Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Originally Posted by TommyIV

Maybe we (as a society) should think about going back to the gold standard. It seems people in power (on both sides) with desire to get re-elected can't be trusted with such monetary policy power.

Or would we run the risk of deflation?

Critics of fiat currency point to the gold standard as an ideal blueprint, but without researching too deep I never hear about the negative consequences of the gold standard and why it was abandoned completely.

The recessions back in the days before the FED were horrific.

Math will fix the issues with our (remember, we vote for those 'people in power') politicians. We have been eating into the design margin for quite some time. Math is the great equalizer. It is very fair and equitable. At some point even the voters apply math and common sense. In this, the British might be the leading edge. They know the piper is coming. Their 'people in power' tried to give them a tax cut - the normal trope of 'conservative' 'people of power'. The market dumped and the tax cut was rescinded. Likewise, if some politician started promising student loan bailouts in England right now he/she would likely be dumped into the Thames. Math.

I kinda like the way the market behaved today. A few more days like this (a buy in and a nice and even hold - as of 1530) and I will move more to equities.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Timing of going into stocks late last week seems to be near perfect...if I get out today, I'll lock in about 1.5% profit for October, so that's what I'll do.

Nice entry/exit scalp, I'd take that setup All DAY LONG....

Normally I would have stayed in stocks 1 more day, to get that open gap filled.
However with these huge 2-3% daily moves we've been having, my big worry was we would fill it intra-day, then fall sharply.
Day is still early and we could reverse this trend, but feeling better about exiting yesterday and locking in 1.6% for October.

Its tricky out there with big waves...good luck and be careful out there.

SP.jpg

Have been hibernating in the -G- since mid October, locking in a few percent in OCT but missing much of the continued rally.
I've learned "Not to Chase" the market, and was patiently waiting for a good entry point.
In Tom's discussions he occasioanlly mentioned the big Open Gap in mid November..and have been eying it ever since.

Well, our descent the last few days, along with this mornings big drop, have us just about there, almost filling that gap.
With the seasonality favoring low volume "Holiday Rallies" and reaching that big technical gap barrier...and it being a Friday, with momentum swings typical on Mondays, I've decided to catch the "falling knife". Hopefully my hands won't get too bloody.

Leaving 100% G position COB today (Fri) and going 100% C...with my 1st Dec IFT.

gap.jpg

Nice work!

I’m living vicariously through you.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

Best of luck.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Have been hibernating in the -G- since mid October, locking in a few percent in OCT but missing much of the continued rally.
I've learned "Not to Chase" the market, and was patiently waiting for a good entry point.
In Tom's discussions he occasioanlly mentioned the big Open Gap in mid November..and have been eying it ever since.

Well, our descent the last few days, along with this mornings big drop, have us just about there, almost filling that gap.
With the seasonality favoring low volume "Holiday Rallies" and reaching that big technical gap barrier...and it being a Friday, with momentum swings typical on Mondays, I've decided to catch the "falling knife". Hopefully my hands won't get too bloody.

Leaving 100% G position COB today (Fri) and going 100% C...with my 1st Dec IFT.

gap.jpg

Hmmmm???
Maybe the Market lost patience late in the trading day as well, and said "Filling 90% of the gap is close enough"??

gap.jpg

Well, caught the falling knife a bit early...but we did "officially" fill that huge open gap in the last few minutes.
Now will sit back and watch if we can launch a major recovery in the last hour before the close.

gap.jpg

My move into stocks Dec 16th in order to catch a "Santa Claus Rally" seems to have been a bust.
The one thing nagging in my made when I made that IFT was the long term chart (below) showing a continued Downward long term trend.
The other issue I was worried about, was the possibility of another Head & Shoulders pattern setting, up, and that indeed seems to be happening now, ironically with todays big up day.
If todays close finishes were it is at todays IFT deadline, It will still make my IFT a small positive gain, and put me up about 0.30% for Dec.
So with most of the Holiday Santa Rally season over, mostly MIA, and the charts showing another H&S pattern, and potential for another "New Low" in the coming days/weeks, I will be exiting my 100% C position and going 100% G COB today.

SP.jpg

Thanks, FWM. I think that clinches it for me, going to hit the exit today. This flat movement of late looks like a bear flag without the uptrend, vice consolidation.