Guess the Jobs Report - Feb 2013

[tsptalk]

It was so much fun last month, I thought we'd try it again... :toung:


Tomorrow we get the February jobs report. Anyone want to make a prediction on the number of jobs gained / lost??

Briefing.com has estimates in the +175,000 area.

There's a blue travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)


I'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET on Thursday night.

Thanks!

[Birchtree]

My guess is 226,000

[SteveOhh]

185,000

[PLANO]

192,000

[Frixxxx]

164,000

[Viva_La_Migra]

169,000

[Cybernaut]

168,000

[nnuut]

167,000

[tsptalk]

+174,000

[Frixxxx]

+174,000Hedging your prize fund?

[remark]

+177,000

[tsptalk]

Hedging your prize fund?
I lost my mug. :D

[MrBowl]

162k

[clester]

161000

[RealMoneyIssues]

+194k

[PLANO]

Hey! Stay away from my number RMI you're not leaving me any wiggle room!

[RealMoneyIssues]

Hey! Stay away from my number RMI you're not leaving me any wiggle room!

:cheesy:

[JTH]

180K

[bmneveu]

+171,000

[imike023]

187k

[tsptalk]

Thanks for playing. I'll check the predictions and results in the morning.

[tsptalk]

My guess is 226,000

We have a winner!

Actual +236,000
Unemployment 7.7%

Nice job, B! If you'd like a mug, please PM me your shipping address. Won't hold my breath. :)

[tsptalk]

Looks like the early reaction has been a pop, and a bit of a drop so far. The Dow has given back more than half its opening gains, but it's early. "Buy the rumor, sell the news"?

A few years ago we saw surprise reports (50,000 above or below estimates) show a very clear pattern of fading the initial move a day or two later.

sentimenTrader used to track this. The pattern has been less consistent the last couple of years and that may have been why ST hasn't posted the numbers in a while. The fade has been coming more quickly lately. Sometimes in the afternoon of the jobs report.

[Frixxxx]

The report will be revised down next month, mark my words, by 50,000. Freakin liars.

[Birchtree]

I wouldn't be so sure - January was revised up.

[Frixxxx]

I wouldn't be so sure - January was revised up.
Nope down, 157K down to 119K.....

[Birchtree]

Mindylou must have been listening to MSNBC again - I'll have another talk with her to be more particular where she gets her numbers.

[tsptalk]

Mindylou must have been listening to MSNBC again - I'll have another talk with her to be more particular where she gets her numbers.
December was revised up... Jan down.