4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04

[tsptalk]

Before today's deadline I am going to get a little bold, hoping that nerves scare the market toward the weekend close. I am putting 25% in C, 15% in S and 25% in I fund, leaving 35% in G. So I'll be65% in stocks for Monday.

I am basing this on what could happen by the end of today since we are forced to make decisions by noon ET. The S&P 500 just went over yesterday's high which is always a good sign.Traders couldget nervous about holding stocks over the weekend giving us a nice price to be in for Monday. If we don't get late selling, we may be at a reversal ready to head up. We are very oversold andI am running out of excuses to be out.

I am only going 65% into stocks in case I am wrong and I will still have some ammunition to buy more if we do go down early next week.

I must be driving some of you crazy :oowith all of these transfers but this is just how I would play my account in a market of this nature.

Tom

[puertorico]

I go two news one good one bad

The good one is my numbers says monday

gonna be up:^

The bad one is ,I am always wrong...:D

[tsptalk]

The indices stayed surprising buoyant late today. I was hoping for some selling but the fact that traders were willing to take positions home over the weekend bodes well for the market next weekin my opinion. The buyers are getting a little bolder again.

The Nasdaq continued itsweakness but the third support area I talked about Tuesday seemed to hold on Friday. I said...

Just in case you are looking for a potential target on the downside, ~ 2019 would fill the gap. After that 2000 (psychological) then about 1975 (trend line).

Well the gap was filled, then 2000 came and went and today it hit 1982 where that trend line I talked about actually is (not 1975). If that area of supportcan't hold, thenthe floor falls out becausenext area of support isn't until 1905.

Better news is that the S&P did make a higher high today and a higher low (compared to yesterday). It appears to be at least a temporary change in trend to the upside.

[TSP-roulette]

Tom. I made a transfer to 100% in G fund before noon today. Is it feasible to make another transfer today or later on this weekend to more stocks,or perhaps wait until early Monday morning.I guess I jumped the gun this morningas the funds seemed to perform better than yesterday. Does TSP allow for more than one transfer\day? Just wondering, I am new at thisFund\stocksgame and confusion sets in some times.:?

[tsptalk]

Welcome roulette! Love the name. :)

You can make as many transfers as you want in a day, but only the last one prior to the noon ET deadline will take affect. So if you change your mind, just go in and initiate another transfer. In your case you will be in the G fund Monday no matter what you do. Any new transfer before Monday at noon would be for Tuesday.

Make sense?
Tom

[puertorico]

How are the bets for today ?

Will be a rally:^ or the bote go down:(

[puertorico]

I dont know but can't afford another down.

In my last three shot I went down two and one up.

so,i need even or I change strategy.

If market go down if not late for a long term.

I gonna sit in a long term:?Hope see some green:D

[highplains]

you aren't alone puerto rico. timing difficult last week. hope we get bailed out soon.:)

[puertorico]

HIGHPLAINS:^

i Can't stomach more red !no chin enoff!:D

[Frizz B.]

If you haven't check out my account, try to read and understand FrizzB account, in Members Allocation, it works for me and I am up over 9 % for the year. My last transaction hit perfectly from the F to the S, I am still looking for a 15 point rise in the S fund and then it will probably be time to get into the F or G fund. Just my opinion. I am not a day trader. I wait for my #'s to tell me what to do.

FrizzB.

[puertorico]

fRIZZ B. I check every single post in this forum.

U post too.Very nice stuff.But for an apprentice

that is big league.I will put an eye again .

U know is to much stuff in the game ,when is not

option is interes rate,or inflaction,deflaction,economic,

job increase,job decrease,good news,bad news,Some

times good news become bad news and viceversa,

sellout ...ect and all that circle make me confused.

It Is too much to handler in a same time.

Little by little baby step I will get there:D

I learning a lot here in three month [nice very nice] .

[Frizz B.]

I am very suprised at how well I am doing, I have hit on every transaction except for the move to the C fund on March 2nd. I have made up for that one, since. I believe my #'s just tell me when the market is in for a correction. Whether down or up. When I make my change we have either hit a high in the market and unless it keeps on going further it should start to go down, to a point where I hope that I hit again, where it has gone low enough and in time will bypass the point of my low and go high again. Just hope I keep getting lucky on this, so far so good.

FrizzB.

[tsptalk]

It certainly sounds like an effective plan. One thing you may want to work on is what you will do in a bear market. It seems like it could always have you in the stock funds as they go down. You might try using 2000, 2001 or 2002 data to see how your system would hold up.

Thanks,
Tom

[tsptalk]

One other thing Frizz. Not to take away from what you have accomplished because you have done what I have not been able to this year, but your system will work best in this type of market environment, a choppy volatile market. Like I mentioned, a bear market or a bull market for that matter, may need another set of requirements for fund changes. Think about that. You can havedifferent type of criteria based on whether the market is trending (like a bear or bull market) or oscillating, as it is now.

Like I've said before, I believe you are onto something but constant tweaking as you gain experience from different market conditions will make it better.

Thanks again,
Tom

[Frizz B.]

Is there a way to get day to day data for those years, I only believe you can get month to month data, I have made up to three changes in a month, some within 4 days of each other, that is how it can change so quickly, and yes I have thought and been asked about those questions about the bulls and bears market. I am good with #'s and even if I lose once in a while, I do not believe that I will keep this 90% record rate of transaction. I have faith in what I see. Even in a down market you had times where the market gained and then went to lose again. I hope I can keep adjusting to this, I am not trying to say I my system is perfect, but I hope I can stay ahead of the game with it. We shall see. I will look at the monthly data and who knows. I will let you know in a little while once I see how it looks. But without day to day #'s, I not sure I could use this system.

FrizzB.

[tsptalk]

What you can do is come up with a spreadsheet to convert actual S&P 500 and EAFE prices to a share price. For example if the S&P 500 was 900 in say May 2002, divide it by 100 to come up with a share price of 9.00. Then Divide the same day's EAFE price by 100 to come up with a share price and compare the two somehow. It might be sloppy but it should give you the same results percentage-wise.

Sounds like a lot of work but somehow I believe you like to do stuff like that. :dude:

Keep up the good work.
Tom

[marytsp]

I'm going to need a remedial lesson on how you figure your numbers. Thank you for your input. I, too, am learning a lot from this site. It's become my daily ritual to check in here first thing! Good job on everyone's part in here. Thank you!

[Frizz B.]

Tom, I have been looking for daily share prices for those years you were talking about. Without daily quotes, I can not know if my system is accurate. I have make up to 3 changes in a month. So Monthly rates will not due it for me. I have been tracking since June 1 when the market started to go up. The C, S and I funds were almost identical, and then the C took a back seat to the S and I. The S and I went back and forth until December and then the I fund has not looked back. I just keep watching the #'s and see how they relate to each other.

Do you know where I can get the daily #'s for the F, S, C, and I fund. If I do not have at least 3 of the 4 daily rates, I would not be able to justify my findings.

FrizzB.

[tsptalk]

I thought I was answering that question with my prior post? I guess it wasn't too clear. There were no shares or shareprices prior to last June. You can however use the indices themself to come up with your share prices. On May 31st, 2003 all funds were $10.00. If you are ambitious, using the indices and an Excel formula you can decipher what the hypothetical share prices were prior toMay 31st.

[Frizz B.]

I did understand what to do, but where to find the indices for each day is my question. Where would I find these indices for the funds.

[tsptalk]

Oh, I see.

Try here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC)

Sorry these Yahoo links don't convert very well here. The link is from http://.....to.....GSPC

[CJ]

Frizz B.,

You have stumbled onto something BIG, really BIG. By comparing the C to the S fund, and moving your savingsto the fund likely to narrow the gap.When I read that your moves have yielded 6%+ for this year,(while mine are struggeling tostay possitive), I opened up my spreadsheet skills. Here's what I did/found:

I see some problems comparing C with the S fund, because when one goes up or down the other usually does as well. So I calculated out some columns to compare the C,S & I funds to the constant and steady G fund using a % instead of hard numbers (C to S 100 or lower, S to C 115 or higher)

I found that a 13% gain could have been made from Jan02 through April this year.

For example: On Jan 28 and 29th my calcultionsindicated that all three funds indicated a GET IN date
C at 115%, F at 126% and I at 127% over the G fund.
Then get out dates around Feb11th with
C at 118%, F at 129% & I at 130%
Followed by the next get in date of Feb23 with
C at 116% andS at 127%. (Notice a slight upward trend)

I figure in a bull market the range over the G fund will keep increasing, but since March the range is comming back down, for example on Mar24 the C fund was just 111% over the G fund, then increased to 117%by April05, and is currently at 114% over G. -

CJ :^

[Mr. Duke]

Hind sight is wonderful when determining when you should have been in or out. Hense the Jan 28 date you referred to, however, we could have had a few more concecutive down days that month meaning that you obviously didn't want to be in on that day..Now don't misunderstand me, no matter what the stock did on that day..the fact of the matter was that the fund/funds had all dropped substantially enough that there was positive opportunity to recover the same ground originally lost and make some positive gains to the medium/norm. I have been doing the same, ie; waiting for the market to take some consecutive hits (bad days) hopefully losing 35-50 cents before getting back in .....timing is difficult....I was up 2.39% for this month but dropped .15% on monday and .75% on Tuesday...With Greenspans comments yesterday and comments again today...I believe I will get into the G and watch for a while. Just need to ride out today before the change takes effect....

Happy trading :dude:

[Frizz B.]

Thanks for the compliment, just remember, this is not a day trader system, if you believe that the market is still going to be a bull market, and you have made your trade back to the market, like I did on April 15th. then just ride out this down we just had. In time the share prices should go higher than the 13.02 share price, the price of the transaction on April 15. If you get nervous and trade just because you lost some share price, you will lose with this system. I have made some trades where the share price went considerably lower than the price that I traded at, but in a little time the share price came back and I made my profit. Right now what I am doing works on the bull market. I am going look at the history that Tom sent to me and see how my findings are. Get back later.

The big news that I did not and should have considered is the Greenspan effect. Knowing that people were now saying that he was considering the hike in the interest rate, should have been out of the market for his speech. But that Monday Morning quarterbacking and we can't do that. I think the Greenspan effect is one of those timesto bea daytrader, when there is a possibility of Greenspan talking, even if there is a possibility of a rate hike, the stocks seem to take a big bite.

FrizzB.

[Frizz B.]

When I started I only used the S and I, then put in the C and then the F. If I had used all the Funds at the begginning my % would be at that 12 to 13 % range. I got hurt using mostly the C and S. As you said the share price went down when the C caught up to the S. Being in the G or F fund would have made a bigger % for me. I was new to this and wanted to be only in the S, C, and I since I heard that this was going to be a good year for the funds. Using all the funds, yes Tom, even the G fund is a wise thing to do. Again you just can't get spooked when you see the shared are going down if you believer that the stocks will still rebound (being in the bull market in long term).

[Frizz B.]

Tom, everytime I click onto the website that you gave me for the funds, I get page not available, If I was to put this on the internet, what is the WWW. for me to use. Thanks again, and it was really nice to see someone else say that they put the #'s on a excel spreadsheet just to see the #'s for themselves and how they go up and down. The % change is something I never thought of. KOOL, A different system.

Frizz B.

[tsptalk]

Frizz -

No www, just "finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC"

[tsptalk]

marytsp wrote:
I'm going to need a remedial lesson on how you figure your numbers. Thank you for your input. I, too, am learning a lot from this site. It's become my daily ritual to check in here first thing! Good job on everyone's part in here. Thank you!
Hi Mary!
Sorry I missed yourpost. Itkind of got lost in the middle. I see it was your first so welcome! If you were talking about FrizzB's numbers, you might take a look at his account forum here --->"Frizz B Account (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/104.html)." I'm sure he'll be happy to answer questions, which I'm sure you will have,in his "Frizz B's Account Talk (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/107.html)" forum also. Just click on the links.

Thanks for joining us!
Tom

[Mr. Duke]

I also track data daily giving percentages not only daily up down percents but it also compiles and computes a running tally for the month (Always matches the end of month TSP figures exactly...However, I track on Quattro Pro...Not sure how to send the the program out for others to use.

Current figures since close of trading on the 21st of April


APRIL 2004 F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND
BBF %% 0.69 -1.5 0.38 0.6
MTD% CHANGE -2.24% -0.08% -1.06% -1.04%

MTD$ CHANGE -0.23 -0.01-0.14 -0.14

BBF % is the Percentage up or down for the previous month

MTD% (month to Date Percentage up/down) MTD$ is money (in cents) change:dude:

[Mr. Duke]

oops that didn't display well at all.. certainly didn't look like that on my screen when I sent it....Sorry

[Mr. Duke]

F- fund has lost .23 cents for the month equating to a -2.24% this month

C-fund has lost 1 cent for the month " """ -.08% this month

S- fund lost .14 cents -1.06% this month

I- fund lost .14 cents -1.04% this month

Keeping in mind this is if you were only in 1 fund since the beginning of the month. In and outs buying the dips and riding it out still gives opportunities to pull of a percent or two gain even though the overall stats are not to the positive. Recover lost ground to make you money:dude:

[smine]

Hope to recover! Lost $$ past 2 days. Haven't been this low since 3/30/04. Maybe today's upward stock swing (finally) will help recovery.

[Frizz B.]

I have pulled the S & P, can you give me the correct Symbols for the S, I and F funds. It will take me a little while to complete but I am on the road.

Frizz B.

[Mr. Duke]

Morning Frizz

Have been following your articles...My outlook/opinions are similiar....

Not sure if this is what you are asking for ...

I-Fund (EAFE)

Guys in my office did the research but I am passing it on. We can find out at the close of U.S. trading what the TSP I fund actually closed at sooner.

GO to WWW.MSCI (http://www.MSCI) (Morgan Stanley site)

click on Equity Indices on left side of page this will bring you to a chart screen with EAFE

It will show prices for the day of close, additional you can back date the calender at the top of the chart and see what the previous close was and see what you change will be. I have primarily been either been in the I to play or G to hide, however I have used the S in the past.... hope this is what you are looking for concerning the I fund

[tsptalk]

FrizzB,
On any page, http://www.tsptalk.com/, click on TSP fund index quotesnear the top left.

Thanks,
Tom

[TSP-roulette]

Good morning everyone. I know it might be a little early stillbut, anyone have allocation recommendations for tomorrow 4/23/04? before the deadline today?Tom? Frizz B.? Thanks all, your comments, responsesare all greatly appreciated.

[tsptalk]

Hi roulette-
I moved my response to...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=149&forum_id=22&jump_to=1076

Not that it is much help at this point.

[puertorico]

lOOk like today we are in greenGAME-land and

may be GREENNNN double-digit...:D

[smine]

I agree PR. Glad I left it in stocks as they are soaring. May move all to C and S, delete the I fund. :)

[TGA]

Don't know if I would give up on the I just yet! Tomorrow could be good..:^

[puertorico]

SMINE what u plan for tomorrow ?

reduce risk or stay put...:^

[smine]

I was just thinkingabout what TGA said, just as he said it!!May just leave everything as is: G25 C25 S25 I 25. That is unless I hear a compelling thought in the next 15-20 minutes.

[puertorico]

I'll stay put in 50-g 20-c 20-s 10-i

:^

[TGA]

think i'll pull the C & S and possably leave some in the I..

[smine]

Tom's getting out entirely! 100% G. I'm staying put.

[puertorico]

:shock:i Gonna tray to run the horse

a little more!now i'mscare ! :shock:

[Brak]

Wow, everybody is all over the place on this one.

I'm heavier in the I fund. Going 25C / 35S / 40 I.

We'll see what happens ......

[Lobo]

Well, I've been "lurking" at this great site for a weekor two. Thanks a bunch for all the info. I know NOTHING about all this stuff. Finances are not in my blood. But, I'm FERS and solid in the TSP. I took 100% out of G mid-January and put 50/50 in C & S. Kinda late, huh?! I've been $4,000 +/- ever since....in other words....NOWHERE!! :P Oh well?! And, of course, I fell off the "cliff" with many others the other day...until yeaterday and, I hope,today.

I've read so much of all of your comments that my head is spinning. You are all very smart in this.....I'm a dummy, newbie. Whew! Anyway, I probably am looking at it all wrong, but, I just decided that if I was even $1 ahead, or thought I would be by the end of the day, looking at the "hopefully-continued trend", that I would get back into the G. Then, I would just wait till it all drops again (which it seems to be doing a lot of "up" and "down" stuff right now) below what I sold for, or if the trend looked down for the day, and noone was scheduled to make any "wild" speeches - or other major events scheduled, I would jump back in. No real heavy "brain" stuff here...heh heh. Crazy, I'm sure...but, all I've been seeing for the last couple months is a steady "wave" pattern. I just got in half way up (or down) the wave, if ya know what I mean.

So, I pulled it today, for tommorow, and put 80%into the G, and, low-and-behold, said (I know I'm probably crazy), "just look at that I fund....it's going down...jump in now while it's low" Ha!:D So, the "I" got the 20% left. Whoooooo knoooows?!?!:shock: But, ain't it fun, toying with our retirement?!?!:?

Anyway, thanks for all the info, and "entertainment", I get at this site. I'm definately planning on passing this site on to some friends. It's GREAT!:^:^:^

Well, gotta get back to my nap....see ya! :zz

Lobo

[tsptalk]

Thanks Lobo, and thanks for chiming in. It's always good to hear some feedback from self proclaimed newbies. I like to know if you are learning or if we (I) are confusing you more.

Today is an interesting example. Like someone said, we are all over the place today. Some all in stocks, some completely out. It can be confusing but it forces us to take everything we are hearing and make an informed decision on our own. We obviously aren't always correct but it sure opens things up to debate and a positive learning environment.

Welcome!
Tom

G-30%

F-0%

C-25%

S-25%

I-20%

[TSP-roulette]

Well, what a roulette hey? I totally missed the boat today. Made some adjustments this morning hoping forgood returns tomorrow, but we all know how that goes. Thanks for all the comments.

[GTO1970]

I remained 100% in stocks today and it was very pleasing to see the nice gains today, but everyone needs to remember it's only paper and not in your pocket and could be gone by tommarrow evening! so do some jumping, just not too high just yet . we still have a barrier wall to get over and until them :oo

GTO

[highplains]

Hey all you brave prospective retirees. Anyone who thrives on stress, the market has surebeen complying the last few days. I have been trying to post a question? It is fundamental info, but since I am in healthcare and not economics, I may have missed this(in school). I am currently allocated 60G, 20C, 15S and 5% I funds since last monday. When I added the 5% I and switched from 65% G to 60% G, I was shocked to realize that I had also repurchased my S and C funds at the then higher share price, losing shares and $. I wanted to get to keep the S and C funds I so smartly bought at a nice low price!

If I go hide in the G fund, do I gain shares (since I am converting from funds with a currently higher share price)or just get to keep my $ principal? There is no way to change IFTs without changing 100% of our allocations, right? I feel stuck right now because I am not sure which way to go to protect my principal versus missing a potential stock market rise. (I know I am not alone in this).

I know there are some very sophisticated strategic systems that many of you have posted and they help, but I just need stock market 101 right now regarding how this TSP plan works. Thanks and if my ignorance entertained you then I hope it has brightened your day.:)

[tsptalk]

Hello Highplains -
When I added the 5% I and switched from 65% G to 60% G, I was shocked to realize that I had also repurchased my S and C funds at the then higher share price, losing shares and $. I wanted to get to keep the S and C funds I so smartly bought at a nice low price!
In essence, you sold and bought at the same price. When you reallocate, your old allocation is basically paid at the last closing price, then rebought at that same price. What you originally paid is of no concern at that point.




If I go hide in the G fund, do I gain shares (since I am converting from funds with a currently higher share price) or just get to keep my $ principal?
You gained shares with the same balance. It would be like selling 2 shares of EBAY for $50 each and buying 4 shares Microsoft for $25 each. You have more shares but you still have $100.


There is no way to change IFTs without changing 100% of our allocations, right?
That isbasically true. But it's not really a concern. If you have 100% of your account in G, let's say 1100 sharesat 10.37 a share (Total $11,407), and you want to move 80% into the C fund. So you do an 80% C, 20% G transfer.You would now have $2,281.40 in the G fund and $9,125.60 in the C fund. The G fund shares are still $10.37.
I hope that answers you question.


I feel stuck right now because I am not sure which way to go to protect my principal versus missing a potential stock market rise. (I know I am not alone in this).
You and me both ;)

Don't hesitate to ask questions. This site is for people who want to learn this stuff. And if I didn't answer your questions to your satisfaction, ask again until I do. :D

Tom

[highplains]

thank you for your help. I finally was able to view my participant statements on a non-encypted computer and it makes sense to me now with all the real numbers in front of me. I did notice a pattern. For the past three times I have sold my stocks and gone back to the G fund one day before a big fund price increase. Go figure.:(