggdog1 wrote:


Does anybody know when this market is going to stabilize so I can reinvest and make some money before I die in this place?:^


Yes, it looks like sometime in July.

[biggdog1]

:shock:Birchtree you are aggressive ! ! ! I did tranfer to 80%-G, 10%-C and 10%-S. I,m not too crazy about that I-Fund right now. I am a fund shifter and have convinced others to do so also. I think I'll wait before I go farther. I just can't afford to take too many risks right now.:%Thanks for your input.



BIGGDOG1:^

[tsptalk]

Welcome biggdog1. I don't believe the market will be trending until later this year, early next year. If you are planning on pulling your money out of TSP when you retire, you may want to take the safety of the G fund returns because it could be a bumpy ride this year, up, down, up, down...

Tom

[biggdog1]

I agree. That's why I'm investing conservatively. I transfered 80%-G, 10%-c and 10%-S on May17. Hope I don't get bit in thearrears.



Biggdog1

[Birchtree]

Tom,

It might be time to review that sp500 graph for 1995. I don't think the train will wait. We had a 3to1 ratio today-I think there is more coming. I'll soon be picking raspberries in the old bear patch. I wonder if Wheels is familiar with those rapberries?

Dennis

[Wheels]

I wonder if Wheels is familiar with those rapberries?

Dennis

Excuse me for being dense but I'm missing the reference.

Dave

[Birchtree]

Wheels,

I grew up on the other side of the White Mountain, a paper mill town called Groveton. When I talk about raspberries I'm actually refering to stocks.

I also own some stock in a company called Nashua. I had an underwater cave diving instructor from Nashua, N.H. Live free or die- take care.

[Dave M]

Hey BD, if you are retiring next year then maybe you are CRS?If you are FERS you are going to need all of it so be careful of risks. There may be a couple of people here who have NOT lost money in their TSP since Jan1, but everyone else is making up for losses these days. Am I right people?

We got lucky this week butbe prepared to withdraw quickly if you have to.

Dave

[Birchtree]

biggdog1,

Remember cash is king-what a great opportunity-if you do not assume more risk, then the song by Otis Redding comes to mind. You'll be sitting on the dock of the bay just watching time roll away. Yes we have all lost money, but money flows in also. Last week I will tell you I dropped $46,000, am I proud of that-no. But I also did not practice the cut and run-this week I got $37,000 of it back. Next week the possibility exists to get another chunk back-and on we go. You just have to accept some risk, and in this cycle the bull is on your side.I apologize if I sound like a snake oil salesman. But my money does my talking.

Dennis

[biggdog1]

Thanks. I am civil. Made the wrong move today for I-Fund. I'm in G-fund for Mondays penny.

[biggdog1]

:@

[biggdog1]

:#

[biggdog1]

Birchtree you still scare me. You lost more than I have in my TSP ( who new you could transfer funds, I didn't for years ). Guessed wrong for the I-Fund today but I'm playing safe for Monday. I what that G-Fund penny ! ! ! Some guru on MNBC today predicts that the S&P is going to go up by 25% in the next 6-12 months. I hope she's right, I might even postpone retirement till next summer. Thanx for your input:^

[Birchtree]

biggdog1,

That guru was Elaine Garazarelli, and yes she will be right. I have listened to her ideas for years and she can be prescient. You would do well to pay attention-I'm not saying anything she didn't say today. What she did for me was verify that my decisions are on the right track. You have to have discipline and a certain amout of fortitude in this game to make it work. If it were easy everyone would be wealthy, but investing is more of an art than a science. Fear is good-never forget that- I was afraid all the way down the full 900 points, but I had a plan, made some sacrifices along the way to take profits and buy more stocks while they were cheap. Basically a very simple approach-adding to my dividend income. Now I plan to add to my portfolio all the way up and show people how simple it can actually be.

My account depreciated $138,000 from3/7 to 4/20. I'm lucky because I could afford to handle the depreciating asset base. Now I suspect I will be on the come back trail for the next couple of months-that is fine because I'm dollar cost averaging all the way up. When the majority begins to turn overly BULLISH I'll be concentrating on easing on out-reducing some positions with profit taking. I will never be out completely-cycle rider for the income. Back in March I turned over $118,000 on a round trip selling and buying. You can be like Otis Redding or you can be busy making money-you just have to get about learning.

[biggdog1]

:!You must be a nighthawk like me (22:00 to 06:30). I try to watch this stuff all night long. I like your thoughts on how to do it, I'm just short in both money and time:l:l:l

[grandma]

....Last week I will tell you I dropped $46,000..........

......this week I got $37,000 of it back.

.....My account depreciated $138,000 from3/7 to 4/20. I'm lucky because I could

afford to handle ....-



Gracious, I am so far out of my league here, I'm not sure it is even worthwhile to do an IFT !!!! :P

[Dogdaddy]

grandma wrote:
....Last week I will tell you I dropped $46,000..........

......this week I got $37,000 of it back.

.....My account depreciated $138,000 from3/7 to 4/20. I'm lucky because I could

afford to handle ....-



Gracious, I am so far out of my league here, I'm not sure it is even worthwhile to do an IFT !!!! :P



Grandma:

Surely with your experience you know how to separate "the wheat from the chaff".......those that have it don't nornally feel the need to talk about it in public. Must be embarrassing for the spouses and families of those who choose to do so. ?

Regards/Nick:^

[Birchtree]

Dogdaddy,

There you are-I pay homage to someone older than myself-another salty dog, that I understand is a Navy compliment.

I'll sweep up chaff all day long if it will help to make ethanol.

I show my laundry in public as a small service to others primarily to demonstrate the mechanisms of a functioning portfolio. How you win-how you lose-how you can always win again. I've actually gotten some mail thanking me. My approach is different and as you can tell(providing you believe me) successful. The market is a great equalizer-open to everyone-even those already in retirement.

C'mon put it out there-let us know what you are doing to invest- show some of us your stuff. We can all learn from each other, you input would be appreciated.

Are you close to Greg in your thoughts? Are you seeking safety in the shelter?

[Birchtree]

grandma,

Please-you are not out of your league-where else can you make money? You are presented with equal opportunity to maximize you potential if you so desire. We on this board are here to learn from one another. I was the lonely investor for many, many years. I didn't know any other investing types-did all my own strategic planning and dug my own holes. Now the burden has been lifted-people are willing to share information. Who cares if we all don't agree-the bottom line is where does your money grow. When we get back to the 3/7 highs I probably will be close to or over 1 million-so what. I won't be satisfied with that number-I plan on using my years of accumulated pain to earn a lot more than that. Everyone over time has the same opportunity-spoke with a guy recently who has the same goal-and I think via diligence he will succeed. Nothing happens overnight-young investors need to learn and participate.

I couldn't help but notice you birth date-born again I presume. Regards,

Dennis

[Birchtree]

Dogdaddy,

Not that I want to beat a dead bear- but my wife is in the FRS (Florida Retirement System) and in a year and onehalf she managed to pull down $114,000. She only gave back on a temporary basis around $15,000 during this last correction that ended 4/20. She already has comeback $8000 to date and had the good fortune to do some dollar cost averaging while on the lows. If we have a second half of year that is bullish she might easily pull down another $100,000. Do you think she is embarressed by telling folks out in internet land-she has worked hard and long to build her retirement-and besides she leaves it all to me. Tell us what you are doing in your retirement besides catching those pretty rainbows-fish. I used to brooke fish for trout in my younger days and the German brown was such a fighter.

Regards,

Dennis-renegade contrarian

[biggdog1]

I'm just a small time player here, butI sure do appreciate theinput and stategies that everyone shows here. I only wish I had found this site earlier. Thanx everyone :^:^:^

[grandma]

Birchtree wrote:
grandma,
I couldn't help but notice you birth date-born again I presume. Regards,
Dennis

Actually, the BD I enteredis the day before I joined the Board - to indicate I Was Born Yesterday as far as stocks/bonds/& tsp are concerned.

And, since youpresumed: As for being born again, yes, I am - September 1972 - At a Lay Witness Mission in a little Methodist Church here in NWArkansas; before that I hadn't known that being `churched' isn't all there is to it ....

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/angel12.jpg grandma