Interfund Transfer 3/16, effective 3/17/05

[tsptalk]

It looks as if the market is going to pullback again this morning. I have been waiting for a good sell off to start moving back into stocks. I will initiate an interfund transfer before this morning's deadline. I am moving 30% into the C fund and keeping 70% in the G fund. This will be effective 3/17/05.

I am not in a hurry to get fully invested and will play it by ear.

Tom

[Rolo]

Smart move. Maybe Friday will be the beginning of the upturn.

Buying stocks before a FOMC meeting is all ways a smart move!

[Rolo]

When does it meet and what's the expectation/sentiment about it?

[Spaf]

tsptalk wrote:
I am moving 30% into the C fund and keeping 70% in the G fund.
Tom howdo you figure 30% to be a "toe"?

[Rolo]

ehehehehe...elephantitis?

[ou81200]

I believe the meeting is on 3/22. Has anyone done any research as to how the market did during past meetings???

[Rolo]

I would think what Tom said about surprises in job's reports would also apply here, or in any scheduled events for that matter: suprises = bad, normal = good.

My take is that if people are looking for a reason to invest in the market, they will find it, barring any outrageous adversity coming from the FOMC. Likewise, if people are looking for a reason to bail, they will find it. Human nature tends to see what it wants, regardless of the facts.


My prediction: Hey, it's spring! People should be boinking more, and therefore happy, and therefore optimistic about the market. Who knows, maybe Dr Dub might not whine so much! :D

Raising interest rates are all ways helpful to stocks!

:( Not to sure when the line "fed hikes are good for stocks" came about but it not the truth. Only people left in stocks are the retail folks (ma an pop). The rich and insiders are selling. Just like, get ready - 2000. :P Where have ya heard that before?

[tsptalk]

Spaf wrote:
Tom howdo you figure 30% to be a "toe"?
OK, I'll adjust.

Toe = 10 to 15%
Foot = 20 to 30%
waist = up to 50%
etc....

Tom has big toes to go with his big clown feet.

70% is Red Rubber Nose...:D

[Rolo]

Dr_Dubious wrote:
Raising interest rates are all ways helpful to stocks!

Why I ain't in S no mo'.

Human coping spin:

Say they raise interest rates by .25%. The market can react however it wants.

UP: We expected a .5% raise, but since it's only .25%, the market is stronger.
DOWN: That hike shouldn't have happened yet, too soon, the market will drop.

A .5% raise you say?

UP: It was already priced into the market and the prices reflect that, it is a buying opportunity.
DOWN: .5%!?!?! We expected .25%! We're all gonna die!



Sentiment matters most. I don't care what the numbers say. I don't care if they do or do not make sense. I don't care about under/over-valuations. I just want to know where the big money will flow so I can hop on my skateboard and know which car to grab.

.50

[Rolo]

Dr_Dubious wrote:
Just like, get ready - 2000. :P Where have ya heard that before?

Some town crier.

If you sat on the sidelines complaining about the insanity and overvaluation and only stuck to things that made sense, you would have been on the sidelines 98-00 and missed huge profits. The technical indicators said to get out in Jan 2000 and the bubble burst in March. Don't argue with the market, you will lose every time!

[Rolo]

Dr_Dubious wrote:
The market is going to trade sideways until at least 2015.

That's quite a prediction. So you think slow growth, say 5-7%/year is too optimistic?


Dr_Dubious wrote:
Remember the Fed stats are STILL based on 25 crude.

That went over my head; what does that mean?

[Spaf]

tsptalk wrote:
Spaf wrote:
Tom howdo you figure 30% to be a "toe"?
OK, I'll adjust.

Toe = 10 to 15%
Foot = 20 to 30%
waist = up to 50%
etc....
Fesed up! Wadders on trolling the C fund. I new it! :D

[Rolo]

Dr_Dubious wrote:
Mr Green jeans has stated oil at these prices are temporary. They have not adjusted their data for the doubling of crude prices.
Oooooh, I see. That's like the 3rd or 4th spin so far...