Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Monday down 2.9%, the biggest down day since October 2020.

Today up 2.6%, the biggest up day since June 2020.

Bear market behavior.

I agree Brother! We are in a Bear Market based on the historical data I have looked over. There is some very good trading op's during Bear Markets. This market is going to be more like 1929 to 1933 in my opinion. (Chart Below) Note the rips and dips. I think we are in the early stages of this Bear. A move down to the 200 month MA or lower has above average odds based on the historical data. See the last two charts.... The Fed has been blowing up this bubble since 2008........ We traded that Bear, and I also traded the 1987 and 2000 Smack Downs. These new traders on their phones will get hurt badly if they BTD to soon.

Stock Market Historical Crash Search: History could repeat! The point is one should stay nimble in a market like this one..... We remain in a HUGE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE and the SPX/SPY remain very stretched above the mean. The mean is the 200 month ma. See chart posted above.

https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...ket+crash+2008

The Good News is we now have circuit breakers in place after the 2010 Flash Crash.

Stock Market Crash - Flash Crash May 6, 2010

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I&t=34s

Great analysis you're putting out. It really helps. Thank You!

The VIX daily buy signal:

Let’s Pass on This Buy Signal for Now
Jeff Clark | Mar 10, 2022 | Market Minute | 3 min read

The Volatility Index (VIX) generated a new buy signal after the market closed on Tuesday.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...ignal-for-now/
But, much like the buy signal back in November, this is a low-confidence buy signal. So, I’m not buying it just yet.

TLT/EDV daily: Looking to take a position. Testing the 134.33 low marker, and a lower BB tag.

Why it matters whether stocks gap up or down at the open
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-03-10 at 0700 CST
Why the open matters for intraday returns

It's long been known that U.S. stocks have performed better overnight than during regular trading hours. Theories abound, but in truth nobody really knows why.

Jay took an in-depth look at this phenomenon in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) since its inception. But helpfully, he broke it down by day, and whether each day's open was higher or lower than the previous day's close.

For example, the chart below shows the growth of $1 in SPY held intraday only on Thursdays if SPY opened higher versus the growth of $1 in SPY held intraday if SPY opened lower or unchanged.

We can clearly see that if stocks opened higher on Thursday, then they tended to do significantly better during regular trading hours as well. A hyper-active trader using this strategy (not including commissions or slippage) would have returned -17.8% if buying SPY after a down open on Thursday. Other days show even more stark differences in performance.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...26a-1271291994

TLT daily: Under cut of the low and a lower BB tag.

Long TLT again for a trade. I also took a trade of UWM based on Sentiment Trader's data I posted above. ( Small Trade) We shall see how both play out.

Why TLT: Because some Big Money funds use it as a flight to safety. For now I like the odds of it being a winner, but as we all know one can never know for sure. My last TLT trade did well.

TLT/EDV/VFX/UWM daily chart and current positions: Around 2 hours to go until the close....

Long and ST trading: UWM/VXF/UWM/EDV

Smart Money still buying and holding positions:

TLT has become an unusually good bargain just as it had been exactly one year ago.


On March 18, 2021, TLT traded as low as 132.72 in the pre-market session which it had not previously touched since July 2019. Today we dropped to within 1% of that nadir.


Investors keep worrying that unpopular, undervalued assets like U.S. Treasuries or the Japanese yen or low-P/E shares will be adversely affected by rising inflation, a stronger U.S. dollar, geopolitical turmoil, and other factors. Historically the assets which are the most adversely impacted by a bear market are high-P/E U.S. growth stocks. Paradoxically, this is what investors are most eagerly buying directly and via funds of these holdings.

Kaplan

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot....g-is-that.html