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tsptalk
04-02-2004, 10:10 AM
Rather than clutter up Frizz B's Account thread, talk about his system and transactionshere.

Thanks!

tsptalk
04-02-2004, 10:35 AM
I started doing the math, my #'s tell me never play the C Fund. If the markets are good the S and I out do the C and when the markets are bad the F outdoes the C. - Frizz B

Following recessionary periods, small caps tend to outperform because of low interest rates. As rates start to rise however, you will eventually see a shift to the larger cap stocks. Just keep an open mind about your "never play the C Fund" strategy.

Look how the small caps dominated in the years following the 1990-1991 recession. Then the large caps took over from 1994 to 1998.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html

Tom

Frizz B.
04-02-2004, 11:07 AM
True, when my #'s speak to me that the C starts outperforming the S I will change strategies, Thanks

tsptalk
04-02-2004, 01:41 PM
Would it be possible to take $100,000.00 play money and let Frizz B show how he would invest it over the next 6 months and show allocations ( before the 12 noon est deadline),transactions and returns. - plto6
Sure.I believe at one time Frizz said he was going to use $130,000 (I'm not sure if that was his own account balance, but I'd rather leave personal balances out of this anyway)so $100,000 (or $10,000 or $1,000) sounds like a good idea.Frizz B?

By the way, I'm trying to keep the actual Account threads clean by having only FrizzB's (or whoever else starts one) allocations and transfers in it. So please make comments in this "Frizz B Account Talk" thread. It might not work out this way but let's try for now.

Thanks!
Tom

Frizz B.
04-03-2004, 02:21 PM
Tom

It is not working, people go into Wheels and My account to see how what we are doing and they make the comment in our account, not really wantiing to leave the account that they read to make a comment in another mesage board.

Frizz B.

tsptalk
04-03-2004, 03:27 PM
I noticed. I wish I can move the post, but I can't. I can only move entire topics to new forums. I can alwaysdelete the posts butit's usually a post of some worth.

You can send a private message asking if the poster ifwould mind cutting and pasting the message into the "Account Talk" topic, then they orI can delete the original post. But I think this is going to be tougher than I thought.

Frizz B.
04-04-2004, 12:14 AM
I moved my funds onMarch 31, 2004 from the I fundto theS fund ($100.000)Then Iadjusted all my funds shares tomake each Fund equal, I like to start with equal amts to see how my fund is doing compared to the rest in the same time span. I am looking to increase my shares in my accounts. The more shares I have the more money I have. The date is April 1

F Fund = Shares 9775.17 x 10.23 = $100000

C Fund = Shares 8396.30 x 11.91 = $100000

S Fund = Shares 7501.88 x 13.33 = $100000

I Fund = Shares 7347.54 x 12.61 = $100000 with my point differential changing from 310 to 331 in the F Fund & 142 in the C fund, my #'s said to change to the F Fund which I did Friday April 2 to start Monday in the F Fund, as you will see I gained in Shares, I used the S Fund of $100825 And divided it by the share price to get my shares in each account and start fresh.

F Fund = Shares 9775.17 x 10.13 = $ 99022/ $100825 / 10.13 = 9953.13 F shares

C Fund = Shares 8396.30 x 12.01 = $100840 /$100825 / 12.01 = 8395.10C shares

S Fund = Shares 7501.88 x 13.44 =S shares stayed the same

I Fund = Shares 7347.54 x 13.60 = $ 99927/ $100825 / 13.60 = 7413.62. I shares

Hope this explains it better, I will update this on Monday again 100 % F fund for me. I believe the stock market will take a breather and give back some of its gains. I will see now if my number system is worth anything, all I have heard from everyone else is the market will still gain.

Enjoy, FrizzB

Wheels
04-04-2004, 02:36 PM
I understand the math but I don't agree with your statement that more shares = more money. Like my example above, if you've got 10,000 shares at $10 and I've got 9,000 shares at $12 then I've got more money. What if the F fund were to start declining. And meanwhile the C and the S were both increasing. If you wanted to sell your F and buy some C or S you would have to buy less shares. Would you stay in the F as it continued to decline simply because you couldn't buy into something else at more shares?

Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Dave

tsptalk
04-04-2004, 05:03 PM
I don't really get that part either. But maybe it's like that spreadsheet wheels, so easy to show someone, but impossible to explain via email :).

Frizz B.
04-04-2004, 07:46 PM
One more time, I started with theS fund and had 100 shares at 12.00 a share. I would have $1200.00 at the same time I wouldcalcutate that Ihad120 shares of F fund at 10.00 a share. The S fund went up to $13.00 a share, I still had 100 shares. I would now have $1300.00 and the F fundstayed at $10 a share. So now I make the change tothe F fund because my diffenential tells me to. So I divide the $1300 that I have in the S fund by the$10 a sharethat the F fund is at that day. Now instead of the 120 shares in the F fund I start with 130 shares which equals the $1300 dollars that I had in the S fund, now both funds are equal again after each transaction. Now the stock market drops, which has been the case since I have been tracking this. So theF fund goes up to 10.50 a share and the S fund drops to 12.75. The F fund went to $1365, and the S fund drop to $1275. Now the # differential says to go back to the S fund. I take the $1365 that I have in the F fund and divide that by the share price in the S fund $1365 / $12.75 = 107 in the S fund. I picked up 7 share. I have in my account $1365, if I had stayed in the S fund I would only have 100 shares at $12.75 = $1275. Now that I have move back to the S fund I start each fund out equally in shares and start again.

As I asked, do you have the statements of every transaction that you have made, when you moved back to the Fund that you started with do you have more shares in that fund than when you left it. If you did you made money.

I can't say that everyone of my transactions is right. I have to keep adjusting my point differential, I have already since I first started. I could at this point, by moving into the F fund, lose money if the Stock Market keeps on rallying. At some point I will say to myself that the differential has to be changed and hopefully get out without to much damage. Nobody has a fool proof system. But if the stock market takes a breather and gives back some of its gains, and the F fund stays the same or rises, when I move back to the S fund I will have more shares than when I started, that is my goal is to pick up shares, the more shares you have the more money you have.

Frizzb

Like Tom said, if you are not doing this on a excel spreadsheet you might not really get it until you do.

A PICTURE IS WORTH A 1000 WORDS

Wheels
04-04-2004, 08:23 PM
when you moved back to the Fund that you started with do you have more shares in that fund than when you left it. If you did you made money.

Not true. Example. You've got 10,000 of S at $12 a share for $120,000. You moved it all into C which is at $10 share which gets you 12,000 shares. While you are in C, it drops to $9 ($108,000)and the S drops to $10. You sell the C and buy back the S. You now have 10,800 shares of S (more shares) but it is worth less ($108,000). Contrary to your statement above you have more shares but you did not make money. The fact that you have more shares is the result of you making money, not the cause of it. Your making money because the value of your shares is increasing, not the number of your shares.

Dave

tsptalk
04-04-2004, 09:46 PM
I see what Frizz is saying now butDave and I talk % gain / losswhere Frizz talks shares.

Say I'm100% in the S fund and currently up 2% for the year.

If I believe the market will fall I'll decide to get out and go into 100% into the G fund.

The market and S fund do fall so I goback to the S fund. I'm still up 2% for the year (assumingthe G fund did not have a gain) and my balance has stayed the same.

This is where Frizz says he picked up shares (which he did) but his balance stayed the same.

Dave and I just say we are still up 2% as our balance also stayed the same, although we actually picked up shares also. I just never look at it like that because whether you have 100 shares or 10,000, it's percentages that determine your return.

Frizz B.
04-05-2004, 02:07 AM
The fact that you have more shares is the result of you making money, not the cause of it. Your making money because the value of your shares is increasing, not the number of your shares.

When the value of your share goes up you multiply that by how many shares you have. The value of your shares are a constant, it might go up or down according to the market but you multiply that by how many shares you have, if you have more shares the more money you have in your account. When you change from one account to another (100%) you still have the same value in cash, but the shares is different. If you make money and you change to another account your shares change.

PLEASE, TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR HISTORY OF TRADES AND IF YOU MADE MONEY OR LOST MONEY IN, I DON'T CARE WHICH FUND YOU ARE USING, THE SHARES ARE NOT THE SAME. YOU EITHER GAINED OR LOST SHARES FROM YOUR LAST TRANSACTIONS.LOOK AT THE SHARE PRICES ON THES DATES AND START WITH A $100000 ACCOUNT AND WATCH THE SHARES INCREASE.

Lets start with Jan 26 the Differential was 309 and I was in the S fund and changed to the F fund

DateFund Share Price xShares = $$Amt./ New fund share price = Shares (Diff)

J 27 S13.18x 7587 = $100.000 /F -10.19= 9911 (309)

J 30 F10.07 x 9911 =$ 99801/S -12.74= 7834(285)

F 12 S13.21 x 7834= $103,483 /F -10.12=10226 (309)

F20 F10.13 x 10226 = $103,586 / S - 13.02= 7956 (289)

M 2 S13.27 x7956 = $105574 / F - 10.16= 10391(311)

M 10 F10.28 x10391 = $106822 / S - 12.97= 8236 (269)

A 2 S 13.44 x8236 = $110692 / F - 10.13= 10927 (331)

My differential #'s showed me the day before the trade to make the trade. This shows that I started with 7587 shares of S Fund and increased it to 8236 shares of SFund in a little over 2 months a gain of 649 shares of S Fund. The F Fund started out at 9911 shares and increased to 10927 shares, an increase of 1016 shares of F Fund since Jan 30.

If I had just left my Funds alone S would be 7587x 13.44 = $101972, I increased that to $110,692 with my Differential System, a difference of $8720.

I do believe that nothing is a guarentee, but so far this seems to work for me. This will be my last explanation of this system. To me, it is hard to believe that I am the only one who can see this. I will keep my account up to date and we will see what happens.

GO F FUND[/font]]
To Tom, your comment on the G to what I see in the F

If I believe the market will fall I'll decide to get out and go into 100% into the G fund.


If you look at the Differential, and if you believe the market will fall the F Fund has gone up almost evertime in that period of the fall of the C, S, and I. I will play the F Fund and not the G. I do believe that everyone is entitled to their own opinion even if they or I am wrong.

eukrate
04-05-2004, 09:25 AM
This system cannot work. Although the value of your account is the product of the number of shares and the price/share, it's the price/share that varies daily - it's not a constant-
the number of shares in a fund changes when you reallocate your account, but the account value does not change then.
You need to re-examine your trading concept

Wheels
04-05-2004, 10:44 AM

Frizz B.
04-05-2004, 03:41 PM
I should not have used the word constant for the share price, it does go up and down each day, that is why we have more or less money in our account. But whenever you make a trade to and from Funds your shares either increase or decrease also, if you made money your shares will increase. I don't know how you can say what I'm doing doesn't work, I am up over 8 % for the year, how are you doing higher than 8% or less.

I believe what my system does is help me decide when profit sharing or the market corrections are going to happen. Nothing is for sure, but my #'s say the that we will in the near future the stock market will take its profit sharing, the stocks will go lower and the F Fund will gain. My differential is 331 now, and after today probably will go higher than that. So for today, I lose, but I do not play a day to day system, My trades have lasted up to a month before my next trade, and so far it has worked for me. If in the next 2 weeks the market still goes higher and my differential # soars, I will change my #'s again and deal with it, sooner or later the market will correct itself. I still believe we are in a bear market and looking for the stocks to keep rising, what I'm hoping for is that I can catch the market when it makes its corrections for profit taking.

Frizz B.

tsptalk
04-05-2004, 05:16 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
I still believe we are in a bear market and looking for the stocks to keep rising...

I assume you meant bull market?

Wheels
04-05-2004, 05:52 PM
Frizz - Did you even read my last post? I'm not dissing your system. In fact, there are parts of it that I think have some merit. I'm talking about your assertion that if your shares increase, you make money. That is wrong. Look at my example above. This is not my opinion, this is a fact.

Dave

P.S. Not that it matters for much, but I am also at about8% this year

Frizz B.
04-05-2004, 07:02 PM
Last edited on Mon Apr 5th, 2004 08:49 am by Wheels

Dave, this is all your last message read. Please send your message again on the shares. Anyways, thanks, I was reffering to Eukrate who said my system can't work, and Tom, I did mean the bull market, thanks. Well the stocks went up today, I lost, but I have time to wait.

Dave, just realized you are from N.H., I grew up for 15 years in Portsmouth, N.H. where most of my family lives.

Frizz B.

Wheels
04-05-2004, 08:56 PM
This is the example from an earlier post.

Example. You've got 10,000 of S at $12 a share for $120,000. You moved it all into C which is at $10 share which gets you 12,000 shares. While you are in C, it drops to $9 ($108,000)and the S drops to $10. You sell the C and buy back the S. You now have 10,800 shares of S (more shares) but it is worth less ($108,000). Contrary to your statement above you have more shares but you did not make money.

Frizz B.
04-06-2004, 09:19 PM
Wheels, I did not make money but I lost less than if I was with the S fund, If you had read all my words, I wrote that I had started looking only at the I and S, when the I fund took off in early December, and did not come back, that is when I decided to look at the C fund.

This is whenImentioned thatI noticed that when the S fund gained on differential the market was going up and when the C Fund gained, it was the start of the decline. I started doing the math, and started adding and subtracting. I noticed that when the S fund would lose 30 to 50 pts and the C fund would only lose 15 to 30, so yes I did lose money, but when I traded back to the S fund and the market rose I made more money in the S fund because I had more shares.

But after a couple of trades and noticing that the C fund was also loosing money, but not as much, that is when I decided to put the F Fund into the equation. To my surprise the F fund almost constantly would go up in value when the C and S were in a market downfall. When the stocks rose, the F fund would lose. This is why I changed my philosophy from using the C fund to only the S and F fund at this point. As Tom pointed out if the interest rates rise, the C fund will probably outperform the S fund, and at that point I will adjust to the situation. Nothing is set in stone, I still believe that ifI can adjust to the differential numbers and what they are telling me, thatthis system will work, it has done really well for me since Jan 15th when I started to do my trading. I have been in a learning mode since day one and keep on looking at my #'s and all the stock tips that everyone else has. I am always learning.

tsptalk
04-10-2004, 12:17 PM
Frizz -
Please try to upate your account prior to the deadline if possible. It's obvious you are notplaying games. Just trying to stick to the game plan we setup...
(http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html).

For example, a quick "50% C, 50% G" posted just afteryou make your transfer will suffice.

So are you in F Fund Monday because of the historicaldata I postedor because of your differential?

Thanks,
Tom

Frizz B.
04-11-2004, 12:08 AM
Tom, I understand what you are saying, it is hard for me to update before the trading deadline. I work at that time and I'm not able to make it on the board at that time. I will give an early warning saying what I will probably be doing. But as you can tell I took the biggest hit of all the funds. My trades will go along with the system that I am workiing with.

Thanks FrizzB.

Frizz B.
04-15-2004, 05:45 AM
Price Differential hit 300, I will put my funds back into 100 % S fund today, will hit tommorrow, I will update then. Was dissapointed that the stock funds took a big hit, which my points system showed me it would, but the F Fund also declined quite abit more than it has before, usually went up. So as we all know, nothing is fool proof. My point differential will now probably change with the market, will have to start calculating again. Take my extra shares in the S fund and move on, hopefully stocks don't have a huge gain today, while I'm still in the F fund until Tommorrow.

Frizz B.
04-15-2004, 11:33 PM
Planned that move pretty close. Missed by one day. Here is the history that I have been following:

Jan 26 pt differential was 321,.Had approxiamately 7 losing days before the market started climbing. Feb 4 diff was at 261

Feb 27 diff was at 312. Had approxiamately 5 losing days.

March 4 diff was at 320 had approx. 10 plus days of losing 3-20 diff was at 230

April 5 pt diff was at 341, the highest pt diff so far. We are basically at the 4th losing day, don't know when it will turn around, not worried about it. With all the talk of the up year in stocks I will wait it out and take my gains when they come. We are at 298 pt diff, butsince Ihave adjusted my paramatures on my pt diff I have made the move back to the S fund and will wait for the market to rise (hopefully). I have listened to Tom say, if the interest starts to rise the C fund should start outdoing the S fund. It will only take me one time to see this and I will adjust and learn.

Still I am very pleased with the 135 shares of stocks that I picked up in my 4 day trade from the S fund to the F fund back to the S Fund. VERY PLEASED.

Will update when the differential tells me what todo. No more one day trading for me.

tsptalk
04-15-2004, 11:52 PM
Thanks Frizz B. -
I do appreciate that you, and the others,put youraccount transactions out in the open.It really helpsus all learn newideas.

I can tell you are learning a lot about the market and your system will be a fine tuned machine one day.

I still don't see you mentioning the fact that using the G fund rather than the F when certain conditions present themselves could pay off. It's not really a matter of opinion as you mentioned.Even if you were "right" and the F fund had outperformed the G fund rather thandroppingsome,the better play whenthe economy heats up is to avoid interest sensitve investments. Bonds and small caps are interest rate sensitive. Sure there will be rebound bounces, but I think your spreadsheet may need another element to take advantage of all of the funds when appropriate. Your system will benefit if you incorporate this into your formulas somehow.

Thanks again. Keep up the good work.
Tom

Frizz B.
04-17-2004, 05:50 AM
You are making my point for me. You gained shares but you lost money. You will make money only when (and if) your share price increases.

Dave

Dave, you are not getting my point. Tell me when, every trade you made more money. The only way to do that, is to be in the G Fund, which you will never lose money, but will never make money except for the 1 penny every 5 or 6 days. Like Tom suggested and I have already started thinking about when to put into the G instead of the F. When my#'s increase or decrease to the point where It will be time to switch funds, I will ask Tom his opinion on the comment he made in my FrizzB’s Account talk, and this is what Tom wrote:

I still don't see you mentioning the fact that using the G fund rather than the F when certain conditions present themselves could pay off. It's not really a matter of opinion as you mentioned.Even if you were "right" and the F fund had outperformed the G fund rather thandroppingsome,the better play whenthe economy heats up is to avoid interest sensitve investments. Bonds and small caps are interest rate sensitive.

The point I am trying to get across, IF AND WHEN YOU MAKE A TRADE FROM ONE FUND TO ANOTHER AND YOU R SHARES INCREASE, EVEN THOUGH YOU MAY HAVE LOST MONEY, (IF YOU HAD STAYED IN THE SAME FUND AND YOU WOULD HAVE LOST MORE MONEY IN THAT FUND),

THEN YOU HAVE INCREASED YOUR VALUE OF YOUR FUNDS IN THE LONG RUN, AND WHEN THE SHARE PRICES INCREASE YOU HAVE MORE SHARES TO MULTIPLY THAT INCREASE BY AND YOU HAVE MADE MORE MONEY.

Dave you have your opinion on this, and if I have yet to get my point across to you on how I feel, and this is my account and how I feel is the point, that will have to do. On everyone of my trades this year, and I have made 423 shares of S funds in that time at a value of $13.02 per share, I have increased my funds by $5507, more than if I had stayed a long term investor and just stayed in the S fund only since Jan 1, 2004.

I had mentioned that I only will play the F fund and the S fund and Tom also wrote:

Following recessionary periods, small caps tend to outperform because of low interest rates. As rates start to rise however, you will eventually see a shift to the larger cap stocks. Just keep an open mind about your "never play the C Fund" strategy.

Look how the small caps dominated in the years following the 1990-1991 recession. Then the large caps took over from 1994 to 1998.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html)

Tom, I am listening, and learning, I will be writing to you on your opinions on the market whether you feel the S, C, or I, when my differential is at the low point, and whether you feel the F or G, when my point differential is at the high point and it is time to make my trade. Like I read from everyone else and I do not like being like everyone else, but I will say ,

THANKS TOM FOR YOUR CONTINUING ADVISE, IT DOES HELP.
Frizz B.

tsptalk
04-17-2004, 11:20 AM
Your welcome Frizz. I do think what you are doing is going to provide a good service toothers who are interested in being in funds with better chances of advancement, but who don't want to follow the market. They can follow my moves or they can use a tool like you provide that will let them see why they need to reallocate. The market is not an exact science and the "system" may not be perfect (yet ;)) but it will be far better for someone who does nothing in my opinion.

Of course there are the diversify, buy and hold proponents who would need neither of our methods, but at least they have a strategy. That's the key. And diversifying is a perfectly valid way to invest.

I think most of you alreadyrealized this. Pick a strategy you are comfortable with and keep up on it. If you don't have a strategy follow someone who does. Some of you want to learn and the more you learn the comfortable you'll be making your own decisions. If you don't want to follow the market and make your own decisions, using a tool like Frizz B's will make the decisions for you. Whether you like it or not, you will learn as you go no matter what you choose to do (unless you choose to do nothing).

Tom

Frizz B.
04-23-2004, 12:36 AM
I will be making the change, probably to the F Fund tommorrow. The differential went back to 322. That is the starting point for the change back to the F or G. I will not be able to let anyone know tommorrow, since I am at work and can not get on the computer to do my trading. I am hoping for one more good day in the S fund. Will update the FrizzB Account tommorrow night after the prices has come in.

CJ
04-23-2004, 02:41 PM
I'm also think my stats indicate a G or F fund move, but I don't dare to move 100%.

Reason: using the C Fund only, to avoid cludder.

Mar 5th --> C was 118% of the G fund
Mar 15 --> C was 113% of G
Apr 5th --> C was 117% of G
Apr 20 --> C was 114% of G
Last Night --> C was 116% of G

Looking at a slightrecent trend 118%, 117%, 116% indicates a possible downward move may be at hand. Maybe or maybe not I'm still leaving 10% in each C,S, I.
Have a good weekend.

CJ

Frizz B.
05-01-2004, 09:34 AM
If you are following my differential system, I am quite excited with my move. Yes I lost money on Friday but I am not worried about the market going further down. I traded once when the differential was at 269 and the differential went all the way down to 239, if you worry about this don't use my system. The differential turned around after the low of 239 and went all the way up to 341 before it came back. I hit it at 331. My system is not a day trader, I am hoping to hit the before the market has hit its highs and trade before the market has hits its lows and then wait for the market to turn again. If the #'s change and I can not go above or below the # that I changed at, (exp. my #'s are at low (295 - 300, high 310 to 320), and I hit the high and switch to the G or F and the differential starts staying between 307 and 340, I could not get back to the S. I will take the closest to the 310 change and take my share loss and change my #'s to accomadate the market switch, just as if the market started losing share prices.

FrizzB.

Frizz B.
05-01-2004, 10:14 AM
Sorry, Tom if I am bragging or being cocky, but here are the Numbers for the month.

F fund -2.4%, C fund -1.63%, S Fund -3.71%, I Fund -1.45%

My Fund + 0.69%

My trades were differential is in the ( )

April 2 (331), April 15 (298), April 26 (319), April 29 (283)

My percentage of .69% would of been higher if not for friday, but the way I look at it, it is a great start for next month, I am looking for a gain of 3% or better since the market took a hit on the last days of April, who knows.

FrizzB.

tsptalk
05-01-2004, 11:40 AM
Frizz B. wrote:
Sorry, Tom if I am bragging or being cocky, but here are the Numbers for the month.

Don't be sorry Frizz. Those are the facts, not bragging. And I don't see anyinch high red letters this time. ;)

You are fine and your system is doing quite well. I'm just passing along something that took me years to understand.

Mr. Duke
05-02-2004, 08:38 PM
FrizzB,

These are my spreadsheet numbers...I hope all my formulas a right

As of COB Friday April 30

F-fund -2.54

C-fund -1.52

S-fund -3.94

I-fund -2.31

PS... Dang this sight is more exciting than all the others...You all get excited over here........For what it is worth I will stick with my percents to calculate where I am at for the year. Just find it more difficult to follow each fund that trades at a different prices (affecting the # of shares you hold) But I follow what your doing...The primary variable that comes into play is when your Bi-monthly deposit goes in. Assuming you purchase more shares of a fund, Now you have to subtract that from what you think you gained to determine what you really gained. I'm confused, so I imagine so is everyone else. I'll track day by day, percent by percent, logging it on a calender daily, and the last day I will log down my final tally... Good Luck to all! And may God Bless

space
05-03-2004, 08:37 AM
Dear Frizz

I enjoy reading your responses, however a bit confusing...would you mind just letting us know what your daily allocations are for each fund --like Tom does? It would be interesting to see who does better!

Frizz B.
05-03-2004, 11:57 AM
Sure, my daily rarely changes by the day, when I make my change it is steady until the differential changes significantly. My changes have gone from 2 business days to 24 business days and the average is 7 business days. I will inform the night before what the differential is, if I am about to make a change. If I do not change, it is because the stock market in the morning before the trade deadline has change my #'s significantly that it would not make since to make the change. I can not get on the website in the mornings of the days I work and inform of my changes. So I will do the best I can. I am currently in the S fund. On Thursday it was at 283 and Friday 269, for my system this is the perfect time to get into the C, S, or I, which ever is your favorite, Your choice on that one. I will wait for the differential to get above 305 and make my decision at that point. I will ride the market out until that point or unless the #'s tell me it is time to change my highs and lows.

Will this help you?

FrizzB.

Lobo
05-03-2004, 12:34 PM
Frizz,

I know it must be here somewhere, but, can I get a copy of your spreadsheet? I tried emailing you a week or two ago, but not so sure it got through to you. I'm not even sure what I would be able to do with it, but, I sure would like to learn it. I appreciate all your input and help. Email is stanelyswartzel@yahoo.com Thanks (mailto:stanelyswartzel@yahoo.com Thanks) a bunch, and I would say good "luck", but, it seems you're not really playing with luck, I think you may have something actually figured out!

Thanks!

Lobo :D

tsptalk
05-03-2004, 05:49 PM
Lobo -
I have mentioned this before and Frizz says he will adjust, but this system will do well in an oscillating market (one going up and down with no real advance or decline outside of arange).

My concern is what happensif and when we have a sustained sell off or rally.It will keep you in the market during a selloff and get you out of a sustained rally.

This year's oscillating markethas been a real nice envirnment for this system. Once the market stops oscillating and starts trending, up or down, Frizz will have to make some adjustments. One possible change would be to employsome sort of stop loss.

Until we start trending however,this is a real good system to use.

Frizz B.
05-03-2004, 11:47 PM
I have already figured that in to my equation. For example: the low comes in at298 and lets say the trend goes between 250 and 300 and does not go back to the 315 I am looking for. Then I trade at the closest to the 298 as possible and start my high's and lows over. Sometimes you have to go backwards to move forwards. My #'s were at 280 to 310 when I first started and now they are at under 299 and 310 - 315depending on what my last trade was. Ex: My last low 3 was at 283, I will be happy to see a 310 differential and probably will make my trade at that time. When I tradedat the 331 differential, my low was between 300 and 305. I adjust with each trade. Hope this explanation helps. I do feel in all types of markets, I can adjust the #'s. Even in a bear market, you do have trends of ups and downs, just more downs than ups. Still have highs and lows. Adjustment is the key.

FrizzB.

Mr. Duke
05-04-2004, 09:28 PM
Frizz,

Are you currently 100% S ??? How is the "I" stacking up for the differential??


I'm still 100% "I" since last Friday...Probablyshould make a move to get out tomorrow a.m. to be effective Thursday....expecting another good recovery day tommorrow with a pull back on Thursday. However, I will stay in since it is early in the month.....My crystal ball is foggy, but my gut feeling is solid.. Time will tell :shock:

Frizz B.
05-05-2004, 07:38 PM
Yes, went 100% S fund at the end of trading day onThursday. I tried to send my spreadsheet through this sight but would never go through. If anyone is interested ingetting my spreadsheat, this is what I will try to do.Send me a quick message through your regular outlook and send it to vbfrizzb@comcast.net (mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net) I will send the spreadsheet to you that way. I am also going to start another talk line. I will call it questions and answers on frizzB's spreadsheet. We will see how this will work. I use the excel spreadsheet and have 2 or more worksheets going at all times.

Frizz B.

mail to: vbfrizzb@comcast.net (mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net)

Frizz B.
05-05-2004, 09:24 PM
Mr. Duke,

On the I fund, when the differential saysto move to the S fund for me, and this is kinda strange. If the differential is below 30 on the I to the S, the I fund increases over the S fund for a couple of days and then by time I change back to the F or G fund the I has usually gone lower in total value. Did not really notice this until you asked the question. So next time I make my trade, I now will look to see if I will play the I initially and then figure when to move it to the S fund.

Thanks for the question. I did start in early Sept. of last year with just the S and the I funds. Before they came out with the month history, I was getting burned with the funds. One would go ahead and then the other. When I made my switch it seemed to turn around on me. This is how I started to use the differential theory. In December, the I fund went ahead of the S fund and never came back. It is now going between the low teens and high 50's to 60.

FrizzB.

Mr. Duke
05-06-2004, 05:39 AM
I agree with the S and I flipfloping to see which was in the lead since last Sept/Oct..(not looking at stats , just to the best of my memory)...One month S would finish higher, and then the next month the I would finish higher...but does appear the I fund has a higher "beta"(volatility) than the C fund for sure and the S also. I made a move this morning (0530 Central) to get out of the I...and back to G )probably effective Friday a.m. Hopefully today will get me over 3% total and beat that 1st dropoff syndrome...than I will watch the S fund to see if it has a tendency to run a little longer.

thanks,

Dukester

Frizz B.
05-08-2004, 08:02 AM
If you are using my differential system, don't worry, this market has happened almost every time. I traded at 283 and it is now down to 261. It has got as low as 235 and then bounced back to the 310-340's. If you believe that we are now in a down market, wait till the differential gets back to 280-290 and then jump into the G fund, this way you have not lost any shares of the S fund. If you believe that we are still going to have a good year, wait till the Differential gets to the 310-320 range, then go to the G fund. I am going to start to use the I fund for a while. Seems everytime that I switch to the S fund, the I fund has 2 to 3 days of better gains and then tappers off. So for the first 2 days of the change, I will move to the I fund and then move it to the S fund. See what happens in a couple of weeks.

Frizzb.

Frizz B.
05-11-2004, 05:12 AM
I'm not sure I agree in what Tom's comment said that it is to late to get out. This has been an eye opener. I am adding a new part to my system. I to believed that it has to turn around but how long can you wait. I has broke my low of the 235. so if the market starts out again with losses in it, I will be transferring to the G fund until the first sign of recovery. I still believe that it will come backm but I will give up some gains if that is what I have to do to stop the bleeding at this point.

So the next time that I am in a fund and it takes off the wrong way that I had anticipated, expecially the losing way and the differential is more than 30 pts from my range, I will make the move, and see what happens in the future.

What is the saying, "Sometimes you have to go backward to move forward" or something like that. It was said in the movie WHITE MEN CAN'T JUMP. "Sometimes you have tolose to win."

FrizzB.

hunterklr
05-11-2004, 10:42 AM
Frizz:

What is your e-mail address? The above address isn't working.

Ken

tsptalk
05-11-2004, 10:46 AM
Frizz B. wrote:
I'm not sure I agree in what Tom's comment said that it is to late to get out.
"Too late" was probably the wrong way to put that. I just meant that my indicators were so extremely oversold that I would be a buyer if I were out. So, since I was already in, there was no way I would move out at this point.

Tom

Frizz B.
05-13-2004, 05:40 AM
Email address is

vbfrizzb@comcast.net (mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net)

I have sent to 2 people and have not heard from them if they did receive it or whether they had any questions on it.

Both mydifferentials say to play the market, the S to C is at 80, (it stayed above the 120 for such a long time did not know if it would come back to the 80's, which it did), and the S to F was low at 235 and has climbed since then, around 250. If everything goes to form the #'s should start to rise back to the (C) 110-120 and the (F) over 310, we will now see if my system holds water, it might now happen now but soon. The time of period for the change has been up to 29 days. In my own account, not the account that I use for this web site, I did change to the (I) 2 days ago. After I was asked the question about what I thought of the I fund, I went back to check some more #'s and noticed, that when Iswitched funds from the F or the G fund back to the S fund, the I fund (if thedifferential was lower than 35, usually outpreformed the S fund for the first 3 to 4 days and rose to a differentialbetween 40-50 and then the S fund would start to outpreform the I the rest of the way, and by time I changed back to the G or F, the S fundcame back to the 20 - 35 range.

So next time I make my switch back to the S or I from the G or F, and if the diff. islower than 35, I will use the I fund for the first 3 to 4 days and then switch to the S the rest of the way. See what happens.

In this account I am still 100% C fund.

thinks
05-13-2004, 10:23 AM
Frizz, I'll try emailing you again today as I tried before but got it returned back to me for undelivery. TIA.

It's really interesting reading about what your learning and how you continue to change and keep perfecting your system. I'm curious do you mean that you have more than one TSP?

tsptalk
05-13-2004, 11:02 AM
Frizz B. wrote:
In this account I am still 100% C fund.

When did you move to the C fund Frizz? Is this your real account or the model account? In your FrizzB Account the last transaction I see is 100% S on 4/29.

I am glad you added that "In this account I am still 100% C fund" at the bottom of your post because I have to admit Iget a bit confused by some of your posts and I'm not always sure what and when you are doingsomething. Perhaps you can make that part of each post, separate from your explanations... for example,
(Currently 100% C)

I do the same thing. I assume because I understand what I write, everybody will understand. Then I get a dozen emails asking me to explain what I meant.:?

Keep up the good work!

Tom

Frizz B.
05-13-2004, 07:55 PM
My appologies, if you notice the time it was early morning, just got up, still 100% S fund.

Mr. Duke
05-13-2004, 09:39 PM
Still 100% G....Got to see a little more positive action at this point bad days and good days are about even.....Granted the oversold positions look extremely tempting,however, I will continue to preserve capital and try not to make a buck in a negative market climate....Just like gambling at the blackjack table...sometimes when you're down you just have to call it a night and not try to get even......always itching to get back in though.....however, I have been sleeping extremely well lately.

Good luck to all....get some money back!!!!!

When is greenie speaking again?

Frizz B.
05-23-2004, 04:47 PM
Haven't posted for a while, haven't had much to work with, I changed at 283 and I am I still in the C fund, waiting for the differential to get above 283 and then I will decide which way to go.

Differential are now, based on the S to each fund

F - 247, C - 82, and the I - 46

Both the F and C and the I indicators say to be in the S fund. I am now using the I fund differential to decide whether I want to be in theS or I, when the diff starts to go below 30 I will start to look for the best time to be in the I fund and when the differential starts to go above 45 I will look for the best time go to the S fund. The differential has been going between a low of 5 and a high in the 60's since late December.

So for now I am still in the S fund and although my $'s have gone below my $100000 starting point. I am still above in my shares, and this is what I look for. When the shares prices start to go up. The more shares I have the more $'s you will make.

Frizz B.

Frizz B.
05-27-2004, 01:05 PM
Funny thing, I do not have any information on what the indices are, US money vs the world, so I have been reading info given. My differential #'s said it was time to get into the I yesterday, The differential was at 19, between the I and S funds. Before the trading deadline, the S fund was up significantly over the I fund, so I knew that the Differential would be lower that 19. I did not make my move because of the chatter on the I vs the S and C. Believe me, I blame no one but myself, it is my fault for not following the system that I created for myself. I was going to move this morning to the I fund, but with the upswing of the I and the down of the S, I did not.

My differential are 290 for the F fund, 111 for the C fund, and 19 for the I fund as of 05/26/2004. The I fund will probably be over 30 after today, which is the middle of the road, usually goes up to the mid 40's or over and then back down in the 5-20 range. When you are playing the S and the I funds this is a good range to watch and transfer between the 2 funds.

Next time I will follow my differential #'s and see what happens.

Frizz B.

Frizz B.
05-29-2004, 09:06 PM
Here are my #'s for the end of May F = 293, looking for 310 or better, C = 105, looking for 115 or better, I = 30, middle of the road, looking to get under 15.

These are the colors I use in my Excel, I do this to make easy access of what I am looking for. So right now I am sitting Comfortably in the S fund. I do see that quite a few people like to keeppercentages in different funds. I like to keep all in only one fund. Do or die, I guess, also it is easier to keep track of my shares. If the #'s do get a little higher, I will be moving everything into the G Fund from now on, instead of the F fund. I have tried the F fund twice and have lost both times. So my new rule of thumb, is when the #'s say to be aggressive, use the S Fund, or the I Fund, and when it the #'s say to get out of these funds, move to the G Fund. I have decide to stoptaking a gamble with the F Fund with the possibility of losing or gaining a little money, and be safe. If the downturn stays for a little while, I will pick up a point or two with the G fund. I will update later when the #'s tell me to.

FrizzB.

Rolo
05-30-2004, 08:35 AM
Frizz B. wrote:
Here are my #'s for the end of May F = 293, looking for 310 or better, C = 105, looking for 115 or better, I = 30, middle of the road, looking to get under 15.

If the #'s do get a little higher, I will be moving everything into the G Fund from now on, instead of the F fund.
So if any of these differentials rises past the upper threshold, then you move to G?

Then, whichever differential falls below the lower threshold, you move to that fund?

Meaning: You are in S now. Say the δ F rises to 312, you move to G. Later, the δ I falls to 14, you then move to the I fund and stay there until δ I is > 45?

[head spinnin' like a frizzb :oo:)]

tsptalk
05-30-2004, 11:19 AM
Frizz B. wrote:
Email address is

vbfrizzb@comcast.net (mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net)

Frizz B. -
I just noticed that your email has been screwed up because of my emoticon code for :t. I never knew why you were adding that symbol to your address.How come you didn't bring it to my attention? :)

When you put in an email, it adds, "mailto:"in front of your address. Because my code for thumbs down was ":v", your email showed :twhere it said mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net (mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net).

Sorry about that!

Frizz B.
05-30-2004, 12:38 PM
No, I use the (F differential to tell me when I will move to either the (S or the I) or the G fund). When I am in the (S or the I) this is when I use the (S to the I differential)

Sorry Tom, (JOKE), I see numbers not words

Frizz B.
05-30-2004, 12:42 PM
[head spinnin' like a frizzb :oo:)]


Just a *note* spinnin like a (frizzb) would be frissbee, my name is Frizz (hair like an afro that has no control (very frizzy) and my last name starts with a (B) hence Frizz B.

Frizz B.

Rolo
05-30-2004, 01:05 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
Just a *note* spinnin like a (frizzb) would be frissbee, my name is Frizz (hair like an afro that has no control (very frizzy) and my last name starts with a (B) hence Frizz B.


It was supposed to be 'punny'. :(

And it would be Frisbee :D

http://froogle.google.com/froogle_image?q=http://media.doitbest.com/products/812811.gif&dhm=27473015 <-- would make a nice avatar, eeeeh? huh? eh?



hehe...Now backto 'splainin' those things I don't understand: numbers...


[line]


Aw, thought I had it.

Attempt #2:

You are in S now.When the δ I < 15, you will move to G. Then, say δ F > 310, you move into S or I until δ I > 45..?

I hope that is not right, because if it is, I understand it less than I thought I had. :s

Am I the only slow kid in this class? :)

tsptalk
05-30-2004, 01:18 PM
Rolo wrote:
http://froogle.google.com/froogle_image?q=http://media.doitbest.com/products/812811.gif&dhm=27473015 <-- would make a nice avatar, eeeeh? huh? eh?


This is probably more what Frizz had in mind...http://www.tsptalk.com/images/fro.jpg

tsptalk
05-30-2004, 01:25 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
Sorry Tom, (JOKE), I see numbers not words

:l

Frizz B.
05-30-2004, 03:11 PM
Add a 2 year growth of beard to the hair and you have it.

Rolo
05-30-2004, 03:13 PM
tsptalk wrote:
This is probably more what Frizz had in mind...http://www.tsptalk.com/images/fro.jpg

hahaha! From my favourite show, too!

NowFrizz has to start his fund reports with, "Good news, everyone!" heh

Frizz B.
05-30-2004, 03:40 PM
Rolo asks

Aw, thought I had it.

Attempt #2:

You are in S now.When the δ I < 15, you will move to G. Then, say δ F > 310, you move into S or I until δ I > 45..?

I hope that is not right, because if it is, I understand it less than I thought I had. :s

Am I the only slow kid in this class? :)
__________________________________________________ _________________

NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO ,NO,NO

When the F differential goes above the 310 mark, I start looking to move to the G Fund. It depends on what my gut feelings are at the time. The last time I made the change, The F fund differential was at 331 and the next day it came in at 341 and then tumbled. I made my change back to the S fund when the F fund differential hit at 283 and it hit a low of 225, but I did not worry, (yes I did, but did not make any changes). Now the F fund differential is at 293. So I am still in the S fund for now. When I am in the S fund, like I am now, is the only time I will change tothe I fund. When the I differential (I minus S) gets lower than 25, this is when I start to look to make the change to the I fund. Again, I have to watch the funds for the day, if the I fund is having a better day than the S fund, before the 12 noon deadline to make the trade, I will do so. If the I fund differential gets above the 35 point differential, I will watch the funds for the day again to see how the markets are doing.

So my plays are either full G fund, this is when the F fund differential gets above the 310 mark, and then play it by your gut feeling on how high you want it to go before you make your move to the G.

When you move to the G, I look for the low mark around 290 and then again use your gut feeling on how low you want to play it. I changed at 283 and felt good about it, but the market went down to 225. If I had waited, a bigger profit. When the market goes belly up, the F fund differential has gone into the 230-240 range almost everytime. I have been playing it safe, next time I might not and see how low I can push it. Then I will move back to the S fund or the I fund.

Moving back to the S or I fund. If the I minus the S differential is, usually lower than 25, I will move to the I fund, and if it is above the 25 differential I will move to the S fund. while I am in the S or the I fund is when I will watch the differentials of those 2 funds. If I am in the S fund and the differential goes below the 25 pt differential, again gut feeling, looking to move to the I fund, if that happens I am looking for a 35 pt differential or higher, gut feeling, has gone in the 60 to 70 pt differntial. If it goes above the 40 pt mark, I will almost, probably, maybe, should, who knows what my gut feeling is at that point, will move back tothe S fund.

Rolo, I have been working on this since November and I am still confusing myself, butI am getting closer to Utopia.SinceDecember31st, I am now up a little over 10% for the year. If I knew then what I knownow, it would be over 15%.

Frizz B.

Frizz B.
05-30-2004, 03:46 PM
"Good news, everyone!" heh

Rolo, one more reply to you, the I fund differential has nothing to do with the move to the G fund. Only the F fund differential tells me which way to go, the G fund, the market has come close to its high and will be taking a downward spiral or the (S or the I fund), the market has hit its lows and is on the way up. The I fund differential tells me which of these funds I want to be in when the market is on its way up.

Hopes this explains it better, Frizz B.

Rolo
05-30-2004, 08:30 PM
http://www.traipse.com/road_trip/large/clouds.jpg

The heavens opened....the angelic voices sang... "Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!"

I got it! Whoo-hoo! So simple...like one of those Magic-Eye pictures..."It's a sailboat!"

10%...sweet! My YTD is 1.82%, but I haven't done anything, 65S/35I the whole time, so that is how much your FBO helped over "buy-and-hold-and-whince".

This makes perfect sense, I dunno why I didn't see it earler. You use the F as a steady baseline to catch when the stock funds are getting ahead of themselves and ripe for a pullback.

Since the I and S are similar in premise, you use the δ I to which fund is cheaper and move into it, same play, just two choices. Or would it be three choices, counting C?

One possible strategy: While in G, you could see how low the δ S goes and move into it on the first uptick, that way you will always catch it one step higher than the absolute low instead of best-guessing the bottom when you are uncertain.

Thanks for the tutoring! (Now I can continue to update your spreadsheet with a sense of purpose, heh.)

Frizz B.
05-30-2004, 10:43 PM
By George, I think he's got it.

No on the C fund at this point. When the stocks are going higher, the S and I outdo the C in the long run. The C catches up to the S and I when the stocks are losing, but the C is also losing, just not as much. It is your choice, your gut feeling, when you feel the differential best suits your personnal choice to change. I have been using the (F differential) 280 to 315, If I had let the 280 go lower, which it has much of the time, I would have done a lot better than the 10 % gain for the year, but again that is hindsight, monday morning quarterbacking, and that is illeagal, in this forum. What would of, could of, should of been. Only what you did counts.

For example, In my tsp.talk account, I am still 100 % S fund and waiting, I was not able to let the forum know in time that last week when the I fund differential went to 27 on May 10th, ( if I would have waited one day would of hit at 15), I was able to change my regular account to the I fund, It went to 37 on May 20th (if I had waited one day would haveswitched at 46)and I switched back to the S fund and in8business days Ipicked up a little over $1200 in my account while working between the S and I.If you see the differential in the S and I funds they are so volotile in the swings, May 18th, (19), 19th (45). 20th, (37), 21st (46), 24th (36), 25th (29), 26th (19), 27th (37) and May 28th (30). As you can tell in the switch from the S to the I fund, It is very easy to make the move and it could very well be wrong. This is why I say, if you are using these 2 funds to switch back and forth from, watch the market watch and decide that day before the 12 noon deadline.

Rolo, I hope this now works for you, and if it does you owe me lunch, I have 3 providers in my work office who now owe me lunch, that is there payment to me for letting them know when to make their moves in their TSP account. After their first 2 trades and they pick up in their funds, they get to buy pizza for my group of investors.

Frizz B.

Rolo
05-31-2004, 10:56 AM
Frizz B. wrote:
Rolo, I hope this now works for you, and if it does you owe me lunch...
Sounds good to me!

I'm driving to Niagra Falls this summer...see if you are en route...only, your location is blank. :D


[line]


To get my bearings, I put some averages on the spreadsheet. I think, maybe, using some statistical averages in there may make it self-adapting and give some intuitiveness for the gut feeling.

I got the MIN and MAX of each differential, then got the STDEV of MIN and MAX. Then I plotted the AVERAGE of the 5-day and 10-day moving average, weighing 5-day twice as heavy. The upper and lower bands try to predict the best threshold to switch funds by plotting one STDEV above and below the moving average. You can glean ahead to get your threshold range.

Jun 1st's ranges are 307-320, 116-122, 43-44 for high and 254-266, 83-88, 18-19 for low. I think mixing a rate of change in there somehow would add to its accuracy; that isn't calculated, but is illustrated with the graph by steep slopes intersecting the STDEV bands. In those cases, like now and in April, I would go two standard deviations, making the selling range 334-347.

Let me know what you think.

Frizz B.
05-31-2004, 01:56 PM
Rolo, I could not download your message. Go ahead and send it to the Email address that Tom gave earlier, and I will take a look at it. Then I will send my excel format to you.The F fund high for the F fund you have is at 334-347, if you noticed it hit at 331 and then 341 and then tumbled. I use the high around 315 right now, it could go higher, all depends. The low of 254-266, is good, I have used the 280-290, which was OK, but the differential went to the 254-266 range almost everytime, but I was playing real safe with my trades. I felt I did not want to miss any turnaround. I did get lucky on one occation and then the bottom fell out, and it has now come back to where I am making a little. Looking to make more in the next week.

The S to I differential is real close to mine. I really start looking at the 25 range, and then if the market shows the I fund losing ground to the S fund I will make the change before the trading deadline. Again, if you see the numbers, they change quite dramatically between the S and the I funds. It could go from the 30 range to the mid-teens range and then back to the 30 range all in a 3 day period. It could really be easy to miss each day and lose your funds. The S to I changes are alot trickier thant the G to (S or I) funds. This differential usually works in a 5 to 25 day range.

I am from Portland, OR so I guess I will have to wait on that lunch. If I ever make it to the Florida Area I will get ahold of you.

Now, Here is your assignment. You need to start a Rolo's Account and Rolo's Accoount talk using my system and throwing in your calculations on your gut feelings. Start with the $100000 base as of May 31st. This will be a good test on your gut feeling, everything is in the middle of the road and which everway you pick will be a tough one. Although the market is, I believe stillgoing up since we did just have the low's. The I fundjust gained heavily on the S fund, but it is what I callbase zero for the differential, which is the30 mark. Good luck Rolo on this, and I am really looking for that one person who finally gets me. Ihave had quite a few that just do not see this.

I started thinking why the F fund is such a good differential with the S fund. The Ffund ismoney oriented, I believe, it moves up and down onGovermental bonds, I think, not sure, but it might give the perfect differential to work with, who knows, just my theory. The S and I differential, I believe is the no brainer, when the I fund goes way ahead of the S fundthe dollar is weak, that is what I hear, so now the Dollar gains in strength and the S Fund gains on the I fund. When the S fund gets to the under 25 range, now the dollars is strong and it is now time to give lose its strength and time to play the I fund. Again, just my thinking.

Thanks again Rolo, and do not leave this forum, the last person to understand me, started using the percentage theory and I haven't heard from that person since. I really do believe in this system, and if we can help other people make a good retirement, this is what make me happy. In my excell calculations I have a work sheet that if you put in you age and the amt of money you put in each month, my worksheet figures out how much money you will have at 59.5 years and anytime after that you may want to consider retiring. It also works out if you make 12%, 15%, 17%, and 20 % each year, what your earnings will be.

Good luck again Rolo and email me on my regular email.

Frizz B.

Rolo
05-31-2004, 06:08 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
Rolo, I could not download your message. Go ahead and send it to the Email address that Tom gave earlier, and I will take a look at it.
Sent. The attatchment in the above post is a gif of the Excel graph...odd that it didn't show up.



Frizz B. wrote:
...if you see the numbers, they change quite dramatically between the S and the I funds. It could go from the 30 range to the mid-teens range and then back to the 30 range all in a 3 day period. It could really be easy to miss each day and lose your funds. The S to I changes are alot trickier thant the G to (S or I) funds. This differential usually works in a 5 to 25 day range.


Yes, the I δ is rather violent, heh. I think each fund needs its own parameters; I am playing with them at the moment. I think something like Bollinger bands may be better. I just have to find out how they are calculated. (heh, I really dunno know whatdahell I'm doing...I've always avoided 'math'.) I will say that playing around with this is giving me a better insight of what these various technical indicators mean.

The spreadsheet needs to be modded to calculate % return if a trade were executed when the δ crossed the threshold. I am no Excel ninja; I guess I will be buying a book. I should buy a statistics book while I am at it.

Frizz B. wrote:
I am from Portland, OR so I guess I will have to wait on that lunch. If I ever make it to the Florida Area I will get ahold of you.


Sounds good...There's a place here that has killer lobster-stuffed Mahi-Mahi.

Frizz B. wrote:
The I fundjust gained heavily on the S fund, but it is what I callbase zero for the differential, which is the30 mark.
Yes! That is why I added moving averages...to account for the broader trend, the drifting. It shows 25 in February...does that sound right? I'm using your experience to tweak the MA/StdDev.

Frizz B. wrote:
Good luck Rolo on this, and I am really looking for that one person who finally gets me. Ihave had quite a few that just do not see this.
...
Thanks again Rolo, and do not leave this forum, the last person to understand me, started using the percentage theory and I haven't heard from that person since.

hehehe...I know what you mean...most people don't know whatdahell I'm talking about most of the time.

I hate mysteries, so I was going to studyit and hound you until I got it, heh. The worst thing anyone can do to me is to call me on the telephone during the last ten minutes of the show Nero Wolfe. When I have the FBO down pat, I will ask you about your percentage theory, hehe.

Leave? No way! heh, I've been visiting this forum more than my own!

Frizz B. wrote:

I started thinking why the F fund is such a good differential with the S fund. The Ffund ismoney oriented, I believe, it moves up and down onGovermental bonds, I think, not sure, but it might give the perfect differential to work with, who knows, just my theory. The S and I differential, I believe is the no brainer, when the I fund goes way ahead of the S fundthe dollar is weak, that is what I hear, so now the Dollar gains in strength and the S Fund gains on the I fund. When the S fund gets to the under 25 range, now the dollars is strong and it is now time to give lose its strength and time to play the I fund.
I have thought about why you chose that, too, instead of the G fund or some other baseline and came to the same conclusion. Yes, F fund is high-quality bonds, whose value is inversely related to interest rates. When interest rates rise, bonds and small caps will suffer, therefore they will be in sync, or so I speculate. Plus, they may both rise/fall equally based on general economic conditions, so the F fund makes for a good baseline. The I δ is great for trading based on dollar strength, good idea.

Attached is a graph with MA(10,20,40) lines. I need to find a way to alter the bands to account for the rising/falling slopes.

Frizz B.
05-31-2004, 07:52 PM
Rolo, asks the excelspreadsheet needs to be modded to calculate % return if a trade were executed when the δ crossed the threshold. I am no Excel ninja; I guess I will be buying a book. I should buy a statistics book while I am at it.

You can easily do that take the dollar amt that you started with and subtract that from the dollar amt that you are at the moment of the trade and divide that by the dollar amt that you started with.

Ex. you start with $100,000 May 31st and you make your trades from the S fund to the G fund back to the S fund and you are now at 102,000 you would have $102,000 - $100,000 = $2000 / $100,000 = 2% for that time period. Just make sure every time you make your trade, you need to update the excel spreadsheat so that all the shares equal to the amt. of the dollars you are getting out of.

Rolo
05-31-2004, 10:35 PM
Nono, I meant for backtesting and tuning the MA envelopes. i.e. Whenever the δ crosses the envelope, Excel registers a trade. At the end of the graph, the trades are tallied and % gain produced.

thinks
06-01-2004, 07:54 AM
oh,I've tried emailing Frizz 3 times and each coming back so I'll try again today sometime.

tsptalk wrote:

Frizz B. wrote:
Email address is

vbfrizzb@comcast.net (mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net)

Frizz B. -
I just noticed that your email has been screwed up because of my emoticon code for :t. I never knew why you were adding that symbol to your address.How come you didn't bring it to my attention? :)

When you put in an email, it adds, "mailto:"in front of your address. Because my code for thumbs down was ":v", your email showed :twhere it said mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net (mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net).

Sorry about that!

oneyoungbuck
06-01-2004, 08:54 AM
I am a #'s person myself. My question is do you have to start out with all shares equal ($$ balance) and what is the differential for the I fund. So when you say S to C differential you mean this is when you move from the S to C fund? etc....

Frizz B.
06-01-2004, 09:05 AM
The differential is S fund times 100 - the C fund * 100. I do this so I have a full # to look at and not a decimal. 12.83 would be 1283 for the S fund and for the C fund it would be 11.84 * 100 = 1184. So 1283 - 1184 = a 199 differential

Frizz B.
06-01-2004, 01:35 PM
Oneyoungbuck, At this time I do not play the C fund, it is either the G fund or the (S fund or the I fund). I use the (S to C) differential. just as another guide. When I move my funds,YES, I do move 100 % at all times, just my philosophy. I am in 100% S fund at this pt. I am watching the(I fund -S fund) more closely now. My range is 0 - 45, with my 30 as myzero base.Zero base is where my middle ofdifferential is located.C to F differential is 290 - 300 is my zero base, the F fund differential has gone up to 341 but usually goes in the 320's before a fall. Then is goes down to the 260 to 280's, but has gone to 225.

So, at this point, I am going to play theI fund to S fund differential, right now we are at 30, middle of the differential, both are around even today. If or in the near future, the S fund shows by the tradiing deadline, that it is outgaining the I fund by a pretty good margin, I willmove my funds to the I fund at that point. I am now able to get online at work, so hopefully I will be able to update before the deadline, if not you will just have to believe me if I make myswitches in the TSP.TALK account. If this is not leagleTom, that is ok to, I will have made it in my own account and update on that. The rules say to show the moves before the deadline, butif I can't hopefully I will be able to update the night before if I am planning on making the move.

tsptalk
06-01-2004, 02:15 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
I am now able to get online at work, so hopefully I will be able to update before the deadline, if not you will just have to believe me if I make myswitches in the TSP.TALK account. If this is not leagleTom, that is ok to, I will have made it in my own account and update on that. The rules say to show the moves before the deadline, butif I can't hopefully I will be able to update the night before if I am planning on making the move.

Frizz, That'snot aproblem as long as we knowyourdiffrential # you are using in advance and the shares obviously hit that number. We will assume a move. Then you can explain it when you get a chance.

Also, how do you make your transfers? Do you use the Thriftline phone system?

Tom

Frizz B.
06-01-2004, 04:28 PM
I use tsp.gov for my transfers.

So here it is for tommorrow, I believe that the (S to I) will come in around 28 today, so if the S fund is outdoing the I fund tommorrow, and this will have to show at least a .50 advantage by the trade deadline. I will be moving my funds to the I fund. I am looking for a 320 differential for the F, and right now it is at 293 and after today should be close to 300. If the market has a good week, I will be looking to move the funds at the end of the week to the G fund. My last trade the differential was at 283, and although it went to 225, it has now come back to 293 and climbing. Patience, Patience, Patience.

tsptalk
06-01-2004, 04:34 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
I use tsp.gov for my transfers.

That's what I thought. So when you make your transfer, do you have time to write a quick X% this fund, X% that fund, in your account here while you are online anyway? Shouldn't take but a minute or two. Then you can give details when you get more time.

It is certainly not that I don't trust you. But if others can't do that, it would be hard to explain why you can. Your account and strategy is certainly serving its purpose and is sure helping others so I won't complain whatever you do. :)

tsptalk
06-01-2004, 04:44 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
So here it is for tommorrow, I believe that the (S to I) will come in around 28 today, so if the S fund is outdoing the I fund tommorrow, and this will have to show at least a .50 advantage by the trade deadline. I will be moving my funds to the I fund. I am looking for a 320 differential for the F, and right now it is at 293 and after today should be close to 300. If the market has a good week, I will be looking to move the funds at the end of the week to the G fund. My last trade the differential was at 283, and although it went to 225, it has now come back to 293 and climbing. Patience, Patience, Patience.

Its interesting that with all of the research I do, your spreadsheetcomes up with about the same information. Makes it simple. Like Rolo said, your numbers basically do what my overbought/oversold indicators are doing. But your formulas take the guess work out of it. Pretty neat.

Rolo
06-01-2004, 05:03 PM
tsptalk wrote:
Its interesting that with all of the research I do, your spreadsheetcomes up with about the same information. Makes it simple. Like Rolo said, your numbers basically do what my overbought/oversold indicators are doing. But your formulas take the guess work out of it. Pretty neat.
The FBO saved me from hacking up my TSP like I did my stocks today. :s

(Assuming my instincts are prophetic, but in either case, I am glad I kept TSP and regret reneging on keeping my run-up small-caps.)

Frizz B.
06-01-2004, 06:30 PM
I do have my account online at work now, so If I am not in or going to a meeting, I should have no problem doing it.

Nice compliment, Tom, thanks. I think the big difference between my differential theory and your reasoning, using the overbought/oversold indicators, is that I hold on and wait for the numbers to change and I only play one fund at a time, notspreading my funds into 2 to 4 funds. I can't see in my numbers to play a diversity of funds.

It would be interesting to know how many of the investers are trying to use my system. The more that I keep looking at the numbers, the more it works, for now.

My new craze, is using the S to I differential. I went over the last month, since the 31st of April, when I moved my funds to the S fund. If I had used the (S to I) theory thatI have been thinking about, a good probability of an extra $2000 to $3000 could of been made.Again this is hindsight, so now I will put it into effect.

If you have been reading my account talk, I have always said you have to adjust to the numbersgiven to you. June through November, the numbers were -25 to + 25, with zero as you (base zero), now they seem to be 10 to 45. Using 30 as your (base zero)

Rolo, does this mean that because of what you saw in my differential theory, you decided to leave your tsp in the Stock funds. If this is the case, I am glad I could help.

Rolo
06-01-2004, 08:19 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
My new craze, is using the S to I differential. I went over the last month, since the 31st of April, when I moved my funds to the S fund. If I had used the (S to I) theory thatI have been thinking about, a good probability of an extra $2000 to $3000 could of been made.Again this is hindsight, so now I will put it into effect.

I can see that now! If the S peaks and the I is at bottom, BAM! switch to I rather than G. If they converge again (S low, I high), go right back. That would be a sweeeet deal.

The I seems to be finishing a downtrend within an uptrend, it may be at a higher low right now. If I did not think the S would go higher (and I, in turn, likely lower), I would have switched today.



Frizz B. wrote:
If you have been reading my account talk, I have always said you have to adjust to the numbersgiven to you. June through November, the numbers were -25 to + 25, with zero as you (base zero), now they seem to be 10 to 45. Using 30 as your (base zero)


That is why I used moving averages to define the zero-base, self-adapting. You probably do that in your head, but I can hardly do simple arithmetic "in the air". :D Plus, my goal was to take more (emotion?) out of the picture so I don't hork it. I want the facts in my face as much as possible to keep me from doing something stupid. (Can you make these for all of my holdings? behehehe)



Frizz B. wrote:
Rolo, does this mean that because of what you saw in my differential theory, you decided to leave your tsp in the Stock funds. If this is the case, I am glad I could help.


Yes, that is precisely why. The differential graph paints a clear picture and I agree with the premise (hard not to); it makes it easier to speculate and within the context of the TSP choices.

I show a forward zero-base/differential/threshold ("forward" meaning, when my transfer would take effect, two days from now, on the assumption thatthe prices did not change--since they can go either way--and taking the current trend into accountwith the moving averages), as 276/300/303:^ S, 29/23/17:t I.

:^= rising, :t= falling, not bad, hehe. Tom, can you get some arrow "smileys"?



If I thought the uptrend were ending, I would have switched. Values stay within one standard deviation2/3 of the time and within two standard deviations 95% of the time. I think this week we will be in the second standard deviation, somewhere around 330 (share price around $13.25), then a quick pull-back to maybe 310 or 290 (~$13), then who knows what.

tsptalk
06-01-2004, 09:23 PM
Rolo wrote:
Tom, can you get some arrow "smileys"?

:} :{

Frizz B.
06-01-2004, 10:11 PM
Rolo, You seem to have it down pretty good, with a little variance of the lows and highs that I work with, which is kool, Can you start a Rolo Account that begins with May 31st, with $100,000. It would be kool to see someone else use my theory of Relativity, :dude:and maybe between the both of us, we can make the tsp.talk world Millionairs :^ totally broke :s or at least very squimish :shock:.

Rolo
06-01-2004, 11:31 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
Rolo, You seem to have it down pretty good, with a little variance of the lows and highs that I work with, which is kool, Can you start a Rolo Account that begins with May 31st, with $100,000. It would be kool to see someone else use my theory of Relativity, :dude:and maybe between the both of us, we can make the tsp.talk world Millionairs :^ totally broke :s or at least very squimish :shock:.

LOL!

hehe...Unified Fund Theory



Yes, I was going to do that today. I tried. However, I seemed to have underestimated my ability to figure out your share price worksheet--or, rather, your methodology. I got the worksheet just fine, but not how to use it, heh.

I started to make my own version (building something makes you understand it better), but got stuck on, "Okay, how the heck to I translate my trades into this?"

Also, why did you make most recent transaction on top rather than going top-down?

Oh, I did discover today that you can copy the whole row of share prices from TSP.gov and just paste it into Excel and it will fill in the five cells. Later, after I get my spreadsheet finished, I am going to try to paste the whole share price table since inception and plot it to see if my moving average addition needs more tweaking.

I also need a 42" LCD screen to display all this stuff! :D

(And yes, that would be a tax deductible item, too!)

Frizz B.
06-02-2004, 09:46 AM
It does not look like I will be changing over to the I fund today, The I fund is up over the S today so unless things change within the next hour, I will stay in the S fund.

Rolo, I first isert a line to show when I make my change then in the shares box above the date you are changing put the = sign, then click on the dollar amt that you have in your account and divide (/) by the Share price of the fund that you are moving into.

You can double click on any box and it will show you what the formula is for that box, whether it is = to the box below or the calculations for the box.

I also go top to bottom, it is easier to work it that way,when you open thespreadsheet at the begginning, it usually always goes to the top of the page, and if you notice, when you pull the tsp share prices, it does it in the same way.

thinks
06-02-2004, 12:02 PM
Have you always only used one fund at a time or did your system perfect that too? Got a question for ya and it's because of someone else's post about diversification in the roth fund... do you worry about that or do you feel since you have other diversification out there (I'm assuming you do) that it balances out okay.... just thought you could comment more on this to help me connect the dots in my head. Thanks.

Oh, one more time... what is your email? lol.

Frizz B.
06-02-2004, 02:28 PM
I only use one fund at a time, my system can not tell mewhere to diversify the funds. It is prettygood at telling me which fund to choose, alsoI am more of a gambler, I want all or nothing, and it is easier to do my calculations that way. If the S funds stays up for the day, we are getting very close to changing to the G fund, right now at 300, could be around 305 by the end of today, with the (S to I indicator still right around 26. If the stocks are doing well tommorrow, I will probably be moving into the G fund for Friday.

Frizz B.

Email address is

vbfrizzb@comcast.net (mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net)

Rolo
06-02-2004, 04:12 PM
Watch posting your e-mail address on sites...it will get harvested and become a spam magnet.

I recommend spelling it out, like "name at domain dot com".

Rolo
06-02-2004, 07:01 PM
Frizz B. wrote:
Rolo, I first isert a line to show when I make my change then in the shares box above the date you are changing put the = sign, then click on the dollar amt that you have in your account and divide (/) by the Share price of the fund that you are moving into.


Oh! So if you move S to G, you would take G's $ / G's share price to get # shares added to G and S's $ / .... no, wait...nguh.

heh

I take it this only works when moving all shares around..?



[line]


S @ 304/1StdDev @ 301/2StdDev @ 327

C @ 108/1StdDev @ 112/2StdDev @ 128

I'm looking at bailing at the edge of the second standard deviation. (Note that it rises as the MA rises.)

Frizz B.
06-02-2004, 11:05 PM
I take the Dollar of my account that I am in, the divide it by the share price of the fund that I am going into.

I will probably come really close to riding the s fund to the max, I was thinking of doing the change right around 315, but I don't want to play it safe anymore, made to many changes to early and had to wait for the turnaround. So if it does go above the 315 mark, I will wait till the S fund starts to take a big loss and then hide for the hills.

Rolo
06-02-2004, 11:39 PM
315 sounds good atm. Do you consider the zero-base "floating" upwards like I do?

Unless the uptrend loses velocity, I am shooting for just inside the top of the second standard deviation. I just e-mailed you the spreadsheet with the extra StdDev plots.

Shifting the TSP is harder because of the two-day lag. Ideally, we have to anticipate the top two days before it happens. It's hard enough to see it when it happens!

If we wait until the top, we will sell after two days of drops. However, if there isn't much of a drop, and we sell late, then we may very well be buying after two up days, at a higher price.

In any case, we can still beat its own average, and that is the point.

Frizz B.
06-03-2004, 05:40 AM
We have only hit above the 320 for a very short time and then droped quite significantly, will it go to the 330-340 range ???, Even at this pt. if the market start to show a significant drop before the trade deadline, might make the move. If it goes above the 315 range, then on the first sight of trouble, get out quick.

Frizz B.
06-03-2004, 05:48 AM
Hello to everyone following the (then FrizzB differential theory), it will soon be called the "FrizzRoloB differential theory". Rolo has added some nice features to my excel spreadsheet, and let me tell you, I do believe he's got it.

Like I have always said, I adjust to the numbers, well in this case Rolo has added numbers to my numbers, which will help me adjust. It is really nice to see someone else, see what I see, and working with me to create and adjust.

Thanks Rolo

06-03-2004, 07:22 AM
I think we may be on the same page Frizz, just take different routes to get there. I am going 100% G fund today to get the "guaranteed" .01 increase. Am getting out of S because I think it is about capped. I go by share price for my movements which seem to pretty much mimic your moves. My top cap for the S fund is about 13.1 or 13.2 depending on my mood. My bottom is about 12.5 to 12.6.

Good luck all!

Mike

Rolo
06-03-2004, 08:12 AM
Frizz B. wrote:
Hello to everyone following the (then FrizzB differential theory), it will soon be called the "FrizzRoloB differential theory". Rolo has added some nice features to my excel spreadsheet, and let me tell you, I do believe he's got it.

And the chart can be the FrizzB-Rolo Oscillator, or FRO! http://www.tsptalk.com/images/fro.jpg

(haha, Tom even named that picture "fro.jpg")

I just put your numbers into a picture for us mathematically challenged types. :^

Rolo
06-03-2004, 08:17 AM
mlk_man wrote:
My top cap for the S fund is about 13.1 or 13.2 depending on my mood. My bottom is about 12.5 to 12.6.

Hi, Mike. I agree with you if the market is still going to remain in a downtrend. If it breaks the downtrend, which I think this is the time thatit will, then the top will be higher. Tom has a nice strategy, not committing all his funds to either guess, but slanted toward breaking the trendline; that way he won't miss a run-up and and won't have a total loss if it does not run up. Why don't I do the same thing? 'Cos I have a hard time applying moderation in my life. :D

tsptalk
06-03-2004, 09:03 AM
Rolo wrote:
Tom has a nice strategy, not committing all his funds to either guess, but slanted toward breaking the trendline; that way he won't miss a run-up and and won't have a total loss if it does not run up. Why don't I do the same thing? 'Cos I have a hard time applying moderation in my life. :D

I just started that "discipline" approach and obviously for a reason. I would have probably been 100% Ginstead of25% if I used my usually approach. But I missed a lot of ralliesthat way in strong markets.This new decision will be tough for me since I am also an all or nothing type trader.

Frizz B.
06-03-2004, 10:01 AM
We did not hit the 310 mark, and so far the I fund is losing ground to the S fund, If this holds true for the next 45 min. I am transferring my funds to 100 % I.

06-03-2004, 10:05 AM
I agree Rolo. That's the about the stock market, you have to be "fluctuable". Is that a word or a Pres. Bush wordism? This time last year, it seem like a cap of 13.20 was anywhere in sight.

06-03-2004, 10:07 AM
I forgot two words, thing and didn't. My mind always out runs my typing.:^

Rolo
06-03-2004, 10:09 AM
Everybody's leaving me and my S. :( hehe

$EFV down .6 points, EFA down 1.1 points; is the dollar seems to be gaining. I don't know if I want the currency risk. If the dollar trends upwards, it could kill the I fund, oder?

Frizz B.
06-03-2004, 10:44 AM
I did make the move to the I fund for today, the hard part about seeing the I fund indicators on the tsp.talk line is that sometimes what I see does not always happen. It shows the I fund down .80 and the S fund down .49, so with this information, I am making my move.

oneyoungbuck
06-03-2004, 05:30 PM
I am looking at the averages you gave (S fund diff.) to the other Funds. The S Fund to I Fund is at 40, the High end, I thought the motto was Buy low sell high? Please correct me so as to better understand.

Frizz B.
06-03-2004, 06:03 PM
When I made my move this morning the diff was at 25 and the Wilshire was at -.39 and the I was at -.70. After the 9 am Pacific Time zone change the Wilshire went belly up an the I did not. The S to I is very volotile. I was trying to hit the perfect wave and got slammed into the cliff.

oneyoungbuck
06-03-2004, 07:30 PM
Oh, that makes sense now. Also, the differential from the S to C fund is at 98, which is below the differential (100), do we consider this or forget about the C Fund for now?

Rolo
06-03-2004, 08:41 PM
S and C at 284 and 98, just above the zero-base. Ouch. Tomorrow may not be any better. Hopefully it will undo today's losses. A nice wedge with a breakout would be nice. :D

Hey Tom, we need a smiley with egg on its face, I may need it soon, baha!

tsptalk
06-03-2004, 09:09 PM
Rolo wrote:
Hey Tom, we need a smiley with egg on its face, I may need it soon, baha!

lol...I shouldn't laugh. Been there too many times myself.

Frizz B.
06-03-2004, 09:44 PM
Yes, it did hit at 36 for the S to I differential, but tommorrow hasn't come yet, I will probably move back to the S and take the loss, but if the I outdoes the S again, even in a loss day, then the move did ok. The I has gone all the way to a 61, so who knows.

Rolo
06-03-2004, 11:10 PM
tsptalk wrote:
Rolo wrote:
Hey Tom, we need a smiley with egg on its face, I may need it soon, baha!

lol...I shouldn't laugh. Been there too many times myself.
hehehe, and its funny every time. I'm still hoping that today and not-so-much-tomorrow are the extent of the pullback.

06-04-2004, 07:06 AM
God I love the G fund. Made a whopping .01 today. Yee Haw!! :PMove over Warren Buffet, I'm coming baby!

Frizz B.
06-04-2004, 08:37 AM
Tom, just checking to see if you finally received the speadsheet. If it did not get to you, see if Rolo can send it to you, might have better luck.

Either way I will be moving back to the S fund. If you can time the S and I funds correctly, there is a lot of money to be made. My strategy yesterday, the differential was at 25 and at the time of my trade, in my calculations it had gone to 21. After the trade the bottom fell on the S fund and now it is at 36. Sheeeeeesh. Who knows, I can still make my extra shares today in the S fund it the I fund again outdoes the S fund. We will see.

tsptalk
06-04-2004, 08:51 AM
Frizz B. wrote:
Tom, just checking to see if you finally received the speadsheet. If it did not get to you, see if Rolo can send it to you, might have better luck.

I don't think I ever got it. But I have to admit that I am so used to deleting email with attachments because I get about a dozen or more virus type emails a day (that all have attachments).

I'm leaving town in a couple of hours so I'll just wait until I get back.

Thanks,
Tom

Frizz B.
06-04-2004, 02:07 PM
I sent if to you last night, when you get back email both Rolo and I and what we have update, hopefully one of us will be able to get it to you.

Frizz B.
06-04-2004, 03:07 PM
Hey Tom, we need a smiley with egg on its face, I may need it soon, baha!


[line]

Rolo, make that smiley with egg on it face, sunny side up. Who knew. Hope when the final numbers come out they are close to what the market shows, an extra .55 for the I fund.

Rolo
06-04-2004, 03:30 PM
Ah, wait 'til the egg hatches before you count that chicken. :cool:

Granted, the 'S' is for 'Standstill' and the I advanced today,I am curious to see what your gain is after your next transfer, be it into G on a downturn, or back into S.

oneyoungbuck
06-04-2004, 03:31 PM
When we watch the I Fund does it close at the same time the Market closes (4:00 pm eastern time) or is it earlier.

Frizz B.
06-04-2004, 04:53 PM
AT 6:37 this morning I moved back to the S fund, so by my calculations, the S to I differential went from 36 to 43, we will see. So hopefully I picked up 50 shares of S fund in one day trading.

Oneyoungbuck, I believe it does. If you look at the TSP funds index quotes they look like they all close at the same time.

Now that Frizz B account talk has hit the 2000VIEW MARK (that was my number), this account talk is signing off. If you have been following my differential theory, it will now be in a new account talk. Rolo has called it the FRO (FrizzB. Rolo Oscillator). Rolo has a real good handle on what I am doing, he has also added some interesting theories of his own and added it to my spreadsheets. So when and if someone has questions, Rolo or myself will answer as best we can.

Thanks all and signing off in the FrizzB's Account Talk, see you in the

F R O

Frizz B.
06-04-2004, 06:19 PM
So dissapointing, The I fund showed it had a .51 advantage on the S and when the numbers came in, the S fund came in with a penny more. Oh well, it could have been worse.

Rolo
06-05-2004, 07:09 AM
hehehe, You were just itching to make an S/I play, weren't you? You still have to wait for Monday's share prices to see how you made out on that, right?

Have you been analysing the graph? I wonder if there are definitive repeating patterns in it; it stands to reason that there would be, since it is based on events that do have recurring patterns. Notice the uptrend in I's lows.

Frizz B.
06-05-2004, 10:32 AM
Yes, when the market opened yesterday and the S was losing less than the I, at that point I made the trade, went belly up for me at that time. My trade went for Friday and starting Monday, I am back in the S fund. I lost one point in my trade, but since I have more shares in the I fund than I would of had in the S fund, I did not make as much. So I lost a little ground on the trade. (10 S Shares).

tsptalk
06-17-2004, 04:17 PM
Frizz,
Please confirm: You are current 100% in the G fund and have been since June 10th?

Thanks.

Frizz B.
06-17-2004, 07:16 PM
In the Fro Account, I said that I will probably move to the S fund, I have looked back and I do not think that I confirmed it, but I did move to the S fund on the 16th. My work really keeps me busy and some times I forget what I need to do. I am no longer working with this account, all my info will be in the FRO account from now on. I was in the S fund until the 8th and moved to the G fund on the 9th and moved to the S fund on the 16th.

tsptalk
06-17-2004, 09:10 PM
Oh, OK. Should we delete this account or do you want to keep it active?

Tom

Frizz B.
06-17-2004, 11:21 PM
Yes, you may delete this account