Poll: Was Tom Tempted Today????

[GTO1970]

After I missed the deadline to get back in C,F, & I yesterday, I watch the markets early this morning and seeing the down turn I gambled and made the jump back in! Not Fully, I am easing ineffective Wednesday 20 G, 20 F, 30 C, 20 S & 10 I, and will adjust total back into stocks fully as I see pull backs take place.

GTO;)

[tsptalk]

Not yet, particularly before the deadline when the Dow was only down about 30 or 40. The indicators are not quite there yet. Today will help.

[tsptalk]

That housing market stat I talked about in todays' (4/13/04) comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_4_13_04.html)has me spooked some. I don't want to miss the next rally because of it but I will take it into consideration. Because of this potential drop, I'd like to see all the ducks in a row before I get in. In particular the overbought/oversold indicator, the ARMS 10 day moving average, the investment sentiment indicators and possibly the put/call ratios.

I don't want to alarm anyone.:end: I just don't want to give away my measly 1.7% gain I have this year in one day. I see the S fund is down about that much today, but that is nothing for that fundafter it's recent run up. If I had caught some of those S fund gains in last several days, I may be thinking differently. I don't have a cushion to soften a blow.

I jumped back in today 50/50 C&S. I was sitting 100% G since my move on 8 April from50/50 C&S. I jumped out with the S&P at 1139 Cprice at $11.99 Sprice at $13.36. When I checked today about 1130 Eastern the S&P was down 5 points since yesterday and all indicators looked like the chances of a late rally were slim.

At the end of the day the S&Pclosed at1129.44. Tomorrow will be interesting however; I feel as if a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I would appreciate any comments on how this whole transaction affected my position. I appreciate all the knowledge that has been shared. I have learned something new each day and become much more aware of influences on the market. Thanks!

[tsptalk]

Hi Vet -
I'm not sure I understand the question - how this transactionaffected your position? Seems to me you were out of the market when it went down. Sounds like a good move to me. The decision to getin now remains to be seen. Obviously I am still out so the only way I like that right now is if you are sitting on good gains and can afford a little volatility.

Another down day, however,on Wednesday would get me very interested in getting at least something, if not all,in stocks.

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
Because of this potential drop, I'd like to see all the ducks in a row before I get in. In particular the overbought/oversold indicator, the ARMS 10 day moving average, the investment sentiment indicators and possibly the put/call ratios.

We had one of those indicators come through. The NYSE overbought/oversold (ob/os) indicator dipped deeply into oversold territory. This does not mean we have seen the bottom but we are closer to a buy signal. The Nasdaq ob/os indicator did not quite get as oversold. I am consideringa transfer Wednesday to get something into the C fund for Thursday. I'm not going to commit to that just yet so stay tuned.

BTW, Intel's earnings came up a bit short but it is not triggering too much after hours selling.

[batteryride]

I WAS ON THE SIDELINES THE LAST FEW DAYS G-FUND.I-FUND 100%FROM 1-23-04 TO4-6-04 I GOT OUT JUST IN TIME AND I RECOVERED ALL MY LOSSES.THIS SITE HAS HELPED ME UNDERSTAND HOW THE STRONG DOLLAR EFFECTS THE I-FUND. WHEN THE DOLLAR GOES UP THE I FUND IS USUALLY DOWN EVEN WHEN THE U.K. AND JAPANESE MARKETS ARE STRONG. I GUESS THAT IS WHY THE I- FUND IS THE RISKIEST FUND THAT THE TSP OFFERS.TOM DO YOU THINK THAT PRESIDENT BUSH'S SPEECH TONIGHT WILL EFFECT THE MARKET?WELL I DO AND I JUST MADE A TRANSFER TO THE C-FUND 100% FOR THURSDAY 4 15-04.CONFIDENCE WILL BE UP AND MONEY WILL POUR INTO THE MARKET AND I THINK THE C- FUND IS THE FUND TO BE IN.JUST A HUNCH THURSDAY IS THE DAY.I MIGHT BE A DAY OR TWO OFF BUT I HAVE TO TAKE THE PLUNGE ANYWAY.DOES ANYBODY KNOW HOW THE STOCK MARKET WAS DOING DURING PRESIDENT BUSH'S FATHERS REELECTION?HOW DOES IT REACT TO PRESIDENTIAL SPEECHES?:^

[tsptalk]

batteryride wrote:
TOM DO YOU THINK THAT PRESIDENT BUSH'S SPEECH TONIGHT WILL EFFECT THE MARKET?WELL I DO AND I JUST MADE A TRANSFER TO THE C-FUND 100% FOR THURSDAY 4 15-04.CONFIDENCE WILL BE UP AND MONEY WILL POUR INTO THE MARKET AND I THINK THE C- FUND IS THE FUND TO BE IN.JUST A HUNCH THURSDAY IS THE DAY.I MIGHT BE A DAY OR TWO OFF BUT I HAVE TO TAKE THE PLUNGE ANYWAY.
After the Intel earnings, theS&P futures were slightly negative. After the president's speech they went slightly positive.Nothing too telling butleaning towardapositive bias. But you never know what will happen in the morning when the real trading begins.

[tsptalk]

Good chance I will make a move today. Check the allocation changes forum before the deadline for more info.

[JerBer]

Count me in :^!!

50% C

50% S

After hearing about that Englishman who bet his entire life savings on one roulette wheel spin, this almost seems insignificant !

JerBer

[tsptalk]

:l

[puertorico]

yesterday was down ,if today is down again

thats mean a sell out ?

[tsptalk]

Real bad day asthe reversalcollapsed. The Nasdaq down to the gap filled area and 50 day moving average.Will it stop there? More earnings reports after the close, including Texas Instruments, may help. Eventually the interest rate hike will have been factored in. The NYSE is more interest rate sensitive than the Nasdaq with the it's banks and REIT companies. When the NYSE stops falling we'll know the inevitable interest rate hike has been factored in.

[eukrate]

Asia is looking weak, so I fund will follow it down. I'm out of I, now 80%C 20%S. There's 10 minutes left to reallocate for Monday

[tsptalk]

What makes you think Asia is weak eukrate? Japan has pulled back 3% from a two year high. Seems like a good place to get back in?Did youread something about it recently or are you just going by this week's action?

Thanks,
Tom

[eukrate]

I've got acquaintences with Asian bank connections who don't like the outlook there...

[tsptalk]

Interesting! Do you have any acquaintences in Europe? :u

[eukrate]

Sorry to say, no. Just Hong Kong

[tsptalk]

From a technical analysis perspective, I agree Hong is lookingquite shaky, but Japan still looks fine. Since Japan makes up over 20% of EAFE and Hong Kong only 1.5% I am still very willing to play it. Is youracquaintance referring to both Hong Kong and Japan just Hong Kong or all Asian markets in general?

Thanks.

[eukrate]

Asia in general. I think the outlook is positive for Japan but only starting in 6 months from now. China is extreemly positive but more than a year away. Short term Asia considered poor risk. No opinion on Europe

[tsptalk]

Japan is up about 2% tonight. :) They sure like it when U.S. tech stocks are up.