Maybe Rates Won't Go Up Right Away

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Bonds are getting that dead cat bounce today. I read something stating why Greenspan would not be pressed to raise rates right away because the the action of the 90 day T-Bill.

And don’t forget, the 90-day t-bill is one of the best ways to tell when the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates. Currently it is showing the negative disparity is producing NO pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates.

I don't fully understand that but maybe stocks have factored in a rate increase that may not come until August? No wonder the markets are acting so strangely. So many possibilities. :?

[tsptalk]

Alan Greenspan is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee today. :shock:

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Some people say Greenspan should raise rates now and others say there is no need to at this time. No wonder the indices are having a hard time commiting today. I like that we have had a higher high already today (over yesterday). I'm still watchyesterday's low (~ 1129) for an indication of a short term trend change.As long as we stay above that today, the uptrend remains intact.

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Here I am watching the S&P 500 making it sure it doesn't go below 1129. I just noticed the S&P 500 closed at 1130on April 22, 1998. :shock:

That's a lot of nothing for six years.

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The kneejerk reaction to Greenspan isdown.1129 is not holding upas I see 1128 now.Thefact that we already broke yesterday's high, and yesterday's low makes thisan "outside day".

I am still nervous about that investor sentiment from the comments page (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_4_20_04.html). That could give a clue that we need to test the recent lows. Greenspan seems to be implying rate hikes are coming. Not too much of a shock. That is why I say don't get too excited about this reaction. It may be temporary. The last hour of trading should be interesting. Let's see if bulls will buy this pullback.

Sometimes after AG talks, the market moves one direction, then the next day it moves in the other. It's hard to make a call now. This is emotional trading right now. The small caps have really did an about face, also not a shock if rates concerns resurface.

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It's amazing how much influence one person can have. Look what AG did to the market. It broke down big time. Not only fell through 1129, but also 1121. A retest of March lows (~ 1187) is almost inevitable.

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Good morning. The S&P 500 broke over yesterday's high. A good sign. Small caps are strong today too. The dollar is still strong and stillseems to be hurting the I fund. I haven't decided anything just yet.

Basically everything I did today was wrong so far :?

With the S&P and Nasdaq both trading under their 50 day moving average, I will stay conservative. If they pop above, I may have to make another change.

Microsoft reports earnings after the close today.

"Basically everything I did today was wrong so far".



What do you mean? You are exposed to some equities, and have a safe position in the G fund.

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I just meant I pulled money out of S, put more into G and I. Rear view mirror analysis shows theywere all bad moves for today. I am just out of sync lately. It happens. My fear would be to jump in and chase this rally only to have a pullback tomorow. That'sthe whipsaw I talked about. I hate missing a rally but when things are going against you, sometimes beingcompletely in cash (G fund) helps youtake a step back and assess the situation a little better.

I'm just glad most of you are smart enough to play it as you see right now, rather than how I see it. You're making more money. :u That's what I like to see.