Job report

over or under and how much....the market expects 200K

I will take the under by 65K....

[Mike]

Probably won't be too good or too bad - I'd say within 20k either side of the expected number.

Cry of 'unfair'

U.S. textile makers and many of their overseas counterparts now argue that China will quickly draw most of the world's textile and clothing manufacture because of unfair advantages: a government-managed currency that keeps the price of Chinese products artificially low; Chinese banks that forgive non-performing loans, thus allowing money-losing companies to continue operating; and the absence of labor and environmental regulations that otherwise would push up (http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=24&k=push%20up) Chinese companies' costs.






Entire local economy suffers from job cuts (http://www.independentmail.com/and/news/article/0,1886,AND_8203_3518412,00.html)
Anderson Independent Mail (subscription),SC- 3 hours ago
... "It will definitely hurt us," she said ... One of the region’s biggest textile losses came last month as WestPoint Stephens announced 1,300 jobs at its Clemson ...




Our global closet (http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzcov304128920jan30,0,5816410.story?coll=ny-business-headlines)
Newsday,NY- Jan 30, 2005
... Domestic textile companies are trying to prevent that from ... system will result in catastrophic job losses in the ... to legislators and to the US Department of ...




POST-QUOTA TEXTILE TRADE STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE (http://www.ictsd.org/weekly/05-01-26/story4.htm)
Weekly Trade News Digest,UK- Jan 27, 2005
... Action Coalition (AMTAC), which represents US-based manufacturers ... quota expiry resulting in job losses in smaller ... recent weeks when six textile factories closed ...




[color=#0000cc]Upstate braces for more job losses (http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/business/10623112.htm)
The State,SC- Jan 12, 2005
... amounts of clothing and home textiles to US stores ... trade quotas would hurt “every company” in the textile industry, said ... Save a dollar, lose a job; that’s ...




NC expected to lose half its textile jobs (http://www.journalnow.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=WSJ%2FMGArticle%2FWSJ_BasicArti cle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031780020032&path=!business&s =1037645507703)
Winston-Salem Journal,NC- Jan 4, 2005
... The job-loss predictions are mainly based on ... protection through late October, and US textile-trade groups ... have created a perfect storm for losses of apparel ...




Textile industry faces more pain this year (http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/business/10547219.htm)
Charlotte Observer (subscription),NC- Jan 2, 2005
... Carolinas textile job losses slowed last year, but the lull is likely short-lived. ... 40 countries to ship unlimited amounts of textiles and apparel to US stores. ...




More job loss ahead (http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/opinion/10576863.htm)
Charlotte Observer (subscription),NC- Jan 6, 2005
Our state, already battered by manufacturing job losses, can expect ... of textiles and apparel to US stores. ... say this state, once the nation's textile and apparel ...

HANDICAPPING FRIDAY'S REPORT ON EMPLOYMENT
By JOHN CRUDELE

February 1, 2005 -- WALL Street is probably expecting too much from Friday's employment report.

Experts think the economy produced over 200,000 new jobs in the first month of 2005.
But for that to have happened the tally must overcome the massive assumption that the government makes for companies it believes have quietly gone out of business in January.

In January of 2004, for instance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics deducted 321,000 jobs from its survey to account for these business failures. The impact of these assumptions is never as great as during January.

After all the adjustments were made in January 2004, the government reported very disappointing job growth of just 112,000.
Without the assumption that dying companies were causing jobs to be lost, the job growth figure for the first month of 2004 would have been a very healthy 433,000.
Needless to say, newspaper headlines that the country was starting out 2004 with only new 112,000 jobs drove the Bush administration nuts.
Treasury Secretary John Snow wasted countless speeches explaining that job growth would improve. And it did — just as soon as the government changed its assumptions in spring.
That's when the Labor Department began adding large numbers of jobs to its count for new companies that were being formed. Suddenly the labor market looked to be booming.
But just to make everyone a little crazier, the birth/death assumptions cooled toward summer and the official labor figures were suddenly weak enough to become an election issue.
January and July are the two months of the year in which the Bureau of Labor Statistics believes that there are more companies going out of business than being formed.
For the economy to overcome these assumptions, there would have to be a sudden boom in hiring in the post-Christmas season when — in fact — a lot of employers are downsizing.
Friday's announcement that the nation's gross domestic product slowed in the fourth quarter of last year also doesn't leave much hope for a January job boom.
A disappointing jobs figure on Friday would be no more believable than all the good numbers that came out last spring.
I'm afraid this is simply a case of statistics disconnecting with the real world.
The government would really like all of its statistics to be viewed over longer periods of time. In fact, when all the final revisions are done — years later — the numbers are probably close to reality.
Ah, but that wouldn't permit Wall Street to place bets on numbers like the one coming Friday. So, how should you wager on Friday's number?
If you think Wall Street is right, perhaps you should put a few bucks into the stock market. Despite all the optimism you may have read (elsewhere), stocks have been beaten down in January.
And while that might be a bad omen for the rest of the year, the market could rally for a while on a good employment figure.
But big job growth could hurt bonds and cause interest rates to rise. If I'm right, the reverse will happen Friday.
Weak job growth — even if it's based on faulty assumptions — will cause stocks to decline more (because the economy will look weaker than expected) and bonds to rise (because rates will remain at today's incredibly low levels or drop some more.)

[vectorman]

What's your opinion Saraho. When investors say 'buy the rumor, sell the news'; could that mean with the market run-up this week, that even if by chance the job report is good tomorrow, there could be a sell off, especially with many saying sellthe ralley?

vectorman wrote:
What's your opinion Saraho. When investors say 'buy the rumor, sell the news'; could that mean with the market run-up this week, that even if by chance the job report is good tomorrow, there could be a sell off, especially with many saying sellthe ralley?
We had a run-up in advance of the State of the Union. IMHO, if the jobs report is excellent, we'll likely see a rally on Friday. However, if it significantly fails to meet expectations, I would expect to see a decline, with a rise in the F fund.

Sarah,

The weekly initial claims for January were HORRIBLE:

Jan 1 - 357K

Jan 8 - 367K

Jan 15 - 318K

Jan 22 - 322K

Jan 29 - 316K

By my crappy math that would around a gain of around 140K for the monthly report.

Good luck out there.

I was aware of that MT. That was the reason I posted theCrudele article.

No worries Sarah.

I will you all the luck in the world. Remember all the M&As means layoffs and job cuts moving forward....mass M&A happens at market tops.

I hope my info is helping you with your investments....the idiots that invest with me pay 3% for my rants :D.

I hope you are doing well.

MT

[Mike]

146k - higher than MT, lower than me...

The unemployment rate fell to 5.2%. Interesting.

Apparently its being viewedas Goldilocks' porridge...neither too hot (inflation) nor too cold (recession)...so we're getting a rally.:)

[SystemTrader]

MarketTimer wrote:
I hope my info is helping you with your investments....the idiots that invest with me pay 3% for my rants :D.




C'mon MT....is that really what you think about your clients??



John

Mike wrote:
146k - higher than MT, lower than me...

The unemployment rate fell to 5.2%. Interesting.

Here is something that is bad...the calculation was changed about (I am guessing here) four years ago...around November 2001 or so...that if are not receiving unemployment benefits, i.e. your 26 weeks or six months or whatever your state has the budget for....you are no longer counted on the unemployment number...this is to make things look much better then they actually are....if you go to places like Ohio, etc, etc or like me read their local papers you will see that unemployment (folks that no longer can received benefits because their time ran out) is horrible.

So that is why the job report comes in at 146K, around 160K people enter the job force each month, meaning that there is about 20K less jobs created for just the people coming into the job force and the umemployment number goes from 5.4 to the whole way down to 5.2 (that is a major drop)...that is because I BUNCH OF FOLKS...are really hurting now because they drop off the rolls and are now solely depenent on their nest egg...which is normally maxing out their credit cards and taking out a home equity line of credit...what is very bad moving forward is:

The average work week keeps dropping and the hour wage increases are not keeping up with inflation....what this means is recession is around the corner.

OK. Once again I will be wrong....:D. Many people have bet against me and they are no longer in this career field...two are selling annunities now...WOW that would be exciting...

saraho wrote:
Apparently its being viewedas Goldilocks' porridge...neither too hot (inflation) nor too cold (recession)...so we're getting a rally.:)
Sarah,

Do not be fooled. Here is the real reason:

NEW YORK - Stocks were holding solid gains midday Friday as Wall Street wagered January's weaker-than-expected employment report could mean a speedy end to the cycle of Fed interest rate hikes.

As you know from the last fed minutes there are deeply troubled by inflation...I know in my heart greenspan regrets the measured pass crap that he has to use because the last time he raised rates he wrecked the world economy (how is this freaking guy still there?). I know the fed would love to do a .50 hike but they are painted into a box...inflation is here....like the U.S. dollar it is being jawboned down. Just listen to Spaf and other folks on this board...prices are going up at a more rapid pass then their incomes. Giving our senior citizens a 2.1% social security pay hike was cruel and immoral...the reason for the low hike was to help the budget disasters.

Bottom line: The fed is not stopping for a long, long time. They would love to do a couple .50s in a row but just can not do it. Greenspan should be taking out behind the fed building and giving a good ass kicking because he is a failure at his job.

Do not be fool...sell into any rally boys and girls.

Good luck out there.

MT

SystemTrader wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
I hope my info is helping you with your investments....the idiots that invest with me pay 3% for my rants :D.




C'mon MT....is that really what you think about your clients??



John

John are you one of my clients?

I meant idiots as they put up with me only because of their greed...they are going to drop me like a used condiment package the first time I make a mistake and underperform the S&P, DOW or whatever other index they are gauging my performance against. As long as I am making bank in their statements they put up with me. I love living on the edge. I do not like working for them...but on the other hand I am doing what I love to do and if all the stars line up will pack it in, in about 24 months and retire somewhere. But what I can see since I do volunteer financial planning for lower income folks...is the rich are getting richer and the poor are not even getting by anymore.

Good luck out there.

MT

[Mike]

The argument "the poor are falling behind" only applies if the poor are the same group of people year after year. They aren't to a large extent. People make fortunes and lose them year after year - and that results in a tremendous amount of upward/downward mobility.

My income went up 33% in one year, so I am a prime example of this. :shock:

[SystemTrader]

MarketTimer wrote:

John are you one of my clients?

MT





Nope,I'm only the"client" of one person in the financial markets. He's a FOREX trader and I use his servicesA) to diversify some family investments and (B) because I can't trade currencies (or other alternative investments)activelymyself right now. Mutual funds and options keep me busy enough...

I understand where you're coming from, though,after reading your post. Have you tried to gentlyexplain toyour clients that long-term peformance is the key, not beating an index every quarter? It will take time, but may earn you some devoted, lifetime clients for your efforts...if you do outperform the market averages over time, that is.

Regards,

John

[Mike]

I read about a local partnership that has produced average annual returns of 18% over the past 10 years... they believe in the "stock picker" philosophy. Of course, the minimum investment with them is $500k... don't have that kind of ching lying around. :shock:

SystemTrader wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:

John are you one of my clients?

MT





Nope,I'm only the"client" of one person in the financial markets. He's a FOREX trader and I use his servicesA) to diversify some family investments and (B) because I can't trade currencies (or other alternative investments)activelymyself right now. Mutual funds and options keep me busy enough...

I understand where you're coming from, though,after reading your post. Have you tried to gentlyexplain toyour clients that long-term peformance is the key, not beating an index every quarter? It will take time, but may earn you some devoted, lifetime clients for your efforts...if you do outperform the market averages over time, that is.

Regards,

John

John,

Sounds good...however there are probably 200 or 300 young bright aggressive MBAs waiting for me to slip up right now....if I am going down...it will be in a ball of flames.

I mainly do currency xchange and community trading on the long side now...no money to be made anywhere else right now gong long so I understand the pressure your friend and you are probably go through. Just remember stops...which is hard to do if you own a couple tons of bullion but you know what I mean.

The people I deal with our bottom line guys and do not want to be told anything...the only e-mails I get is "I want to buy a vacation home next year in Nice. I need for you to pick up the pace." or my favorite..."I am only up 2% this week." If I point out the indexes fell 2% that week that is a no winner because I get back oil was up 3% this week...I should be up 3%....ahhh...

Good luck and be safe!

MT

[grandma]

MT: I am going to use this as an example of why I have a fear of privitizing Soc Sec, for myself, and for the millions who earn a lot less than I do.


The people I deal with our bottom line guys and do not want to be told anything...the only e-mails I get is "I want to buy a vacation home next year in Nice. I need for you to pick up the pace." or my favorite..."I am only up 2% this week." If I point out the indexes fell 2% that week that is a no winner because I get back oil was up 3% this week...I should be up 3%....ahhh...


These folks are bright enough to have a salary surplusthey can squander on wants. (No wonder MT thinks of Bulls as greedy! But they are only a small part of the working population.) What of those of us who have only an inkling of what the stock market is, and are struggling here to increase our tsp thru this website?The gov employees who are earning $15/hr will have to be Very Knowledeable to translate that into just a minimally adequate retirement, yet would be expected to do just that with their Soc Sec.

Neither them, nor I, are greedy because we want to build up our tsp - Breaking the 1K would be a Landslide Victory !!! As small as my Soc Sec will be, I would be :sVery frightened :sat this moment if mySS check was to be dependent on what I do here.

I am not sure I have said what I intended to say, or even if I have said all I wanted to say - but there it is......:( for what it is worth........ thank you

Grandma,

I understand your post.

You are concerned about having your TSP and your social security private account in one place.

Having your nuts in one hole simply does not work...if we are talking about your investments.

Keeping in mind the G funddoes not keep up with true inflation...that would mean you would have to go long stocks in order to be able to have any kind of comfortable retirement...this is going to be the largest disaster of our time.

It is all most like they forget we are in a bear market now...bear markets normally last 15 years...I would hate to be the guy trying to retire 10 years from now on my private account...REMEMBER and this is hard for you to believe...if you put $1.00 in the QQQs on January 1, 2000 you would have about .48 now...after inflation your $1.00 would be worth about .35 now. Yeah that will work.

I am not bearish because I want to be...I am bearish because that is going allow me to keep my job because I have to trade on what the market is giving me.

Good luck out there gang...put if I can state one thing...the market is not reacting to the news and we have the buy on the dip thing going again...buying on dips does not work...sell on weakness and buy into strength....averaging down is not wise.

MT

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
By my crappy math that would around a gain of around 140K for the monthly report.
Nice call MT!

[Mike]

... and yet the market rallies. :shock:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Monday reverse some/all of today's gains on profit-taking.

I gained back pretty much what I lost in the first week of January, so I'm going to be careful the rest of this month...

[tsptalk]

That's what the market comments were about today. Good reports get sold and bad ones get bought, but it usually takes a couple of days. Friday was strange. I expected a sell off by the end of the day. There is some serious momentum out there but I agree, it's probably a better selling opportunity. We can buy later.

I am starting to love this board...the other boards I am on they are buying into the rally (however I keep my mouth close there and just watch the train wrecks). I would say this board is going to have a great year.

Tom,

Appreciate you recognizing that there is noone out there that got as close as I did on the job report. I am horrible with human interaction...but you give me a set of numbers and say if you get this right you make money doing it....I have had girlfriends say I am like a calculator...great fun for me is buying groceries....and telling the guy before he rings it out what my total will be before he rings it up...I am kind of like Mr Spock with a bad attitude. But if you put $100 on the table and say trade to get it I will cut up a mother with seventeen kids to get it...if you play the game you got to take the pain...

:) But I love you guys.

I hope you all the best.

MT

tsptalk wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
By my crappy math that would around a gain of around 140K for the monthly report.
Nice call MT!
Tom,

Know whatis funny??? I beat myself up for about an hour because I was 6K off...I read the job report...WOW what a hit to manufactoring jobs...even after they changed fast food jobs to manufactoring....WOW...we are certainly turning into a service economy...that is where the growth is.

God bless and have a great weekend...

MT