Interfund Transfer 4/4/ for 4/5/05

[tsptalk]

This is the type of open I was looking for last week to get fully invested. Oh well. I'll use it to move more into the C and S funds. I am making an interfund transfer this morning going 60% C, 40% S fund. It will be effective 4/5 (or COB 4/4). I explainedmorein today's market comments.

We're seeing what the"emotional money" is doing in the first hour.I'll be very anxious to see what the "smart money" does in the last halfhour or so.

[riskybusiness]

Interfund transfer COB 4/4 made (100%G). I'm waiting for my .01 to kick in so I canstop losing my retirement money. Right now I might as well put it in the savings bank. I'll wait fora week...possibly two for the supposed "rally" to begin. I'm not seeing many good signs except that stocks have probably been oversold. I don't think we've bottomed out quite yet.Interest rates are expected to continue to goup, perhaps oil prices will be forgotten soon as winter is basically overwith now. Thereafter I will likely go with a moderate allocationto stocks. I just don't have a good feeling about the economy right now. Sounds rather basic but it's how I feel. In addition most of the rallies I have seen this year have been really short term. There isn't much cause for an extended rally from what I can see. So at this time I plan to sit on the sidelines for a short while.

[Spaf]

Risky.........Tom........ Yea where is the "smart money"? http://www.smileys.ws/sm/confused/00000003.gif

The G-fund is, is very comfortable! Maybe, by the P-SAR (on the S&P) there is a curve upward? The energy horseman has been on a rampage! Is he gone? I don't think so!

Dave did a risk vs rewards profile:

The risk/reward equation is illuminating. If the market goes up 10% on the year and you are 40% in the G-fund which pays 5%, you net (.4x5 + .6x10) = 8%. If the market goes down 10%, you net (.4x5 - .6x10) = -4%. You get 80% of the potential gain but avoid 60% of the potential loss.

If 60G then it works out to (.6x5 + .4x10) = 7%; or (.6x5 - .4x10) = -1%. You get 70% of the gain and avoid 90% of the loss.

[Thanks Dave!]

If the current technical data suggest a possible change in market direction (possible). Then to be on the safe side less than 40% should be in stocks for those with a near retirement date??????


Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[tsptalk]

I know this sentiment thing is a very tough thing to act upon. Sentiment is very bearish at bottoms. You guys are making good cases but that is the kind of talk that you hear just before a rally. We may very well go down lower over the next few months but I have to trust my indicators and anticipate some short term strength soon. The big drop may come just as we get comfortable with a newrally. When we are singing a morebullish tune. If oil continues to shoot up, all bets could be off however.

Also, as Spaf says, if you are retiring soon, you may not want to play my games. Better safe than sorry.

Just my opinion. I don't recommend anyone do what I do but you are welcome to watch :). The market really works your emotions over.

Good luck!
Tom

[Rod]

Hey Tom, your "Comment Editor" ishere again...:D

You may want to change the following:

That's all for today. Currently 60% C, 40% I fund. See you tomorrow.

_________________

Aren't you 60C and 40S?

[tsptalk]

Got it! Thanks Rod. You may have to refresh the page to seethe change.

[Spaf]

Without some coffee in the morning http://www.smileys.ws/sm/food/00000010.gif sometimes I can't even find the keyboard, much less see the letters!

Whats happening with the market? It isn't red this morning!

[mlk_man]

Spaf wrote:
Without some coffee in the morning http://www.smileys.ws/sm/food/00000010.gif sometimes I can't even find the keyboard, much less see the letters!

Whats happening with the market? It isn't red this morning!Not yet......................

[Mike]

Since I'm not going to pay any attention to the market for the remainder of the week, it's bound to take off. :P

[mlk_man]

Mike wrote:
Since I'm not going to pay any attention to the market for the remainder of the week, it's bound to take off. :PYou may not pay attention to it, but I bet you think about it...............:shock:

[Rod]

Yeah, since I lightened up more in (I) it's going to make some pennies today.:P

Always seems to happen that way. But hey,those gains and then somewill go out the windowthis week as the dollar gains strength.;)

God Bless:^

[CSI]

The markets have gone up the last two days on less volumn. One positive today compared to yesterday, we did not sell off at the close. The one thing that worries me the most is, there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines that is waiting to be invested somewhere. I'm not sure what it is waiting on,I hope not a lower low, but rather for earning reports to start coming in. If earnings are good I think we will see some of the side lined money move in, but if bad or netural we may test recent lows again before we see any movement of this money.

[tennisguy]

How high of a percentage does the c and s fund have to be in order for you to switch to the I fund the next day?

Would this be a good day?

Thanks

Tennisguy

[tsptalk]

Here is the old post (early 2004) of the strategy. I haven't used it much lately because of inconsistent results... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum6/2.html

[CSI]

Since you do not know how the US markets will finish the day by the 12 eastern time limit to make a switch it is hard to answer your question. Generally, if I think the US markets will finish the day up and the dollar will be down is when I try to time getting into the I fund and sometimes if just the dollar will be down. I wish there were a more scientific method, but there is not. I read a lot of comments and look at charts and try as best I can to make an educated guess. If you invest in the market for any period of time, you will realize that bucking what everyone else is saying and getting a little lucky generally will pay off, but in the end, it is still gambling. If you are one not to take chances then I would put 20% in each fund and sleep good at night and do not even look at what the market does as history has proven that being invested in stocks pays better dividends than most other investments over the long run.

[Spaf]

tennisguy wrote:
How high of a percentage does the c and s fund have to be in order for you to switch to the I fund the next day?

Would this be a good day?

Thanks

Tennisguy



I wouldn't recommend a %. Rather, read the charts: trends, RSI, CMF, MACD, and P-SAR. This will give multiple indicators. Then check the Fundamentals (economics). The technicals + fundamentals will give the best picture. And always check the weekly stats, cause the daily stats can cometimes lose the big picture.

Yes today should be a good day! However we have the horsemen of rates, inflation, and energy that can spoil any day. Sorry, none of us have a crystal ball,wish we did, but then again that would take all the fun out of it!

Rgds ;) Spaf

[mlk_man]

Spaf wrote:

Yes today should be a good day! However we have the horsemen of rates, inflation, and energy that can spoil any day. Sorry, none of us have a crystal ball,wish we did, but then again that would take all the fun out of it!

Rgds ;) SpafThanks for jinxing it Spaf, I'm in the G today.................:^

[Spaf]

What u doing there ? :?

[tennisguy]

Thanks guys. Still at the beginning of the learning curve, but I am reading allot of charts and news. Still a very big amateur though.:)

I figurethis is the time I can makemistakes (and hopefully learn from my mistakes)because 1 percent representsless then 20 dollars. I am going to give it a year. See if I can do better then a buy and hold person.

Even if I am a little bit lower then a buy and hold method I have learnedallot since I started my TSP account. The benefits outweigh the negatives. I know what’s going on in different countries, what’s happing to our dollar and economy news. At the very least I am more educated then the average Joe about what is going on. Before I just knew the top headline of the newspaper and thats it. Just my .02 cents.

Hope today stays green:^

Tennisguy

[mlk_man]

Spaf wrote:
What u doing there ? :?Needed a days rest! :shock:

[mlk_man]

tennisguy wrote:
Thanks guys. Still at the beginning of the learning curve, but I am reading allot of charts and news. Still a very big amateur though.:)

I figurethis is the time I can makemistakes (and hopefully learn from my mistakes)because 1 percent representsless then 20 dollars. I am going to give it a year. See if I can do better then a buy and hold person.

Even if I am a little bit lower then a buy and hold method I have learnedallot since I started my TSP account. The benefits outweigh the negatives. I know what’s going on in different countries, what’s happing to our dollar and economy news. At the very least I am more educated then the average Joe about what is going on. Before I just knew the top headline of the newspaper and thats it. Just my .02 cents.



It can get addictive TG, just think of it as a hobbie with long term benefits.....:^

Good luck to you,

M_M

[tsptalk]

The deeper I get into being on the wrong side, the closer I will be to eventually being on the right side. :)

This is looking a lot like July/August of last year. I just hope it doesn't turn into the spring of 1994. Ifit does, then the S&P 500 could hit 1124. Ouch! I don't know how that will play out but I have to stick with my indicators because they are emotionless, and I'm not.

That first sentence was a joke but there is some truth to it. Imissed a great opportunity to be out of the market while it is going down, but being a seller now is the mistake the herd, Joe Sixpack, emotional money, dumb money, whatever you want to call it, aregoing to make.

I always like to see is when the stock market makes the top story in your local news. Whether it is flying high or dropping like a rock,it is another sign of a reversal being very close at hand. I haven't checked yet but has it been on your local news yet? It was on the Drudge Report this afternoon as the top story, butit's the local news that is really the indicator.

[coolhand]

What kind of indicator wouldwe havewhen traders start to jump out of windows? :P

tsptalk wrote:
being a seller now is the mistake the herd, Joe Sixpack, emotional money, dumb money, whatever you want to call it, aregoing to make.

TOM, I VERY MUCH RESEMBLE YOUR NAME CALLING ! :@

tsptalk wrote:
This is looking a lot like July/August of last year. I just hope it doesn't turn into the spring of 1994. Ifit does, then the S&P 500 could hit 1124. Ouch! I don't know how that will play out but I have to stick with my indicators because they are emotionless, and I'm not.

Tom, the S&P500 ended today at 1142, dropping 38.6 points just this week. If we have another week like this week, we'll be at 1100 by next weekend. I think it'll drop A LOT lower than 1124. :shock:

coolhand wrote:
What kind of indicator wouldwe havewhen traders start to jump out of windows? :P

When the newspaper headlines are "HILLARY WINS IN FLORIDA AND OHIO"

Wait, no that's the investors. I don't know about the traders.

[tsptalk]

coolhand wrote:
What kind of indicator wouldwe havewhen traders start to jump out of windows? :P

Bet the farm. Also, sell your insurance company stocks and buy the glass company stocks. :D

[tsptalk]

greg wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
being a seller now is the mistake the herd, Joe Sixpack, emotional money, dumb money, whatever you want to call it, aregoing to make.

TOM, I VERY MUCH RESEMBLE YOUR NAME CALLING ! :@

Being out of the market this whole timeis one thing (a very good thing obviously). Selling now is another - Unless you can get back in on a dime, which we really can't in our TSP accounts.

[macdtrader]

Now is the time to protect your capital. Since July of 2004 we have had seven interest rate hikes.In May of 1999the Federal Reserve Bank began raising interest rates andeventually raised interest ratessix times. The stock market went up through most of that period, but started to collapse in March 2000 just after the sixth increase.

Goodluck to everyone.

[tsptalk]

Interest rates in 1999 were about doublewhat they are now, and that was before the rate hikes.

[billy]

:sI am very worried I want to sell. I made some money the last two weeks and now I've lost my gains and invested money. I'm trying to believe that the market will turn and go back up. very emotional AGHHHH

[Rod]

Hang in the Billy... your "pain" along with the rest of our's is a good indicator that the clouds are clearing.

God Bless:^

[puertorico]

whao I took it in the chin all week :?

or I stay or leave ? :?

I think now no have no choice
i have to stay :cool:

When I think I know the game !
They changes the rules ! :D

:Dwhatever:D

[tsptalk]

billy wrote:
:sI am very worried I want to sell. I made some money the last two weeks and now I've lost my gains and invested money. I'm trying to believe that the market will turn and go back up. very emotional AGHHHH
Welcome billy -
Things are always the worst at the bottom. Don't hang in stocks if it hurts too much. We don't want you losing sleep. Just realize what Rod said is true and you will likely be getting out at, or close to the bottom. You'd be OK if we don't get a "V" type bottom, but if we do you could miss a good bounce which compounds your pain.

billy wrote:
:sI am very worried I want to sell. I made some money the last two weeks and now I've lost my gains and invested money. I'm trying to believe that the market will turn and go back up. very emotional AGHHHHAt the very least, it must feel good to get some supportive words for your fears and advicefromthe board. http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y72/W_W/WW.gif

[pyriel]

billy wrote:
:sI am very worried I want to sell. I made some money the last two weeks and now I've lost my gains and invested money. I'm trying to believe that the market will turn and go back up. very emotional AGHHHHBilly you are not alone... Last week had been the easiest week for me to track since 95% of us committed ourselves too early and are now fully exposed to stox. Not alot of movement at all and the damage iwa staggering. As for me, I am now 5% down since the beginning of the year. 4.5% of it came down within 1 1/2 week. I'm glad i'm a tracker because I feel a little bit more comfortable knowing that I am not alone.:^

[puertorico]

Thinking to put all in i-fund tomorrow

:?just one day all in I fund."still thinking about it " :D

[smine]

PR: I'm 65% in I now and wondering whether to bail or not......Rod is heavy in to I fund also. What's your take on this?

[CSI]

The I fund is down less from its high than the C&S fund since makingtheir new highs this yr - 5.4% compaired to theC - 6.5% andS - 7.7%. Where the I fund goes will depend on what comesout of theFed's Beige Book report on Wed. afternoon. If the feds indicate that they may be hesitant on raising rates again in May, the I fund should make some gains. I like playing the I fund as it has really given me the most returns in the past. If I put any in the I this week it will be tomorrow after I have time to consider what I think might transpire in the market place before the deadline tomorrow.

[puertorico]

tomorrow will be 50-i 20-s 30-c
I hope & feeling that tuesday the dollar will slowdown
and i-fund will be greennnnnnnn :Djust a feeling !

good luck smine a rod .... where is medlad ?great
fan of the i-fund ... :D

[cowboy]

Here is my .02 on the I fund guys. If the US markets stay green or close to positive today they may gain on the I fund tomorrow my thought is the I fund is going to drop below $15.00 prior to going up. Basically I figure to gain back my losses playing the I but it is all in the timing of the I against the C & S funds. I think tomorrow may be the day.

[CSI]

EAFE closed overseas down 1.683 on dollar coversion. I fund should be down to around 14.85 per share, I think, but you never know for sure.

[cowboy]

Exactly why I stayed out of it today, CSI. Tomorrow the I fund may open down and you would be purchasing the close which is why I would wait on it. I have been caught on this enough to realize this and patience may pay off but we can never know for sure. If the market trends down again tomorrow then there is no use moving as I fundwill continue to trend with it. I think the US markets have to move first prior to the international making any type of attempt. This is me just thinking out loud. For those in it I would just set tight for those thinking about jumping in it, wait, but if the I did drop today down to 15.85 like CSI says, we may have missed the play on it.

[macdtrader]

Tom,

Your strategy was on target today. What % return do you expect using the 60% C and 40% S strategy? Do you have any trailing stop losses? Thanksfor the information.

CSI wrote:
EAFE closed overseas down 1.683 on dollar coversion. I fund should be down to around 14.85 per share, I think, but you never know for sure.The I-Fund closed at 15.03, that is down 0.988%.

[Rod]

smine wrote:
PR: I'm 65% in I now and wondering whether to bail or not......Rod is heavy in to I fund also. What's your take on this?
I got in 1 day too early. Today wasn't good. I'm sure it was a reaction to Friday's sell-off. But tommorrow is already shaping up nicely with the Nikkei UP .71%. Let's hope she holds. The euro, pound, and yen are still gaining strength against the dollar, so I'm staying put unless they begin to lose strength.

God Bless:^

[smine]

Thank God! I just took a look at the world market and saw the beginnings of a turn around. That's good 'cause today cost me another hit. Now to decide to hold em or fold em! Rod and PR advise on your strategy before the deadline. Let's hang in there!:^

[Rod]

smine wrote:
Thank God! I just took a look at the world market and saw the beginnings of a turn around. That's good 'cause today cost me another hit. Now to decide to hold em or fold em! Rod and PR advise on your strategy before the deadline. Let's hang in there!:^
As long as the euro, pound, and yen remain strong I'm holding.

I learned from last month- a 1 day drop of .02 on the euro or pound OR a 2 day drop of .01 each day, then I'm bailing.

As of this post:

Pound= 1.9044

Euro= 1.3025

YEN= 0.00932

Those are good numbers. Keep an eye on them.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/rates.asp

God Bless:^

[smine]

:)Looking good!!! Just tell me when you're bailing otherwise I'm 65% I and 35% G. I may consider moving that 35% to F.

[puertorico]

50-i 20-s 30-c today tuesday

I will stay same 1 more day wednesday 50-i 20-s 30-c

& gonna move for thursday will be 40-c 40-s i-20 :D:^



I "just caution" on I-FUN later on the week because the euro
weakenes & strong dollarUSplans to keep up this year ... :D

[Rod]

smine wrote:
:)Looking good!!! Just tell me when you're bailing otherwise I'm 65% I and 35% G. I may consider moving that 35% to F.
I'll post it in my account thread.:^

Remember, I'm but only a amateur... so if you feel you need to bail before I do, then bail!:D

[smine]

Understood. Frankly you have always had a finger on the pulse. No pressure; I do what's best for me when I follow my own thoughts.

[tennisguy]

smine wrote:

Understood. Frankly you have always had a finger on the pulse. No pressure; I do what's best for me when I follow my own thoughts.
I agree I also follow alot of what Rod has to say. But I also know no one is always right so we have to make our own desions Right now I am 40% in the I fund. I really enjoyed today.
Tennisguy

[Rod]

tennisguy wrote:
smine wrote:

Understood. Frankly you have always had a finger on the pulse. No pressure; I do what's best for me when I follow my own thoughts.
I agree I also follow alot of what Rod has to say. But I also know no one is always right so we have to make our own desions Right now I am 40% in the I fund. I really enjoyed today.
Tennisguy
Stand on your toes... the Nikkei is in the red, but not too much. I've seen it in the red with the (I)Fund gaining for the day.

Continue to keep an eye on the EPY (euro, pound, yen).

God Bless:^

[Rod]

The Nikkei finished in the green- .21%:^

[cowboy]

LOL!:DYou guys remind me when some cowboys thought they would round up the chickens to get a count. After the day was done Ma went out and closed the coop after dark when they were roosting and we counted every one of them the next day.

[Rod]

cowboy wrote:
LOL!:DYou guys remind me when some cowboys thought they would round up the chickens to get a count. After the day was done Ma went out and closed the coop after dark when they were roosting and we counted every one of them the next day.
Well, it turns out it was ALL wishful thinking...:D

[cowboy]

Rod it looks to me that the stupid I fund is going to take a hit tomorrow. I hope you avoided what I took today but I doubt it. The damn bear is nipping at your heals.