Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Recession reflections
GS economists currently assign a roughly 20%-35% probability of a US recession in the coming year. Goldman: "Under such a scenario, we would invariably have to cut our EPS estimate even further. From a historical perspective, during a recession S&P 500 EPS typically falls by 13% from peak-to-trough before rebounding by 17% during the subsequent four quarters" (Goldman)
https://themarketear.com/

VXX daily: What did I miss? What is causing this spike up this morning. This doesn't seem right.

Possibly: Barclays Suspends ‘OIL,’ ‘VXX’ Creations

Originally Posted by TommyIV

Possibly: Barclays Suspends ‘OIL,’ ‘VXX’ Creations

Thanks!

The market is expecting a 25-basis-point increase tomorrow.

How about one of those violent bear market squeezes?

Macro trading has been very interesting over past months. This market has a lot to digest going forward; the first Fed rate hike, QE going QT, peak inflation and much more. As we have seen over the past few trading sessions we are prone to strong contra-trend reversals (commodities). Are we setting up for something similar in equities? Let's see how the stressed market will take FOMC tomorrow.

VIX - how is under the hood stress doing?

VIX remains elevated as we approach FOMC. We are down from recent "panic" highs...

https://themarketear.com/

KWEB daily: Trying to bottom.....



https://kraneshares.com/kweb-aims-to...oming-months/#


Charlie Munger has recognized value since before World War II.


As the above article mentions, Charlie Munger--who only has about 98 years of life experience--is a big fan of Chinese internet companies. Like Seth Klarman and Benjamin Graham, he is focused on fundamentals rather than hype. Whenever the most-experienced investors are aggressively buying while the least-knowledgeable traders are bailing out from disappointment it is time to step up to the plate.

Kaplan

I bought some shares in early trading using a limit order. I was surprised it filled. Beer Money trade....

03/15/2022 07:50:19 Bought 100 KWEB @ 20.25

KWEB daily:A huge gap up...... Will it fill in the near future or just keep moving higher?

SPY daily: A new buy signal, but will it hold. Holding above the 3 ema, and the 20 ema. The 50 day sma be up. The SPY tracked 23 days (trending lower) below the 20 ema.... Not what we want to see!

ST- The trend is now up. We shall see how it plays out. Whipsaws have been the norm lately.

SPY/VXF daily: A nice close after Fed Speak

Fed this and that, but KWEB steals the show
From extremely oversold to basically overbought in a day. Volumes are beyond huge. It doesn't get more extreme than this...at least not in index land.
https://themarketear.com/

The 5 year now above the 10 year yield...