FYI: Website System Shows 58% Return on TSP 12MAR11-11JUN12

[KeyserSoze1922]

FYI: Website System Shows 58% Return on TSP 12MAR11-11JUN12

I think this is worth taking a look at. (NOTE: I have no connection to this website, and it appears to be completely non-commercial - i.e., it posts its system for free, but it's at your own risk to use it.)

This evening, found a website that shows a TSP investment system entitled: "TSP Market Sentiment Timing System" that shows a Total System Return of 58% from 12 March 2011 through 11 June 2012. The system uses only the S & G funds. Following the market close on 11 June 2012, the system is invested in the G fund. The website address is:

TSP Market Sentiment Timing System | TSP and ETF Timing Signals (http://www.timing-signals.com/tsp-market-sentiment-timing-system/)

According to the website:

"The System relies on a market sentiment indicator and trades against the sentiment. That is, when the market sentiment indicator shows excessive pessimism, the System moves into the S Fund (goes Long the S fund). When the sentiment indicator moves back to neutral or bullish, the System moves into the safety of the G Fund.

The System moves into the S Fund no more than twice a month (and always on the first trading day after the weekend – usually Monday.) The signal is posted by 10:30 AM Eastern Time (US) on the trading day (usually Monday) for trading at the close on that day."

[KeyserSoze1922]

Correction: Apparently, the website system incorrectly used 4 IFTs in May 2012 and 3 IFTs in August 2011, which skews the results. Actual TSP users are only allowed 2 IFTs, and anything after that transfers to the G fund.

[RealMoneyIssues]

Correction: Apparently, the website system incorrectly used 4 IFTs in May 2012 and 3 IFTs in August 2011, which skews the results. Actual TSP users are only allowed 2 IFTs, and anything after that transfers to the G fund.

You beat me to it, I was just going to make a comment on the IFT limit. :p

Welcome to the site, is this your system?

[Boghie]

I don't know what happened, but the references to excessive trade count isn't obvious to me. Also, the advertised total return is now 43%.
Finally, a largish chunk of the returns are from back testing...
Anyway, it is worth a look, eh...

Unless the author changed it - and the earlier stuff went down the memory hole. Can one of you who saw this yesterday take a peek...

[craigerv]

I'm with Boghie, I looked at that yesterday too and I didn't see anything wrong with the number of IFTs. I'm not sure what the system is based on but it's something to keep an eye on going forward to see what kind of returns it produces live.

[Intrepid_Timer]

The site changed their IFTs and return from when this link was originally posted. They've been in business since 1999 and apparently just came up with a timing system for TSP last June. Looks like one of those sites that moves around to the different factions once they've run their course. Sort of a take the money and run if you will. But they are free "for now" as the site states, so who knows............just be careful. ;)

[Kaufmanrider]

Checking the site it looks familiar. I had found it last year and they had multiple TSP Strategies and EFT Strategies. Went by a different website URL.

I think they were all free last year when I found it, but the returns were not that good. Looks like they correct that, or so they say? Time will tell won't it.

Worth watching.

[KeyserSoze1922]

When I did the original post (11 June) the timing-signals.com website showed a 58% return, but they have since revised it to a 43% return - possibly, to correct the error in the number of allowable IFTs.

NOTE: I first noticed the timing-signals.com website in DEC 2011, but it temporarily stopped posting updates to the timing signals about 23 DEC 2011 - and then re-started posting the updates earlier this month. I hope they keep going this time because I've found it helpful for TSP investing as well as EFT investing (the website has similar investing systems for both). It would be nice if they gave some description of their investing method/algorithm so that users could gain a little insight into how it works.

[ILoveTDs]

It would be nice if they gave some description of their investing method/algorithm so that users could gain a little insight into how it works.

If they did that, and the system actually works, they couldn't sell the system later as a premium service.