Talk about macdtrader's account

[macdtrader]

I madehandsomeprofits during by investing 100% in the C Fund in the 1990s. Unfortunately, Ilostover 20% of myC Fund balancefrom 2000 to 2002 by being greedy and staying in C Fund too long.I invested up to 100%intheI and S Fundsin 2003 - 2004 bull market and regainedmy losses.My current TSP balance is the highest I have had.

Since I am near to retirement (0 to 13 years), I hope to preservemycapital and have taken a very conservative investing approach since Jan. 2005. I admit that I cannot predictthe current market. I am hoping that a very mechanical quantitative trading system will work in this market. I don't want to be miss out on all of the profits if a new bull market begins tomorrow andam willing to change trading strategies if marketconditions improve.

[macdtrader]

HiPyriel!

Here isthe correct forumfor discussion of my account.Mr. Charles Biderman, http://www.trimtabs.com editor,advised institutional investorsin today'se-mailletter that he hasincreased from a 100%to a 200%leveraged bullish position in stocks. Charlesexplains the answerto the conundrum in Tom's column todayas follows:The smart money must bebullish becausecorporations are buying back more of their own shares than they are selling.The dumb money must bebullish becauseindividual investors are returning from the sidelines and investingmore money in mutual funds and stocks than they are selling.

Best wishes to everyonefor a prosperous summerseason foryour TSP accounts!

[macdtrader]

I like to follow highly successful investors who have made more money than I havesuch asBirchtree.Tonight I willchange to 40% C, 50% S, and 10% I.I Fund has been dropping and S is now in the lead. Smaller companies oftenseemto lead the way up in a bull market.

TrimTabs.com turned200% leveraged bullish again on Tuesday. To paraphrase from this excellent electronic newsletter for which individuals pay $6000 and companies pay $15,000 for one year's subscription, the stock market facesresistancefrom rising interest rates, energy price increases, andthe US dollar.Investors are paying moreattention to the real estate market than the stock market now.

However, US economic fundamentals aregood.Very strongmerger activity among corporations suggests corporations expect good economic growth. When the rest of the world wakes up tounderstand thatthe US economy is booming, the extraordinary shrinking float of corporate shares in the last 12 monthsshouldlead tomuch higher share prices.

My TrimTabs.com 30 day free trial subscriptionexpires this week. I hope another TSP investorwill sign up fora free trial subscription and keep us informed. Thecost for one year is roughly2% of my total TSP portfolio balance and I cannot afford to renew it at this time. Best wishes to all TSP investors for a profitable summer!

[rokid]

Mactrader,

FYI. Per an Amazon review of Biderman's book:

"He charges $6,000 a year for his Trimtabs.com newsletters for "mostly institutional" investors but this 6K a year is the 60% off sub rate for individual investors. Some altruistic intent huh?

He does collect information but I found a website that gives away for free most of the info he collects and wants to sell for 6K a year;http://www.capital-flow-analysis.com/" (http://www.capital-flow-analysis.com/)

I can't vouch for the accuracy of this comment. However, you might want to check out the referenced web site for Trimtabs-like information.It appears to be quite informative. :^

[macdtrader]

rokid,

Thank you very muchfor the information. I was not aware of this free website but will exploreitthoroughly when I have more time.

I am saddened by the terroist attacks today on the London"tubes." London is a major capital city and the UK'sfinancial center.Many innocent travelerswere probably injured or unable to report forwork today. Idetestthe factthatterroists plan their attacks on innocent people months or years in advance and can use their foreknowledge of coming events to reap profits in the financial markets when the public is panicking.

I hope that no one will panic and sell their shares again today as in 2001. I am keeping my current stock market allocations.Anyone else who opposes terroismcan buy shares today whileprices are lower and help to preventthe terroists from profitingfinancially from their crimes and atrocities.

[macdtrader]

The current stockmarket isjust as risky as Tom pointedoutin "Our Current Market Comments." The beauty of Tom'swebsite is that we are instructed daily about howand why the TSP stock index funds are risky. However, each investor must make his or her own decisions. I am taking more risk now because my best judgementis that the stock market is determined to grind its wayhigher. I predict there will be aconfusing mixture of sideways, upward, and downward movements which will defy the best efforts of the quantitative and fundamental analysts.There are simply too manyunknown variables. Also, I fear that a competingrisk ismissing the currentuptrendand running out of capitalduring retirement years. Best of luck to all of TSP investors!

[macdtrader]

I am diversifying again to 30% G, 10% F, 30% C, 10% S and 20% I after my recent losses in C, S and I.Thetiming of my recent move to 100% stock funds was late.As Tom suggests,F Fund may move up followed bythe I and CFundsnear the Labor Day weekend.Best of luck toall TSP participants.

[macdtrader]

At www.businessweek.com (http://www.businessweek.com) tonight, the SPXandDWCP6 month charts look the worst after dropping below their short term moving averages last week. The EFA and AGG charts still appear to have a slightupward momentumleft in them. However, over the past few months, I have not found the charts to be helpful in predictingwhat will happen in the next few trading days after the charts become available. With all of this uncertainty about the future, I decidedthat35 % G, 10 % F, 18% C, 12% S, and 25% I may besuitable for my risk tolerance level until I canfindany trend in these volatile financial markets.

Good luck to everyone this week!

[Spaf]

macdtrader wrote:
At http://www.businessweek.com tonight, the SPXandDWCP6 month charts look the worst after dropping below their short term moving averages last week. The EFA and AGG charts still appear to have a slightupward momentumleft in them. However, over the past few months, I have not found the charts to be helpful in predictingwhat will happen in the next few trading days after the charts become available. With all of this uncertainty about the future, I decidedthat35 % G, 10 % F, 18% C, 12% S, and 25% I may besuitable for my risk tolerance level until I canfindany trend in these volatile financial markets.

Good luck to everyone this week!

mac,
Take a look at the DJIAat www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com) Play with the indicators: MACD, Slow-STO, ROC, etc. Check www.barchart.com (http://www.barchart.com) for EFA results under ETF funds.

Rgds, ;) Spaf

[macdtrader]

Thanks Spaf. Ilooked at stockcharts.com this morning and decidedto keep the allocation change I mentioned last in this account talk. I still have over $9K in account growthwhich I madeafter Tom took his money out of stockswhen he thoughtthe recent rally was over. I ama nervousbull but don't want to miss any potential uptrend in stocks. It would takeabout 8 to 9 monthsfor may account to grow$9K with in 100% GFund.

[macdtrader]

Monday added over $1K to my TSP account.I didn't see Tom's e-mail in time to followhis move on Monday but I do like his current move and percentages. He is usually correct but sometimes moves a little early.Hopefully there is still time for everyone to profit fromthecoming market bounce.Iknow this is a risky move but not having enough capital in retirement is risky also. Each of us must weigh his or her own risk tolerance. Keep up the good work Tom and I hope everyone will have a profitable week!

[macdtrader]

IFT to 30% F, 15% C, 40% S, and 15% I effective COB Thursday 8/25/05. I losta littlemoneyon Tuesday and Wednesday this week.F Fund was the best performer both days after I put 100%into the stock funds.

As you know, I like to be in the funds which are trending upwards as F has been doing.I have not given up completely on the C, S and I Funds yet.Those stock fundsoftenstagea big rally whenmy investment in them is reduced so be ready. If C, S, and I continue to drop, I may move more money out of them. Good luck to everyone!

[macdtrader]

Reallocating to 30% G, 30% F, 10% C, 10% S and 20% I effective after COB Monday night. I lost over $1KFriday andwant totake a more defensive posture withoutcompletely abandoning the stock funds. I Fund seems to be the strongest stock fund now. G Fund should pay $.01/share early this week. Now that my stock fundexposure issmall, the stock market is likely tobounce upward at anytime. Best of luck to all TSP participants!

[macdtrader]

IFT to 30% G, 40% F, 10% C, 10% S, and 10 % I effective tonight.MY TSP account recovered about $600 yesterday.The DJIA is down almost 100 pointsthis morning.My intuition tells me tobe more defensive as I get older and closer to retirement.You youngsterswho arein your20s, 30s, and 40scan afford to take more risk.

I never know where the bottom of these correction phasesis but I have found that sometimes I can make money bybeing patient and waiting to seerising stock market averages before putting all or most of my TSP account into stocks.Conversely, I have sometimes made money by keepingall or mostof the TSP money in stocks until the averages begin to drop sharply. The difficulty in using thisstrategy is guessing how the daily volatility of the stock market relates to the weekly or monthly trends. I am attempting to overcome this problem by shifting lower percentages of my account on a daily basis. If anyone has a better timing system for C, S, or I, please share it with me.

Hopefully, Tom is right on the money and the stock market will bounce back forthe Labor Day 2005 weekend. www.businessweek.com (http://www.businessweek.com) does indicatethat spx, dwcp and efaare lookingoversold using stochastics. I mayallocatemore funds to common stocks tomorrow ifwe see theshare prices of the C, S, and I funds increase again. Good luckeveryone!

[macdtrader]

My account increasednicely yesterday. I like the strategy entered today by TSPGO! and am copying it. Good luck everyone!

[macdtrader]

100% L 2030 effective tonight. The prevailing bias today appears to be negative but I am not convinced that the underlying trend has reversedorthat stock prices will plummet.The NYSE advance/decline and volume indicators both are forecastinghigher stock pricesahead.

However, my account reachedan all time high yesterday and I am becoming slightly more defensive of mycapital. Also, this is the 3rd trading day after the Labor Dayholiday asshown in Tom's seasonality charts and September is usually a bad month for the S&P 500. (I think the X-axis should be labelledas the number of trading days afterLabor Day rather than the day of the month.) Labor Day seasonality was a profitable trade this year. I hope to profit from future trends.

Good luck to everyone!

[macdtrader]

100% L 2040 effective tonight. Stock and bond market averages are rising at this time. My trend following bias leads me to speculate on L 2040 today. I am hoping that several days ofa"ho hum" marketin an upward direction will add up to a larger TSP account balance in a few weeks. It has been working! Everyone have a wonderful weekend and good luck!

[macdtrader]

Staying 100% L 2010 today. The L 2010is 50% stock funds and 50% G and F Funds optimized to the efficient frontier (maximizing return for this level ofrisk) for those retiring in 2008 to 2014. The indicators are preponderatinglygreen (bullish) at http://www.businessweek.com for the S&P 500, DWCP, and EFA. However, as Tom noted, September is a historically weak month and there is a 50/50 chance that his long awaited correction will come to pass. Good luck everyone!

[macdtrader]

IFT to 85% G and 15% I on Thursday. The www.businessweek.com (http://www.businessweek.com) signals are growing more bearish for the S&P 500, Wilshire 4500 and EFA.It seems that Tom'scorrection is happening this morning.I was a "weak bull."

The Federal Reserve Bank willshrink the supply of money available for borrowingby selling more securities in open market operations. The Treasury will also sell more securities to pay for the Gulfcoast and Iraq reconstruction, war on terror, salaries, benefits, pensions,day to day operations, etc........... Interest rates should rise as aresult of those massive borrowings.(I don't favor F Fund when interest rates are rising but it should do well if they start to fall again.)

Iam growing more defensive butyounger investors can take greater risks and hopefully receive greater rewards.....I noticed that the I Fund rose yesterday due in part to a weaker US Dollar and am keeping 15% there.

Good luck to all!

[macdtrader]

Moving to 100% L Income tonight (74% G, 6% F, 12% C, 3% S and 5% I). I do not know which will funds will perform best this month andOctober was terrible in 1929 and 1987.I don't want too much exposure to stocks and bondsnow because my indicators mentioned above are in terrible shape. Buying stocks and bonds now is like trying to catch afalling knife. You can get hurt.

That said, Tom gave a great call on the I Fund last Friday and there is a chance he is right again. I am not good at picking market tops and bottoms. I have to make smallerexperiments or bets with the stock and bond markets since I ameligible for retirement now. You younger investors can take greater risks.Best of luck to everyone for building your TSP accounts into large accounts!

[macdtrader]

50% G, 5% F, 25% C, 15% S and 5% I effective tonight. Good work Tom! It seems that a bounce is coming to pass today in the equity markets as Tom forecasted. Time will tell if it is a dead cat bounce or a new bullmarket rally.I am increasing my exposure to stocks effective tonight. Since my indicators still look terribleI keeping 50% in G Fund.If wesee a rip snorting bull market rally today and Monday I will likely increase my allocation to the stock marketfunds next week. Everyone have a fabulous weekend and lots of luck with your TSP accounts!

[macdtrader]

Moving to 45% g, 15% f, 20% c, 10% s, and 10% i effective tonight. I don't like thedirection of the c, s, and i fundsnow and am becoming more defensive.A bottom may or may notbe near butmy losses are becoming morepainful. Good luck to everyone!

[macdtrader]

IFT to 50% C, 30% S and 20% I effective tonight. I realize this is a very risky allocation and your guesses are as good as mine about the future trends of the stock markets. That said,I am hoping for the wind atour backs to bring us a year end rally (as in 2004) asOctober ends today.

Historically, November and December are strong months and most years ending in 5 are positive years for the stock market. Gasoline prices are falling and the S&P 500 is higher. The London stock market ended almost 2.0% higher today. Rising interest rates may hurt us eventually but I feel that they are still relatively low.

Iwish all of you the very best of luck in your TSP accounts.

[Birchtree]

Macdtrader,

From my humble perspective you are not in a very risky allocation - you have obviously planned your strategy for gains and you have to be in to win. I wish you good tidyings.

Dennis

[macdtrader]

Thank you very much for your kind words,Birchtree. You are obviously one of themost successfulstock market expertson this website and we all look up to you.

Tonight I am making an interfund transfer to 40% C, 35% S, and 25% I.The 2005 end of year rally appears to be well underway and my TSP account reached a new17year high yesterday. I have found that I am not smart enough to jump from 100% G Fund into 100% C, S, or IFund on a frequent basis. With my limited knowledgeit ismore profitable tomake smaller portofolio adjustments. The uptrendsince the Veteran's Day weekend seems to be shifting in favor of large US stocks, i.e., the S&P 500.

Again let mewish the very bestof luck to all of myfellow TSP traders and investors. I fear that our national debt is growingso rapidly thatfederal and military retirees mayneed to be more financially self-reliant in thefuture. The only way I am aware of to do that withthe TSPvehicle is to invest more heavily in the stock market now while things are still going well.

[mlk_man]

macdtrader wrote:
Thank you very much for your kind words,Birchtree. You are obviously one of themost successfulstock market expertson this website and we all look up to you.


This one of your alias's Birch? Just kidding......................:P

[Birchtree]

mlk-man,

I appreciate your humor - after all you have had your battles and I can learn from a master strategist - it's just my turn. So I'll swing as it arrives - and you know it won't be pretty.

[macdtrader]

mlk_man, I am not Birchtree. He only invests in the C Fund. I am a TSP trend watcher/follower or TSP momentum investor. Which approach is more risky? Each TSP investor must decide for himself or herself. I believe in going 100% stocks duringbull market rallies and reducingmy exposure to stocks gradually if I can determine thatthey arebegining to plummet. That is the expensivelessonI paid Wall Street $60,000 to learnin 2000 - 2002. Stock market bottoms are hard to identify whilethey are happening.If you think you may have found one, only afew investors like Tom have the courage to jump in 100%.

Tonight I will be allocatingas follows: 40% C, 40% S and 20% I. What a great month November 2005 has been! My TSP balance has risento a new record high several days in a row and added about $15K. It seems that S Fundnow has slightly more momentum than C Fund.A rising US Dollaroften puts the brakes onI Fund returns now. However,I Fund has sometimes beentoo explosively rewardingto omit from one's TSP portfolio. (Perhaps foreignersarebuying US Dollars to purchase US stocks or bonds?)

At http://www.businessweek.com, the macd signal was very timely for the S&P 500 and DWCP rally beginning late in October 2005. You will note that the Commodity Channel Index, Relative Strength, Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, and all other signals for the S&P 500 and DWCP indices are now pointing upward (green) forecasting a rosy future. Our risk may be increasing as Tom states everyday.....but, on the other side of the coin, who knows? In addition, if you buy now and catch a year end rally plus the great returns in 2006 Tomsuggests are coming, won't that be having your cake and eating it too?

(Disclaimer: My investment record is not perfect. Now that I have explained my philosophy of investing, the markets may drop sharply. Historical charts aregood butthey certainly cannot predict thefuture of the stock markets.Everyone please do your own homework,make wise,sound and prudentinvestment decisions, and enjoy excellent returns.)

Everyone have a wonderful Thanksgiving andgive thanks forthemany blessings which Americans have butsometimes take for granted!

[macdtrader]

It looks and feels likethe 2005Year End stock market rally is underway. I hope that none of you will miss it.

Best Wishes to Everyone!

[macdtrader]

30% C, 35% S, and 35% I effective tonight. I realize this is a risky allocation. However,with only 9 trading days left in December, I am hoping that the odds are truly in our favor and we getthe Santa Claus rally which Tom's seasonality chartpredicted in his daily messagelast Friday.

I sendeveryone my best wishes fora Merry Christmas with a gift ofsuccessful TSP investingin Decemberand a Happy New Year in 2006!

[macdtrader]

Although I was not officially tracked by TSP Talk, by my own calculations my 2005 return was approximately 8.5%. Since then January 2006 was terrific and February is more difficult to predict.

Effective tonight I am reallocating to a more defensive portfolio: 40% G, 20% F, 10% C, 10% S, and 20% I. One reason is that all of the Business Week indicators have turned red and are pointing downward. I have not gone 100% G yet because I do not have 100% confidence in charts and indicators. In my opinion, we have to be somewhat aggressive to beat inflation. We never know when another 200 or 300 point increase will happen in the DJIA. We all need to catch a piece of those 200+ point gain days to improve our returns.

The government's official measure of inflation, CPI-W (1982-1984 = 100) rose from 186.0 in Dec. 2004 to 192.5 in Dec. 2006, an increase of 3.5% according to BLS data. Therefore my real return was only 8.5% - 3.5% = 5% in 2005.

I hope that all of you will invest wisely in 2006 and trounce the CPI!