The top must be close...

[tsptalk]

These kind of headlines usually mark at least a short-term top...

From the NY Times Friday...

AS WORRIES EBB, SMALL INVESTORS PROPEL MARKETS (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=0)
(http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=0)
Americans seem to be falling in love with stocks again (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=0)


I mentioned 1500 as a potential target for the S&P and it closed today at 1503. 1520 is the top of an intermediate-term trend line. I don't think I can stay in any longer than that - if we make it there.

[nasa1974]

Once we top out how big will the correction be? How far will we drop. The big problem for us is that we can't react to the market quickly enough and stand to lose a nice chunk of change if we hesitate too long.

[rktect1]

1827 is the top.

i had a dream so...

[RealMoneyIssues]

1827 is the top.

i had a dream so...

There is no top, just highs and lows... so WHEN is the 1827? Without a date, your dream, is, well...

[nnuut]

If the dollar keeps losing value the top may be much higher than that.:cool:

[ILoveTDs]

The S&P might be getting close to the top.

However, congress just agreed to keep spending above the debt ceiling until they can agree on a debt ceiling in the next few months when they get around to it. What does that mean IMO? USD DOWN!!! US credit rating downgraded!!! Both result in the I fund growing. Just my opinion.

LMBF was off by one month - February is the month of the I Fund.

[clester]

The top is very near because of those headlines Tom mentioned. When the sell off starts and those same folks get scared again and sell then we can start back up. It will take at least 5% IMO. It is the way the market works. I've been a victim of that many times.

[Boghie]

ILoveTDs,

If we are in Sovereign Debt trouble than Europe is in collapse. And, we are probably nearing Sovereign Debt trouble. The Smart Black Swan Politicians are posing and preening. Personally, I think our bond market will force sense on our politicians. So I am not ready to fly to safety - and, where would that be. If we have a Sovereign Debt panic is either the G or F funds a safe harbor? Yowser.

My guess is that late Spring and early Summer will be a normal corrective market. Nothing major. Dumb Money is flowing from dumber investments to a market that has reached 'even'. Dumb Money will carry us up unless our Dumb Moneywise Black Swan Politicians take flight.

Lots of decisions, eh.

And, a Black Swan Sovereign Debt Bubble Crash will be horrific for the F Fund. G Funders will be happy, but their money will be at risk.

[tsptalk]

Once we top out how big will the correction be? How far will we drop.
By "top" I'm just thinking of a correction to perhaps the bottom of the current rising trading channel. I'm not ready to call a bull market top yet.


The big problem for us is that we can't react to the market quickly enough and stand to lose a nice chunk of change if we hesitate too long.

I have to admit that the 2 IFT limit helped keep me in stocks this month. I had moved 30% to G about a week into Jan as my first IFT so I didn't want to sell and use my last IFT because the seasonality chart for January says we don't want to miss that last week of the month. If I sold earlier I'd be waiting around for that dip that seems to be eluding the market.

[sniper]

fear & greed index at 94, usually when it gets this high the market is soon to pull back

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney (http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL)

[clester]

The only thing is...if we're talking about a pullback it may not happen. The market tends to frustrate the most people it can. When we all believe it won't happen is when it will happen.

[Boghie]

I think this thing will run till the fat pigeons (uh, I mean Black Swans) take flight in May.

[RealMoneyIssues]

I think this thing will run till the fat pigeons (uh, I mean Black Swans) take flight in May.

because...

[Bullitt]

1540 would mark a 10% gain from the most recent correction to 1400.

Most buy & holders are near the point of making money on all contributions now (if they held for the past 10 years) so optimism is on the rise. I usually don't pay attention to these kind of headlines unless we really get enamored by them and even if we do, they really aren't an accurate timing mechanism. If used for timing you're only going to hit a turning point by luck. (Well, it's luck no matter what, but anyway.....)

Coupled with some other factors such as AAII hitting 52% bulls and VIX dropping over 50% in the past two weeks, I'd have to say buying here is wrong unless it's part of a scheduled buying program such as tsp contributions. With a VIX at 12, gains are very limited.

I don't like AAPL but it's a bellweather and it's not doing so good. There have been around 4 distribution days the past 3 weeks in COMPQ but most of that is due to AAPL. OIH is up against resistance and is another leader. The most obvious is 1500 psych level which probably should trigger some selling. XLF looks strong here though which I wouldn't expect. Bonds also are holding up very well but most of that is due to pension funds overdoing bonds just as they overdid commodities in 2006-2008. Not the best indicator lately for turns because everyone is buying the bond dip hard. From a trading standpoint, Obama was a buy for for bonds, Mitt was a buy for stocks.

All in all, it's looking more bearish than bullish at this point. I am happily a buyer at 1400 again.

[sniper]

any of the top 50 wanna cluck so i can overtake them? *snort*

;)

[Boghie]

because...

Don't know bro. Don't overestimate my non-system system!!! Nobody buys my newsletter - and, I cannot blame them:cheesy:.

But, here is my thought. Those bond funds the dumb money folks own ended a little negative for the most recent quarter on their 401(k) statements. That might be the first time they have seen a negative quarter since they bailed out of equities in February of 2009. And, they just found out that the Hidden Hand of the Taxman ain't coming at them.

So, some will go to cash. And, some will start moving some assets to equities. They just saw that the S&P500 is even money man. Just gotta get in.

This is all very scientific BS, but it's all I got man. No charts. No candlesticks. No Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, or Weighted Averages. Just a trillion dollars losing money slowly and folks looking at the mail and trying to beat the street.

My guess is that the run will keep going for a month or so and then da'Boyz will take some profit. Will da'Boyz string em along or take em out right now. As with any con da'Boyz will try to real us in as far as they can. My guess is that correction time will be early April. It will be relatively mild because there are fundamental improvements to our economy so equities will remain under to fairly valued. Then, we shall see.

Does that mean that I - in utter oblivion - will follow the above 'system'. Nope. Ain't gotta clue. What happens if the FED decides to 'Defend the Dollar'. Or Greece attacks Italy. Or whatever...

[Birchtree]

If it's a 1982 rally the consolidation may not arrive until September. It will be a consolidation and not a correction from much higher levels - so the pain will be tolerable.