Continuing Resolution

[ILoveTDs]

I'm curious to get comments and opinions from members on what, if any, impact they think the upcoming deadline on the governments continuing resolution will have on the markets over the next 30 days, and the super committee budget proposal deadline will have on the markets.
I personally think both will take the issue up to the eleventh hour and the markets will be down overall due to "uncertainty" in the markets. However, this will be somewhat offset by retail spending in the holiday season, so it won't be as bad as July was.

appriciate any thoughts.

Thanks,
ILoveTDs

[ILoveTDs]

No thought huh?

[Boghie]

The Feds have been living without a budget since FY2009.

Investors are already looking at June - December of 2012. Who cares if our Senate Beclowns itself again by not voting a budget. This would be the fourth year of self imposed BeClowning. They are not going to put a Bozo The Clown Budget in writing. Also, who cares about the budget - you can watch the spending at the Monthly Treasury Statement site.

Who cares what a buch of lawyers (I mean politicians) promise. Cuts in out years. Thats quite impressive. Uh huh... You do realize Federal spending went up 5% in FY2011 - even with all the clowns BeClowning themselves. Again, who cares.

Instead, watch the bond market. Watch for Bond Vigilantes. If Congress and this Administration do not move toward a balanced budget quickly they will no longer control their borrowing costs. Remeber, we investors do not have to buy their crap. That is what happened to Greece, Ireland, and now Spain and Italy. Once you get swirling in the turd bowl the little political floaters no longer matter.

Now, there is an opinion:nuts:

[burrocrat]

If Congress and this Administration do not move toward a balanced budget quickly they will no longer control their borrowing costs... Now, there is an opinion:nuts:

Preach it brother.

I wonder who will bail us out when can't afford to do it ourselves anymore?

[RealMoneyIssues]

I wonder who will bail us out when can't afford to do it ourselves anymore?
We're good for the $$$ until the US Dollar is worth... $0

[burrocrat]

You mean like this?

16086

Hey, maybe if we make it cheap enough they'll think it's on sale and buy more!

[SteelSaving]

You know, if you start that chart in 1990 and make it worth $1.00, it doesn't look so bad.

As for the CR, the adults are in charge. :suspicious:
So glad the patients are running the nut house.

[burrocrat]

Yeah, and why stop at 2002, run it out a good 20 years from 1990, I wonder what the last ten look like? Any financial wizards out there up to the task?

[RealMoneyIssues]

Yeah, and why stop at 2002, run it out a good 20 years from 1990, I wonder what the last ten look like? Any financial wizards out there up to the task?
http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm

[burrocrat]

http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm

From the website:
$1.00 in 1990 had the same buying power as $1.71 in 2010.

I was never good at math but this seems a pretty easy one, so the value has dropped 71% in that time period?

Thanks for the research there cuz.

[PessOptimist]

It's not really as simple as passing "the budget". There are several appropriations bills that come out of the House and Senate committees. I don't know how many. There are some people on the MB who know a lot about the process. Some of the bills have passed the house. H.R 2354 is one I was looking at. Sitting in the Senate somewhere. Or maybe back in the house for a reshuffle/reload of earmarks. In some years some get passed and signed so some agencies can operate. Lately non ever get passed and signed so we have omnibus or specific continuing resolutions.

The super committee. Haven't heard much news about them lately. Both sides say the other side refuses to budge toward the middle. Both sides say they will not extend the deadline. Bet they just miss it and blame it on the other side. What's gonna happen to em? They likely never will release a plan. And all get re-elected. Because nobody cares.

CR, we got 10 days, no one is worried. SC deadline, no one is worried. If the media ignores both, the market will just truck on, up and down based on nothing rational we can figure out. If the media tells us sheeple to panic, the market will tank then climb based on the last minute rescue. Someone will make money off that.

I think the opinion you got from one is shared by many. Then the tangent toward the relative worth of the realm's currency and bonds. Is that really a tangential matter or the root?

All I know is that congress doesn't do one of their duties, passing the necessary legislation to give the country money to operate. I don't know if appropriations are a constitutional mandate. The budget submission process is.

I also know that my salary does increase over the years but my standard of living has not in these last many years. I need to work that credit thing more I guess.



I personally think both will take the issue up to the eleventh hour and the markets will be down overall due to "uncertainty" in the markets. However, this will be somewhat offset by retail spending in the holiday season, so it won't be as bad as July was.

Maybe. Good luck trying to predict and play that dip.

PO

[burrocrat]

Wait, I think I got the whole fun with numbers thing wrong, you don't times 1 by 1.71, it's a divide operation. 1.71 goes into 1 about 0.58 times so it's a 42% loss in 20 years, wow that was fast, sounds about right. But what does it look like? (don't pay attention to the peaks and valleys, I couldn't figure out how to draw a straight line with my graphic software so the in-between is just jitters but the end result is the same).

16111

[burrocrat]

There's probably some standard formula for representing slope that I'm not aware of, but it occurs to me that both the x and y axis should have equal heighth and width. uh oh, that is not good.

16112

[burrocrat]

So now you is a graduate of burro econ101. Don't go displaying that certificate too proudly, it won't get you anywhere.

Bottom line is our investments have to overcome the decline in purchasing power before we break even. That is a hard game to win, if you play by the rules. Which might explain why so many with money don't.

Don't worry, all those good works and faith will get you something in the end, except I don't like what I'm getting in the end here.

I think maybe it all started when the congress critters way back voted to franchise their international banker patrons the authority to charge usury for access to our own money. Since then it's just all been a dream, or maybe a fractional reserve nightmare, a race to the bottom, and it's our bottoms at the finish line. Wheee, Wheeeee!

Now I'm no rocket scientist, but common sense tells me it's rapidly becoming worth less.

[nnuut]

The New World Order is breaking the Bank!

[Frixxxx]

There's probably some standard formula for representing slope that I'm not aware of, but it occurs to me that both the x and y axis should have equal heighth and width. uh oh, that is not good.


The slope (Y2-Y1)/X2-X1) is not the discussion here (straight lines have slope). What you have displayed is a trend analysis. Now, what you do with that information is up to you. If you see that the trend is the value of the dollar is approaching zero, then your investment engine is to short the dollar on currencies that are strong against the dollar. But since we're a global market and changing economies, then you would have to keep an eye on all those countries and make moves in and out of each currency when markets are affected.

[James48843]

The current continuing resolution lasts until November 18.


H.R.2608 -- Continuing Appropriations Act, 2012 (Enrolled Bill [Final as Passed Both House and Senate] - ENR)

--H.R.2608--
H.R.2608
One Hundred Twelfth Congress
of the
United States of America
AT THE FIRST SESSION
Begun and held at the City of Washington on Wednesday,
the fifth day of January, two thousand and eleven
An Act
Making continuing appropriations for fiscal year 2012, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the following sums are hereby appropriated, out of any money in the Treasury not otherwise appropriated, and out of applicable corporate or other revenues, receipts, and funds, for the several departments, agencies, corporations, and other organizational units of Government for fiscal year 2012, and for other purposes, namely:


Sec. 101. (a) Such amounts as may be necessary, at a rate for operations as provided in the applicable appropriations Acts for fiscal year 2011 and under the authority and conditions provided in such Acts, for continuing projects or activities (including the costs of direct loans and loan guarantees) that are not otherwise specifically provided for in this Act, that were conducted in fiscal year 2011, and for which appropriations, funds, or other authority were made available in the following appropriations Acts:




(1) The Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2011 (division A of Public Law 112-10).





(2) The Full-Year Continuing Appropriations Act, 2011 (division B of Public Law 112-10).



(b) The rate for operations provided by subsection (a) is hereby reduced by 1.503 percent.


Sec. 102. (a) No appropriation or funds made available or authority granted pursuant to section 101 for the Department of Defense shall be used for (1) the new production of items not funded for production in fiscal year 2011 or prior years; (2) the increase in production rates above those sustained with fiscal year 2011 funds; or (3) the initiation, resumption, or continuation of any project, activity, operation, or organization (defined as any project, subproject, activity, budget activity, program element, and subprogram within a program element, and for any investment items defined as a P-1 line item in a budget activity within an appropriation account and an R-1 line item that includes a program element and subprogram element within an appropriation account) for which appropriations, funds, or other authority were not available during fiscal year 2011.


(b) No appropriation or funds made available or authority granted pursuant to section 101 for the Department of Defense shall be used to initiate multi-year procurements utilizing advance procurement funding for economic order quantity procurement unless specifically appropriated later.


Sec. 103. Appropriations made by section 101 shall be available to the extent and in the manner that would be provided by the pertinent appropriations Act.


Sec. 104. Except as otherwise provided in section 102, no appropriation or funds made available or authority granted pursuant to section 101 shall be used to initiate or resume any project or activity for which appropriations, funds, or other authority were not available during fiscal year 2011.


Sec. 105. Appropriations made and authority granted pursuant to this Act shall cover all obligations or expenditures incurred for any project or activity during the period for which funds or authority for such project or activity are available under this Act.


Sec. 106. Unless otherwise provided for in this Act or in the applicable appropriations Act for fiscal year 2012, appropriations and funds made available and authority granted pursuant to this Act shall be available until whichever of the following first occurs: (1) the enactment into law of an appropriation for any project or activity provided for in this Act; (2) the enactment into law of the applicable appropriations Act for fiscal year 2012 without any provision for such project or activity; or (3) November 18, 2011.....


so we're good until the 18th.

After than, all bets are off. We'll see.

Track the latest status of funding bills here:

http://thomas.loc.gov/home/approp/app12.html

Enjoy.

[nasa1974]

Thanks James

[ILoveTDs]

CR expires 18 November, got it. So market will be up Monday and Tuesday because Italy gets fixed over the weekend, down Wens/Thurs next week becuase of CR.

[burrocrat]

The slope (Y2-Y1)/X2-X1) is not the discussion here (straight lines have slope). What you have displayed is a trend analysis. Now, what you do with that information is up to you. If you see that the trend is the value of the dollar is approaching zero, then your investment engine is to short the dollar on currencies that are strong against the dollar. But since we're a global market and changing economies, then you would have to keep an eye on all those countries and make moves in and out of each currency when markets are affected.

Thanks Frixxxx, that's what I was looking for. I'm not trying to drift off-topic, in my mind the continuing irresolution of the national budget is intimately connected to the value of the dollar and one may inform profitable trades on the other.

It's hard to separate the two, and the details you describe that one would have to understand and act on are beyond my capabilities. Is there like a 'financial markets go blammo' bet I can put all my money on and just let it ride? What would the house book charge to carry the wager, or, I wonder what the odds are on that?

[Frixxxx]

Thanks Frixxxx, that's what I was looking for. I'm not trying to drift off-topic, in my mind the continuing irresolution of the national budget is intimately connected to the value of the dollar and one may inform profitable trades on the other.

It's hard to separate the two, and the details you describe that one would have to understand and act on are beyond my capabilities. Is there like a 'financial markets go blammo' bet I can put all my money on and just let it ride? What would the house book charge to carry the wager, or, I wonder what the odds are on that?The only constant I can say the markets have is their inherent inconsistency. Sorry, but all bets are off on a static movement.