My two cents, Tom,

[GTO1970]

(Tom Wrote,:) I normally like to buy weakness and sell strength so it was probably a mistake to sell Thursday's drop. That was the emotional side of trading taking over moments before the deadline. But I realize I have a lot of people watching and following these moves so I felt better being more conservative. The extreme bullishness I had during the last half of 2004 has been replaced by uncertainty and a more conservative approach. I don't even want to guess what may happen in the days ahead. I'd rather see what happens and try to react.

Tom, When you step up to the freethrow line, shoot the shot you've practice a thousand times and don't worry about how it looks or the way the crowd wants you to shoot the ball.

GTO

[Rolo]

<clap, clap, clap>



...hey! Who turned out the light?

[SystemTrader]

That's good advice, but I know where Tom is coming from. I'm going the other directionnow and getting out of stocks during a time when there's

1) A rally

2) Good news for the market (Iraq elections, "moderate" rate hike by the Fed with positive comments from Sir Greenspan)

3) Probablymore good market news tonight as the Presdent talks about privatizing social security

I"m quite the contrarian.

It could be a bad move on my part, but I'll stick with my plan/system.I think we allsecond guess our systems or decisions at times. Butif you have amethod of investing that's sound and produces good results in the long term, you should stick with it...even when you start todoubt yourself.

John

[tsptalk]

Tom, When you step up to the freethrow line, shoot the shot you've practice a thousand times and don't worry about how it looks or the way the crowd wants you to shoot the ball

I definitely take more into consideration when I make a transfer than most do. Ithink about whether I have enough time tosend out the email alerts,update the message board and get the transfer done, all within a reasonable time for those watching to react. Last Thursday morning, I think it was, I can within a hair of bagging the transfer because I had to leave my building, finding a PC and do all of the above, and time was running out.

I also consider if this move will confuse readers or contradict something I recently said. Ithink about having toupdate my allocations page, update the returns page, write about the changein the coming market comments, etc.

So when I make a transfer I can't just decide 5 minutes before the deadline and be done with it as someof you can do. (likenamor :D). Doing the allocation change takes less than a minute but the site has changed that for me and made me think a lot harder about whether it is a reasonable thing to do and whetherthe change is worthall of the trouble. :*

I'm not saying it's a bad thing. But it's tough to just "shoot the shot". But thanks GTO, for wanting me to just do my thing. I wish I could. :)

Like NASCAR, everyone wants to see the wrecks...

Keep up the great work.

MT

tsptalk wrote:
Doing the allocation change takes less than a minute but the site has changed that for me and made me think a lot harder about whether it is a reasonable thing to do and whetherthe change is worthall of the trouble. :*


Tom, although we appreciate your time, trouble and effort, you must first do for yourself what you are trying help everyone else do, that is, make a profit. As your situation has changed, and notifying folks of last minute changes has become very difficult, you may need to suspend last minute alerts, so as to make sure you get your changes in. With the 1-2 day delay, you need all the flexibility you can get, and losing these last couple of hours during the trading day are devastating.

While this site is a great tool for the rest of us, it should not be a financial liability for you, which with a work suspension already on the books, it is obviously costing you a great deal, only part of which we know. We all are responsible for our own decisions; so don't feel like you have to carry us on your back. Your good heart may ultimately prove the axiom "nice guys finish last." Only you can ultimately determine if posting these last minute changes is a "reasonable thing to do", but IMHO, I suggest it is not. You owe us nada! :-)

Thanks again for all your care and hard work. :)

[jeeperspeepers]

Hey, Tom, I ditto Chaplain's comment.

[tsptalk]

Chaplain wrote:
While this site is a great tool for the rest of us, it should not be a financial liability for you,
Those last minute transfers haven't paid off for me lately so maybe doing fewer transfers is a bonus.

Thanks for the kind words!
Tom

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
Like NASCAR, everyone wants to see the wrecks...

Keep up the great work.

MT

I don't know exactly what that means. We have done exceptionally well over the last six months... being bullish. ;)

I'm not a perma-bull, I go with the flow. Do you, or are you a perma-bear?

OHHHHHHHHHHHH major crash turning into turn two.....

DO you know what I mean now?????

I have been preaching on here to sell into any RALLY.

SELL INTO ANY RALLY. What do I hear in return....the charts and data look great...you are a fool for not being bullish.

Major crush in turn two. TSP statement going into the wall.

Like I told you - if you are not bearish now...you never will be.

Do not have a repeat of 2000 and be down 30% and say...HEY I SHOULD GO BEARISH.

Got two words for ya - Cha Ching....my shorts our up to my eyes....rack like a cat in a on the beach.

Major crash in turn three....darn if they keeps up there will be no cars left.

Good luck out there!

MT

[cowboy]

MarketTimer wrote:
OHHHHHHHHHHHH major crash turning into turn two.....

DO you know what I mean now?????

I have been preaching on here to sell into any RALLY.

SELL INTO ANY RALLY. What do I hear in return....the charts and data look great...you are a fool for not being bullish.

Major crush in turn two. TSP statement going into the wall.

Like I told you - if you are not bearish now...you never will be.

Do not have a repeat of 2000 and be down 30% and say...HEY I SHOULD GO BEARISH.

Got two words for ya - Cha Ching....my shorts our up to my eyes....rack like a cat in a on the beach.

Major crash in turn three....darn if they keeps up there will be no cars left.

Good luck out there!

MT



LOL! Yeah there will be cars left, I am stuck in G for Go. Don't worry this will turn around again. Thing is do not panick! Think about this market whats it going to do people. Yes market down, what do you need to do. It may look like your losing money but are you, not if you play it right. When stuck in a declining market just shift gears and buy the losing fund and gain share!!

Yeah try to tell them not to BUY into a rally but SELL into any rally and what do they do??? Buy into the rally...goodness me...the human mind....was all most like they forgot January all ready.

I love this board...should be renamed to greed/need and I am a bull, ram me with your horns.

:D Just read the data and look at the charts and take a step back and say...slowing economy, GDP less then I bonds, raising inflation, the dollar is dropping like a rock and the fed is tightening...I would be scared crapless not I AM STAYING BULLISH, pound chest...grab nads....gold is telling you the story...oil is near $50 a barrel and PEs and fed data is at 25 a barrel....run, run, run.

God bless.

MT

[teknobucks]

MarketTimer wrote:
OHHHHHHHHHHHH major crash turning into turn two.....

DO you know what I mean now?????

I have been preaching on here to sell into any RALLY.

SELL INTO ANY RALLY. What do I hear in return....the charts and data look great...you are a fool for not being bullish.

Major crush in turn two. TSP statement going into the wall.

Like I told you - if you are not bearish now...you never will be.

Do not have a repeat of 2000 and be down 30% and say...HEY I SHOULD GO BEARISH.

Got two words for ya - Cha Ching....my shorts our up to my eyes....rack like a cat in a on the beach.

Major crash in turn three....darn if they keeps up there will be no cars left.

Good luck out there!

MT


REALLY!!

what about the neo's?????

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats

i'm not worried just gota trunk monkey!



http://www.coloradofoam.com/trunkmonkey.html

[teknobucks]

MarketTimer wrote:
Yeah try to tell them not to BUY into a rally but SELL into any rally and what do they do??? Buy into the rally...goodness me...the human mind....was all most like they forgot January all ready.

I love this board...should be renamed to greed/need and I am a bull, ram me with your horns.

:D Just read the data and look at the charts and take a step back and say...slowing economy, GDP less then I bonds, raising inflation, the dollar is dropping like a rock and the fed is tightening...I would be scared crapless not I AM STAYING BULLISH, pound chest...grab nads....gold is telling you the story...oil is near $50 a barrel and PEs and fed data is at 25 a barrel....run, run, run.

God bless.

MT

get a grip dude.....it's da new world order!

http://www.virtuallylost.net



good grief MT......no more kool aid 4 u

Hello Tekno,

I LOVE THIS MARKET....likeshooting fish in a coffee cup.

The shssssssssss number on the job report is good....will be interesting to watch the last 30-50 minutes of trading tomorrow.

Good get em.

MT

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
OHHHHHHHHHHHH major crash turning into turn two.....

DO you know what I mean now?????

I guess the reason I didn't understand it was because your metaphordidn't have anything to do withthe subject wewere talking about.;)

[Timer]

MarketTimer wrote:
....rack like a cat in a on the beach.
Why does anyone here rise to his bait? Just ignore it - it's gibberish.

[Mike]

Index Value:
1,189.89

Trade Time:
5:00PM ET

Change:
http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif3.30 (0.28%)[/b]

This is the S&P 500 from today.

MT acts like the market is crashing when we see a drop of 0.28% - yet when it rose by a little more than that just yesterday, he acted like it was insignificant. I wonder why that is? I think the poor guy has bear psychosis... heck, he said in another thread that he didn't see any bullish possibility until 2015 - and that's after double digit gains each of the past two years. Heh.

The NASDAQ is rolling over and the markets follow the nasdaq...I believe that was down over 1% today...ho hmmm...

All that economic data crap coming in is just something to overlook and ignore....

Have a great day....and PLEASE PLEASE stay long. Whacking 10% off your net worth will shut ya up. Buy on dips!!!!

:^

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
The NASDAQ is rolling over and the markets follow the nasdaq...I believe that was down over 1% today...ho hmmm...
Up 1.4% today.:shock:

Check out the PMO crossover. Looks like more positive momentum to follow. Maybe I shouldn't have lightened up yet. Still, we are getting overbought and may get a pullback but I don't expect a bear market this month. 2130 may bethe next stop.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/naz.gif

Tom,

Can probably play here however the month long strong dollar rallywill probably make the trade balance report look rather ugly...which has turned into a major market mover as of late...

Moveover this is not a very healthy chart: The last time we had this look was back in July 2004 (and you know how you did that month).

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EIXIC&t=1y&q=c&l=on&z=m&p=m50,m20&a=m26-12-9

[Mike]

Actually, I think it looks more like late May - early Juneon that chart. The 20 and 50 day MA's are similar now as then, and the bottom chart is also reflecting a strong similarity.

On pure chart analysis, I'd say there's more room for upward movement - but probably only 2-3 weeks' worth at most (if the previous pattern matches this one).

MarketTimer wrote:
Yeah try to tell them not to BUY into a rally but SELL into any rally and what do they do??? Buy into the rally...goodness me...the human mind....was all most like they forgot January all ready.

I love this board...should be renamed to greed/need and I am a bull, ram me with your horns.

:D Just read the data and look at the charts and take a step back and say...slowing economy, GDP less then I bonds, raising inflation, the dollar is dropping like a rock and the fed is tightening...I would be scared crapless not I AM STAYING BULLISH, pound chest...grab nads....gold is telling you the story...oil is near $50 a barrel and PEs and fed data is at 25 a barrel....run, run, run.

God bless.

MT
Damn, I really hated be stocks on Friday. Thanks for the heads up MT. Let me know when you get back in stocks, that's when I'll leave............

Mike,

I believe the DMAs will not cross and the candlestick signal on the far left is very bearish moving foward...I would not get excited until the DMAs move above each other here. When you see the DMAs cross again...buy....now you will just be like all the other suckers that buy into this rally.

Hindsight it great but for foresite...use the charts. That NASDAQ chart looks really bad from on a technical view...really bad.

Have a great day!

MT

tsptorture wrote:


MT
Damn, I really hated be stocks on Friday. Thanks for the heads up MT. Let me know when you get back in stocks, that's when I'll leave............
Torture if you look at what happened in 2000 you will see the same thing happened...you should be counting your blessing that the market has recovered for you to exit.

I wish you all the best.

You have to do what you think is correct for you...however the econonic data and charts are telling me what to do...the noise of "the market rallied becauseof the hope thefed will slow" does not effect me in the last...because hope does not trump data and charts.

MT

[Mike]

Charting isn't my strong suit. :P

Is there a reason why you are focusing on this instead of the S&P? Is this considered a "trend setter" for the overall market?

I see the 50 and 20 both have downward trends right now... we'll know in the next two weeks or so if the 20 has bottomed and is going to reverse course or continue on down...

Of course as I said previously, I'm only making I fund plays in the near term - waiting to see a top on the dollar rally.

Mike,

So goes the NASDAQ so goes the S&P...so I focus on the NASDAQ...the concern is the sharp downward slope of under DMA (just like in July) that we are seeing now...

I fund is a bargain right now...what sucks is having Japan as the largest holding...but what can ya do?

That is the problem with TSP funds...if the NASDAQ sucks then the I fund will suck...the NASDAQ will also drag down the I fund...

I have found if you can figure out the NASDAQ you can nail the other two stock funds...

F fund is a disaster waiting to happen...G fund you do not keep with true inflation and that forces you to go long in stocks...that is my concern with social security reform...they will be TSP funds (managed by a foreign company no less).

Good luck. Great question...but I believe you know more then what you are letting on.

MT

[Mike]

I wanted to confirm my own theory on that.

At $15.30ish, I don't see the I fund as a bargain. I look to buy it in the $15-$15.10 range, which is roughly where a dollar index move to 87 would put it (w/ foreign markets being relatively flat in the meantime... no guarantee of that). With my buys at $15.09 and $15.06, I'll gladly take a ~$15.30 selling price given what the market has been through in the past month. Whether or not I can duplicate this on future movesremains to be seen.

I still don't think we'll see a total flameout here - but "gradual decline within a trading range" is something I am definitely anticipating over the coming months (with a late year surge that'll take us back into a flat to minor positive territory for the year, hopefully). I'll cautiously play these bounces as best I can. I just hope the dollar tops out at a time that corresponds fairly well with a short-term bottom, so I can make money on the movement that comes after... heh.

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
Tom,

Can probably play here however the month long strong dollar rallywill probably make the trade balance report look rather ugly...which has turned into a major market mover as of late...

Moveover this is not a very healthy chart: The last time we had this look was back in July 2004 (and you know how you did that month).

That's my thinking. Make a long play at the oversold conditions trying to pick up a rally but stay cautious and watch the support area. Right now we are actually overbought.

Playing the short term moves is tough so most ofus novicesshould concentrate on the longer term. You make a convincing argument for a longer term bear, I just haven't seen it yet, but I can be swayed when that support starts giving way or if we can't make a new high in the weeks ahead.

I'm not bullish or bearish right now. Just trading.

Good luck!

Tom,

Great. I am glad we are having a health conversation.

What I do not want see people the people on this boarddo is buy into the insider selling. This is 2000 all over again...the greedy bastards are tv saying ALL IS GREAT, ECONOMY IS GREAT...then you see the same day their were pounding their chests they were dumping 1-3% of their holdings...

REMEMBER, REMEMBER. The expensing of stock options starts on 1 JUNE 2005....do you not think they sat down in a little overpiced room and said "WE NEED TO ENSURE WE TAKE AS MUCH OF OURSTOCK OPTIONS PRIOR TO 1 JUNE AS WE CAN"???? Ding, ding...they are going to take all the stock options they can because moving forward stock options will totally go away - sort of like 401Ks....first they did not match...now they are going away...next thing to go away will be options and they do not want to be left holding a couple mil worth...they are dumping hands over fist.

If they get the suckers buying into this then they will be dumping more shares. Which will cause the downturn to be much greater and much faster...

God bless. The only insider you need is me :^. Because I am going to ta ya like they think and like it is.

MT