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Builder
04-19-2004, 08:51 PM
Do returns in the G fund actually accumulate by fractions over time, or only by a whole cent every +/- six days as the TSP share prices page indictes? If they are applied all at once against shares in the fund at a single point in time, it would seem to make sense to move all your money into the G fund for that one day each week, regardless of whatever else you are doing. Then move it right back where you were beforethe next day.

Just a thought after lurking on this excellent site for the past few months.

Cheers.

tsptalk
04-19-2004, 10:54 PM
Hi Builder - Thanks for joining us!

I had the same suspicion you have, that it's a fraction a day,but it actually appears that the price is a whole cent that is calculated against the number of shares you have. So I think your strategy would work. The draw back would be risking a real move in a stock fund. In other words, do you want a guaranteed penny and risk not making .05, .10 or more in the C, S or I? You would also have to time it right because it can be 5, 6, 7 or 8 days between increases for the G. You might be sitting in the Gfund for 2 or 3 days waiting for that ~ .1% gain.

I think if it's a choice between the F and G funds, it may be a good way to sway you to the G fund. But if anyone has any better ideas, please let us know.

Thanks,
Tom

tsptalk
04-22-2004, 10:54 PM
If they are applied all at once against shares in the fund at a single point in time, it would seem to make sense to move all your money into the G fund for that one day each week, regardless of whatever else you are doing.
Hi Builder. This is just what I was talking about. We got our penny in the G fund on Thursday but thebig 1.5% gainson the C and S made it look like a loss. :v
I was 65% G and hated it.

Tom

Builder
04-23-2004, 05:23 AM
Oh, there's no question you'd miss a few, here and there. But then watching the moves the last few months you miss a few anyway. Would still seem that if you could get the guaranteed 4-5% of the G fund AND grab some gains in equities on top of that you'd do well, particularly in the current market.Even if you missed a one day run up here and there.

Had thought the G fund was a fairly straightforward interest calculation that would allow a simple model of when the penny would be applied. Looking at how the fund operates, its not simple at all, hence the 5-7 day spread between penny gains. I'd only be comfortable with the strategy I was suggesting if you could pin down with some accuracy the ONE DAY you wanted to be fully in G. Right now I'm not sure that's possible.

tsptalk
04-23-2004, 08:42 AM
Yes, Iagree. If we knew the exact day it would be a good plan.

The_Technician
05-12-2005, 07:11 AM
I've been looking into the G fund returns.....trying to predict the day it would jump to the next level....;)

I did a linear regression over the past 350 days to get the % increase per day and then added the number of days past the last price increase to get a day that would possibly be the day that the fund would jump to the next return increase.....

I think tomorrow the 13th will be the next day....the fund will jump to 10.86.....and then 6 days later it will jump again to 10.87......:D

Lets wait and see if I got the days correct.....maybe we can predict when the pennies come our way.....:^

The Technician:dude:

mlk_man
05-12-2005, 07:21 AM
The Technician wrote:
I've been looking into the G fund returns.....trying to predict the day it would jump to the next level....;)

I did a linear regression over the past 350 days to get the % increase per day and then added the number of days past the last price increase to get a day that would possibly be the day that the fund would jump to the next return increase.....

I think tomorrow the 13th will be the next day....the fund will jump to 10.86.....and then 6 days later it will jump again to 10.87......:D

Lets wait and see if I got the days correct.....maybe we can predict when the pennies come our way.....:^

The Technician:dude:
I'm thinking Monday...............

The_Technician
05-12-2005, 07:38 AM
Can you explain why...?

mlk_man
05-12-2005, 09:28 AM
"Typically", the G fund pays out every 6 or 7 days. Monday would be the 6th day and the last time it paid on the 7th day.

nnuut
05-12-2005, 02:49 PM
I think tomorrow the 13th will be the next day....the fund will jump to 10.86.....and then 6 days later it will jump again to 10.87......:D
Hope it works Tech. I think it's got alot to due with the moon and tides. Varies between 4 and 7 days. :*

The_Technician
05-12-2005, 03:24 PM
The hound is on the trail Nuut....I think I've got it....we will try it out for several increases and see how she fairs....;)

Looks like the skipper lost his voice today telling the crew to "Bail Bail Bail!" trying to keep the boat afloat.....:(

Tomorrow is Friday 13th......and it don't look good from the past couple of days....but it could just play out even....the glass floor look likes its cracking and the eggs shells have all been smushed!!! :D

:dude:

05-12-2005, 04:05 PM
In June and July 2003 the G Fund paid the penny as much as 8-11 days apart. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y72/W_W/WW.gif

05-12-2005, 06:43 PM
The Technician wrote:
I've been looking into the G fund returns.....trying to predict the day it would jump to the next level....
Has anyone called the TSP and asked how they determine when to increment the G-fund by a penny?

I assume they do it willie-nillie to keep people from being about use the penny-increase in their IFT decisions.

05-12-2005, 06:46 PM
Wonder Woman wrote:
In June and July 2003 the G Fund paid the penny as much as 8-11 days apart. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y72/W_W/WW.gif

Yeah, that makes sense. The interest rate paid on the G-fund was lower then, so it took longer between the penny increments. :)

nnuut
05-12-2005, 07:48 PM
When things don't look too good I like to BAIL OUT to the "G" and get my penny. They know this. It's just like IFT's, no guarantee, 1 to 2 days. If they {TSP} wanted to they could make the schedule known, but this way there is no guarantee They are in the clear.:*I think they have variables too. The Gov'tmay belate on the paymentfor The "G" etc.. Don't see them late when I lose in the "C", "S", or "I"!!:@That would be nice and fair. WHAT! Listen to me!!!!!!:X

nnuut
05-12-2005, 09:37 PM
Yeah, that makes sense. The interest rate paid on the G-fund was lower then, so it took longer between the penny increments. :)

Jul 21th 2003 "G" Fund 10.04, May 12 2005 "G" 10.85--- What?:%

2003



July
0.30

2005

Apr0.37

I don't get your point Greg???:oo

Norman

ckb21401
05-12-2005, 09:45 PM
I think we need to know the interest rate to predict the penny day. The rate is the loan rate listed on the TSP site, but I don't have the data for what this rate was going back to June of 2003. If we can find pepople who took out loans and are are willing to report loan date and interest rate we might be able to piece all the data together.

Craig

05-12-2005, 10:26 PM
nnuut wrote:
I don't get your point Greg???:oo

All I was referring to is that if G-fund is paying 4%, then the number of days between when the penny is added to the share price would be ~50% longer than when it was paying 6%.

Ya'll probably already knew this. My statement was probably poorly worded.

nnuut
05-13-2005, 11:30 AM
Why?:%

ckb21401
05-13-2005, 05:07 PM
nnuut wrote:

Why?:%

Assume I is the daily interest rate and N is the number of days needed to go from $10.00 to $10.01.

Then we need to solve for N in

10*(1+I)^N = 10.01.

We get N = ln(10.01/10)/ln(1+I)

But ln(1+I) is about equal to I (using Taylor Series approx since I is very small), so we can simplify to

N = ln(10.01/10)/I

If I doubles, N will go down by a factor of 2.

Craig

mlk_man
05-13-2005, 09:54 PM
You all are putting way too much into this. Remember, it's a government retirement plan. That being said, I'm sure they only work once a week...........:^

05-13-2005, 11:22 PM
ckb21401 wrote:
nnuut wrote:

Why?:%

Assume I is the daily interest rate and N is the number of days needed to go from $10.00 to $10.01.

Then we need to solve for N in

10*(1+I)^N = 10.01.

We get N = ln(10.01/10)/ln(1+I)

But ln(1+I) is about equal to I (using Taylor Series approx since I is very small), so we can simplify to

N = ln(10.01/10)/I

If I doubles, N will go down by a factor of 2.

Craig

Craig, That was anexcellent explanation!

pyriel
05-13-2005, 11:32 PM
The Technician wrote:

I think tomorrow the 13th will be the next day....the fund will jump to 10.86.....and then 6 days later it will jump again to 10.87......:D

Lets wait and see if I got the days correct.....maybe we can predict when the pennies come our way.....:^

The Technician:dude:
Tech, The G fund did not jump. Back to the drawing board?

Dave M
05-14-2005, 01:02 PM
Figure once a week. That is a 5.2% interest rate since there are 52 weeks in the year and the share price isnear 10.00. (Each penny is roughly one part per thousand and52parts per thousand is 5.2 parts per hundred.)

If 4.5%it will be 7times 5.2/4.5 orseven days plus (15% of a week) which is very close to one-seventhet voila! it is 7+1 = 8 days. So you have 5.2% is every 7 days, 4.5% is every 8 days, etc. Count the days and you have the interest rate.

Since every penny is one part per thousand, count the thousands you have in the fund and that is the number of dollars you get with every penny. Have a hundred grand? You get a hundred bucks a week. That's 200 per pay period; how does that compare with your contribution listed on your pay stub? ? About the same? Less? More?

For me, when those two numbersbecameequal, it was the signalto increase my contribution.

Dave

nnuut
05-14-2005, 01:42 PM
All this math is nice, but I challenge someone to predict it period by period. It's going to vary and that can't be predicted until we know what the variable is that is making it inconsistent. So there!:ooI don't think it is as simple as the intrest rates.:shock:

ckb21401
05-14-2005, 04:46 PM
nnuut wrote:

All this math is nice, but I challenge someone to predict it period by period. It's going to vary and that can't be predicted until we know what the variable is that is making it inconsistent. So there!:oo I don't think it is as simple as the intrest rates.:shock:


I think if we know the interest rate far enough back we can do a very good job of predicting the penny day. We need more data to determine if they are rounding up at a half cent or waiting until the amount crosses the whole penny threshold. Does anyone know when the rate went to the 4.5% it is at now?

nnuut
05-15-2005, 07:39 AM
I think if we know the interest rate far enough back we can do a very good job of predicting the penny day. We need more data to determine if they are rounding up at a half cent or waiting until the amount crosses the whole penny threshold. Does anyone know when the rate went to the 4.5% it is at now?

That would be really cool, if it works!!:^Go for it, the info is on the TSP site under Historys. Your the MAN. :ooDive, Dive, Dive!!!

The_Technician
05-25-2005, 08:27 AM
I charted the fund for the last 200 days and it doesn't follow a linear regression....it fluctuates in a semi-pattern though....I agree with Nutt.....it doesn't seem to depend solely on interest rates.....there are holidays, and whatever influencing the rate increase....but right now I think we are in for a 7 day period before the next change which would make it the 31st or 1st of June......

:dude:

mlk_man
05-25-2005, 09:17 AM
The Technician wrote:
I charted the fund for the last 200 days and it doesn't follow a linear regression....it fluctuates in a semi-pattern though....I agree with Nutt.....it doesn't seem to depend solely on interest rates.....there are holidays, and whatever influencing the rate increase....but right now I think we are in for a 7 day period before the next change which would make it the 31st or 1st of June......

:dude:

You told me a 2-day period wasn't good enough. Now you say it's okay as long as you come up with it? LOL

BTW, 7 days would make itthe 2nd.................Monday is holiday remember. Or are including weekends and holidays? If so, that would be Monday..............

I do however agree that we will get the penny on the 31st or 1st with the 1st being most likely.

The_Technician
05-25-2005, 09:50 AM
Contacted the TSP people and they said that the G fund is set by the US Securities at the beginning of each month...May is 4.5%...so it varies depending on the return on short term securities....;)

So it depends on the rate for the month.....I suspect if its low like Greg said I believe it was him, it will take longer....and if high, it has a shorter period....

So how do we approach it from here.....

1) get the rate at the first of the month

2) apply interest rate to a formula.....to calculate the date.....

3) rate increase should be good till the next month......that gives us 3-5 days of increases possibly during the month....

:dude:

05-25-2005, 10:33 AM
Appreciate you calling the TSP folks and sharing with the board.

:D

Do I have to bring out mr kitty again?

The one with the 30/30 and itchy trigger paw? :D

The_Technician
05-25-2005, 10:40 AM
DMA, its very apparent you got it 180 degrees out.....as you did yesterday....

I'll bring my eagle to meet your rat chaser.....

:dude:

05-25-2005, 10:42 AM
Do I have to release, LizardMonkey on ya???

http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/lostsurfsongs/pictures/ugly_cat.gif

05-25-2005, 10:44 AM
The Technician wrote:
DMA, its very apparent you got it 180 degrees out.....as you did yesterday....

I'll bring my eagle to meet your rat chaser.....

:dude:

And just what is that suppose to mean???

Just kidding.

Can we all please calm down???


Come on. Lets make some money or keep some money here.

We have some good minds lets use them to rule the world. :D

The_Technician
05-25-2005, 10:44 AM
Do you have to compromise your future profits/earnings......



:dude:

nnuut
05-25-2005, 10:44 AM
Children, Children please get along! :shock:Gonna get Banned Again, we would miss you.:x

05-25-2005, 10:45 AM
If I have give you two a group hug that to me would be a compromise but one I am willing to make it.

:)
http://www.christianadventures.org/images/Stock/group%20hug%20summit.gif

05-25-2005, 10:58 AM
I think we should all take a deep breathe.

Walk about for 30 minutes.

Then come back as friends.

:D:D

05-25-2005, 10:58 AM
Oh yeah you going to do anything prior to the deadline?

In like 60 seconds.:shock::shock:

05-25-2005, 11:06 AM
By the way Tech has been drinking again and was thinking outloud.

**** Have mercy on his wand **** His crystal ball is in the shop. :(

http://www.folkmanis.com/imagefilesA/Wizard.JPG

Mike
05-25-2005, 11:28 AM
The Technician wrote:
At the moment I think Mike and MM should get banned
Yeah, I'm sure they'll ban me for disagreeing with you. :oo

05-25-2005, 11:35 AM
You three need a room. :)

http://www.affiliate.viator.com/graphicslib/3878/SITours/Love.jpg

I can just feel the love.

OK. We are a little edgy we do not know what the market is going to do.

Lets make some or keep some money, huh?

Thoughts on market reaction on the GDP numbers?

:D Did you make a switch today?

05-25-2005, 12:06 PM
You all feel strongly about the markets.

Good. That is what we need. People that care about their futures.

Now lets use that to rule the world :D.

Use your talents to be the number #1 rated guy on the pat on the back list.

OK? :D:D:D

Until the next "how ya did" list comes out how about leaving each other alone for awhile and focus on making money or keeping money?

OK? :D:D:D

SkyPilot
05-25-2005, 02:15 PM
..

Show-me
05-25-2005, 03:02 PM
(sigh) Just read the last TWENTY-FIVE posts and didn’t really get anything but annoyed. What a waste of time! You guys got day jobs? I’m sure I pissed someone off with this but o’well seems to be the trend.

nnuut
05-25-2005, 04:37 PM
Show-Me, Didn't PMe off. You're exactly right. These guys hold lots of good info about TSP, but are acting like little Children "your piece of cake is bigger than mine!!! Wah, Wah!" . This may have happened before. Straighten up guys, we need you, without the BS!

Norman:*

Peer pressure isn't it great!:^

05-25-2005, 06:24 PM
So when should the G fund pay the next .01?

:D Spidey sensetells me basedon the rally after lunch the GDP number will impress.

Thee game it is rigged. To bad the deadline was not 3pmEST.

Smart money after lunch, dumb money is in TSP :P.

That was a joke :shock::shock:. We have to decide by noon.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/avatars/1087.jpgWho's your daddy?

Birchtree
05-25-2005, 06:32 PM
Ferdinand wants to stick his nose in also. Remember it's all about the money. We all have armpits and sometimes our ideas smell them. Please Mr Custer I don't want to go. No one makes your decisions for you - no one makes your payroll contributions for you. This is not High Noon on TSP. Let Fundsurfer settle things with just the facts mam. I think the graphics speak much louder than words- and can be relaxing. We all have day jobs, or some kind of job, except DogDaddy - he knows how to put it out there. C'mon square up - I need and appreciate the TA sentiments. Remember I'm a contrarian and proud of it. Many folks did miss the last bottom - but I'm not being overly critical because they missed out - at least I'm on the come back trail

Dennis

05-25-2005, 07:04 PM
Just making conversation.

Some of us are not under water :^.

I can see why people are afraid of expressing themselves here.

I am too.:(

Show-me
05-25-2005, 07:43 PM
DMA wrote:
Just making conversation.

Some of us are not under water :^.

I can see why people are afraid of expressing themselves here.

I am too.:(

I can too. But I think most are here to learn about TSP and the markets. I just hate reading all of the posts that are ........ What are they? The thing that erk's me is I DO read all of the posts looking for information to educate myself a little. And yes I too am afraid of posting at time for fear of.........being in the minority, wrong, misspellings, in left field, weird, unpopular, ........... SO WHAT!!!!

I'll add this if anyone is afraid to ask a question PM me and I will post it and take the ridicule. So what!!!! We are all here to learn and some are at the "I don't know anything" stage and some are at the "Old salty dog" stage.

Conversation - the use of speech for informal exchange of views or ideas or information etc

Antagonize - To incur the dislike of; provoke hostility or enmity in: antagonized her officemates with her rude behavior

Rant - a loud bombastic declamation expressed with strong emotion

Tirade - a speech of violent denunciation

Sarcasm - witty language used to convey insults or scorn; "he used sarcasm to upset his opponent"; "irony is wasted on the stupid"; "Satire is a sort of glass, wherein beholders do generally discover everybody's face but their own"--Johathan Swift

Good luck everyone!

05-25-2005, 07:55 PM
Well said Show-Me.

Based on the market action after lunch I would of put money to work today.

Now I am one day behind the power curve.

Which is actually two days.

They need to change the deadline to later in the day.

With at that is going on in the world I would rest easier if I was in G fund over a three day weekend. Probably kook but if N Korea test a nuke or if China devalues it will be a mess at the open Tuesday and we will be stuck. I do not like being stuck. The noon deadline really hinders my return performance. :(.

IMHO.

pyriel
05-26-2005, 06:25 AM
For once, I would like to be #1 in the poll for six months in a row. However, I can't concentrate and get my equilibrium to get my manta going because all I am reading are backtalks. Now, if I can get you all to work on a solution to make us all alot of money, I, along with our silent members here would really appreciate that.If anyone can bring me to the positive territory (returns), I would bow down, raise my hands and yell out "im not worthy."

05-26-2005, 06:53 AM
If the deadline was 3pm est I would of went 100% I fund yesterday.

Japan up .12, UK up .41, France up .78, Germany up .81

http://www.bakermedia.com/photos/data/12084/thumbs/1avatar1.gif (http://www.bakermedia.com/photos/showphoto.php/photo/15449/cat/12084/page/2)

tsptalk
05-27-2005, 12:34 AM
Show-me wrote:
(sigh) Just read the last TWENTY-FIVE posts and didn’t really get anything but annoyed. What a waste of time! You guys got day jobs? I’m sure I pissed someone off with this but o’well seems to be the trend.

I deleted a bunch of the posts so nobody else's time gets wasted.

Spaf
05-27-2005, 12:43 AM
Ur eliminating the random bear talk?

mlk_man
05-27-2005, 08:21 AM
DMA wrote:
So when should the G fund pay the next .01?

The 1st. :^

jgpalmerdds
05-27-2005, 10:58 AM
Well said. This bored is becomeing unnsafe again (mispelling added to take pressure off of all of us about the spelling thing).

Joel

jgpalmerdds
05-27-2005, 11:03 AM
Above message should read:

Show-me,





Well said. This bored is becomeing unnsafe again (mispelling added to take pressure off of all of us about the spelling thing).

Joel










http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/spacer.gif
Current time is 11:58 am

Spaf
05-27-2005, 11:19 AM
jgpalmerdds wrote:
Above message should read:
Show-me,
Well said. This bored is becomeing unnsafe again (mispelling added to take pressure off of all of us about the spelling thing).
Joel
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/spacer.gif

Joel ??What spelling thing U talking about????? Spaf

mlk_man
05-27-2005, 12:39 PM
Spaf wrote:
jgpalmerdds wrote:
Above message should read:
Show-me,
Well said. This bored is becomeing unnsafe again (mispelling added to take pressure off of all of us about the spelling thing).
Joel
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/spacer.gif

Joel ??What spelling thing U talking about????? SpafI assume it's in reference to me since I gig MT\technician on his lack grammatical skills occasionally. Joel doesn't like me much either even though I made him money last year. :oo

jgpalmerdds
05-30-2005, 04:05 PM
Show Me Wrote:

"I can too. But I think most are here to learn about TSP and the markets. I just hate reading all of the posts that are ........ What are they? The thing that erk's me is I DO read all of the posts looking for information to educate myself a little. And yes I too am afraid of posting at time for fear of.........being in the minority, wrong, misspellings, in left field, weird, unpopular, ........... SO WHAT!!!!"


Spaf-

I was justjoking with the misspellings idea that Show-me was emphasizing. That's all. He's right on target withhis analysis/observations, though I did want to get across the fact that this board is once again turning towards ridiculein some regards.

Joel

grandma
06-06-2005, 09:42 PM
tsptalk wrote:
I deleted a bunch of the posts so nobody else's time gets wasted.
Hi! I am not sure what you deleted, Tom, cuz there is a bunch of stuff showing upon my screen. I got back late last night from 2-week AL, and am having a dickens of a time playing `catch-up'! http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/stressed.jpg Tho, some of it is funny - and I like the picture of the monkey-cat!! (I guess that is what that is.) May 25 seems to have been a Very Busy Day for some!!



May I suggest that we have no more debates on G fund's scheduling? If someone does come up with a schedule, he needs to test it for the next 3 months before sharing, okay??

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/prayingsweat.gif

I missed you guys - !!

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/ballet.jpg

06-06-2005, 10:42 PM
Welcome back Grandma.

That was my attack monkey lizard.

He keeps the peace around here.

:D He is shooting to be the next Fed Chair.

The_Technician
06-07-2005, 08:41 AM
I have been taking another look at the G fund and the prediction process....due to its staggered behavior (it doesn't follow a constant interest rate) it makes the prediction very difficult....best attempts by charting against its approx.linear regression which right now is a 4th degree polynomial or against a straight line determine that the rate increase dateis just a guess....:(

Right at the moment I would be willing toGUESS that the next rate increase after this one today will be anywhere from the 13th to 16th.:?

After all info that has been gathered, there is no way though to accurately predict the next rate increase.:shock:


:dude:

06-08-2005, 08:04 AM
The Technician wrote:
I have been taking another look at the G fund and the prediction process....due to its staggered behavior (it doesn't follow a constant interest rate) it makes the prediction very difficult....best attempts by charting against its approx.linear regression which right now is a 4th degree polynomial or against a straight line determine that the rate increase dateis just a guess....:(

Right at the moment I would be willing toGUESS that the next rate increase after this one today will be anywhere from the 13th to 16th.:?

After all info that has been gathered, there is no way though to accurately predict the next rate increase.:shock:


:dude:



Does the position of Mars and Venus play into this in any way?

:DI was thinking of sacrifing a chicken and taking up Black Magic to figure this out.

All ready got my Voo Doo doll picked out. http://www.supercow.com/images/milk_man.jpg

Needles on order. :D

The_Technician
06-08-2005, 08:08 AM
I'd show ya'll the plot to show the irregularitiesbut I can't get the dang thing to copy & paste from Excelonto the message editor.....:shock:

:dude:

06-08-2005, 08:10 AM
That is ok.

I am very frustrated with G fund.

Must have an I fund feature where it screws you if you try to time it.

That is called the "lock box" of TSP money. Where does it go?

:P

mlk_man
06-08-2005, 09:53 AM
DMA wrote:

Does the position of Mars and Venus play into this in any way?

:DI was thinking of sacrifing a chicken and taking up Black Magic to figure this out.

All ready got my Voo Doo doll picked out. http://www.supercow.com/images/milk_man.jpg

Needles on order. :D



THAT IS A PERSONAL ATTACK!!!! YOU PROVIDE NO MEANINGFUL INPUT TO THIS BOARD AND SHOULD BE BANNED!!! YOU ARE A DISGRACE TO EVERY AMATEUR INVESTOR ON THIS PLANET!!!

Sound familiar?

You two-faced little.............................:@

Luv ya, have a nice day!

The_Technician
06-10-2005, 06:54 AM
file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/dabney/My%20Documents/My%20Pictures/Gfund.gif

Here is the G fund plotted since Aug last year....notice how the staggered Share price is dipping against the linear base line...(yellow)....

They seen to adjust the G fund to hold that rate of increase to the slope of the base line (which can change at any time) ....

The best you can do is guesstimate the next change by looking at the past tendencies of the fund......I figured the 8th or 9th on this change.....see the left vertical arrow.....I'm kinda figuring the next will be 4-5 days later.....

It is a guess, but a better guess is better than none......:^

:dude:

06-10-2005, 07:40 AM
Funny cycle. 8 days then 4 or 5?

Does that equal out to their claim of 4.5 annual return?

The_Technician
06-10-2005, 07:44 AM
Well I'm noticing that the fund is low of the base line.....and it will need a quick rate increase for them to stay in line with it......

I noticed that it did happen alot at the end of the year.....I suppose they were trying to get the annual rate correct before yearend....:^

:dude:

06-10-2005, 07:51 AM
They sure have made it so you can not time it, that is for sure.

I am going 50% S and 50 C today to play the Triple Witching Monday and bail back to G in front of PPI and CPI.

One day see if the averages play out.

I believe this could be the last chance until October to make any dough.

Within three months I expect the DOW to be at 9700.

Did a lot of chart work last night. That is my what my work told me.

Do not bash me. I just read charts not listen to "experts". :D

mlk_man
06-10-2005, 11:01 AM

06-10-2005, 03:48 PM
I vote conspiracy......... http://www.money-talk.org/images/smiles/icon_lol.gif

Birchtree
06-10-2005, 07:45 PM
DMA,

Don't you mean for the Dow to be at 11,700 by October? 9700 must be a typo.

06-11-2005, 04:24 AM
Nope 9700 to 9750.

:)Neutral is 4.8.

Fed has a long way to go.

John
06-15-2005, 09:17 AM
Since the G Fund only pays a penny every week or so, I don't think we are getting the benefit of compounding. There are no additional shares accumulated with the payment of interest. I am not currently contributing to the G Fund, but have funds in it, so it is easy to see the amount of earnings. The earnings (a penny a week) are the same now as they have always been. Even though my G Fund account balance is higher now, the amount of interest I earn remains the same. It is like an annuity payment, never changing. You would think the earnings would go up with the value of the account. It doesn't. The penny is applied to the number of shares held, which is only increased through additonal contributions.

06-15-2005, 09:20 AM
Hello John.

We had a eight day one recently.

I am "hoping" with the yields spiking G fund will pay out faster now.

We have all tried to figure out the process and it has turned into a mess.

Oh as you can tell by reading thisthread :).

There is no way to know.

A couple folks have called the TSP office. That was not fruitful.

I know that does not help but brings you up to date.

mlk_man
06-15-2005, 09:34 AM
John wrote:
Since the G Fund only pays a penny every week or so, I don't think we are getting the benefit of compounding. There are no additional shares accumulated with the payment of interest. I am not currently contributing to the G Fund, but have funds in it, so it is easy to see the amount of earnings. The earnings (a penny a week) are the same now as they have always been. Even though my G Fund account balance is higher now, the amount of interest I earn remains the same. It is like an annuity payment, never changing. You would think the earnings would go up with the value of the account. It doesn't. The penny is applied to the number of shares held, which is only increased through additonal contributions.
Hey John,

[post edited]

When the G fund paysits penny, it's a penny a share, not a percentage of your money. If you have 1000 shares, you'll get $10 added to your account.

Good luck,

M_M

06-15-2005, 04:02 PM
Theme from Untouchables here ******

biggdog1
06-15-2005, 09:55 PM
G-Fund should update today 06/16/05 !!!

06-15-2005, 10:27 PM
I hope it is not back to back 8 days.

Then there is no why it is paying the yield rate they are taughting.

biggdog1
06-16-2005, 08:19 PM
I guess everyone has noticed we didn't get our penny today ! :@Looks like Friday now, who's running this lottery anyway :*

06-16-2005, 08:54 PM
Will be interesting to see what the return ofG fundwill be "advertised" at the end of the month.

Wonder if they will chuck the norm .37% up there? :shock:

biggdog1
06-17-2005, 06:55 PM
CHA - CHING ! ! !

06-17-2005, 07:10 PM
At this pass if they post .37 for the month for G fund return I will be calling my Congressman to look at this "system" they have set up for I and G fund.:)

Mike
06-18-2005, 12:13 AM
If the G fund pays the penny two more times this month, the rate of return will be .37% on the month. My guess is that it will, with the final penny coming on the 30th just to squeak it in there. :P

biggdog1
06-18-2005, 12:39 AM
It looks like this fund is now on a 9 day cycle. That sucks !

biggdog1
06-21-2005, 12:41 AM
My lottery pick for the G-Fund update says Monday 06/27/05. Anyone with me ?

06-21-2005, 04:39 AM
I think you are right but just to make it interesting I will take June 24th.

Figure they will pay the .01 PRIOR to the newcontributions coming in.

http://traders-talk.com/mb2/style_emoticons/default/cheer.gifhttp://traders-talk.com/mb2/style_emoticons/default/cheer.gifhttp://traders-talk.com/mb2/style_emoticons/default/cheer.gif

nnuut
06-21-2005, 12:26 PM
:*I'll go for a4 day cycle this time and a 5 day cycle next, due to the two long cycles we had this month. My Vote is this Thursday and the 30th.:shock:

Norman

nnuut
06-22-2005, 04:46 PM
Maybe 5 or 6 :*who knows?

nnuut
06-24-2005, 07:40 AM
Maybe 6 or 7, ????? This is CRAZY!!!! :@

John
06-24-2005, 08:01 AM
I called the TSP a couple of times too and got no results. No one there could explain how earnings are determined. I then wrote them to specifically explain to me how the earnings are calculated. They responded by saying "enclosed is the booklet you requested". This booklet explained nothing. I didn't want a booklet. I read everything there is online. No one that I have talked to has a clue as to how this thing works, although I have heard the theories on how it is supposed to work.

I think the G Fund should be valued at $1.00 a share like money market accounts where you get addtional shares with earnings as well as contributions.

biggdog1
06-24-2005, 08:47 AM
I think it's tied to the bond market (HA ! HA !). Sometimes it takes a long time to get your penny when the market is like it is now. Today or Monday.

Sr
06-24-2005, 06:59 PM
The return may be low, but lets be glad it is relatively far more clean and honest than the I fund. At least there is no advertised price fixing on a daily basis here.

biggdog1
06-28-2005, 03:47 AM
CHA-CHING yesterday. We gots our penny. I don't see us getting another Friday ( $ PAYDAY $ ). Looks like we only got .27% this month, hmmm wonder who got the other .09%? New lottery says Tuesday JULY 05,2005. Now my pics went from a BIG RED X to see attachment.

mlk_man
06-28-2005, 07:34 AM
biggdog1 wrote:
New lottery says Tuesday JULY 05,2005.
I agree bigdog. I'll be bold and say the next two will be on the 11th and the 19th. :^

M_M

grandma
06-28-2005, 09:28 AM
biggdog1 wrote:
Now my pics went from a BIG RED X to see attachment.Attachment = pages of fomula -

biggdog1
06-29-2005, 12:25 AM
I do believe you will be right. I'm still wondering where that last .09% is going to go. Maybe we'll get .45% in JULY.



P.S. How is everyone else getting their pics shown, but man's best friend is in the doghouse?

mlk_man
06-29-2005, 06:09 AM
I don't think it actually went anywhere. All depends on the yield return for that particular month. Take a look at 2003 and 2004. You can see how jumpy it can be.

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/history_2003.html

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/history_2004.html

tsptalk
07-02-2005, 11:39 AM
John wrote:
I called the TSP a couple of times too and got no results. No one there could explain how earnings are determined. I then wrote them to specifically explain to me how the earnings are calculated. They responded by saying "enclosed is the booklet you requested". This booklet explained nothing. I didn't want a booklet. I read everything there is online. No one that I have talked to has a clue as to how this thing works, although I have heard the theories on how it is supposed to work.

I think the G Fund should be valued at $1.00 a share like money market accounts where you get addtional shares with earnings as well as contributions.

I am also confused. The Fed Funds rate has been raised from 1% to 3.25% in the last 2 years. Where are we seeing this? Credit cards rates perhaps? Mortgages have barely moved but they are tied to longer term rates. So short term rates would likely be where we'd see a difference, yet the G fund has not accellerated its return at all since last year.

I wish TSP would have been more helpful to you John, because I don't get it either.