Interfund Transfer 3/24 for 3/28/05

[tsptalk]

I am making an interfund transfer Thursday morning going 100% G fund before the deadline. I am expecting another push down at some point next week but something else caught my attention. The day prior to Good Friday is seasonally strong but the day after Easter has only been up 2 of the prior 21 occurrences when the S&P 500 is trading below the 50-day moving average as it is now.Today's rally makes that decision easier.

Effective Monday 3/28, 100% G fund. I will likely be back into stocks sometime next week.

[Spaf]

Good luck! and go get'm Tom http://www.websmileys.com/sm/animal/527.gif

[JerBer]

Seems like this month hasn't been following the seasonality data much. I think oil and the threat of inflation have been overshadowing it.

[tsptalk]

I noticed that JerBer. The S&Phas almost been an exact opposite image of the March seasonality data. But when the post holiday stats, earnings warnings season and end of the month (except last day or two) data line up withanervous market, I decided to go with it.

[Skip]

You also have the long holiday week-end and the way its been overseas I don't want to be in the market on a long religous holiday weekend..:cool:

Skip 100%G power!!!

The bond fund has stayed even for 3 days.... You think its getting ready to pay

a few cents ? I havn't got the fund down good enough to figure it out...

Skip

[tsptalk]

Skip wrote:
The bond fund has stayed even for 3 days.... You think its getting ready to pay

a few cents ? I havn't got the fund down good enough to figure it out...
The last couple of timesover the last few months the price stood frozen for more than a couple of days it, has gone up each time in its next move.

I won't play it but I hadn't noticed that pattern.

[DazedandConfused]

Tom, as you recognized I am new to your site, but I am telling everyone else about the site. I was wondering how you have made out percentage wise with your system.:shock:

[tsptalk]

Thanks for the promotion D&C.

My current returns can be found here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html)

My past year returns are posted here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html

[GGal]

Hi Tom

Is the far right column on your prior year returns the amount of annual yield if one had been spread equally among the 5 funds? And if so, does that mean that really your earnings for all of those years would have worked out about the same, if you had spread your investment equally?



Thanks Gawga:)

[MR CARLO]

TSPTALK IS A GREAT SITE, THANKS. LIKE DAZEDAND CONFUSED IM PUTTING THE WORD OUT. I have Learn a great deal. As part of my work I am watching grafts and charts. They only mean something if you know what the process is. I am following your allocations for this year, so good luck. I did not follow you 100% to the G fund currently 90%G 10%C. Cant help but gamble a little and keep a toe in the C fund.

ILL be Watching!!! :^

[Maxwell]

Tom,

In addition to Dazed and Confused and Carloc, I have also been mentioning your site toothers, to present co-workers and even to co-workers that just retired that are still managing their TSP funds. Theyall find your site very helpful and speak very highly of all that you do here. I have learned a lot more and gained a better understanding of TSPfrom joining your site. As far as going 100% into the G Fund effective 3/28, but likely to get back into the stocks next week, what do you think you might get back into, theC Fund again? What do you think about the I Fund? I was looking at the I fund and with the share prices dropping on that fund as well, would you think this would be a good time to buy into the I fund? Do you think the I fund is close to bottom and that this might be a good time to get in before it starts going back up again in price?

Maxwell

[tsptalk]

GeorgiaGal wrote:
Is the far right column on your prior year returns the amount of annual yield if one had been spread equally among the 5 funds? And if so, does that mean that really your earnings for all of those years would have worked out about the same, if you had spread your investment equally?

Yeah. Anytime you have an extended bear market, a diversified account will be tough to beat.

[tsptalk]

Welcome carloc! Thanks for the kind words.

Maxwell - Again thanks for spreading the word. I appreciate it.

I will likely go back into the C fund although the I fund is getting tempting. I'm shying away from the S fund right now because of interest rates but because they have been hit pretty hard, like the I fund, they may see a nice rebound.

I see the S and I as having the most risk right now. Risk could mean big gains or serious lagging. You can decide how much you want to gamble. As always the key tothe I fund is the dollar. If it continues to rise you'd rather be in the US funds. If it starts to fall again, you'd want to be in the I fund.I wish I knew what it was going to do. :)

[JustICE]

Is there a limit to how many times you can make a transfer, in a given time. Form what Im gathering here is that you guys might change weekly..



PS tahnks for the help on my welcome and my other questions,

[lovegardening]

you can make an interfund transfer everyday if you want. That depends on how you follow the market......

[learning]

JustICE welcome

You can do day to day transfers. Everyday that the TSP office is open you can do one. If they are trading you can be. NO charge no limit. I am in or out of the market by 1100 hours Eastern time. It can take 2 days for a trade. I have found if I am in by 1100 hrs that my trades go into affect the next day.

(got your name). I like the way you did your name.wink. LOL

[Gritz]

Morning Tom, thanks for the update. For what it is worth, I agree with your assessment for another push down, looks like the push could be the better part of this week. What little I know at this point and rely on as indicators show that we are just below the line of oversold, but overall market sentiment has not yet fallen into this mindset; and as you have stated, the turn or rally up appears to be soon, but there may not need to be a rush to get in as things could stay down for a short.

Two quick questions:
1) if we get the push down and based on the economic conditions that currently exist (oil, maybe lower consumer confidence, bearish?) would it not be plausible to think that the market would go side-ways for a bit, get through the earnings season and then, hopefully, regain the move up? I know anything is possible, just looking for your educated opinion.

2)As I'm still studying some additional use of charts (thanks to Spaf), when you say "the volume was anemic" are you referring to the amount (which I thought was in avg. line with the year) or are you referring to the sentiment associated with the volume? Or both or none of the above?

Appreciate your time, thanks.

Mike

[tsptalk]

Gritz wrote:
Two quick questions:
1) if we get the push down and based on the economic conditions that currently exist (oil, maybe lower consumer confidence, bearish?) would it not be plausible to think that the market would go side-ways for a bit, get through the earnings season and then, hopefully, regain the move up? I know anything is possible, just looking for your educated opinion.
Hey Gritz -
I do believe the market is in a consolidation period as we saw last year at this time. So yes, we could move sideways for months. But from a short term perspective, the market wiggles can give us 5% or move moves in either direction, without any real change in the economy, but rather market sentiment and news events (like you said, earnings, economic reports etc.)


2)As I'm still studying some additional use of charts (thanks to Spaf), when you say "the volume was anemic" are you referring to the amount (which I thought was in avg. line with the year) or are you referring to the sentiment associated with the volume? Or both or none of the above?

The number of shares traded. According to my S&P 500 chart,yesterday's volume was close to, if not the lowest volume day of the year at just over 1.5B shares traded. If we get a turnaround we'd like tosee 2 billion so we know there is some serious participation.

Tom

[Gritz]

Well you got your 2 Billion traded but the participation seems to be to the downside...not surprising though. thanks for your reply.