View Full Version : THUMB IN THE AIR INVESTOR
HELLO EVERYONE. I AM NEW TO THE SITE AND FIND IT QUITE INTERESTING, BUT OVERWHELMING. I'VE BEEN IN THE TSP FOR ABOUT 13 YEARS NOW AND STILL DON'T HAVE CLUE AS TO WHAT I AM DOING. I CONTRIBUTE THE MAX,STICK MY THUMB IN THE AIR, AND HOPE I MADE THE RIGHT DECISION. THERE HAS TO BE A MORE PRECISE WAY! TODAY I WENT 50% C AND 50% I. IT WAS A GUT FEELING. SEE WHAT I MEAN.
I AM NOT GREEDY, BUT I AM WILLING TO TAKE SOME CHANCES. HECK, I'LL STAY IN UNTIL THE MANDATORY 57 1/2 AND THAT IS A LONG TIME OUT.
RECOMMENDATIONS SOUGHT ON ALLOCATIONS. ALSO, I READ A LITTLE ABOUT CONSULTANTS/MANAGERS. ANY RECOMMENDATIONS ON ONE THAT IS FAMILIAR WITH TSP OR USE TO WORKING W/FED EMPLOYEES? ANY GOOD INVESTMENT GUIDES OUT THERE FOR TSP EMPLOYEES? (BESIDES YOU FINE PEOPLE):D
NEXT WEEK I WILL HEAR FROM SOMEONE WHO WORKS FOR THE FEDERAL EMPLOYEES BENEFIT GROUP. GOOD? BAD? WHAT'S UP WITH THE GROUP?
THANKS ALL AND HAVE A GOOD ONE.
NARC
This is a good example...13 years in TSP and he does not know what he is doing...this is a good reason not to have private accounts...you will force people to go long the stock market to be able to retire...theme from jaws here....the hedge fund guys are going to be ripping off limps....probably 60% off the population will just pick one stock fund and not even make a change...that is what it is like in the 401Ks...100% invested in the NASDAQ is extremely common...most aggressive because I got 20 years to go...
tsptalk
02-05-2005, 09:46 PM
NARC wrote:
THERE HAS TO BE A MORE PRECISE WAY!
Welcome NARC! We all have different strategies. You have to find one that works for you. If you have time, check out the entire site. The message board is filled withquestions and answersabout everything you can probably think of. The longer term comments (www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html)) gives my outlook for the next year or so. My daily market comments (www.tsptalk.com/comments.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html)) tell what I think about the current market situation.
I, and several members, post their allocations for all to see. Some explain why they are making the move. Since everyone's situation is different, I rarely say "Do this". I just tell you what I am doing and why. Then you have to make your own decision. If you read enough, you will get an idea of the type of approach you want to take to your TSP account.
Thanks for joining us. After going over the site, let us know if you have any questions.
Tom
Narc,
That is my normal greeting on this board....using you as an example...sorry your I have been in TSP for 13 years just makes me sad that will be the sole retirement for a lot of folks STARTING EARLY 2006.
Also I was a little taking back by your tag, Narc.
Tom will shove ya in the right direction...however I would like to add a site for ya since I was kind of rude...which is rare for me I am told.
Fundadvice.com
You will probably want to research Hold and Hope....until you are comfortable with timing if you choice.
Good luck, welcome on board...hope you do not fall into the water.
MT
MarketTimer:
THANKS FOR THE QUICK RESPONSE. I APPRECIATE THE ADVICE/RECOMMENDATIONS. THANK YOU.
G-MAN WAS TAKEN AND I AM A LITTLE SHORT OF IMAGINATION TONIGHT, SO I WENT WITH NARC.
THANKS AGAIN,
NARC
TOM:
GREAT SITE AND THANK YOU FOR THE WELCOME. I TOOK A LOOK AT THE COMMENTS AND OUTLOOK SECTIONS. THANKS FOR THE ADVICE AND I'LL BE TALKIN TO YA.
NARC
MarketTimer,
Is Hold And Hope a book or stratagey? Thanks.
Narc
It is a pipe dream...ha ha.
Hold and hope is what I call...buy and hold.
Please go the site I told you...they will walk through everyone...if you have any questions please send me an e-mail...I will be glad to help you out.
Have a great day!
MT
MarketTimer wrote:
since I was kind of rude...which is rare for me I am told. MT
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_11_6.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)sorry couldn't resist
Wonder,
No worries...I am really do not want to be rude....I just feel so sorry that our high schools do not even teach us to balance a check book yet they expect us to manager our own investments accounts...right out the block...
As you can see by the new folks...13, 15, 16 in the govt retirement system they do not have any training at all.
Social security reform will be the largest financial disaster of our life time...standing around the water cooler...when I am 95 I should be able to retire if the market goes up this year....when you make retirement on hope, need and greed that is right before a major market crash.
Once again...I am being a jerk because I am trying to get you start researching for your future and your retirement...I have found if I am a nice guy nothing happens I get results by dripping the facts on ya....
I truly care about you or I would not spend my time here.....
I am not saying I know everything...but I am saying I know what is going on and what is upcoming...as you can tell I have been very vocal in the last couple days...because just like in 2000 we got the buy on dips things there got to be one more rally thing going on again....history does repeat itself.
I know I was hard on Sarah....but she proves my point....three months or more on this board talking about trading S selling S buying S she did not even know what the fund was or what it was indexed too...CAN YOU BELIEVE IT??? I can...it really scares me that your ability to retire will be based on your ability to trade your funds....
I wish ya all the best. Call me crazy, call me nutty...but ya got to respect my calls...was anyone saying August 2004: It will get bad the start of the New Year?? Ohh that January thing was just a buying opporunity...no that was a wake up call, the markets go down too.
MT
MT...Kind of got to agree with you. That is what we should be doing is helping others out. Toms home page pretty much sums it up "How is your Thrift Savings Plan account performing? A well allocated TSP account could make a major difference in your balance when you retire."
How many TSP participants are just in one or two funds, how many know how to play the market and protect assets?
Yea! we want our funds to grow, but we also want to help others.
Being your own investor for social security, might stur some education in schools.
So for all the new folks: Read through the TSP site to learn about the funds and how to allocate and transfer, also read about the funds. Stay on this site also and learn it's navigation. Listen, and when you think you got the feel of things, jump in. If you have any questions, ask! There is no stupid question, cause we were all there one time or another. And, WELCOME!
Rgds! :) Spaf
And no not bash MT....
:)
If you bash me please have your facts straight...I maked typos and my mind sometimes is (well actually all the time) 10 steps ahead of me...but please do not bash, bash, bash....research research research then have at me...
You will find NOW I will make mistakes on purpose to see who catches me...
Have you went to google yet and typed:
"Head and Shoulders Reversal Top"
"3 Peaks and a Domed House"
yet...oh the mistake on purpose thing is a safety net for my stupid mistakes I make sometimes...ha ha. What is bad I have a computer with six monitors now so I am watching six screens at once...you know what I said to myself the other day...I think I need the nine screens now....the internet is going to be like the Matrix we will be hard wired in.
Good day mates!
MT
MT
Great a on line poker...it is hard to bluff yourself...if you know what I mean...:D...raise, double raise, go over the top and everyone folds and ya take the blinds...yum yum...the three folks are ME.
:shock:
MarketTimer wrote:
I truly care about you or I would not spend my time here.....
MT
MT....I would like to know about selling short.
You have the experience. Start a thread on educating us. Some of us have accounts with brokers. Hey help us out! :^
Rgds :) Spaf
Welcome, NARC!
Just remember: it is spelled M-a-r-k-e-t-T-i-m-e-r, but it is pronounced "Chick-en-Lit-tle" :D
MarketTimer wrote:
No worries...I am really do not want to be rude....I just feel so sorry that our high schools do not even teach us to balance a check book yet they expect us to manager our own investments accounts...right out the block...
1. I think balancing a checkbook is pretty self-evident and really does not require state-sponsored formal education.
2. My high-school did teach how to balance a checkbook. I wonder how many of my peers failed to successfully balance their checkbooks in spite of it. 'Education' and 'responsiblility' are not synonymous.
3. I learned, and continue to learn,what my investment choices are and how to manage them all on my own. Why? Because it is my money and I, solely, amresponsible for it.
4. Ifone does not want to manage his own investments, then one should hire a professional, much like one usually does forhis own plumbing, auto service and repair, roofing, surgery, etc.
5. They do not teach parenting in high-school, but if you have children, you are expected to parent them. (except in California.)
MarketTimer wrote:
Social security reform will be the largest financial disaster of our life time...
Umm...no...Socialism Security itself is the largest financial disaster, if anything. It just took several years for people to notice. The Raw Deal. heh
MarketTimer wrote:
...it really scares me that your ability to retire will be based on your ability to trade your funds....
1. No, it doesn't. Working life (20-40 years) * contributions * stock market average (~11%) = a very nice retirement. No trading required whatsoever.
2. Mutual Funds were never designed for trading.
3. Anyone with a mastery of technical indicators such as yours would be trading stocks, not funds, for above-board returns in any market condition.
MarketTimer wrote:
Call me crazy, call me nutty
I wouldn't. And I would know. muaha. :h
was anyone saying August 2004: It will get bad the start of the New Year?? Ohh that January thing was just a buying opporunity...no that was a wake up call, the markets go down too.
It hasn't gotten 'bad'. We have a nice, healthy W forming right now. The market hasn't declined yet. You keep saying that we are in a bear market but my TSP made 12+% in 2004; what did yours make? Were you in stocks in the last few months of 2004 or were you waiting for the sky--I mean market--to fall?
My TSP is up 9.6% over the past 1 year and I've kept my # shares for the next run-up...or...will take my profit if the market does turn (which it has not done yet). You try to ding saraho but her TSP returns kicked all our butts. Money talks, and--you know that other thing--that walks...
Healthy W...
Break out the crayons...Ok Johnny....
are you freaking crazy...that is a like the clearest example of a head and shoulders top you will every see...it is like text book...........
I want you to stay long so that us hands on deck can hear your pain...
text book head and shoulders...it is like perfect:
left shoulder, head, right shoulder...elbow, hand, knee, floor...I can say no more..
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/3m/_/_dji.gif
Head and Shoulders 101 - does the belowsound familiar???? Schools out...lets party....
The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends. It is also most reliable when found in an uptrend as well. Eventually, the market begins to slow down and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again(continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.)
God this is like whiffle ball: just hit it off the tie...short the hell out of everything:
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/images/hs-basicflat-cnet.png
Had to use an example from 2000...just had to...because we are in Feb 2000 right now....
Rolo - You be the man!
The data is wrong, the charts are wrong, MT is wrong...0/3...walk the plank. Thrash around...bleed slowly...
MT
AS AN ADDED BONUS - WE ARE AT THE RIGHT SHOULDER NOW....if you can not read the chart...ding ding....ICEBERG ahead...
Rolo - I beg you please stay long....I love to hear the stories of wooo...if I only bailed WAHHHHHHHHHHHH....I really to here they from the people that I said here is the data, here is the chart...make up your own mind...I AM BULLISH, everything is great...one more rally...the market all ways goes up...I do not want to miss out on the next rally....
The higher the right shoulder ---- answer...the quick and deeper the decline....KEEP BUYING INTO THE RALLY, BUY, BUY, BUY. High for 2005 has been hit...
I will be on deck.
MT
In the grand scheme of things I really do not have time to do the reach search for the nay sayers anymore...
I will be very busy very soon. Probably will not be back here for a while.
I wish you all the best. Will be an interesting next couple of months...keep a deck chair warm for me...
Good luck and be safe.
MT
Okay, I got my crayons and drew the S Fund, being that this is a TSP board, can you show me 1. the bear market we've been having and 2. the head and shoulders?
You've talked about every other index except the ones in which we invest here. Since the TSP indexes are foreign to you, I clearly marked, with my crayon, which way is up.
Also, you didn't answer my questions.
MarketTimer wrote:
are you freaking crazy...
umm....yes....I am. Certifiably as of a few months ago. Thank you for noticing. ;)
MarketTimer wrote:
..the market all ways goes up...
Ultimately, yes, it does, just give it time.
[line]
Other than the above stipulation, I am neither bullish nor bearish at the moment; I am waiting for confirmation either way. A lower high would be a bad thing and I will take my profit. A higher high would be wonderful, followed by a small correction (a handle) andwould make my panties wet.
I still think it is 1935.
-Rolo
The Man
A Finger-In-The-Air-Investor :D
I bailed on the negative job news, thinking the market would take a dump over the next couple weeks. I already rode out most of this rally, so I won't miss out on much if a higher high is made. If a lower high is made, I'm safe.
rokid
02-06-2005, 05:54 AM
Narc,
I was in your position a year ago, i.e. shoveling money into TSP and my wife's 401K without a clue and hoping for the best. That seemed irresponsible. As a result, I started reading everything I could find on investing.
Basically, this site is devoted to market timing, i.e. trying to be invested in the right fund at the right time. Many participants use technical analysis, i.e. the charts, to determine how to move their assets around. Others use "gut feelings". So, if you want to market time, you've come to the right place.
The other major investing approach is to establisha strategic asset allocation based on your personal situation, e.g. years to retirement, appetite for risk, amount of assets, and requirement for return. A reasonable asset allocation for a young person might be 20% F Fund, 45% C Fund, 15% S Fund, and 20% I Fund. An older person might want to hold more bonds, e.g. 50%. MT calls this approach "hope and hold". I call it the smart thing to do.
If you'd like more info on the strategic asset allocation approach, books, papers, and speeches byJohn Bogle, Burton Malkiel, Jeremy Siegel, William Bernstein, and Roger Gibson are an excellent place to start. Also check out William Bernstein's EfficientFrontier website, http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ (http://www.efficientfrontier.com/), and the Dimensional Fund Advisors website, http://www.dfaus.com/ (http://www.dfaus.com/).Finally, check out Pete1's posts on this site.
Your basic approach to investing, e.g. market timing vs. strategic asset allocation, will directly impact your investing results and may determine to a large extent the level of comfort you enjoy in retirement. I wouldn't ignore the experts. It's worth a little research. Good luck.
MarketTimer wrote:
I know I was hard on Sarah....but she proves my point....three months or more on this board talking about trading S selling S buying S she did not even know what the fund was or what it was indexed too...CAN YOU BELIEVE IT??? I can...it really scares me that your ability to retire will be based on your ability to trade your funds....
I wish ya all the best. Call me crazy, call me nutty...but ya got to respect my calls...was anyone saying August 2004: It will get bad the start of the New Year?? Ohh that January thing was just a buying opporunity...no that was a wake up call, the markets go down too.
MT
MT, I respect what you say. Some of it is accurate. Some of it is wrong. Some of it is word salad.
Where were you hard on me? Guess I haven't seen it yet. Honey, I know the S fund better than you seem to know where your tuches is located when u wake up in the morning. (That is, if you ever get to sleep...seems like you're here 24 hrs/day ;))
You're a knowledgeable, opinionated guy who tells it like it is and doesn't care if he offends anyone or not. I accept that. But you seem awfully sensitive to being told that you are wrong. Unfortunately, baby...with respect to the S fund and the NASDAQ being identical...you are wrong. Try to accept it and move on.
MarketTimer wrote:
And no not bash MT....
:)
If you bash me please have your facts straight...I maked typos and my mind sometimes is (well actually all the time) 10 steps ahead of me...but please do not bash, bash, bash....research research research then have at me...
You will find NOW I will make mistakes on purpose to see who catches me...
Have you went to google yet and typed:
"Head and Shoulders Reversal Top"
"3 Peaks and a Domed House"
yet...oh the mistake on purpose thing is a safety net for my stupid mistakes I make sometimes...ha ha. What is bad I have a computer with six monitors now so I am watching six screens at once...you know what I said to myself the other day...I think I need the nine screens now....the internet is going to be like the Matrix we will be hard wired in.
Good day mates!
MT
MT
I think MT is a good example of what can happen to your brain if you spend inordinate amounts of time in trading.. ;)
Pete1
02-06-2005, 11:42 AM
Hello Narc:
I have a fewsuggestions for you.
1. Save as much as you can.
2. Diversify your holdings.
3. Capture the return freely offered by the market for each asset class within TSP.
4. Visit Coffeehouseinvestor.com and read the section titled "the 3 principles of investing." The aboveprinciples are explained in more depth there. Also, visit the websites listed by Rokid and read the "The Intelligent Asset Allocator" by William Bernstein.
One possiblestarting point for you would be to divide your existing account balance equally among the 5 TSP funds via an interfund transfer. In addition, request that your future contributions be dividedequally between the 5 funds via a contribution allocation request. Once per year, request an interfund transfer to rebalance the allocation to 20% in each fund. By following this rebalancing approach, you will be reliablyselling some of the highest performing asset classes each year in order to buy shares of the lowest performing asset classes for that year. Tom lists the current return of thisportfolio at (.30%). Last year, it returned around 11.50%, better than the lowest performing stock fund and the two fixed income funds. The samerebalancing techniquecould be usedfor the allocation that Rokid listed.
Read Bernstein's book :)
Good luck.
Pete
MT
On your head and shoulder pattern it failed to complete the pattern for the right side
when the dow broke above the 10600 level it . however it could make a double top to the same effect....
Today we held the gains from the week whick was a positive !
Tuesif webreak above 10740 that will signal more strength in the market ,
A break below 10700 it will show more weakness, If it falls below 10600 look out...
Chart attached
JMHO
Skip
PETE1,
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY CAPTURING THE RETURNS FREELY OFFERED BY THE FUNDS?
I AM NOT QUITE SURE WHAT YOU MEAN BY GOING IN ALL THREE FUNDS. DO I GO 20% ACROSS THE BOARD OR UNEQUAL DISTRIBUTION, BUT AT SOME POINT IN THE YEAR SPREAD IT OUT EQUALLY? THANKS
NARC
Rolo wrote:
Okay, I got my crayons and drew the S Fund, being that this is a TSP board, can you show me 1. the bear market we've been having and 2. the head and shoulders?
You've talked about every other index except the ones in which we invest here. Since the TSP indexes are foreign to you, I clearly marked, with my crayon, which way is up.
Also, you didn't answer my questions.
Hey, I've mentioned this before. :)
And um, didn't MT say get out the 3rd week of Jan?
TT
Skip,
Where you have right shoulder is the neck line. The higher the right shoulder goes the quicker and faster it falls. Review the CNET example I provided in another post.
A head and shoulders needs a neckline...and an attempt to top the head...just review the verbage "a quick retractment" (January 2005) and a failed attempt to break the top.
I have been reading charts for 16 years and spend a lot of time doing it...this is like tie ball...a head and shoulder top is kind of a misNOMAR...you need a good neckline also. So it should actually be called, Head and Shoulders with Neck Line.
Do not get sucked in...like all the other "experts".
Have you read that IPOs this month will breaked a five year record??? Five years ago was Feb 2000. There are 20 IPOS this week....
I know I appear to be gloom and dome but the only one that does not read the charts and the data are fools.
Good luck!
MT
tsptorture wrote:
Rolo wrote:
Okay, I got my crayons and drew the S Fund, being that this is a TSP board, can you show me 1. the bear market we've been having and 2. the head and shoulders?
You've talked about every other index except the ones in which we invest here. Since the TSP indexes are foreign to you, I clearly marked, with my crayon, which way is up.
Also, you didn't answer my questions.
Hey, I've mentioned this before. :)
And um, didn't MT say get out the 3rd week of Jan?
TT
Ahh,,,that was August...December 28 I said get out now...A call made in August for five months out was pretty darn good....Who else said that the last week of December 2004. Everyone was the DOW will break DOW 11000 the first week of January 2005. A couple folks on this board were saying the S&P 500 will go up 5% the first week of January.
I sent e-mails to a couple people on this board to look at getting out the last week of December.
Good luck. The mainreason I do not like posting here is people like you...all you do is bash but you provide no investing insight. What calls have you made? I do not remember you saying the job report would come in at 140K (a major surprise) but not for the people here, huh?
Why should I waste my time posting here. Recent history...everyone thought the rally would continue today....the people that took my adviced and went 100% G are all ready saved some good money.
Good luck and stay long.
MT
Ahh,,,that was August...December 28 I said get out now...A call made in August for five months out was pretty darn good....Who else said that the last week of December 2004. Everyone was the DOW will break DOW 11000 the first week of January 2005. A couple folks on this board were saying the S&P 500 will go up 5% the first week of January.
I sent e-mails to a couple people on this board to look at getting out the last week of December.
Good luck. The mainreason I do not like posting here is people like you...all you do is bash but you provide no investing insight. What calls have you made? I do not remember you saying the job report would come in at 140K (a major surprise) but not for the people here, huh?
Why should I waste my time posting here. Recent history...everyone thought the rally would continue today....the people that took my adviced and went 100% G are all ready saved some good money.
Good luck and stay long.
MT
LMAO, I thought about 11-13 people were on your e-mail list? I thought I read that somewhere in all your "investing insight" ramblings anyway.
I don't consider going down a penny or two a rally killer. My invest insight is my allocations. Yours is basically posting what someone else says.
Want some investment insight? Thursday will be up, be in stocks. Until then? Not much movement.
Now don't go bashing me, I'll turn my laser beam on Hawaii.
"Yours is basically posting what someone else says."
Like the job report would come in at 140K.
Like the market will go down starting the New Year.
Like Monday (today) would be a down day.
Like the economy is slowing and inflation will go above GDP.
Yes I remember everyone saying the above.
I would put my returns against yours any day. Because I was up big today on short contracts...thank you for your money and playing the game.
Good luck!
MT
Skip wrote:
MT
On your head and shoulder pattern it failed to complete the pattern for the right side
when the dow broke above the 10600 level it . however it could make a double top to the same effect....
Today we held the gains from the week whick was a positive !
Tuesif webreak above 10740 that will signal more strength in the market ,
A break below 10700 it will show more weakness, If it falls below 10600 look out...
Chart attached
JMHO
Skip
Skip,
Your right shoulder is really the neckline:
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/images/hs-basicflat-cnet.png
Look familiar???
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/_/_dji.gif
MarketTimer wrote:
"Yours is basically posting what someone else says."
Like the job report would come in at 140K.
Like the market will go down starting the New Year.
Like Monday (today) would be a down day.
Like the economy is slowing and inflation will go above GDP.
Yes I remember everyone saying the above.
I would put my returns against yours any day. Because I was up big today on short contracts...thank you for your money and playing the game.
MT
Did you say Friday would be up big? Must of missed that one I guess. Briefing.com said the job report wouldl be lower. Nice try.
Today was a big down day alright. WOW!!! Still trying to find the post where you said the market would go down on the 1st day of Jan. Oh that's right, you only e-mailed two people.
You're returns against mine? Okay, let's do it.
I'm currently 100% S. You?
tsptorture wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
"Yours is basically posting what someone else says."
Like the job report would come in at 140K.
Like the market will go down starting the New Year.
Like Monday (today) would be a down day.
Like the economy is slowing and inflation will go above GDP.
Yes I remember everyone saying the above.
I would put my returns against yours any day. Because I was up big today on short contracts...thank you for your money and playing the game.
MT
Did you say Friday would be up big? Must of missed that one I guess. Briefing.com said the job report wouldl be lower. Nice try.
Today was a big down day alright. WOW!!! Still trying to find the post where you said the market would go down on the 1st day of Jan. Oh that's right, you only e-mailed two people.
You're returns against mine? Okay, let's do it.
I'm currently 100% S. You?
Guess not.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum22/1160.html
From briefing.com:
Time (ET)
Statistic
For
Actual
Briefing Forecast
Market Expects
Prior
Revised From
8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/emp.html)
Jan
146K
215K
200K
133K
157K
They had the over at 215K. Only a miss of 32%...not to bad for 30 economist working on the number. It took me about 10 minutes to figure out it was going to be a major surprise lower. Keep listening to the experts...
Not sure why you get your data...good luck!
Please stay long...I love to hear those stories....WAAAAAAAA...if I did not lose 30% I would of been able to retire this year......WAAAAAAAAA.
MT
MarketTimer wrote:
From briefing.com:
Time (ET)
Statistic
For
Actual
Briefing Forecast
Market Expects
Prior
Revised From
8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls (http://biz.yahoo.com/c/terms/emp.html)
Jan
146K
215K
200K
133K
157K
They had the over at 215K. Only a miss of 32%...not to bad for 30 economist working on the number. It took me about 10 minutes to figure out it was going to be a major surprise lower. Keep listening to the experts...
Not sure why you get your data...good luck!
Please stay long...I love to hear those stories....WAAAAAAAA...if I did not lose 30% I would of been able to retire this year......WAAAAAAAAA.
MT
Don't remember it that way, but hey, I'm sure you wouldn't lie.
No relpy to the other comments?
You said you weren't going to post anymore. Guess that was a lie.
Just had to prove....you be the liar...." Briefing.com said the job report wouldl be lower. Nice try." :X
Have a great day Tspliar....they have the over of 215K.
By the way can you please tell us why you are posting incorrect facts? That is not helpful to the people that do not know where to go to check your facts.
Good luck! That is about all you have.
LMAO, whatever dude. Step up or shut up.
Actually, I pulled money off the table without any input from you, MT. :P
On Thursday night, I decided if the jobs report was a surprise to the negative side, I'd bail out. Fortunately, investors went nuts after the bad report due to lower inflation / interest hike fears, so I came out pretty well. :D
Assuming the DJIA is a head and shoulders right now is simply a bearish guess. We won't have confirmation until it breaks out to the high side or to the low... which is why it's useful not to be overly exposed at the moment. If it breaks above the head and nullifies the pattern, then it's merely a matter of waiting for some weakness to buy back in. If it breaks down on the low side, then it's just a matter of continuing to sit in stable securities until a bottom is made.
Until we see some firm movement, the market is sending me a giant yellow light signal in the meantime.
tsptalk
02-08-2005, 01:46 AM
Worrying about being right rather thanhaving an open mind will eventually hurtany investor. I can't imagine a market timer (not markettimer, all of us) canbe successfulover the long termif they let their ego control them.I have been humbled too many times to think I am smarter than the market.Proving I was right never made me an extra dime. Trying to prove someone else wrong will naturally make you a lightening rod for controversy and distract you from what is really happening. The market is bigger than all of us. Stay humble. Stayflexible.
This is not intended to "bash" anyone. I'm just sharing what I have learned duringmy 20 years of investing and trading.
Good luck.
You are correct. My uninformed speak did not make anyone to stop and think...maybe the experts with their this is normal profit taking...were wrong. I just know in my heart certain folks would of been a deer in the headlight...and not did a darn thing.
Besides...this my response was to TSPLiar that I am only repeating others. Yes, all the other were saying the job report would be 140K and the market would go down starting the first of the year. And briefing.com predicted the job report would come in lower then 200K...I guess 215K is lower then 200K???
Have to take my post in context. However, I do read the market thou data and charts, not need or greed. Need, greed or thinking I am going to miss out on the next rally will get ya everytime...
Buy strength, sell weakness...buy good economic data (have we had any in the past two weeks) and sell bad economic data.
Good luck out there.
MT
And ebay was not getting smashed because of their raise in fee structure....hmmm they just put out they are rethinking that...WONDER why?
No that MT is a total idiot. Ebayis one of my best shorts of the year...thank you for the money and playing our game. Even warned you not to buy it. :shock:
MT
Yummy, Yummy:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/3m/e/ebay.gif
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/3m/t/tzoo.gif
MarketTimer wrote:
Have you read that IPOs this month will breaked a five year record??? Five years ago was Feb 2000. There are 20 IPOS this week....
I know I appear to be gloom and dome but the only one that does not read the charts and the data are fools.
Good luck!
MT
If the IPOs "breaked" a five year record, that doesn't impress me MT since the last 5 years have been fairly dismal. Yes, March 2000 was the last top, but the NASDAQ went down 80% from that level and its nowhere near where it was....
You don't seem "gloom and dome" to me. You seem wedded to a position and nervous that it won't come to pass.
MarketTimer wrote:
The mainreason I do not like posting here is people like you...all you do is bash but you provide no investing insight. What calls have you made? I do not remember you saying the job report would come in at 140K (a major surprise) but not for the people here, huh?
Why should I waste my time posting here. Recent history...everyone thought the rally would continue today....the people that took my adviced and went 100% G are all ready saved some good money.
Good luck and stay long.
MT
You seem to love posting here. Didn't you already say that you were leaving and never coming back several times? And MT, you ALSO bash people. You can dish it out but you can't take it. When you speak, it is "insight". When others respond, it is bashing. Try to lighten up, Morpheus. :P
MarketTimer wrote:
"Yours is basically posting what someone else says."
Like the job report would come in at 140K.
Like the market will go down starting the New Year.
Like Monday (today) would be a down day.
Like the economy is slowing and inflation will go above GDP.
Yes I remember everyone saying the above.
I would put my returns against yours any day. Because I was up big today on short contracts...thank you for your money and playing the game.
Good luck!
MT
Unless you were long the dollar, I don't see where you could have made a killing yesterday, MT. It was a flat day.
MarketTimer wrote:
are you freaking crazy...that is a like the clearest example of a head and shoulders top you will every see...it is like text book...........
I want you to stay long so that us hands on deck can hear your pain...
text book head and shoulders...it is like perfect:
left shoulder, head, right shoulder...elbow, hand, knee, floor...I can say no more..
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/3m/_/_dji.gif
Thanks Spaf and Tom. :) Yes, I see..he was discussing the DJIA for Nov-Jan. There never was a definite right shoulder that formed, IMHO. And as we all now know, it broke to the north after that...
But, I mean, this was only a little 3 month formation....nothingmuch to talk about... I thought there was talk of a monumental NASDAQ formation that would bring down the entire US deck of cards. I don't see anything like that on thehorizon. Isee the NAS in a very slow movement up.
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