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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5197

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stocks are down to start the new week, but quickly came off the opening lows. The yield on the 10-year T-note is making a new high - hitting levels not seen since 2011. The dollar is up, adding to the pressure on stocks.




    High Yield Corp. Bonds are down after a big reversal rally on Friday.

    Gold and silver are down, as is oil and bitcoin.

    Homebuilder sentiment fell for the ninth straight month.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #5198

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The Transports are bouncing today's after Friday's major sell off. There's an open gap up to about 13450, and if that is filled it would fill out the rights shoulder of the large head and shoulders pattern. If 12750 fails, the H&S pattern suggests another 1000 point drop below the H&S.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #5199

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are popping higher again today and that continues to add pressure to the stock market.

    Like a holiday or major economic data release, it's tough to trust the action right before an FOMC rate decision because it could be a fake out to get us leaning the wrong way, but this chart does not look like it is fooling around with a double top right now.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  6.  
  7. #5200

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The S&P 500 seems to be coiling up for something - whether another push lower to fill the open gap near 3800, and potentially the June lows, or maybe a rally up where there are other open gaps and perhaps the indices are a little oversold. That orange rectangle, which was an old gap, seems to be a sticky area.




    The yield on the 10-year Treasury is down, but so far it is just cleaning up yesterday's open gap. The dollar is up making another new high.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #5201

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk


    Enjoying the post-Fed ride?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  10.  
  11. #5202

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Boom! Gap filled.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  13. #5203

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to a new high after a jobless claim report that was stronger than expected, suggesting the jobs market is not calming down as the Fed had been hoping.

    That report also turned the S&P 500 futures around from a modest gain to losses, and now we see the indices in the red to start the day.

    Good news is bad news right now for the stock market as it wants to see an economic slow down to get the Fed to back off interest rates.

    Oil is up $1 a barrel, gold and silver are also moving higher as the dollar moves down slightly with other foreign central banks following the Fed and raising interest rates last night.


    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #5204

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Just a reminder that I am on vacation this week. I will check in every day but the commentaries will be brief because of some personal plans, and working on my laptop to me is like running in peanut butter compared to my PC. If something major happens I'll try to address that the best I can. My schedule will be completely off being in a different time zone so I'll apologize in advance, and appreciate your patience if I respond late to emails, or post reports and update the AutoTracker later than usual. Premium alerts will go out as needed.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  16.  
  17. #5205

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Enjoy your time away!

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  19. #5206

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Nice rally to start the day, and it was over due and right on time on Turnaround Tuesday. But I see yields are up again, so the rally may have a difficult time holding very long.


    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Just a reminder that I am on vacation this week. I will check in every day but the commentaries will be brief because of some personal plans, and working on my laptop to me is like running in peanut butter compared to my PC. If something major happens I'll try to address that the best I can. My schedule will be completely off being in a different time zone so I'll apologize in advance, and appreciate your patience if I respond late to emails, or post reports and update the AutoTracker later than usual. Premium alerts will go out as needed.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  20.  
  21. #5207

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are finally falling today so the stock market has a reason to rebound. This is almost certainly a dead cat bounce but it could last a few days, especially when new money starts coming in when the new month starts on Monday. Still, risk is high as investors will hold on only long enough not to be the last one out when the bounce is over and they start selling the rally again.


    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Just a reminder that I am on vacation this week. I will check in every day but the commentaries will be brief because of some personal plans, and working on my laptop to me is like running in peanut butter compared to my PC. If something major happens I'll try to address that the best I can. My schedule will be completely off being in a different time zone so I'll apologize in advance, and appreciate your patience if I respond late to emails, or post reports and update the AutoTracker later than usual. Premium alerts will go out as needed.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  22.  
  23. #5208

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The S&P 500 is dancing around the June lows with lot of oversold room above, but a precipitous drop below if those lows give out.

    The rally yesterday did satisfy an open gap on the DWCPF S-fund chart before flipping back over, and both are desperately trying to hold tat those recent lows as well.






    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Just a reminder that I am on vacation this week. I will check in every day but the commentaries will be brief because of some personal plans, and working on my laptop to me is like running in peanut butter compared to my PC. If something major happens I'll try to address that the best I can. My schedule will be completely off being in a different time zone so I'll apologize in advance, and appreciate your patience if I respond late to emails, or post reports and update the AutoTracker later than usual. Premium alerts will go out as needed.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  24.  
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