View Full Version : Interfund Transfer 2/4 for 2/7/05
tsptalk
02-04-2005, 08:33 AM
The jobs report came in at 146,000, or 54,000 less than estimated, which just puts it in the "large surprise" category. Based on what I said in Friday's comments, I will lighten up for a few days to 50% G, 50% C, and look to pick a better spot to get invested again.
I took it a few steps further and bailed completely. I think this is a very bad omen for the month of February. It may slow the pace of interest rate hikes though - which would hurt the dollar and enhance the I fund...
Notice that the F fund is leading today. I mentioned on Wednesday that this was likely to occur if the job numbers came in at the low end.
pacer49
02-04-2005, 08:58 AM
I will pull back a little but not completely forsake the market. C=50, S=10, I=5, G=35
pyriel
02-04-2005, 09:01 AM
If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.
The dollar rally may continue for awhile yet. I'd like to see a top form on it before I move back into the I fund. A couple more points or so on the dollar index is probably as far as it will go.
Trade numbers will come out in a week, I think - I'll just assume they will be cruddy, and that will send the dollar down (that's what happened the last time, anyway). Hopefully the dollar will climb up into that 87-88 area on the dollar index in the meantime. That'll knock the I fund down quite a bit and give a nice buy-in opportunity before the trade data comes out.
USA TODAY
02/04/2005 - Updated 9:39 AM ET
Stocks steady after jobs data
Jobless rate falls to lowest level since September '01
By Susan Lerner, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks were holding steady early Friday as Wall Street assessed a weaker-than-expected January employment report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average [$INDU] was up 3 points in the opening minutes of trade to 10,596 while the Nasdaq Composite Index [$COMPQ] added 2 points, or 0.1 percent, to 2,059 and the S&P 500 [$SPX] edged almost 1 point to 1,190.
The Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 5.4 percent to 5.2 percent in January, the lowest since September 2001. Nonfarm payrolls, however, rose a disappointing 146,000 in the month.
Analysts said the headlines were disappointing but may not be as bad for equities as they would suggest.
"I think for equities at this stage of the cycle we're kind of hoping for Goldilocks type of economic data," said Bryan Piskorowski, market analyst at Wachovia Securities. "Anything on the super strong side I think would create fears that the Fed will have an increased proclivity to tighten. At this point in time to have job creation maybe at a slower than expected pace might be ultimately positive for equities."
After the "correction" we still don't have a confirmation on the primary direction of the market (bull or bear). But, the market has been moving up from the low of 1163 (S&P). Moving averages are under pricing, and the money flow is now back in the positive range. Am I missing something????
Rgds ?:?? Spaf
Maybe the bears went out for an extended coffee break? :h
Mike wrote:
I took it a few steps further and bailed completely. I think this is a very bad omen for the month of February. It may slow the pace of interest rate hikes though - which would hurt the dollar and enhance the I fund...
Hey, hey, HEY. Just 12 hours ago I was the stupid negative guy, the sky is falling guy.
Darn, I was off by 6,000 :X.
The 146,000 gain in payrolls in January - while the most since October - still fell short of economists' forecasts for a more robust gain of around 200,000 for the month. Jobs gains for December came in at 133,000, down from an initial estimate of 157,000 just a month ago.
The hit was the textile job loss...now with all the M&A the job report will continue not be that rosy....
pyriel wrote:
If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.
On second thought, they seem to love the jobs numbers...neither too inflationary nor recessionary.
The Fed is still raising rates. I don't see any let up. So, no...I'm not into the F fund right now. When the Fed stops raising rates..and even better, talks about lowering rates to stir the economy..thats F fund time.
However, I'll see if this rally has legs into Monday. I'm particularly impressed by the S fund's continued snapback. If so, I'll likely add some S fund. (Notice that the I fund has generally been underperforming the C and S).
... and based on market reaction thus far, looks like I'll actually profit by selling today. :shock:
saraho wrote:
pyriel wrote:
If what you guys and gal are saying is true then f fund is the way to go for the month of Feb. Saraho, what about jumping in to i fund like what mike said.I agree with Mike that it will help the i find for Feb, at least.
On second thought, they seem to love the jobs numbers...neither too inflationary nor recessionary.
The Fed is still raising rates. I don't see any let up. So, no...I'm not into the F fund right now. When the Fed stops raising rates..and even better, talks about lowering rates to stir the economy..thats F fund time.
However, I'll see if this rally has legs into Monday. I'm particularly impressed by the S fund's continued snapback. If so, I'll likely add some S fund. (Notice that the I fund has generally been underperforming the C and S).
If you look a the S fund chart it is rolling over...it will lead the rest of the market down...but I am probably wrong since I can not seem to get anything else correct ;).
MT
Well looky here. The dollar has taken off as I said it appeared to be doing. The dollar is now about 84.5 and the I fund is getting pummeled.
saraho wrote:
Well looky here. The dollar has taken off as I said it appeared to be doing. The dollar is now about 84.5 and the I fund is getting pummeled.
Sarah,
This happens every time at the G7...jawbone...research what happens to the U.S. dollar after the G7...what I am doing now is putting new money to work and purchasing foreign currency and silver right now...other countries are still fooled by jawboning because in the old days we would follow through....on the other hand...have you seen how fast foreign central banks have been dumping their dollar holdings....hmmm...wonder why???? Hmmm...will let you come to your own conclusions on this one.
:shock:
MT
Dakota
02-05-2005, 12:58 PM
saraho wrote:
Well looky here. The dollar has taken off as I said it appeared to be doing. The dollar is now about 84.5 and the I fund is getting pummeled.thats what I thought would happen, but I still think the c and especially the S is going to move at least as high as the peak of the last six months. almost put it in the safe mode but I expect some more profits out of the c and s. I can't sit in the G fund, and I can't(as high as the I fund is) take the chance on the dollar taking a hard bounce. There is still plenty of potential in the small and medium caps.
Show-me
02-05-2005, 01:46 PM
Help!
Did I miss something. The way I figure it is the I Fund gained .78% Friday.
Despite my recent cautiousness, there is an old and very true expression that you should never "fight the tape." The C and S funds are both above their 50 day MAs and are looking strong at this point. I'll see what the market action is on Monday. Assuming that there is no significant change, I'll likely add some S fund to my mix.
I'm currently 75%G, 25%C. I will likely move to 50% G, 25%C, 25%S on Tuesday...but Monday's morning action will give me a better idea.
The I fund continues to underperform the S and Cas the dollar continues to rise, so its not a place to be IMHO. The dollar shows no signs of letup at this point.
saraho wrote:
Despite my recent cautiousness, there is an old and very true expression that you should never "fight the tape." The C and S funds are both above their 50 day MAs and are looking strong at this point.
????? Huh??????? You may want not to be a navigator of a ship...because you are aiming for some rough waters...with a smile on your face...ICEBERG. NASDAQ has a long row to hoe to get above the 50 DMA....the trend is down...dead kitty bounce...plus believe it not 11B of NEW money came into the market on Friday...talk about buying on the bad news...you sell the bad news and buy the good news...greed and need again.
This is some ugly tape to me...looks like July 2004 :shock::
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^IXIC&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=m50,m20&a=
MarketTimer wrote:
????? Huh??????? You may want not to be a navigator of a ship...because you are aiming for some rough waters...with a smile on your face...ICEBERG. NASDAQ has a long row to hoe to get above the 50 DMA....the trend is down...dead kitty bounce...plus believe it not 11B of NEW money came into the market on Friday...talk about buying on the bad news...you sell the bad news and buy the good news...greed and need again.
This is some ugly tape to me...looks like July 2004 :shock::
MT, I'm totally in agreement with you with respect to the Nasdaq. But I'm not trading the Nasdaq.... If you're saying that the Nasdaq will affect the S fund, well when it does,I'll act accordingly.
Hi Sarah,
Hope you are well today.
The benchmark of the S fund is the Wilshire 4500 or theExtended Market Growth Fund or another name for it is the NASDAQ...they are all the same animal....so I felt I needed for you tothink about the TITANTIC...you may want to read my post to Tom concerning insider selling exercising their stock options now...
The S fund is actually the least favorable fund to be in this year...the C fund MAY be in the black this year but I do not see it....the market does not go up every year and with the gains the previous two we need to get back to some sort of normal average...those who can step aside when the market is down and buy with both hands when the market go up can reallymake some dough...those who know when to short the market when it is going down can really supercharge their returns.
God bless be safe and I hope you understand my dire warnings...that you may be buying into some serious selling.
You are a smart gal...please research "head and shoulders reverasal" and 3 Peaks and a Domed Top" you will see what is coming ahead. You should see the other boards I am on...The next rally Started on Friday....geez...we are still in a bear market.
:DMT
Oh yeah,
Remember your raise your hand for jury duty comment you made?? (I am sure you do ha ha).
I was walking through LAX about two weeks ago (from wonderful Hilton Head, SC) and this came over the loud speaker "Will the person that lost two hearing aides please pick up a white courtesy phone."
Hope that went well.
MT
MarketTimer wrote:
The benchmark of the S fund is the Wilshire 4500 or theExtended Market Growth Fund or another name for it is the NASDAQ...they are all the same animal....
The S fund is actually the least favorable fund to be in this year...the C fund MAY be in the black this year but I do not see it....the market does not go up every year and with the gains the previous two we need to get back to some sort of normal average...those who can step aside when the market is down and buy with both hands when the market go up can reallymake some dough...those who know when to short the market when it is going down can really supercharge their returns.
Come on, MT. Cut the nonsense. Another name for the Wilshire 4500 is the Nasdaq? Please stop fooling around... I understand that you're a "big picture" man, but you start blurring lines to peoplewhen your picture gets that big.
Everyone here now knows your view of the market, ad nauseum.That said, you will agree that youhave also been wrong in the past, no? Of course.Ronald Reagan once said of the Soviet Union thatthepolicy of the US is to "trust but verify." Similarly, while I trust that you believe what you say is true with respect to the future of the markets, I am attempting to verify it. Right now, the S fund is performing well. period.
"Cut the nonsense. Another name for the Wilshire 4500 is the Nasdaq? Please stop fooling around..."
S&P 500 (C fund) is the 500 largest stocks....Whilshire 4500 is all the others....Wonder where ALL THE OTHERS trade...on the DOW??? No that is 30 stocks...hmmm....hmmm....wonder where the other stocks would trade....
Hmmm...where would the other stocks trade....transport, utility....hmmmm....hey I guess you are right they other stocks that are not in the S&P 500 probably would not trade on the NASDAQ. That silly other major index that no one cares about...that crazy nutting high P/E, high beta, index...the U.S. government would not possibility have a stock funded indexed to that...no way...that is to dangerous....
I have no problem is you bash me...but you need to do your own research....if you can not figure out the Whilshire 4500 is benchmarked to the NASDAQ I can not help you other then using crayons, chalk and flash cards....what I am saying is if you bash me on the open board you better have your little stars lined up...
TheC fund benchmark is the S&P 500 and the S Fund is the Whilshire 4500 - which is the NASDAQ...so when you combine C and S you have the total U.S. stock market index....
What did you think the Whilshire 4500 was???? Transports, Utilities, what!!!
That kind of frost me. And you are another find example of why social security reform is NOT going to work...she seems like a pretty smart gal...she does not even know what index to utilize to make an investment decision...Geez Us Christ. WOW!!!! Take about handing someone a loaded gun...and saying the side with the barrel goes towards you.
Man overboard.
MT
Another example of a system that will be a failure...does not even know what the fund is indexed to :s...WOW!
From TSP.gov:
Earlier this year, Wilshire Associates, Inc. and Dow Jones Indexes agreed to jointly maintain and publish Wilshire's indexes, including the Wilshire 4500 which the S Fund tracks. As a result, the Wilshire 4500 has been renamed the “Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion Index.” It is called the Completion Index because if you invest in both the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Index and the S & P 500 Index, which the C Fund tracks, your investments will cover the total United States Stock Market.
So no, the S fund does not track the Nasdaq. The S fund tracks a larger index which has every US company sans the S&P 500 in it. Here are the 5 year charts of each... they are indeed similar, but the Wilshire 4500 did not fall as much in the bear market as the Nasdaq did (~50% v ~88%). The Wilshire 4500 also began recovering earlier and more strongly than the Nasdaq. As you can see, the 4500 is very close to passing its December high - and is about 15% shy of where it was at the beginning of 2000... the Nasdaq is still 60% off its high from back then.
http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/wilshire-com/wilshire-ssc.img?symb=95899w10&time=5yr&compname=Dow+Jones+ Wilshire+4500+Completion+Index&rnd=0.6976459091571 111&freq=1mo
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/_/_ixic.gif
BTW, MT, you gotta be less abbrasive toward people. Once in awhile, you post some decent nuggets of knowledge from that brain of yours, but it's hard for people to digest it when it's preceded by all that ranting.
As for the S fund, if its index cracks 503, it will make a higher high over December's. That's about 8 points from where it stands right now (approximately 1.6% gain needed). I will be watching closely to see if that happens.
Like I've said a lot lately - we are in a critical period here. A lower high = big trouble. I banked my TSP into G on Friday and will now wait for the signal, one way or another.
I still think C has more upside this year than S. This will especially be the case if the rate hikes keep coming (which they basically have to in order to keep our currency from totally being flushed down the crapper).
BTW, as long as we can keep the insults to a minimum, I think this is great debate. I'm tracking more charts now than I was before, and basically I'm more informed. I can now combine charting to the macro economic picture that I'm more well-versed in and make better decisions... which is really the name of the game.
Now everyone, chill out. :^
MarketTimer wrote:
...I can not help you other then using crayons, chalk and flash cards....
HEY! You're that little hand-grenade with a bad haircut! (Ross Perot)
[line]
My crayons show that these indicies, although similar, are NOT the same. Personally, I tend to be precise and exacting; little differences are differences nonetheless.
Mike wrote:
BTW, MT, you gotta be less abbrasive toward people. Once in awhile, you post some decent nuggets of knowledge from that brain of yours, but it's hard for people to digest it when it's preceded by all that ranting.
Agreed. You don't have to get defensive, MT, just realise that there can be other views besides your own and only time will ultimately tell who gets the "neener-neener" rights. :P
Mike wrote:
As for the S fund, if its index cracks 503, it will make a higher high over December's. That's about 8 points from where it stands right now (approximately 1.6% gain needed). I will be watching closely to see if that happens.
For example, I agree with Mike here, but I still hold my 50/50 S/I and will wait to see what happens. It is not that I think "I don't want to miss the next rally" necessarily, but rather "I don't want to get whipsawed" [like Tom, hehe].
Mike wrote:
I still think C has more upside this year than S. This will especially be the case if the rate hikes keep coming (which they basically have to in order to keep our currency from totally being flushed down the crapper).
I don't agree with Mike (and everyone else here as far as I can tell) on this one, but I do know that he can very well be correct and am keeping my eye on S vs. C/small vs. large-caps in case he is.
Mike wrote:
BTW, as long as we can keep the insults to a minimum, I think this is great debate.
Yeah! Having opposing ideas around you is healthy. I know I need others to smack me in the head every so often. Iron sharpens iron.
Rolo, spotting the exact time that C starts dominating is the tough part. S could continue outperforming for weeks or months - who knows... that's why I continue to track all three closely. :^
(This is also why I was split three ways until bailing on Friday).
I decided to guess less and go with what is happening more. Yes, it sounds pretty simplistic and self-evident, but I have to remind myself of it regularly, not to mention how much I paid for that nugget of wisdom. :D
i.e. "Small caps will outperform large caps until I see confirmation otherwise and therefore I will stay in S rather than C." It's a "trend is your friend" mentality.
We should come up with a means to track C/S delta and shuffle more to C from S as it narrows. Where did :dude:<-- Frizz B.go?
MarketTimer wrote:
I have no problem is you bash me...but you need to do your own research....if you can not figure out the Whilshire 4500 is benchmarked to the NASDAQ I can not help you other then using crayons, chalk and flash cards....what I am saying is if you bash me on the open board you better have your little stars lined up...
TheC fund benchmark is the S&P 500 and the S Fund is the Whilshire 4500 - which is the NASDAQ...so when you combine C and S you have the total U.S. stock market index....
What did you think the Whilshire 4500 was???? Transports, Utilities, what!!!
That kind of frost me. And you are another find example of why social security reform is NOT going to work...she seems like a pretty smart gal...she does not even know what index to utilize to make an investment decision...Geez Us Christ. WOW!!!! Take about handing someone a loaded gun...and saying the side with the barrel goes towards you.
Man overboard.
MT
Another example of a system that will be a failure...does not even know what the fund is indexed to :s...WOW!
MT, you're a fine example of what excessive trading leads to..burnout. *LOL*
If I put you in an oven, would that make you a biscuit?
Take your crayons, honey..or whatever they allow you to write with, wherever you are..and write this - Wilshire 4500 does not equal Nasdaq 100 or even the Nasdaq Composite Index. If you see them as all the same because they live in similar neighborhoods, then all the best to you, baby.
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