View Full Version : Direction of F Fund ?
GTO1970
04-13-2004, 11:57 PM
My Jethro Bodine cipherin show F Fund down .36or 3.50% from the first of the year!
Could there be some earnings here to be made in the next month???:h
Love to hear some comments about it!:^:v
GTO
tsptalk
04-14-2004, 12:37 AM
You may see a short term dead cat bounce but the Fed is on the verge of raising interest rates. I don't think I would messwith the F fund right now.
JMO, :v
Tom
GTO1970
04-14-2004, 12:50 AM
Thanks TOM for YO info on F fund!
GTO:D
HiAll:
Have a question about the F fund. Went back to 1995 Historical Rates and saw that the F fund Annual Return for that year was 18.31. Is that because the I Fund was not introduced back then? Also is the HAR 18.31 in % or $.For the month of April of 1995 the F Fund was 1.38. The lowest month of 1995 was July –(0.23) and heist was Feb at 2.38. Was just thinking if the F Fund will do the same this year 2005?
Did not check to see if Feds had raised interest rates doing that time or not, wouldn’t know where to look.
Thanks swsop.
It's because interest rates were falling.They ain't fallin anytime soon, dear. Buckle your safety belt. We're in for a rocky interest rate ride. I'd only be interested in the F fund right now if we could short it.. :D
saraho wrote:
It's because interest rates were falling.They ain't fallin anytime soon, dear. Buckle your safety belt. We're in for a rocky interest rate ride. I'd only be interested in the F fund right now if we could short it.. :D
Thanks. This is why Ilike thissite:^
swsop
Not too soon swsop, you know what they say, go against the masses. Rising interest rates where "suppose" to be bad for the S fund last year also.
Good morning all:
A former poster explained to me when asks about the F fund. He said that when the C is falling the F fund sometime will rise. Also on one finance channel I forget which onethey weretalking about having bonds in your portfolio and that’s what got me to thinking for the short term with my Tsp. What the Heck it didn’t hurt, but it should did take away some of the pain. Well I have been 80% invested in the F fund since Jan 10, 2005. On Jan 10th made an interfund transfer from 25%G, 10%C, 50%S and 15%I to 20%G and 80%F to be affective at COB. That’s where I stayed until Jan 20th when I made another transferto 75G and 25C at COB, following Saraho’s new allocations. I have seen lots of informational post about the F fund so I kind of took a chance on it and it paid off. But as my mother would say god bless her soul “A little equals a lot and that some is better then none”.
SWSOP
tsptorture wrote:
Not too soon swsop, you know what they say, go against the masses. Rising interest rates where "suppose" to be bad for the S fund last year also.
They would have been had they climbed more and been coming up from a higher low point. However, since the overnight lending rate was slashed all the way down to 1%(an all-time low!), and since the Feds only bumped it a quarter point per meeting in the 2nd half of the year, the rising rates never took a bite out of small caps.
This year's rate hikes could be more aggressive, and they are starting at a higher point than last year, so things will probably play out a bit differently. If I had to guess, I'd say part of the reason why the S plunged so badly to start the year is that fund managersstarted dumpinghuge chunks of their small cap holdings in favor of the blue chips (or maybe even cash holdings). They know interest rates are probably going to rise considerably this year, and they also know what effect (negative) that has on small companies. So, they engaged in profit-taking, leaving us where we're at now. Again, this is just speculation, but I'd bet that I'm right.
I'd bet that you're dead wrong regarding the blue chips. If what you said was true (buying blue chips), then we should have seen a significant bounce in the C fund. Instead, this has been "profit-taking" across the board albeit mostly in the small caps. Thishas occurred in a traditionally strong small cap month. If you're a fund manager and you see interest rates rising, why take the risk of investing in stocks when you have a sure thing that is going to give youmore than 1%?
Besides the interest rate play, thus far this year, there has been significant interestagain in the energy sector (probably due in part to the cold wave) andin junior metal companies.If inflation starts to really catch hold, asmany are assuming it already has (myself included) then the dollar will again start to drop and the metals rise, despite thecontinuing rise ininterest rates.
grandma
01-23-2005, 12:58 PM
Sitting in G fund againhas me feelingI am back where Iwas when I found this site and got started moving out. Then I find the market is changing its directions.What I gained since first of Dec, I have given back. I certainly don't have the Midas Touch, and could even nuture the thought I caused the slump for everyone else by joining up here!:P
Only a few have mentioned using F, some a whole lot, others just some. I would like to feel I am making some progress in these months before retirement, but don't want to move just because of hyperactivity-ness. I had some in F, then at the last minute moved it out the end of the week. Since then I see others have gone in, so unless I hear some Real `Oh No' s, I will replace it Monday before noon.
Thanx -
smine
01-23-2005, 08:01 PM
Yeah I hear you! Had money Dec. 30th then lost ever since!! Should have moved much sooner; listened to too many people who thought the New Year would come out swinging! Now back to Nov. money and trying to hold it with 50% G and F.
Timer
01-23-2005, 10:32 PM
grandma wrote:
Sitting in G fund againhas me feelingI am back where Iwas when I found this site and got started moving out. Then I find the market is changing its directions.What I gained since first of Dec, I have given back. I certainly don't have the Midas Touch, and could even nuture the thought I caused the slump for everyone else by joining up here!:P
Only a few have mentioned using F, some a whole lot, others just some. I would like to feel I am making some progress in these months before retirement, but don't want to move just because of hyperactivity-ness. I had some in F, then at the last minute moved it out the end of the week. Since then I see others have gone in, so unless I hear some Real `Oh No' s, I will replace it Monday before noon.
Thanx -
Hi Grandma, I'm sitting in the F Fund watching for stocks to bottom out then I'll jump back in. Lots of us lost money in early Jan. I'm thinking Feb won't be any better based on historic data. I might be in the F for another 5 weeks or so. = Timer
Smine... You were right as I recall, January for the first few weeks was suppose to be good.
Grandma / Timer.... The S&P had it's last higher high at 1213 on Dec. 30.04. If we advance above that we have the bull market. If we rally below that we will have a bear market. The current correction is leaving a lot of negative money flow in it's wake. IMHO we have a 50/50 chance either way (with not a lot of visibility).
My actions have been to park in the G-fund, to conserve resources. I'll wait for better investment signals.
Rgds :) Spaf
SystemTrader
02-07-2005, 09:02 PM
There's been a lot of talk about the F Fund here. It's commonly believed the F Fund is a poor choice because "interest rates are rising." Well, that's halfway true.Short-term rates are rising, but not long-term rates. And the F Fund has been the best performer this year. So what gives?
Well, my allocation is 100%in the F Fundfor a very simple reason--my system told me to do this. :D But whether you use a system or your own judgement, it pays to consider more than just short-term rates or "Fed hikes" when considering the F Fund.
First,price is arguably the best indicator for any security. And bond prices (not yields) have been going up. (This is true for corporate bonds like theDow Jones20 BondIndexand government bonds such as 30-year Treasuries.) If you're a trend-follower, then the trend is clearly on the upswing for bonds.
Some would argue that long-term rates will eventually have to rise if the Fed keeps raising shorter-term rates. Maybe. But that could take awhile. Bond traders are a savvy group, and their view of the economy isn't as rosy as the Fed's. They're not buying the idea that long-term rates must increase with each short-term rate hike. The decreasing yield on the 10-year is clear evidence of this.
I'll end with someinterestingfacts about long-term rates and the predictions of economists. (Note: this isan excerpt from Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's free email service. [E-mail: Investment U (mailto:CustomerService@investmentu.com)|Website: www.InvestmentU.com (http://www.investmentu.com).] It's not from a paid content newsletter or website.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Wall Street Journal polled 56 economists, and 55 agree: Long-term interest rates will RISE in 2005. But wait! Don't go making plans just yet...
Today I'll show you why those 55 out of 56 economists are likely wrong, and how it leads me to believe that interest rates have a better chance of heading LOWER in 2005 rather than higher.
You probably don't believe me now. But you will after reading what I share with you...
The Disastrous Track Record of "the Experts"
Twice a year, the Wall Street Journal polls economists for their predictions about rates.
It's nice of the Wall Street Journal to make the effort. However, after having 46 polls of the experts since 1982, the historical record shows that the only use of the "expert" forecasts is as a contrary indicator. Let me explain:
In the last SIX polls, the "experts" have predicted HIGHER interest rates in every poll. However, interest rates have steadily moved down. In fact, interest rates have been consistently moving down since the early 1980s, and the experts have consistently predicted incorrectly.
The actual forecasting record of the world's highest paid financial "experts" for forecasting interest rates is nothing short of disastrous.
Not only were they not even close in predicting what interest rates would be, they couldn't even predict the direction interest rates would move correctly.
Since 1982, the beginning of Wall Street Journal's Forecasting Survey, the experts have gotten the direction of interest rates right in their predictions less than one third of the time.
Flipping a Coin to Beat the Experts
Said another way, you or I could have flipped a coin as our prediction of the direction of interest rates. And we would have crushed the predictions of the experts.
Right now, 55 out of 56 experts are predicting higher long-term interest rates in 2005.
Most people will believe these forecasts. Investment U readers will know these forecasts are completely worthless.
If they have any value at all, it is as a contrary indicator... Which tells us that interest rates may well fall in 2005.
© 2004 Investment U
System,
The big pictureguy is back....that means the "smart money-paying that trade in order to eat" are saying that stocks are overvalued. If you read the data...there has been major outflows of money from the stock market and major inflows to the bond market. The closer the yield curve gets to inversion the harder the stock market will fall.
The overnight rate is 2.5% and the 30 year is (I believe) around 4.50%...why take 30 years of risk for 2% of yield? Only a fool would do that or fools that are SCREAMING AT YOU stocks are overvalued. Once again the charts and data tell you what is going on...not the talking heads on tv. The talking heads on tv are not allowed toown stocks...so all they care about is ratings...we all know when the market goes down their ratings (and in turn their bonuses) suffer.
That is the big picture.
MT
SystemTrader
02-07-2005, 09:40 PM
MarketTimer wrote:
The overnight rate is 2.5% and the 30 year is (I believe) around 4.50%...why take 30 years of risk for 2% of yield? Only a fool would do that or fools that are SCREAMING AT YOU stocks are overvalued. Once again the charts and data tell you what is going on...not the talking heads on tv. The talking heads on tv are not allowed toown stocks...so all they care about is ratings...we all know when the market goes down their ratings (and in turn their bonuses) suffer.
That is the big picture.
MT
MT,
I understand where you're coming from, but I'm not saying to buy and hold the F Fund or anybond/bond fund indefinitely.Thebond timing model I useis pretty sensitive tochanges in the bond market/monetary climate.If bonds start sinking, the model will give a sell signal before any majorbond losses.
From what I've seen,it's better to move to the F Fund when you're not in stocksif the bond trend is up. Yes, you'll lose a few $$ at times. But in the long run, it's more profitable than always moving to the G Fund.
As for the talking heads, I only listen to them for entertainment.
~John
SystemTrader wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
The overnight rate is 2.5% and the 30 year is (I believe) around 4.50%...why take 30 years of risk for 2% of yield? Only a fool would do that or fools that are SCREAMING AT YOU stocks are overvalued. Once again the charts and data tell you what is going on...not the talking heads on tv. The talking heads on tv are not allowed toown stocks...so all they care about is ratings...we all know when the market goes down their ratings (and in turn their bonuses) suffer.
That is the big picture.
MT
MT,
I understand where you're coming from, but I'm not saying to buy and hold the F Fund or anybond/bond fund indefinitely.Thebond timing model I useis pretty sensitive tochanges in the bond market/monetary climate.If bonds start sinking, the model will give a sell signal before any majorbond losses.
From what I've seen,it's better to move to the F Fund when you're not in stocksif the bond trend is up. Yes, you'll lose a few $$ at times. But in the long run, it's more profitable than always moving to the G Fund.
As for the talking heads, I only listen to them for entertainment.
~John
I think you're both correct..just reacting over different timeframes.. ST is more short focus. MT very long focus.
Show-me
02-08-2005, 01:32 PM
Hey on a educational note. Can anyone give a brief reason why the F Fund move so erratically.
saraho wrote:
SystemTrader wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
The overnight rate is 2.5% and the 30 year is (I believe) around 4.50%...why take 30 years of risk for 2% of yield? Only a fool would do that or fools that are SCREAMING AT YOU stocks are overvalued. Once again the charts and data tell you what is going on...not the talking heads on tv. The talking heads on tv are not allowed toown stocks...so all they care about is ratings...we all know when the market goes down their ratings (and in turn their bonuses) suffer.
That is the big picture.
MT
MT,
I understand where you're coming from, but I'm not saying to buy and hold the F Fund or anybond/bond fund indefinitely.Thebond timing model I useis pretty sensitive tochanges in the bond market/monetary climate.If bonds start sinking, the model will give a sell signal before any majorbond losses.
From what I've seen,it's better to move to the F Fund when you're not in stocksif the bond trend is up. Yes, you'll lose a few $$ at times. But in the long run, it's more profitable than always moving to the G Fund.
As for the talking heads, I only listen to them for entertainment.
~John
I think you're both correct..just reacting over different timeframes.. ST is more short focus. MT very long focus.
Sarah,
What I am saying the next nine months is going to be rough. Those who are patient will have assets to take advantage of the low prices...in 24 months we will be retesting the old highs again. The same thing happened last year...2002, 2001, 2000, 1999the only reason 2003 was not different was the retro dividend tax cut...I am saying you do not need to be invested 100% stocks all the time...the risk reward right now is horrible on the long side.
You are a good person. I want to get along with everyone. There are times to have your body and the water and there are times just to stick your toe in the water...I strongly believe to toe your way through.
I guess I am the only bearish person on this board...that is why I am the focal point of your hate...that is ok...but hopefully others would enjoy heasring a view based on charts, data, 16 years of trading experienceand not greed and need and the market allways goes UP. That simply is not true...the market goes down too. Hold and hope (the old school of hold and hope) is passe. Money mangers love the hold and hopers because they earn their management fee for doing nothing...nothing will take them out of hold and hope. Hold and hope works great in a bull market but not in a sideways or bear market. The market has traded sideways now for over six years...and the performance of the index funds are no where in six years. Good luck.
MT
What my sore spot is I reply to you...then someone else takes it out of context and thinks I am talking about them. Then it breaks down into a hissy fight between people that were sharing good ideas.
Do we really need people like Rolo on a board where people are trying to learn, plan and invest for their future?
Soon your social security will be a TSP plan and you will need to make wise management decisions because therewill be no longer be a net over the high wire...do you really want people like Rolo around to totally end and break up productive conversations. Stop and ask yourself that.
Because soon your families future will be on your ability to make investment contributions and not your ability to egg others on.
MT
MarketTimer wrote:
Soon your social security will be a TSP plan and you will need to make wise management decisions because therewill be no longer be a net over the high wire
safety net? Bahahahaa...you consider Socialism Security a safety net? That net is why the bulk of Americans retire in poverty.
Safety net...like trying to catch an elephant with a handkerchief....hehe BONK...picture this elephant with the pink skirt thing squishing a guy holding a handkerchief...funny stuff...wish I could draw.
One won't need to make super-fund-manager-like decisions to retire wealthy. We've been over this: Working life * max contribs * stock market average = lotsa moola. That is really all the wisdom one needs. The bulk of us here want more than that and enjoy tinkering with our portfolios, so stop trying to treat everyone like ignorant kids.
BTW, what return did you make last year? I asked you this before and do not remember getting a response.
Oh yeah, F Fund....I think that would be unwise and we're pretty much unanimous on that.
I haven't seen too many bond funds performing well at all.
The F-fund???
Thought I'd give it a second look. It kind of depends on the time frame. For the last 6 months it's been on par with the G fund. G+.19, F+.18. But taking another look the F fund increased .16 in the last 2 months i.e., Dec 1 = 10.32, Feb 1 = 10.48.
If you are going to play safe or sit something out. Give the F fund a look see, and use it to your advantage.
Also..Take a look at iShares Lehman 20 yr+ Treasury (TLT).
Rgds, ;) Spaf
cowboy
02-09-2005, 09:23 AM
I agree Spaf!! My thought is this rally is not that strong so play stocks till Friday if your in, and watch if your not.
Cinderella
02-09-2005, 11:39 AM
Rolo wrote:
Oh yeah, F Fund....I think that would be unwise and we're pretty much unanimous on that.
Not unanimous on the F fund being an unwise short term allocation.
Cinderella wrote:
Rolo wrote:
Oh yeah, F Fund....I think that would be unwise and we're pretty much unanimous on that.
Not unanimous on the F fund being an unwise short term allocation.
I agree, Cin. The Fed is raising rates, so NORMALLY, the f fund should decline. However, if the economy begins to fall apart at the seams, asis beginning to become a distinct possibility,the rate rises will cease and the F fund will prosper...
Show-me
02-09-2005, 11:48 AM
I'm usingF as a short term position and I take no credit if it works out. I'm leaching off systemtraders system. Playing safe in the F and buying on the dips and selling on the rallies in stocks. This could be bad for me and I am willing to make the sacrifice for the greater good.:P
cowboy
02-09-2005, 12:17 PM
True, I agree with all of you! I use the F fund for icing on the cake sort of speak. Since the begining of the year which fund has gained the most if you bought and held it. One thing about the F fund is it genreally will go up then if it goes down, it is slow. It did get real mean once last summer though! Ouch!
The dreaded F Fund:U
http://www.tspmoney.com/tools/graph.php?f=1&datestart=2004-12-21&dateend=2005-02-19&wd=700&ht=300
Cinderella wrote:
Rolo wrote:
Oh yeah, F Fund....I think that would be unwise and we're pretty much unanimous on that.
Not unanimous on the F fund being an unwise short term allocation.
I said pretty much. :P
:)
Too much risk for how little reward...downside larger than upside, especially for short-term.
Now, really loooooong term, F fund is a bargain...scoop up those shares.
rokid
02-21-2005, 10:17 AM
A reason to hold the F Fund long term:
The F Fund is superior to the G Fund for strategic allocation diversification purposes. The F Fund has a low correlation to the C Fund and a negative correlation to the S & I Funds. The key to diversification is identifying and using assets with low correlations to one another. When I runmy optimizer to discover the TSP Funds' efficient frontier, the G Fund drops out at an 8.7% return.In other words, if you're interested in a greater than 8.7% annual return, the F Fund beats the G Fund. At less than 8.7%, G Fund can play a role.
However, I'm guessing that for market timing purposes, the G Fund is superior. It'sessentially cash.
Inflation worries, trade balance, budget problems, not being able to sell 10yrs at auction to fuzzy little foreigners, FOMC minutes= problems for the F fund, S, C and longer term I fund.
F and S are both to avoid that this point in the economic cycle. I am 100% G, I go in and out of I the fund once in awhile.Nothing else interests me. Did good in the I fund last week up .30 a share but happy I bailed on Friday. Not a time to get greedy.
This appears to be a good week to be out of the market. Only Friday evening will tell. Should be ensured at least one .01 next week. I am happy with that.
Dr_Dubious wrote:
This appears to be a good week to be out of the market. Only Friday evening will tell. Should be ensured at least one .01 next week. I am happy with that.
Anyone in G going to risk getting the stock funds in the "hopes" that GDP is not a surprise to the downside?
Would have to make the trade prior to noon to benefit.
Maybe I should just read my own post and be happy with the .01 gain for the week?
Ragin Cajun
03-01-2005, 09:13 PM
For the last 2 weeks, I have sought "safety" in the F fund, and it has cost me about $1300 :X
What is going on? Any reason to believe it will move up? Should I change my strategy on going to the F?
Suggestions?
RC
rajun cajun wrote:
For the last 2 weeks, I have sought "safety" in the F fund, and it has cost me about $1300 :X
What is going on? Any reason to believe it will move up? Should I change my strategy on going to the F?
Suggestions?
RC
RC, I'd stay away from the F fund for awhile. If not quite some time. Greenspan wants long term interest rates to start rising, not good for the F fund.
On a purely basic note, when is the last time you saw the F fund drop .03 in one day 3 times in a month and re-bound higher any time soon?
JMHO
IMHO, F fund will go below 10 this year.
Call me crazy call me nutty (do not bash me know) look at the end of year at the NAV. Those yields they be a rising.
;)
cowboy
03-02-2005, 08:11 AM
LOL! You have been sitting F full time the last two weeks with 13000 shares. WoW! I sense some nevousness now maybe F will make a move while stocks head down. I said maybe!
Ragin Cajun
03-02-2005, 10:26 AM
Cowboy,
I said I've been retreating to the F fund for safety the last 2 weeks. I was fully in stocks last Friday for the runup. I've just been bailing to the F instead of the G, and it hasn't worked well at all.
RC
cowboy
03-02-2005, 10:51 AM
rajun cajun wrote:
Cowboy,
I said I've been retreating to the F fund for safety the last 2 weeks. I was fully in stocks last Friday for the runup. I've just been bailing to the F instead of the G, and it hasn't worked well at all.
RC
Thats the risk of playing the game! I haven't done too well in it but when it starts to deliver maybe it will be the right move. I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods. If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
Ragin Cajun
03-02-2005, 11:19 AM
cowboy wrote:
If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
Cowboy,
Of course not. If your order didn't go through, you've swung and missed. It's happened to me too.
The reason I can say I've recently gotten ripped in the F is that I made a 1 day move last Friday into stocks (good move), but was back in the F Monday for a 4 cent drop (bad move). A 4 cent drop in the F fund is a bigger hit than a 4 cent drop in the I Fund.
I only count gains and lossesafter I make an interfund transfer. I was up .06 for the year heading into Monday. The 4 cent drop makes me down about .35. Ouch. Went 100 I for COB Wed.
If this is a temporary move, I'll head to the G Friday since there was a 4 day turnaround this week. I'll probably avoid the F, but you never know.
Good luck.
RC
Mr Bubbles is not working. 10 year is going the wrong way. If he is not careful we will have a yield inversion. That would WRECK the markets. Last time we had a yield inversion was March 2000. History does repeat itself. F Fund MAY have a good day today. The guy wants the long rates to move up and he just can not get the job done. He is a national treasury...
cowboy
03-02-2005, 07:42 PM
rajun cajun wrote:
cowboy wrote:
If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
Cowboy,
Of course not. If your order didn't go through, you've swung and missed. It's happened to me too.
The reason I can say I've recently gotten ripped in the F is that I made a 1 day move last Friday into stocks (good move), but was back in the F Monday for a 4 cent drop (bad move). A 4 cent drop in the F fund is a bigger hit than a 4 cent drop in the I Fund.
I only count gains and lossesafter I make an interfund transfer. I was up .06 for the year heading into Monday. The 4 cent drop makes me down about .35. Ouch. Went 100 I for COB Wed.
If this is a temporary move, I'll head to the G Friday since there was a 4 day turnaround this week. I'll probably avoid the F, but you never know.
Good luck.
RC
I don't know but 4 cents is four cents regardless. Lets see what your telling me. Suppose you were in I and you lost 4 cents yesterday and gain it back today and then some you didn't have a loss. But if you were in F and it losses 4 cents and you go back to I and it gains some it cost you more! What if I fund went down 6 cents why you were in F did you lose 2 or gain 2? Forget about what could have been, concentrate on tomorrow! Too often were licking wounds and not concentrating on the next move. If it goes against you and you get lemons make lemonade!
cowboy
03-03-2005, 09:09 AM
cowboy wrote:
rajun cajun wrote:
Cowboy,
I said I've been retreating to the F fund for safety the last 2 weeks. I was fully in stocks last Friday for the runup. I've just been bailing to the F instead of the G, and it hasn't worked well at all.
RC
Thats the risk of playing the game! I haven't done too well in it but when it starts to deliver maybe it will be the right move. I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods. If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods.I sense some nevousness now maybe F will make a move while stocks head down. I said maybe!
I made both of these quotes earlier the F fund is going to make a move. I am thinking that S & C are going to range trade and Ifundwill keep going up. If I am wrong, it is a very good thing for everyone as we will break ressitance in the US markets. Only today or tomorrow will tell the story.
cowboy
03-04-2005, 11:41 AM
cowboy wrote:
cowboy wrote:
rajun cajun wrote:
Cowboy,
I said I've been retreating to the F fund for safety the last 2 weeks. I was fully in stocks last Friday for the runup. I've just been bailing to the F instead of the G, and it hasn't worked well at all.
RC
Thats the risk of playing the game! I haven't done too well in it but when it starts to deliver maybe it will be the right move. I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods. If you were in on the stocks then how can you say you lost money all u lost was paper, tomorrow you could lose more or gain more. The next time your in it you gain twocents what are you going to call it? A gain right! I make bad moves all the time and so does everyone else, there is no right and wrong way to play. Did you read my posts yesterday I lost big gains because of a faulty transfer whats past is past look to the future. Can you say I should have yesterdays C gain because I should of been in it.
I believe about time we get out of it, it will start delivering the goods.I sense some nevousness now maybe F will make a move while stocks head down. I said maybe!
I made both of these quotes earlier the F fund is going to make a move. I am thinking that S & C are going to range trade and Ifundwill keep going up. If I am wrong, it is a very good thing for everyone as we will break ressitance in the US markets. Only today or tomorrow will tell the story.
Now we have told the story. But what did it tell us? Here is my thoughts and I have been wrong just as many times as right. The C seems to have broken resistance and there is a lot of comments that the C is leading the S, so why aren't they getting into S. Why not jump into S like Namor did do.
The market is telling me right now that C broke resistance and S is still range bound. I believe S is the stronger market than the C, so my thought is the C may have given a false signal. I fund could be up or higher monday but do you want to chance that. I didn't play F fund cause it is up along with stocks and G may pay that .01 Monday everyone loves so much. If not it will pay it Tuesday. Will I be there. Don't know, S may go up and I may jump on Namor's train. Have a good weekend everyone.
vectorman
03-07-2005, 10:48 AM
Good volume noticed in the AGG chart for friday. F fund appears to have bottomed, now starting an up ward climb. Now maybe a better time to have a little in the F fund if you don't mine the risk.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG
Safetyguy
03-13-2005, 08:54 PM
vectorman wrote:
Good volume noticed in the AGG chart for friday. F fund appears to have bottomed, now starting an up ward climb. Now maybe a better time to have a little in the F fund if you don't mine the risk.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG
If you look at the charts for AGG long enough (and the W%R, RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc.), it looks like the F fund might be looking at a up to 2% possible increase in the next week or so. Especially look at the Bollinger Bands -- right now the price line is below the lower band. Everytime that has happened in the last few months, AGG's price has gone up 1-2% within 5 days. The problem is that it drops from that point pretty rapidly so it is hard to get out in time--darn the TSP interfund transfer lag.
Realize that this analysis is from a technical viewpoint and who knows how the market psychology will react to all the reports coming this week.
The_Technician
12-28-2005, 09:59 AM
Looks to me the F fund is high at the moment and it could be several weeks before it would be time to jump in......
Any body else have anything on this....???
:^
grandma
12-28-2005, 10:24 AM
The Technician wrote:
Looks to me the F fund is high at the moment and it could be several weeks before it would be time to jump in......
Any body else have anything on this....???
:^
Some time ago I read that waiting until the F went <99 would be the wisest thing. Then it did, and I didn't get in because I got into a debate w/myself as to why on earth anyone would get into F anyway. Thanx to all of you, (remember, Tech?) my mind was cleared - too late , then to get in!! ..am watching & waiting - again.....
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/mouseandswisspluto.jpg
The_Technician
12-28-2005, 10:34 AM
Grandma, lets see if this may help.....I looked further into the F fund since the last post and it looks like we might have a 4-6 day window to get in....seems to be dropping this morning and I'd give it a couple more days....but it has outperformed the G fund since I mentioned that the last time.....it would be nice if we could just stay with the G and get the penny till Tuesday but I don't think we may have that option.....the F will return a larger percentage anyway.....
:dude:
The_Technician
12-28-2005, 12:10 PM
Here's an interesting observation for you Grandma.....looking back at the historical data on the Funds at the TSP gov site and in 2002 the F fund return a really impressive return...but in Jan of 2003 it immediately started to greatly reduce its return.....start of year switch maybe.....anditdid the same form 1999-2000...a Jan start of year switch....from a non return to a good return.....
look at what I have been speculating on the market in general...start of the year downturn.....a switch......;)
This invites a strong possibility that at the start of the year the F fund should start bringing on some really good returns....;) an inverse to the market return here...
I think I would be in the F fund by start of year.....which also coincides my recent analysis of a few more days....:shock:
:dude:
The_Technician
12-28-2005, 02:31 PM
F fund has made a move recently since early Decand is preparing today and tomorrow to make a jump...when the Ffund does this, it has a tendency to jump sharply with a 1.5 - 2%+ gain over a short period right after..;)
Looking for the jump to start on the 3rd.....in the mean time, the other funds should be suffering....:shock:
:dude:
The_Technician
12-31-2005, 06:48 AM
Well we missed out on the G fund adjustment for the end of year....I guess next year I'll anticipate this and so should everyone else....
I see the F fund made the drop from its high the other day and now I fully expect that the fund will start making some returns like it did right after 1999....unfortunately I believe the other funds are toast.....except for the G of course.....
A penny saved is a penny earned....how true how true...
:dude:
The_Technician
01-03-2006, 11:25 AM
I noticed the F fund vol has been accelerating in Dec....set an all time high vol on 28 Dec....maybe this is a tell tale sign of things coming...:D
The_Technician
01-09-2006, 10:05 AM
Looks like we're in for a good increase on the fund.....looks to be starting today .....;)
Dave M
01-09-2006, 05:38 PM
I am smiling, Tech. Suddenly I see you in a different light. D
The_Technician
01-09-2006, 07:58 PM
I am smiling, Tech. Suddenly I see you in a different light. D
Must be a dim light.....seems the fund started good today and petered out....but I'm still expecting that increase soon....
vectorman
01-10-2006, 09:24 PM
Some bond news..http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
Wizard
01-10-2006, 09:39 PM
This is a record week for debt being sold. It could be a rocking week for the F fund.
The_Technician
01-11-2006, 08:17 AM
Maybe it won't have a good week this week.....lets keep an eye on it....
vectorman
01-12-2006, 10:10 PM
Bond news....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
The F fund is a nice play if you believe the Iranian situation will worsen (as I believe it will). I may add more to my bond position after the G fund pays out the next penny and continue to watch the equities side of things closely for a pullback.
vectorman
01-18-2006, 01:02 AM
Quote from Bloomberg bond news report-" The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.31 percent as of 2 p.m. in Singapore, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
vectorman
01-19-2006, 08:27 AM
More bond news, from Bloomberg..... ``There's no sign of the economy slowing down and Fed officials should continue to be hawkish,'' said Yasutoshi Nagai, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. in Tokyo. ``It's a misconception that long-term yields will fall further.''
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 5 percent by the end of 2006, Nagai said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
The_Technician
01-19-2006, 09:49 AM
I think its important to step back and get an overall view whats happening in the markets....without confusion.
Some of you know I have been developing some new analysis so that this can be done. Here is the sum of the analysis.
The indication of the CSI funds will be a mixed daily return for a while with a negative bias and they have been for a week or so (since around Jan 11). The F fund will be progressing but currently is taken a break.....
Comment:
Using the current economics that we have everyday I wouldn't put any other bias on the above indication of the CSI funds. It seems it will be controlled by the "oil wrench" and interest rates, and a poor govt report of inflation.
Considering the F fund, it will mainly be biased with the rate increases, inversion curves and the economics.....
Things probably won't change much over the next couple of weeks, and the "oil wrench" will not go away....expect more manipulation.
Soldat
01-19-2006, 09:52 AM
The higher oil climbs, the more inflation we will see. I want to be in F a few days before the inflation reports come out. But I is the place to be with a falling dollar. Will the dollar trade at 105Y after the hikes are over with? Time will tell.
Wheels
01-26-2006, 09:11 AM
This might be a stupid question but here goes. It looks like the ten year note is down about .25 but the yield is also down from 4.7 to 4.5. How does that work?
Dave
<><
The_Technician
01-26-2006, 12:14 PM
Yesterday, I saw a large change in vol in the AGG at or about 2:00pm, it went from 90000 to 142,000 in 20 minutes.... better than a 50% increase from the entire mornings volume.... and its not a daily trend either.........
I'm not really sure why it happened, but given it is low I'd bet it was a position play.....
If you take a look back at the AGG in Jun 04 thru Sept 04, I believe you will see a similar trading pattern showing up......back then, the F fund jumped 4% or there abouts in a matter of a couple of months.....while the other funds had problems gaining much at all...
I'm not really sure if it will happen here due mainly to diffferent economics..... but.....I wouldn't discount it...
Wheels
01-26-2006, 12:49 PM
I think you are missing the point of my question, how can both the price and the yield move in the same direction?
Dave
<><
The_Technician
01-26-2006, 12:49 PM
this morning.....at or about 10:24 to 10:53, vol jumped double from mornings entire volume, from 27000 to 64000 right at this mornings low....., again I speculate a position move....today and yesterday were the first two days I have ever noticed such large changes in vol occuring ....rather impulsive to me
vectorman
01-31-2006, 09:45 AM
F Fund direction?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
Wizard
01-31-2006, 09:54 AM
10 yr is sitting at 4.52% at the moment.
2 yr is sitting at 4.49% at the moment.
5 yr is sitting at 4.43% at the moment.
USD falling and falling hard in the deep month contracts.
Greenspan is handing Berknake a stick of lite dynamite.
He hoofed and poofed to get the long side to move up for over 2 years and failed.
Good luck trying to sell the 150B of debt left to be sold in this quarter. :eek:
The_Technician
02-01-2006, 10:14 AM
we're to get a poor performance out of the F fund .....for a period....I firmly believe that the inflation is not being properly reported therefore interest rates will be going up until the consumer runs out of money....
Consumer spending is going up not from just buying more products, but because everything is costing more.....in effect due to inflationary pressure....(have you bought a 2x4 lately???)
I think I would apply a more sudden adjustment to the rate increases to quickly head off inflationary practices by corps and individual contractors....this slight increase that Greenspud has initiated isn't sudden enough to properly keep inflation in check.....
nnuut
02-17-2006, 10:15 AM
"F" fund up .38% at 11:15 EST. :eek: Not a good sign for indices!!:eek: :eek: Down Boy, Down Boy, get outa here!
oldschool
02-17-2006, 12:34 PM
F fund up even more so far....
Might get .05 today? Maybe this week we'll have seen the low and high for its near term trading range...
nnuut
02-17-2006, 01:15 PM
It's about time the "F" fund paid SOMETHING!! Every time I DONATE to the "F" it's just that a DONATION.:mad:
I've been waiting for this dog of a fund to pay off for over a month now (should've sold as soon as it cleared $10.70 a few weeks ago). Patience... :p
nnuut
02-18-2006, 10:04 AM
That's why they named it the "F" fund, kinda like the "F" Chord when playing guitar, hard to do but worth it when you need it!! :rolleyes:
vectorman
02-26-2006, 07:09 PM
May be time for the F fund to start up.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
oldschool
03-03-2006, 07:13 AM
Today's WSJ has article titled "Forecast for Overseas Rates Pushes U.S. Yields Upwards" - suggesting as European Central Bank just raised rates (and Bank of Japan expected to start same soon), U.S. rates will have to track upwards to keep current levels of foreign holding of U.S. debt.
If correct, F fund won't like it. U.S. housing won't like it either.
Wizard
03-03-2006, 07:25 AM
Looks like interest rates world wide are going to explode.
Just look at gold and silver this week.
Something is afoot.
:)
oldschool
03-03-2006, 07:53 AM
More likely they'll just start creeping up everywhere. At least it will eventually fix that inverted yield curve...
Wizard
03-03-2006, 08:01 AM
Did you see the bond market in Japan last night?
That was not creeping. That was a blood bath.
sugarandspice
03-08-2006, 04:23 PM
Does anyone have an explanation for why we who were in the F fund yesterday somehow got "F"ed on our investment? I can't figure it out.
FundSurfer
03-08-2006, 05:09 PM
I noticed it, but have not followed the fund that closely to know the in's and out's.
I normally don't play the (F), but I believe it's due for some gains.
Do any "players" agree???
mlk_man
03-30-2006, 12:34 PM
Dat's what I thought yesterday about today!! :mad:
2 and 5 year notes settle tomorrow. Not sure how this effects the F fund.
Dat's what I thought yesterday about today!! :mad:
2 and 5 year notes settle tomorrow. Not sure how this effects the F fund.
Use your "contrarian" voice... and do the opposite of what you THINK should be done.;)
:D
mlk_man
03-30-2006, 12:43 PM
I think they need to make an adjustment up on the F fund today.
If you wish it, it will be.........
If you wish it, it will be.........
If you wish it, it will be.........
If you wish it, it will be.........
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y216/mlk_man/Smileys%20Bubbles/GOOF_1115.gif
mlk_man
03-30-2006, 01:28 PM
Everytime I look at the AGG it goes lower and lower...........starting to depress me.................:sick:
Pilgrim
03-31-2006, 08:35 AM
I can imagine the response when I say that "I don't quite understand the F fund."
If I look at the historical charts, AGG closed yesterday near its historical low at 98.75 while the F fund was at 10.60. The AGG seems (judging from low res chart) to have peaked around Feb 2004 at better than 104, while the F fund during this time was doing about 10.15. In exactly what sense does the F fund "track" the AGG???
tsptalk
03-31-2006, 09:06 AM
It looks like the AGG started in Oct 03. Not quite at all times lows...
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/agg1.gif
Pilgrim
03-31-2006, 01:11 PM
Interesting graph. If you use the YAHOO graph for TSP funds that we link to from the TSPTALK site and select 5 years, it clearly shows the minimum in 2004 at about 99 rather than the 96 you have above. The YAHOO graph also puts the all time maximum at 104 in the same year rather than 101.5 What can we believe if stock services vary so much??
tsptalk
03-31-2006, 01:22 PM
Interesting. Barchart.com shows what Yahoo does ...
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&org=stk&sym=AGG&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv
... but the decision point chart that I posted seems to be closer to what the F fund actually did. I'm not sure. Maybe we need to go straight to the source at Lehman.
The_Technician
04-04-2006, 07:12 AM
I'm getting data that indicates its at a bottom....looking for some gains until possibly Jun......I just got into it again.....100%
Pilgrim
04-04-2006, 12:34 PM
From Marketwatch.com on 4/4/2006:
"The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was up 2/32 at 97-7/32 to 4.857%. On Monday the benchmark yield briefly topped 4.9% amid heavy selling. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lift the federal-funds rate to 5% at its May meeting, and investors are likely to send the benchmark yields up to that level in advance of the meeting."
If it plays out this way, prices must drop, so it would seem that the F-fund will track downward prior to the upcoming meeting.
The_Technician
04-04-2006, 01:21 PM
From Marketwatch.com on 4/4/2006:
"The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was up 2/32 at 97-7/32 to 4.857%. On Monday the benchmark yield briefly topped 4.9% amid heavy selling. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lift the federal-funds rate to 5% at its May meeting, and investors are likely to send the benchmark yields up to that level in advance of the meeting."
If it plays out this way, prices must drop, so it would seem that the F-fund will track downward prior to the upcoming meeting.
Yeah, I saw the news....expecting some rebound at the moment and then see if the Feds make that move....the F fund has made some low levels in various data that haven't been seen in a while....
biggdog1
04-05-2006, 01:05 AM
I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would be in the F-Fund right now. With the Fed still raising int. rates and the dollar going up/down, it's hard to rationalize buying into this fund for me. With small caps and the foreign markets still holding gains for now why not buy in even though shares are high priced. Just my opinion !
The_Technician
04-05-2006, 08:48 AM
See article on inflation, bonds, dollar, and rate hikes expectations
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/05/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/05/news/economy/fed_hoenig.reut/index.htm
F fund will be doing what here...???:nuts:
Honestly, I think they mean that inflation will be contained because they will stop the printing presses that are printing dollars....they can on do so much before running us under u know....
vectorman
04-10-2006, 08:48 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
" The 10-day relative strength index, a gauge of momentum, for 10-year securities was at 24.2 today. A level below 30 or above 70 suggests the price may change direction. Treasuries rallied after the reading fell below 30 on March 6 and 13. "
SkyPilot
04-10-2006, 09:14 AM
As long as interest rates go up, I don't think the F fund will show much of a gain.
vectorman
04-10-2006, 09:53 AM
As long as interest rates go up, I don't think the F fund will show much of a gain.
I agree, as much as I dislike the F fund, even today the bonds yields are down and prices are up, but the AGG is showing red ( as of 11 est ) that doesn't make sense. The AGG seems to be bouncing off some support at 98.06 ( looking back 3 months), and even though the AGG is showing red today; the 2 , 5, 10, and 30 year bond yields are all down and the prices are up. http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/
The F fund may continue to trend down, but in the short term I look for it to climb back up to at least 99.00, using the AGG chart. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG
Sure it's not alot of money, but for those in the G fund, alittle in the F fund at this time may not be as risky while their waiting for the next penny, next monday. But once again the F is in a down trend ( only an up trend is your friend ), and this may only be a small bounce if the earning reports don't mess everything up.
vectorman
04-11-2006, 10:38 AM
" Technical Gauge
The notes climbed as a technical indicator traders use to predict price changes indicated they were poised to rally.
The 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of momentum, for 10-year securities fell as low as 27.5 on April 7. A level below 30 or above 70 suggests the price may change direction.
``The bond market got very oversold,'' said Richard Gilhooly, senior bond strategist in New York at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., one of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade directly with the Fed. ``To expect a technical bounce is reasonable.''
Treasury yields also fell as gasoline prices reached a six- month high, a trend with the potential to slow consumer spending on other items.
Each time the average retail price of gasoline has reached a new high in the past two years, 10-year yields have declined. In 2004, 10-year yields peaked at 4.90 percent in June and then rallied to 4 percent by October after gasoline climbed to $2.10 a gallon in late May. The average retail price of gasoline was $2.73 as of April 10, the highest since October, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html
The_Technician
04-19-2006, 03:02 PM
I noticed today that there was a doubling of volume on the AGG in 20 or 25 minutes around noon today......:sick: :blink: :worried: :embarrest:
The_Technician
04-20-2006, 06:59 AM
Further review of the F fund indicates that the accumulation of the AGG has increased by over 10% in the positive direction....a definite change of direction since Feb of this year.....
could be a future for the F yet.....
vectorman
04-20-2006, 09:58 AM
Further review of the F fund indicates that the accumulation of the AGG has increased by over 10% in the positive direction....a definite change of direction since Feb of this year.....
could be a future for the F yet.....
Thanks for the info Tech.
vectorman
04-20-2006, 10:37 AM
Robo suppilied this link in another post. Pretty interesting
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B24C5FE8D-281D-4DA4-9ED2-4A9535A5C9E4%7D&link=&keyword=go
The_Technician
04-20-2006, 11:10 AM
Received another large vol on the AGG this morning.....at least 3 times the morning vol in 30 minutes.....approx at 98.05 on the AGG....could be a buy point......
Two days in a row that this large vol trading has occured.....I ponder if they are getting ready for a market drop overall and are in acquisition mode for bonds and such....
vectorman
04-24-2006, 09:24 AM
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/24/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm
The_Technician
04-24-2006, 10:24 AM
Another good'un....
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/23/markets/sun_lookahead/index.htm
:notrust:
vectorman
04-24-2006, 09:22 PM
Treasuries May Rise Before Report Showing Oil Costs Are Denting Confidence
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries may advance for a third day before a report today that is forecast to show consumer confidence declined this month amid higher gasoline prices and interest rates.
Ten-year notes are poised for the longest run of gains since February on concern rising energy costs will curb spending and companies' profit in the U.S., the world's largest oil importer. Demand for debt may reduce borrowing costs for the government as it sells $47 billion of notes this week.
``Oil prices above $70 will hurt consumer confidence,'' said Lee Boon Keng, a market strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, Southeast Asia's biggest lender. ``The slowdown will happen in the second half. Our trajectory is for lower yields.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.98 percent at 9:53 a.m. in Singapore, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP.
The price of the 4 1/2 percent note due in February 2016 rose 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 96 11/32. The 10-year yield may fall to 4.7 percent by the end of the year, Lee said.
The Conference Board's index probably fell to 106.2 from 107.2 in March, according to the median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The March figure was the highest since May 2002.
Crude oil futures reached a record $75.35 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contracts traded at $73.12 today, 20 percent higher than at the start of the year.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Shamim Adam in Singapore sadam2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 24, 2006 21:55 EDT
The_Technician
04-25-2006, 07:16 AM
F Fund made it across a mid term average, the trend is up when this happens when the fund itself has been in this low of a trough....considering that the fuelies will dampen the economy, I expect interest rate increases to cease therefore "fueling" the F fund....expecting some major moves upward for a while...... so get your transfer button ready towards the F fund!!!:)
Hey Birchy, maybe we can catch the other funds for short bursts at the right time in between things.....:cool:
Pilgrim
04-25-2006, 07:45 AM
We have talked a lot on this board about "fair valuation" with respect to the I-fund. Is there something similar going on with the F fund?? Yesterday AGG was up 0.377% but F fund was up 0.19%, almost exactly half of the index gain. The arguments used in the I Fund case about currency moves after market close don't seem to apply. Anybody got an idea of what is going on??
vectorman
04-25-2006, 10:11 AM
We have talked a lot on this board about "fair valuation" with respect to the I-fund. Is there something similar going on with the F fund?? Yesterday AGG was up 0.377% but F fund was up 0.19%, almost exactly half of the index gain. The arguments used in the I Fund case about currency moves after market close don't seem to apply. Anybody got an idea of what is going on??
I first noticed the adjustments alittle over a month ago. I don't know if you can call it Fair Valuation, but there is some adjustments being made on certain days.:confused:
sugarandspice
04-25-2006, 04:37 PM
I noticied the same thing at the same time but I have also noticied it happening in the other direction. Today was down hard but the 10 yr was up.
What will happen?
nnuut
04-25-2006, 08:53 PM
Why you think they call it "The "F" Fund"?:nuts:
from: http://tinyurl.com/ofrwg ( on today.reuters.com)
"Financial markets widely expect the Fed to raise rates yet again at its upcoming policy meeting on May 10, but are closely divided on whether another increase will follow at the subsequent meeting in late June. They will be eyeing Bernanke's testimony closely for clues on the Fed's intentions."
Given that this article is correct (maybe a big "if"):
My question: if everyone knows there will be an interest rate increase again in May (even if there is an expected decrease in June), doesn't that mean the F Fund will take a hit with the announcement by Bernanke tomorrow?
tsptalk
04-26-2006, 02:07 PM
My question: if everyone knows there will be an interest rate increase again in May (even if there is an expected decrease in June), doesn't that mean the F Fund will take a hit with the announcement by Bernanke tomorrow?
Sell the rumor, buy the news?
The_Technician
04-26-2006, 02:26 PM
We should be experiencing another down draft for a short period due to the Feds......whether or not it drops twice is to be determined....but overall, the F could start on it trek upwards soon....so we should expect temporary dissatisfaction with a longer term relief.....:o
Pilgrim
04-27-2006, 12:17 PM
Got all my money in F fund today. AGG is holding steady at about 0.25 %. Anybody care to predict what the TSP Gods will do as far as "adjusting" that??
Pilgrim
05-03-2006, 10:40 AM
From Marketwatch.com today:
Earlier the Treasury Department said it plans to offer $34 billion in securities next week to refund federal debt and pay down about $25.9 billion... Recent Treasury auctions have met with a lackluster response, and there are concerns about excess supply.
New data this week from J.P. Morgan showed that rising numbers of U.S. investors are shorting Treasurys, betting that their prices will fall.
In addition, last week's Treasury auctions attracted weak levels of indirect bids, the carefully watched category that includes foreign central banks.
How low can it go??
Brett
05-04-2006, 06:36 AM
Some of you guys are sold on the F fund rising up from the dead. I can't help but be curious and give it a look, but come to the conclusion with its continued decline, to wait until it starts on an upturn. With the summer doldrums ahead, it may be the fund to be in, but until it proves itself, I'm going to just watch instead.
I agree with you Brett, F fund doesn't look that great. Everytime I try the F fund, I lose. Don't understand the interest others have in this fund. I'm new and don't have any knowledge about the history of the F fund. Plan to wait until it has some better positive indications that it is likely to give some decent returns though that will probably be when it is too late.
Timmie-O
05-04-2006, 10:54 PM
:confused: "I agree with you Brett, F fund doesn't look that great. Everytime I try the F fund, I lose. Don't understand the interest others have in this fund. I'm new and don't have any knowledge about the history of the F fund. Plan to wait until it has some better positive indications that it is likely to give some decent returns though that will probably be when it is too late.
The last three years the G fund has beat the F fund. Before then, the F fund had some good years. I lowered my F fund account from 5% to 2% effective Friday, tomorrow. Judging when to increase holdings in this fund will be hard. If anyone has clues, please post them here.
Bonds vs Interest Rates
http://stocks.about.com/od/understandingstocks/a/Bondint111004.htm
nnuut
05-05-2006, 09:00 AM
How about that "F" fund! Up .38% so far this morning.:nuts:
Spartan
05-05-2006, 10:03 AM
Posted an article in "Playing the I fund" about rate hikes.
The F fund looks to be turning around as of today. There is rising inflation pressures coupled with a slowing economy. The F fund will thrive, most likely outperform the S fund due to a "stagflation" setting in.
jwlane
05-05-2006, 09:41 PM
I'm new and don't have any knowledge about the history of the F fund.One only needs to understand the differences between the bond market vs. the stock market to know the history of the F fund. As long as interest rates remain low, the F fund will suck.
The F fund will thrive, most likely outperform the S fund due to a "stagflation" setting in.Don't hold your breath.
FUTURESTRADER
05-06-2006, 09:35 AM
:confused: "I agree with you Brett, F fund doesn't look that great. Everytime I try the F fund, I lose. Don't understand the interest others have in this fund. I'm new and don't have any knowledge about the history of the F fund. Plan to wait until it has some better positive indications that it is likely to give some decent returns though that will probably be when it is too late.
The last three years the G fund has beat the F fund. Before then, the F fund had some good years. I lowered my F fund account from 5% to 2% effective Friday, tomorrow. Judging when to increase holdings in this fund will be hard. If anyone has clues, please post them here.
Timmie,
I said before, the F fund, based on (AGG) must show 2 higher/lower closes above/below the 20 day ema (exponential moving average) before I get interested. Short F fund since 1/26/06. Even when it trends up above 20 ema, the C, S and the I have to be trending down. I like 2 closes above/below 50 ema for the equities. Backtest ema's for your own risk tolerance, and throw in some consideration of fundamentals, sentiment, geopolitical, news, and other 'noise' if u like, or have the time.
SkyPilot
05-06-2006, 09:41 AM
Unless we go into another recession, the F fund holds little promise. And even then, is it worth the risk over the safe harbor of the G in those circumstances? Maybe... :blink:
FUTURESTRADER
05-06-2006, 09:46 AM
Unless we go into another recession, the F fund holds little promise. And even then, is it worth the risk over the safe harbor of the G in those circumstances? Maybe... :blink:
20 day ema on agg vs. 4-5 day guarantee of the G fund?
Brett
05-18-2006, 06:23 AM
I jumped into the 50% position of the F-fund effective today, but made on Tuesday afternoon. I would have thought that with the I/C/S funds sinking, F would have shown a rally--but it hasn't, but for the G-fund, all funds have gone down. I may decide this morning to put F-funds with my G for 100% to see what the markets decide to do. I think the coming weeks may be VERY volatile, too volatile for us to quickly respond with trading.
davtrader
05-22-2006, 02:48 PM
Just my take..Completed 5 waves down
with extended 5th(wave 1+wave 3=wave 5),
I will watch the form of waves as I think they will travel towards AGG 99.60.
The_Technician
05-22-2006, 02:56 PM
The F fund looks to have taken that drop I mentioned last month.....looking for it to correct a little over the next several days and then take it up from there.....
sugarandspice
05-22-2006, 03:30 PM
The F fund looks to have taken that drop I mentioned last month.....looking for it to correct a little over the next several days and then take it up from there.....
It's at its highest point since April 6th! You mentioned both ways last month for the F fund. So what do you mean by the above?
The_Technician
05-23-2006, 06:42 AM
It's at its highest point since April 6th! You mentioned both ways last month for the F fund. So what do you mean by the above?
Well I mentioned it would drop somemore on the 26th of April....we went through that and now we should be on the road up to better returns....;)
Who am I talking with this morning by the way.....Sugar or Spice.....???
Pilgrim
05-24-2006, 07:20 AM
Bond prices rallied in the last half hour yesterday but AGG dropped sharply at the end, F-fund ending up negative. Anyone know why they moved in opposite directions??
Does F "owe" us today?
mlk_man
05-24-2006, 07:41 AM
Bond prices rallied in the last half hour yesterday but AGG dropped sharply at the end, F-fund ending up negative. Anyone know why they moved in opposite directions??
Does F "owe" us today?
Pilgrim, I don't see a rally late yesterday?
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=AGG
Pilgrim
05-24-2006, 07:57 AM
Pilgrim, I don't see a rally late yesterday?
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=AGG
Bond prices rallied, AGG dropped. Ten year bond just opened up another 6/32.
mlk_man
05-24-2006, 08:02 AM
Ahh, sorry, misread your post. Let's hope they do "owe" us then. :D
The_Technician
05-31-2006, 07:05 AM
F fund seems to be solidifying its position.....looking for a mediocre day or so and then it seems it could be on its road to better returns.....
qibovin
06-02-2006, 12:30 PM
F fund seems to be solidifying its position.....looking for a mediocre day or so and then it seems it could be on its road to better returns.....
Is that what's going on today? Why? Was there a trigger? Is this a little spike or with this sort of thing last?
tsptalk
06-02-2006, 12:46 PM
Is that what's going on today? Why? Was there a trigger? Is this a little spike or with this sort of thing last?
The weak jobs report gave the bond market hope for a pause in interest rates. Good for bonds.
The_Technician
06-05-2006, 08:05 AM
Last week I observed the AGG seemed to fluctuate around some stop loss snitching.....yep, thats when knowledgeable investors drop the price to snitch massive stop losses priced lower than going rates right before a jump in the equity.....happened numerous times last week...
Nice return Friday...I wouldn't discount a further jump in the AGG over the next year at this point......
The_Technician
06-06-2006, 11:20 AM
I don't think the F fund is going to give any up if any of ya are looking for a break to jump in.........she's looking strong....
AllexBancs
06-08-2006, 11:13 AM
This is the last fund I want 2 invest in when Mr. B is still raising rates. You are not getting a good risk reward situation here IMHO.
AB
tsptalk
06-08-2006, 11:14 AM
Hi Allex! Long time no see. Hope all is well.
Tom
AllexBancs
06-08-2006, 11:19 AM
Thanks Tom. All is well here. I haven't been to the site in ages. Looks great and many many more members. Keep up the good work. Goo luck with the allocation you went with today.
Pilgrim
06-14-2006, 10:53 AM
A lot of people seem to think that the F fund is going to be the place to be for a while, but consider this:
A month or so ago, a few people on this board pointed out that bond yields tend to rise to the fed funds rate, and then move up and down around that number. Sure enough, the Fed went to 5% and bond yields are now cycling up and down around that number. A move by the Fed to 5.25% this month is now a virtual certainty. Bond yields will follow and bond prices sink to a new level. A month from now we will be used to bond rates hovering around 5.25% and bond price levels that are lower than today.
Right now seems to be a very bad time to go F fund, the pressure is to push bond prices down and yields up. Other than short term plays, I think the F fund will be bad until the new equilibrium is reached, possibly a few weeks from now.
nnuut
06-14-2006, 04:11 PM
You are a WISE MAN! I'm NOT!! I Hate the "F" fund, and it doesn't like me!:blink:
FUTURESTRADER
06-14-2006, 04:28 PM
A lot of people seem to think that the F fund is going to be the place to be for a while, but consider this:
A month or so ago, a few people on this board pointed out that bond yields tend to rise to the fed funds rate, and then move up and down around that number. Sure enough, the Fed went to 5% and bond yields are now cycling up and down around that number. A move by the Fed to 5.25% this month is now a virtual certainty. Bond yields will follow and bond prices sink to a new level. A month from now we will be used to bond rates hovering around 5.25% and bond price levels that are lower than today.
Right now seems to be a very bad time to go F fund, the pressure is to push bond prices down and yields up. Other than short term plays, I think the F fund will be bad until the new equilibrium is reached, possibly a few weeks from now.
I agree. Watch the 10 yr yield
tsptalk
06-14-2006, 04:57 PM
Just to play devil's advocate here, the bond market, like the stock market, is a forward looking indicator. They price in future rate hikes before the Fed moves. If there is any chance the Fed will pause or even lower, the bond market will tell us first. The June hike is almost completely priced into bonds already.
FUTURESTRADER
06-14-2006, 08:58 PM
damn, if you're right Tom, and I think u are, looks like the F fund is looking for 5.5 at least on 10 yr...down .05 today!...I don't think I've seen that much of a delta before...+ or -???
Pilgrim
06-22-2006, 09:53 AM
A lot of people seem to think that the F fund is going to be the place to be for a while, but consider this:
A month or so ago, a few people on this board pointed out that bond yields tend to rise to the fed funds rate, and then move up and down around that number. Sure enough, the Fed went to 5% and bond yields are now cycling up and down around that number. A move by the Fed to 5.25% this month is now a virtual certainty. Bond yields will follow and bond prices sink to a new level. A month from now we will be used to bond rates hovering around 5.25% and bond price levels that are lower than today.
Right now seems to be a very bad time to go F fund, the pressure is to push bond prices down and yields up. Other than short term plays, I think the F fund will be bad until the new equilibrium is reached, possibly a few weeks from now.
Natuarally, I ignored my own advice, put some into the F-fund, and am losing it today! Things will not get better:
Last Update: 10:40 AM ET Jun 22, 2006 (excerpts)
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices drifted lower Thursday morning, pushing yields higher, as traders positioned for a widely expected increase in the fed funds rate next week to the 5.25% level.
Because the Fed is widely expected to lift the overnight rate to 5.25%, traders are sending prices lower and pushing yields up to that level ahead of the event.
Barclays Capital Economists Dean Maki, Bulent Baygun and Michael Pond now are projecting that the fed funds rate will hit 6% by the end of the year. Previously, the three economists had expected the fed funds rate to stall at 5.5% after the August meeting.
"The change is driven by recent upward revisions to our core consumer inflation forecast and by our view of the Fed's likely reaction to the combination of those higher core inflation figures and continued robust growth," the economists said in a note to clients Thursday.
They also predicted long-term rates will move higher and that the yield curve will invert further this year.
"We have become less convinced that the FOMC will be comfortable keeping rates at 5.5% after August as growth remains strong and core inflation continues to move higher," they said.
nnuut
06-22-2006, 11:11 AM
How about that "F" fund! -.45 right now!:mad:
FUTURESTRADER
06-22-2006, 11:17 AM
Aren't 'diversification' and L funds wonderful ;). I'd say the few minutes a day to guide your portfolio are worth it.
FUTURESTRADER
06-23-2006, 10:08 AM
10 yr yield intraday high 5.23%, just in time for that .25 rate hike, funny how that works ;). F fund falling in inverse lock step. 10 yr rate rises, u.s. dollar rises, I fund falls. Question is are we going to 5.5%, continuing pressure on F F fund and and to a lesser extent, I fund?
Pilgrim
06-26-2006, 10:09 AM
Bonds down again!! Believe it or not, CNN reports investors are beginning to price in the possibility or a greater than 25 basis point increase. Is this just speculation and a little fear, or a case of Tom's "the market knows before we do."
CNN Money - June 26 2006: 10:12 AM EDT
"Treasury prices slipped as investors speculated that the central bank may raise interest rates more than a quarter percentage point to combat inflation and that it could raise rates again at its August meeting."
Pilgrim
06-27-2006, 08:26 AM
After nine straight declining sessions, bonds opened sharply up today. Those of you sitting in the F fund will finally see some green!
nnuut
06-27-2006, 09:39 AM
How about that"F" fund, ouhweeeee! http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.1328 (0.14%) @ 10:40AM
Pilgrim
06-27-2006, 10:51 AM
How about that"F" fund, ouhweeeee! http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.1328 (0.14%) @ 10:40AM
It will be interesting to see what this translates to with share price. The pattern seems to be that TSP "mitigates" either gain or loss, i.e. the share price usually does not move as far as the AGG index, either up or down. If the pattern holds, for example, a gain of 0.14% in AGG would result in less than 0.1% gain in share price.
This effect has been pointed out many times on this board. As far as I know, no one has put forward a plausible explanation.
Pilgrim
06-28-2006, 08:16 AM
It will be interesting to see what this translates to with share price. The pattern seems to be that TSP "mitigates" either gain or loss, i.e. the share price usually does not move as far as the AGG index, either up or down. If the pattern holds, for example, a gain of 0.14% in AGG would result in less than 0.1% gain in share price.
This effect has been pointed out many times on this board. As far as I know, no one has put forward a plausible explanation.
True to form. AGG up 0.28% and F fund up 0.19%. WHY!!
Bonds down this morning, F fund may give up most or all of yesterdays gains. We'll see if the same behavior shows up on the downside.
Pilgrim
06-29-2006, 04:13 PM
AGG was up 0.35% today. If I understand what TSP is doing, they will pay three cents, or 0.28%. We'll see.
Pilgrim
06-29-2006, 06:22 PM
AGG was up 0.35% today. If I understand what TSP is doing, they will pay three cents, or 0.28%. We'll see.
Nope, still don't have it. AGG up 0.3501% which should give an F fund price of 10.57689. I expected it to be rounded down to 10.57, but they took away another penny. I don't have a clue.
fabijo
08-03-2006, 03:29 PM
Man, the F Fund ain't stopping. It should be up another penny or two today.
Lehman's up +.11% today.
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