Guess the Jobs Report - Jan 2013

[tsptalk]

Tomorrow we get the January jobs report. Briefing.com has a consensus estimate of 180,000 jobs being added and a 7.7% unemployment rate, and a "forecast" of 193,000, and an unemployment rate of 7.7%.

Anyone want to make a prediction on the number of jobs gained / lost??

Since I have to get the AutoTracker prizes out next week, I'll offer a blue travel mug to the closest pick.

You can't pick a number already taken and each quess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

I'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET on Thursday night.

Thanks!

[RealMoneyIssues]

+196,000
Unemployment rate: 7.6%

[bmneveu]

The first number that popped into my head when i saw this was +181,000. I can't second guess myself!

[nnuut]

+167,000 7.8%

[Birchtree]

+226,000 would provide for a nice rally.

[tom1tom1]

+205,000 jobs sounds like a good #

[tsptalk]

+174,000

[remark]

+192,000 sounds about right

[sniper]

+200,000

[Frixxxx]

+158,000

[clester]

+206,000

[KneednDough]

+190,000

[Cactus]

+176,000

[ILoveTDs]

-76,000

[CrabClaw]

-40,000

[Intrepid_Timer]

146K and 7.9% unemployment

[99percent]

+160,000

[tsptalk]

I'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET tonight (Thursday night)... since I won't be awake when the report comes out at 6:30 AM my time.

[Luke]

+201K

[jb0441]

+182K

[Bronco07]

+178K

[FishinFool]

165K

(also known as "the average of the latest CNBC and Marketwatch economists' predictions"!!)

(Who Dares Wins!!!)

[tsptalk]

I'll reopen this thread up again in the morning after the jobs report. Hopefully no later that 10:00 AM ET.




birchtree
+226,000


clester
+206,000


tom1tom1
+205,000


Luke
+201,000


sniper
+200,000


realmoneyissues
+196,000


remark
+192,000


KneednDough
+190,000


jb0441
+182,000


bmneveu
+181,000


Bronco07
+178,000


cactus
+176,000


tsptalk
+174,000


nnuut
+167,000


FishinFool
+165,000


99Percent
+160,000


Frixxxx
+158,000


Intrepid_Timer
+146,000


CrabClaw
-40,000


ILoveTDs
-76,000

[tsptalk]

+157,000 it is. (and 7.9%)

Congrats! to Frixxxx! Please PM me your shipping info and I'll get that travel mug out to you!

Thanks for playing, everybody!
---------------------------------
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/jobs_contest2.gif

[KneednDough]

Congrats frixxx

[nnuut]

Only off by 1,000, wow that's close.

[Frixxxx]

Thanks Tom! My first win on the site!

[tsptalk]

Only off by 1,000, wow that's close.
A little too close. I think this contest was frixxxxed. :laugh:

[Frixxxx]

A little too close. I think this contest was frixxxxed. :laugh:Nice, Actually there is a web site that I use that is fairly accurate (I didn't use their number)....Not exact, but what is!

[tsptalk]

I may have thrown people off with the 180,000 estimate from briefing.com.

When the number was announced, +157,000, the reporter said it was about in line with estimates. I also heard 160K estimated on another channel.

[tsptalk]

By the way, is this rally triggered by the 7.9% unemployment rate? Remember, the Fed said interest rates will remain low until we hit 6.5%, so this higher than expected unemployment rate keeps us closer to low rates. If it came in at 6.9% would we be tanking?

[bmneveu]

By the way, is this rally triggered by the 7.9% unemployment rate? Remember, the Fed said interest rates will remain low until we hit 6.5%, so this higher than expected unemployment rate keeps us closer to low rates. If it came in at 6.9% would we be tanking?

The revisions to November and December job numbers triggered the rally. + huge. The markets got a 2nd jolt around 10am I think when a good SMI report came in.

[Frixxxx]

I may have thrown people off with the 180,000 estimate from briefing.com.

When the number was announced, +157,000, the reporter said it was about in line with estimates. I also heard 160K estimated on another channel.

The site I use listed 161K expectation I lessened the number because the revisioning of the past two months affect this month and covered the spread I usually see to the low side.