Technical Analysis of TSP Funds

[MattN]

Although I have used fundamental analysis and technical analysis to evaluate stock investments, I am a "technician" when it comes to funds that contain groups of stocks. The G Fund tracks the short-term U.S. treasuries and stays fairly constant (i.e., very low volatility), at the moment very low rate of return. So it is not much fun to perform any technical analysis on the G funds. The Fixed Index funds tend to follow the pattern that when bonds go up, the F fund goes up and vice versa. So the F Fund is also not very interesting from a tech analysis viewpoint. Just watch the movement of bond yields. Neither the G nor the F fundsappear to beattractive new investments at this time.

I found the website at http://www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com/) as a useful place for me to conduct technical analysis of the TSP funds C, S, and I. By using the appropriate "ticker" symbol for each fund, one can perform a tech analysis of each.

Below is a description of the ticker symbols I am using for the C, S, and I funds. I welcome any other input:

The first step is to determine the appropriate "ticker" symbol for each fund. The C Fund tracks the S&P 500 and this has a ticker of $SPX. The S Fund tracks the Wilshire 4500. I could not find a ticker specifically for the Wilshire 4500, but I did find one for the Wilshire 5000. I assume the Wilshire 4500 and Wilshire 5000 indexestrack sufficiently close to allow meaningful tech analysis using the Wilshire 5000 index. If so, the ticker for the Wilshire 5000 is $WLSH. The I Fund tracks the EAFE Index for which I used the EAFE Index iShares Index with a ticker of EFA.

Comments? :)

[tsptalk]

Welcome MattN ! Thanks for joining us.

Try $EMWfor the Wilshire 4500.

Tom

[eukrate]

You can use $emw for the S fund (wilshire 4500) and
use agg for the F (Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) bond index

[MattN]

OK!

;)

Thanks!

- MattN

[gunner]

MattN Thanks for the info. This site is invauable.

[gunner]

MattN,

Thanks for the info on ticker symbols.

There's alot that can be learned on this site.

[fuzzduzz]

I'm using the (vxf) for the s fund. Check it out.

[tsptalk]

fuzzduzz wrote:
I'm using the (vxf) for the s fund. Check it out.
Welcome fuzzduzz.

$emw / ^ emwwe mention above have been disabled for some reason. Rolo found ^dwcp for the Wilshire 4500 quotes. It seems to be pretty accurate.

finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^gspc+^dwcpf+efa+agg&d=t

The link won't work here but you can cut and paste it into a browser. I also have this link oward the top left all of the site's pages outside of the message board.

Thanks for joining us!
Tom

[mbehr55]

I've been looking for a good chart for the S fund and after reading the previous posts checked out $EMW vs VXF on stockcharts.com. It's pretty close with only some of the tops not quite matching.

You can use $SPX and IVV for theC and $EFV and EFA for the for the I.

Now if I can make my own chart where I overlay the actual TSP fund on top of the index and the corresponding ETF, then my work is complete.............

[tsptalk]

Try here... http://tinyurl.com/3j467 (http://tinyurl.com/3j467)

[Dave M]

Technical analysis is used in my trade -- weather. We examine trends and cycles and changes in the variables over time.Itell peoplethat we revert to statistics when we don't know the reason why. When we know something is going on but we don't know what, we look at the stats.

Ourgoal is not to predict the next observation necessarily, but to find the underlying truth, the nature of the physics at work. Applying statistical methods to market datacannot reveal any underlying truth because there is none. The human factor, the psychology of the investors, is all-important I think.This is what a market is, a place for people to gather and buy/sell to one another.

The only underlying truth that can be uncovered is that of the overall state of the economy, I think. Treating people as arandom factor, what emerges can only be the nearly steady-state conditions of the economyas a whole, a rising or falling tide as it were.

So maybe an analysis of the fundamentals is what we want? Are there any fundamentalists on board?

Dave

[tsptalk]

Dave M wrote:
The human factor, the psychology of the investors, is all-important I think.This is what a market is, a place for people to gather and buy/sell to one another.
That's my main indicator.


Are there any fundamentalists on board?

PE's are very high from an historical viewpoint but stocks are still relatively cheap when earnings growth is compared to bond yields.

[Rolo]

Dave M wrote:
Are there any fundamentalists on board?
Oh, that's Azanon's calling card! :)

[Dave M]

Azanon -- I see him listed as a member but he has no account/talk. I'll just have to watch for him.

Tom, if the human factor is your indicator, why go through all the trouble with the charts, trend lines and the like. You are seeing the EFFECT merely; whatyou want to isolate is the CAUSE. Does anyone sample investor confidence, or watchthe number of new hires in brokerage houses, or trends in the quantity of booze poured in Wall St bars? LOL.

Dave

[tsptalk]

Dave M wrote:
Tom, if the human factor is your indicator, why go through all the trouble with the charts, trend lines and the like. You are seeing the EFFECT merely; whatyou want to isolate is the CAUSE.
It's my main indicator, not my only indicator. And there are a good half dozen or more sentiment indicators I watch. It would be pretty tough though to time the market without looking at a chart. The charts help me anticipate the herd's reactions.

[tsptalk]

Dave M wrote:
or watchthe number of new hires in brokerage houses, or trends in the quantity of booze poured in Wall St bars? LOL.
The new hires is an excellent indicator for findingmarket extremes and turning points. Not too useful as a short term tool. I'll have to do more research on the booze indicator though. :)

[mbehr55]

Has anybody looked at www.indextrades.net (http://www.indextrades.net)? They post short/long term buy/sell signals for some indexes and ETFs. As of yesterday, they are all cash for long term and all long for short term. Go figure......I'm currently 80% G with 5% in each of the others. Was 10% C S & I until yesterday when I decided to lock in some small gains. Waiting for the bear to come back, keeping an eye on the 200 ema.

[Dave M]

Hi M-55. The last six months have taught me that I can onlymake gains ifthe gains are there to be made. We areeight or ten weeks into a rising trend so now is the time.Later, should the rising trend terminate, will be the time to withdraw and assess. Therefore I am thinking of ways to increase my position, not decrease it. See my account-talk.

Dave

[mbehr55]

If the Big Boys earnings reports next week are good and the market rachets up a few more notches then I guess I will have gotten out a little too early. I'm new to TA so my timing is less than desirable, but protecting what I have is more important than chasing every gain. However, I will get better and bolder as I acquire more experience. Buy and Hold is out for me especially after the losses I took in '01 and '02.

[Birchtree]

If a participant was a buy and hold with dollar cost averaging all the way down in 2001 and 2002 picking up some wondeful prices every two weeks and then did dollar cost averaging all the way back up through 2003 and 2004 into 2005, they should be well into the profit zone. Now if you clucked out and sat in the G fund you earned the correct reward for the amount of risk assumed. Experience builds investing character. We are probably at the start of another 3000 point run - don't miss out by not being aggressive.

[grandma]

Birchtree wrote:
... Now if you clucked out and sat in the G fund you earned the correct reward for the amount of risk assumed. Experience builds investing character. We are probably at the start of another 3000 point run - don't miss out by not being aggressive.It is real hard not be a believer w/you on the coaching team!!!:)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_7_9.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNxmk145YYUS) http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_7_8.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNxmk145YYUS)

[mbehr55]

Right or wrong, I intend to be the master of my own destiny. I'm hoping the use of TA will help me master that destiny, at least as it relates to the TSP.

[Aslan]

Guys/Girls

None of us know where the market is going! The reason I asked Tom to start this thread was so along with my reading on the side, I could learn from all of you about the message the market is sending us through charts/graphs. This stuff can really work if weget educated and help each other out.

I'm not worried about earnings reports, PE ratio's, fundamentals, price of oil, fed rate increases, etc.. . at least all the stuff I've been reading puts no substance to this. People always seem to guess off of that stuff, it appears. I'm trying to understand a more predictable (not perfect by any means) way of doing things. Let's keep the talk to Technical analysis, please. Thanks for everyone's input. Humbly written.. . Aslan

[Spaf]

Aslan wrote:
Guys/Girls

None of us know where the market is going! The reason I asked Tom to start this thread was so along with my reading on the side, I could learn from all of you about the message the market is sending us through charts/graphs. This stuff can really work if weget educated and help each other out.

I'm not worried about earnings reports, PE ratio's, fundamentals, price of oil, fed rate increases, etc.. . at least all the stuff I've been reading puts no substance to this. People always seem to guess off of that stuff, it appears. I'm trying to understand a more predictable (not perfect by any means) way of doing things. Let's keep the talk to Technical analysis, please. Thanks for everyone's input. Humbly written.. . Aslan

Aslan,

To understand the market, it takes knowing both fundamentals (the economy) and the the analysis (technical charts, etc.). The market sends out all sorts of messages. Reading the messages is not always easy. Start your education by understanding The Dow Theory; to understand the primary movements of the market. Once you get a grasp on The Dow Theory, the pieces will begin to fall toghether and you can sort the BS from the truth. In TSP the S&P (C-fund) will give you the best market view, the rest of the funds you can judge on performance. See www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com). RE: $SPX. The TSP funds are index funds, except G, so their analysis can be viewed at the TSP site.

Fundamentals are important, you got to have a chicken first. I reference the fundamentals as the four horsemen: earnings, rates, inflation, and energy. Keeping a eye on the transportations RE: $TRAN is a breath of the future. You got to get the goods to the producer.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[Aslan]

Spaf-

I have a copy of the "Dow Theory" but have not read it yet. I'm also familiar with www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com). I'm familiar with the symbols for those charts as well. Thanks I've got a lot to read and understand.

[Spaf]

A book that I recommend, with few biases and a lot of good information is "Trading for Dummies" by Michael Griffis and Lita Epstein, about $25 new. Maybe, less at amason .com.

A few things you might want to rewiew: Moving averages, noteworth the 20 day MA., Relative strength indicators RSI (over bought/over sold), Money flow indicators, try CMI., The Parabolic-SAR. See: www.incrediblecharts.com (http://www.incrediblecharts.com) RE: trading guide. It's a good site.

Rgds :) Spaf

[tsptalk]

Aslan wrote:
Guys/Girls

The reason I asked Tom to start this thread was so along with my reading on the side, I could learn from all of you about the message the market is sending us through charts/graphs. This stuff can really work if weget educated and help each other out.
Actually Aslan, here is the forumwe started.. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum41/. These other TA threads were kind of spread out among several forums and topics. I think it was a great idea you had to have a specific forum for TA. It's a big part of trading and investing.

Tom

[mlk_man]

mbehr55 wrote:
Has anybody looked at http://www.indextrades.net? They post short/long term buy/sell signals for some indexes and ETFs. As of yesterday, they are all cash for long term and all long for short term. Go figure......I'm currently 80% G with 5% in each of the others. Was 10% C S & I until yesterday when I decided to lock in some small gains. Waiting for the bear to come back, keeping an eye on the 200 ema.
Interesting site. Just goes to show you, no system is impervious to losses. Since their first "live" signal on 3\10\05, they are down about 4% using their short-term model with the Russell 2000 (our S fund basically). Even my system is beating that.....:P At least I feel better!

Good luck,

M_M

[Aslan]

Tom-

You are absolutely right, I realized after I posted that I did it on the wrong "Technical analysis thread. Thanks

[mbehr55]

Hopefully others will post their TA methods for the TSP. EMAs and Stochastics seem to give the best buy/sell signals from what I've seen so far.

[Spaf]

mbehr55 wrote:
Hopefully others will post their TA methods for the TSP. EMAs and Stochastics seem to give the best buy/sell signals from what I've seen so far.
They got so many analysis indicators you can't fit them all in your bag. Pick a few that show: trends, strength, and money flow. A moving average of 21 days will give a good heads up, also a possible over reaction if not used with other indicators.

Paper stops for the C-fund is something I sort of like. Generally I'll set an alert stop at 1% and a trailing stop at 2%. Oil can be a stop of sorts. As of lately we have been using <55 = ok, 55 - 60 = worry, and >60 = panic.

Otherwise we use:

[mbehr55]

Can anybody recommend some charting software that we could download the past price history into and then do some TA?

[tsptalk]

Are you talking free data or paid? I'm not sure of any free services but I think chartsmart is $28/month for daily updates.

Here is a source of varoius services... http://www.financedownload.com/investingsoftware/investingsoftware.htm

[mbehr55]

Cheap is good, free is best......the motto of a government employee. Thanks for the link.