Cycle of Emotions

[tsptalk]

Seems like a good time to revisit this old friend...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/emotions_cycle.gif

[Birchtree]

I would calculate that we are still at the hope level for the near future - the market has a long way to go to get to optimism.

[clester]

I would calculate that we are still at the hope level for the near future - the market has a long way to go to get to optimism.
I guess the question is: are we on the downslope or upslope.

[alevin]

Indeed it does, Birch. have a long way to go to get to optimism. farther than you want to believe, perhaps. Denial isn't a river in Egypt you know, but its still navigable once you get over the sandbars.

[tsptalk]

I guess the question is: are we on the downslope or upslope.
Being only 8% or so from the top, I'd say we're somewhere between denial and fear. If a bear market is in our future, we'll start to hit the lower levels - probably before any official signs of the next recession. We can probably still play the bounces however (Another sign we're not near the bottom). :)

[sniper]

Being only 8% or so from the top, I'd say we're somewhere between denial and fear. If a bear market is in our future, we'll start to hit the lower levels - probably before any official signs of the next recession. We can probably still play the bounces however (Another sign we're not near the bottom). :)

actually i think we're between fear and desperation. market has a lot of fear right now but nobody saying the sky's falling... yet haha.

[MrBowl]

We are each at different places. Yesterday I must've been at the denial stage because I bought back in. This morning it was "hey, wait a minute", and it will turn to fear in the last couple trading hours if this downslope continues. If I can move through the cycle fast enough I will sell by the deadline tomorrow and wait safely for December. Let's face it, those clowns in DC are in no hurry to turn this around and jumping in like I did was like playing the shell game on the sidewalk in the city.

[sniper]

love your sig mrBowl, i can drink to that.

sucks my team's qb is prolly out for the season, but i'll keep the faith. maybe i'm in 'denial' mode as far as football is concerned :laugh:

and whenever the season's over, depression mode. preseason = optimism, and the cycle continues

[MrBowl]

Sniper, so many QBs just went down that I can't tell which team you follow. Best of luck, tho. These teams look a lot different when the starter goes down.

I love baseball also, and I'm a lifelong SF fan, so it was very tough having that excitement end. Now the 49ers will carry me awhile. February/March is the toughest, and I gravitate to basketball, mostly college, to fill the void.

This post proves that I'm still denial about the market, I guess. LOL

[sniper]

Sniper, so many QBs just went down that I can't tell which team you follow. Best of luck, tho. These teams look a lot different when the starter goes down.

I love baseball also, and I'm a lifelong SF fan, so it was very tough having that excitement end. Now the 49ers will carry me awhile. February/March is the toughest, and I gravitate to basketball, mostly college, to fill the void.

This post proves that I'm still denial about the market, I guess. LOL

Ah nice, congrats on that sweep, I have some good friends that are also SF Giants fans and we were all at the bar watching game 4 cheering em on.

I'm a Steeler fan, since 1990 (when I started watching football as a kid). Ben took a bad injury that might knock him out for the season, dislocated rib that was millimeters away from piercing his aorta and killing him, nasty.

[MrBowl]

Thanks, Sniper. Back in April/May I was explaining to people that the SF Giants were in a rebuilding year as they replaced older past-their-prime players with a youth movement. I guess they went through that cycle pretty quickly.

I guessed that you are a Steeler fan. I have a few friends that are also Steeler fans. I really think that is the NFL's premier franchise, and they have the best set of fans of any team.

Anyway, to throw in something "on topic"...I see so many people using technical analysis to try and time the market right now. In fact, my own little study led me to buy in yesterday. This is a purely news-driven market, or as FWM said, politically-driven. I don't know if any analysis or cycle can actually help out here. I was/am playing a game of chance that there will be a good (not-so-bad) few days leading up to the holiday next week, but the fiscal cliff and market reaction will likely hurt Black Friday, and I don't want to be in during that time. I can see from the news briefs that there is no urgency in DC to come to an agreement, so down we will go. But, we all want to be in when the agreement happens. Its like musical chairs.

[burrocrat]

Seems like a good time to revisit this old friend...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/emotions_cycle.gif

i was shooting for somewhere past desperation and rapidly approaching panic.

maybe this dead horse has a couple kicks left. just give me 3% and then get on with the flush that birchtree needs to realize his carradine hong kong closet self asphictiation wet dream rocket ride.

you know it's coming.

[JTH]

I'm stuck somewhere between denial & fear, funny thing is that's the usual... :)

[Birchtree]

From a long term perspective I'm still trying to see past hope for some relief. Thrill probably won't arrive for another three years.

[nnuut]

I take it you don't have a thrill running up your leg?

[konakathy]

I take it you don't have a thrill running up your leg?

I like staggering between excitement and thrill. Ignorance is bliss and a hell of lot more fun. wheeeeee!!!!!! :nuts:

[Sensei]

Personally, I've already panicked and capitulated, and am now both despondent and depressed. But I'm out of IFTs and stubbornly refuse to sell. It really doesn't matter where I'm at though - only where most investors are. And with 60% of the AT firmly rooted in stocks, clearly not enough people are panicking yet. I think inactive fear is the current market emotion.

[nnuut]

PorFavor Senior! NO.

[Bullitt]

From a long term perspective, this 10% drop presents a good buying opportunity. I saw a headline calling for panic selling in AAPL yesterday but I'm just not seeing it.

I had buy triggers on a few items at S&P 1350 which had been stagnant for a few weeks but finally hit yesterday.

[Talan150]

For me its more like this:

[Birchtree]

The beauty of retirement is that excess cash can be used to make more cash. All you have to do is be disciplined to save in your working years - it takes money to make money and TSP provides an excellent mechanism to help you do that. The money piles up quicker when you have the potential to move multi-thousand share positions around. Just learn before you churn is the golden rule and you can make substantial gains. You don't even need big percentage gains to acquire wealth.

[sniper]

From a long term perspective, this 10% drop presents a good buying opportunity. I saw a headline calling for panic selling in AAPL yesterday but I'm just not seeing it.

I had buy triggers on a few items at S&P 1350 which had been stagnant for a few weeks but finally hit yesterday.

Apple looks interesting right here. it's hammer time! (or i am in denial?)

21175

[Bullitt]

It looks like AAPL's weekly trendline from 2010 held. AAPL is a tough one because it has such a cultish following but I'm sure it has one more burst higher before it collapses below 400.

So goes AAPL, so goes the market. If it's bouncing that hard then that could be one of those market tells we all try to look at for clues.

[sniper]

you're probably right. a run-up from here in the major markets would look like the right shoulder of a huge H&S pattern (on weekly charts) which could be bad news. I figure the market can't really sell off much more without buyers being lured into another trap.

[tsptalk]

Where are we now?

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/emotions_cycle.gif

[Bullitt]

Where are now on the roller coaster ride?

[tsptalk]

I think the bears are in the despondency phase. :)

[Marjuno]

Hope we'll be always in a bullish phase

[James48843]

50622

Tom asked “Where are we now?”


That’s a great question.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=74921)

[Bullitt]

CNN says we're at 36 and have been pretty low the past month. Hard to believe. I actually thought we'd be in the 70+ range.

50633

[DreamboatAnnie]

Maybe its because Congress was out....:rolleyes: But they are back! :worried:

[tsptalk]

CNN says we're at 36 and have been pretty low the past month. Hard to believe. I actually thought we'd be in the 70+ range.

It's been trending lower all year for some reason.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/082421d.gif

[Bullitt]

I think we're just past denial and very close to fear at this point.

[DreamboatAnnie]

Bullitt...You nailed it! But some are still in denial...fear creeping in. I am right there...:( seriously looking at bear strategy.

[pmaloney]

I saw the title "Cycle of Emotions" and thought DBA had come up with another great song. LOL! :smile:

Anyone have any thoughts on going 100% S instead of 50% S and 50% C for the rest of the month?

We all have Cycle of Emotions. Luckily we can share together! :smile:

[pmaloney]

Hi again. I just noticed noticed that my posts number was 666 so I thought I would add another. God Bless America and thank you GOD for your Love, Mercy, Grace and Sacrifice for us all! Love you all! :smile:

[Bullitt]

Relief / Optimism?

Noticed a few people talking TSP again in the office the past week.

CNN extreme greed at 82. One month ago neutral at 56.

[tsptalk]

We may be a long way from your cab driver or barista giving unsolicited A.I. stock picks, but that will be a sure sign that the end is nigh. [emoji3]