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twodaystocks
11-24-2012, 12:15 PM
Ill try to post weekly charts of whatever fund I am in and why I am in that particular fund, as well as provide my feedback and opinions on the current market activity.

Handballer
11-25-2012, 12:07 AM
Ill try to post weekly charts of whatever fund I am in and why I am in that particular fund, as well as provide my feedback and opinions on the current market activity.

I'm looking forward to seeing your stuff. Thanks.

twodaystocks
11-26-2012, 10:58 AM
There is some chatter on CNBC regarding some positive news that could come out of europe later today. If that is true, I look for the markets to make their moves back towards positive territory.

21275

You can see the intraday chart of the S&P showed a pullback and test of its 50 moving average. It now looks to be testing the 20 moving average as resistance. We might see another test of the 50 as support before breaking higher around the same time this (hopefully positive) news breaks on CNBC. Fingers crossed.

twodaystocks
11-26-2012, 11:43 AM
I said earlier that the S&P might retest its 50 day moving average again before going any higher.

21277

Looks like my short term prediction was correct, now my question is, will it hold and allow the S&P to close above 1400? I'll have to wait for the news this afternoon to find out, but the short term chart looks good.

twodaystocks
11-26-2012, 12:21 PM
Another technical intraday chart update showing the point where support was tested, then the chart broke out to a higher high than before and that breakout point became a tested support level. I LOVE TECHNICAL CHART ANALYSIS!

21278

If the chart breaks out above its daily high point which is around 1404, that is a VERY good bullish sign.

JTH
11-26-2012, 12:38 PM
You're posting a 5 minute chart in a thread titled weekly charts, you may start confusing the elderly...

twodaystocks
11-26-2012, 12:44 PM
Good point. Maybe I should change the title to just "charts". Not trying to confuse anyone. Sorry if I did.

Birchtree
11-26-2012, 12:47 PM
And here I've been looking for love in all the wrong places - can we see the transports.

twodaystocks
11-26-2012, 12:58 PM
And here I've been looking for love in all the wrong places - can we see the transports.

DJUSTS? weekly, daily, intraday?

Sensei
11-26-2012, 03:01 PM
You're posting a 5 minute chart in a thread titled weekly charts, you may start confusing the elderly...


Good point. Maybe I should change the title to just "charts". Not trying to confuse anyone. Sorry if I did.

Or just put it all in your account thread. You can put whatever the heck you want in there. :)

twodaystocks
11-26-2012, 03:09 PM
Or just put it all in your account thread. You can put whatever the heck you want in there. :)

He did have a point. It was labeled the weekly charts, not the intraday charts. Ill just have to be more clear about what I am posting bc it is easy to get confused sometimes.

JTH
11-26-2012, 04:31 PM
He did have a point. It was labeled the weekly charts, not the intraday charts. Ill just have to be more clear about what I am posting bc it is easy to get confused sometimes.


Sorry, I was scratching my head (for a second) wondering why my weekly's looked nothing like yours. Nothing wrong with a thread titled weekly's, some folks like to focus on that timeframe. More folks tend to get caught up in the heat of the short-term and forget to step back and look at the bigger picture, having someone keep track of the weekly charts helps everyone.

twodaystocks
11-26-2012, 05:38 PM
I've done that many many times and it's almost a panic moment for me every time. If we had more flexibility in our TSP transfers, I'd be more inclined to look at a daily chart rather than a weekly. I plan to load a chart and some opinions tonight.

twodaystocks
11-26-2012, 07:53 PM
My weekly charts show more room to move to the upside, but that is HIGHLY dependent on the news and economic data and revisions through the end of this week. More and more analysts, CEO's, and politicians are becoming more positive in their opinions regarding the fiscal cliff. However, if you look at Friday's daily volume for the $SPX, it was the lowest in over 6 months, by over half a BILLION shares. If you want to stay all F/G, I definitely dont think you are alone in your position and/or overall outlook on the market, but I am all in the C fund right now. My weekly charts crossed the buy line last week. With that chart, plus the economic news seeming to turn a bit more positive, I feel overall pretty comfortable about my decision.

The Intraday chart today showed a sell-off in the morning and then slow and technical buying throughout the rest of the trading day. The chart tested and retested its support along the 50 day moving average, slowly gaining strength. After 245pm, the chart moved higher and tested its 20 as support until the Heavy buying volume that pushed the final close back up to 1406.29, less than 3 points below its open at 1409.15.

21281

My Weekly chart below is still holding abve its buy signal line (EMA 5). Had there not been a normal sell-off in the morning, I believe the S&P would have climbed slightly higher than its previous close. Tomorrow there are a few economic numbers coming out, durable goods orders at 830, home price index at 9, and consumer confidence at 10. Most forecasts are for revisions/reports to be lower because of SS Sandy. I don't think they really know what to expect. If these numbers come in higher, I look for that to be a catalyst for the bulls. Any numbers slightly lower or in-line with expectations, I don't see having a great impact, because of Sandy. I think they will be brushed off as a sign of the storm rather than that of economic weakness. I guess only time will tell, but I don't look to try to move out of the C fund unless there is a significant move in the markets.

21282

As always, any opinions or comments are welcome!!

twodaystocks
11-27-2012, 07:36 AM
Tomorrow there are a few economic numbers coming out, durable goods orders at 830, home price index at 9, and consumer confidence at 10. Most forecasts are for revisions/reports to be lower because of SS Sandy. I don't think they really know what to expect. If these numbers come in higher, I look for that to be a catalyst for the bulls. Any numbers slightly lower or in-line with expectations, I don't see having a great impact, because of Sandy.

The numbers are unchanged from previous reports, which is actually an INCREASE from the economic forecasts by almost 2%. For now, the futures remain unchanged currently. If the home prices and CCI come in higher as well, I think it will be a great day for the bulls.

twodaystocks
11-27-2012, 08:01 AM
Rally in Europe and home price index rises again as well. Looking good today, but the futures are still not moving.

twodaystocks
11-27-2012, 09:03 AM
November consumer confidence comes in higher than expected at 73.7 vs. 73.0. Markets are starting to look better now.

twodaystocks
11-27-2012, 09:32 AM
Looking like a sell-off kind of day in S&P. Maybe selling on positive news because of some uncertainty. Not sure.

twodaystocks
11-27-2012, 10:42 AM
HUGE buy at 11:35 on the S&P. Took it from 1403 to over 1406. Not sure why but as long as it holds I am happy.

sniper
11-27-2012, 11:15 AM
IWM needs to stay above 81.06 in order to break the down channel, it's tried several times and is flirting with it. 3 hours left in the day to see what happens :)

twoday are you a day trader by any chance? just wondering

twodaystocks
11-27-2012, 12:01 PM
IWM needs to stay above 81.06 in order to break the down channel, it's tried several times and is flirting with it. 3 hours left in the day to see what happens :)

twoday are you a day trader by any chance? just wondering

I'm not a daytrader according to the SEC rules. ;)

twodaystocks
11-27-2012, 12:01 PM
More of a swing trader at this point.

sniper
11-27-2012, 01:40 PM
More of a swing trader at this point.

Right on, same here. Good to see more active traders on this site though, it's always interesting to hear another perspective on the market :) cheers

twodaystocks
11-27-2012, 01:58 PM
Not happy about where it's heading right now. One comment from a senator and it killed the momentum. Ouch.

MrJohnRoss
11-27-2012, 02:45 PM
Great charts, twoday. Nice to see some good analysis here. Thanks for sharing. :)

twodaystocks
11-30-2012, 09:39 AM
Is this an intraday ascending triangle or a multiple top reversal?

21332

twodaystocks
11-30-2012, 09:51 AM
Ouch... multiple top.

twodaystocks
11-30-2012, 08:45 PM
What a crazy week! So much volatility and whipsaws this week it was crazy. It's times like these I am glad I don't trade on a daily chart. There were so many times I felt like playing it safe and pulling my money out and putting it back safely in the G fund, but I didn't. We will see next week if that was a good decision or not.
While I was looking over my charts, I went back a bit farther than my normal charts show and I noticed something that kind of worried me a little. 1425!!

21341

You can see in the chart that the 1425 level has been significant resistance for nearly 5 years. The S&P has only passed 1425 for a period of about 2/3 months since 2008! This could be bad, or, it could be an opportunity to reach new ALL time highs. If, and I know this is a huge "if", the fiscal cliff deal comes in the next 2 weeks, I am hoping to see a rally like we saw from March 2009 to April 2010 when the S&P rallied almost 75% from just under 700 to over 1200. Analysts have said it as well. When the cliff deal is signed, we have a great chance to see a 1000 point rally in the dow and I would expect the same from all major indexes. Sooner or later, that time will come and I hope we can all watch our TSP accounts explode. We all deserve it.

Birchtree
12-01-2012, 10:53 AM
It looks to me like we are in the early stages of another mega trend secular bull run that could last another decade - I have been smelling the sweet smell of superlative bull manure for the last three years and many of my succulent wall flowers are starting to shine with a holiday glisten. Each one of those scary dips has been an opportunity to add positions and increase income. The wall of worry is high and the market will continue to scale the heights.

twodaystocks
12-02-2012, 12:10 PM
It looks to me like we are in the early stages of another mega trend secular bull run that could last another decade - I have been smelling the sweet smell of superlative bull manure for the last three years and many of my succulent wall flowers are starting to shine with a holiday glisten. Each one of those scary dips has been an opportunity to add positions and increase income. The wall of worry is high and the market will continue to scale the heights.

It's hard to find an indicator that shows a sign that indicates otherwise. The full stochastic indicator turned bullish last week and doesnst whipsaw often. Everything right now is so dependent on Washington. No other data, no matter how positive, seems to move the market for any significant amount of time. Maybe the positive news is piling up like a spring, just waiting for a solution to the cliff. :D

21351

twodaystocks
12-02-2012, 10:54 PM
A couple of nice news stories regarding China and where the US markets will be next year.

Asia Rallies on China PMI, Japan at 7-Month High http://soc.li/guvLk8f

Stocks to Rise 12% in 2013: Goldman http://soc.li/cecrnGD

Now...If we can get some progress on the cliff, it's time to rally!:D

craigerv
12-03-2012, 06:58 AM
It's hard to find an indicator that shows a sign that indicates otherwise. The full stochastic indicator turned bullish last week and doesnst whipsaw often. Everything right now is so dependent on Washington. No other data, no matter how positive, seems to move the market for any significant amount of time. Maybe the positive news is piling up like a spring, just waiting for a solution to the cliff. :D

21351


What about the one that happened in June-July 2011? If you bought there you'd have bought right at the peak before the 2011 corretion.

twodaystocks
12-03-2012, 08:01 AM
Well, unfortunately there has never been an indicator or charting method that is 100% accurate 100% of the time. Having said that, by using the 5 EMA as my buy/sell point, I still would have been safe from the drop that followed. My method works for me with my TSP account. If you find a trading method that has NEVER failed, please let everyone know.

twodaystocks
12-03-2012, 08:30 AM
LOD today should not go below 1409. 50 ema.

craigerv
12-03-2012, 08:33 AM
Twoday, sorry, I didn't mean to sound like I was being a jerk. I've been working on some trading systems and false signals really jump out at me so I thought I'd ask a question to see if you had a caveat or risk avoidance in place. Looks like you use the 5d EMA as a sell to limit any loss. Do you use it as a hard signal or just as a warning? I agree, there is no trading method that always works, and if I knew one, I would never tell anyone because that is the best way to make it not work anymore. Keep posting, charts are valuable!

twodaystocks
12-03-2012, 08:48 AM
Twoday, sorry, I didn't mean to sound like I was being a jerk. I've been working on some trading systems and false signals really jump out at me so I thought I'd ask a question to see if you had a caveat or risk avoidance in place. Looks like you use the 5d EMA as a sell to limit any loss. Do you use it as a hard signal or just as a warning? I agree, there is no trading method that always works, and if I knew one, I would never tell anyone because that is the best way to make it not work anymore. Keep posting, charts are valuable!

It is a hard buy/sell signal. The point at which I feel the weekly trend has decided which way it is going. I wasn't offended by the way. I didn't think you were being negative at all. I use the EMA as opposed to the SMA because it tracks a bit faster and I feel it limits the amount I can potentially lose, and also give me reliable buy signals to get ahead with my TSP. Thanks for the comment. Just keep in mind, the markets are very "cliff news" driven right now. There was a great deal of good economic news last week that was overshadowed by a couple of negative posturing comments by politicians. Good luck trading!!

twodaystocks
12-05-2012, 02:43 PM
Got scared out of C today when the Pres was talking. S&P hit 1402 and I did a stupid panic interfund transfer from c to g. I left to run an errand and when I got back, it was back up over 1410. IM SO DUMB!! Looking at the weekly chart, even though it hit near 1400 and was below its 5 ema, it did not CLOSE below it. Also, to make myself feel more ignorant, the weekly lows are ASCENDING, not DESCENDING. Long story short, I think I sold when I shouldn't have, especially with more news coming at the end of the week and congress taking a long weekend. Oh well, live and learn I guess. If I still like the chart at EOW, or Monday, I'll more than likely transfer back in.

twodaystocks
12-06-2012, 03:32 PM
I still think everything right now depends on the situation in Washington, but here are my thoughts on the Daily S&P chart and my prediction of where it might be headed, in a perfect world that is. :D

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/14264-twodaystocks-account-talk.html