Thread: Oil Slick Stuff

Oil traders eye $200 per barrel this month: report

Traders are looking to cash in on the potential oil scarcity from the Russia-Ukraine war


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...-barrel-report

Originally Posted by nnuut

Oil traders eye $200 per barrel this month: report

Traders are looking to cash in on the potential oil scarcity from the Russia-Ukraine war

Well, what will the price of a gallon of gas be if the barrel is at $200? Im thinking about $8 a gallon ought to be where it goes.


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Who is the BLAME?fist-shake.gif

Article is from January 2020, but still relevant today.

Spiking oil prices have led to recessions in the past, and that’s why the stock market is on edge. Historically, U.S. recessions have been preceded by sharp spikes in oil prices.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/spik...s-on-edge.html

Originally Posted by nnuut

Who is the BLAME?

Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions. Russia is still exporting their oil and it's still being bought - as long as there is a buyer. Who's buying, we may never know.

Kill off "all Russian oil", it only goes higher, and some nations will continue to buy it. Last week Shell bought some at a discount and that still turned out to be a very smart move. I'd bet many are doing the same but are not willing to announce it for fear of a blowback.

Listening to an economist from a DC think tank yesterday whose opinion is that the only way to damage the russian economy is to increase the world wide supply which will drive oil prices down. He believes a ban on russian oil will only drive their revenue up. A limited supply only pushes prices up. They will always be able to find a buyer at the right price. Seems to make sense to me based on my limited economic knowledge. Any opinions out there in TSP'r land ?

Of course they'll find buyers especially if offered at a slight discount. They're still making a lot with $100 barrel. Petrodollars will have a hard time after this. Russia, China already planned to leave the USD for their own oil trading currencies before the invasion. Eventually, buyers will be forced to come back.

Who blinks first? Europe for sure can't hold out much longer. I did the math yesterday and it came out to around $7.50 a gallon in London. They're in a recession or will be starting one soon.

All in all, just plain bad policy decisions exacerbated by forced shutdowns. Higher wages for all, clean energy, no more drilling, the only ones who made money on this were the solar companies getting freshly printed free money. Everyone knew renewable energy could never sustain human life as we know it but everyone went along and played that game political reasons.

When oil prices rose in 2008 it was largely due to speculation that China would use all the world's oil to expand. Loaded tankers idled off coasts waiting to get to refineries. It was never a case of there not being enough supply.

So if we're going to "cancel all Russian oil" and start purchasing from Iran and Venezuela, then how is anybody going to tell the difference between where it came from? I understand most Russian oil is refined in some intermediate way and isn't pure crude, but still, what's stopping some country from buying from Russia, then selling to the US/Canada/Europe? It may be no different from a market maker that acts as an intermediary between buyers and sellers.

Good news: Looks like we are talking quietly with both Venezuela and Iran about possibly resetting relationships and resuming oil arrangements. Could be a positive sign


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Originally Posted by James48843

Good news: Looks like we are talking quietly with both Venezuela and Iran about possibly resetting relationships and resuming oil arrangements. Could be a positive sign


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I don't think Venezuela and Iran are our friends.

Just across the bridge from El Paso Texas in Mexico it's $3.00 a gallon. $4.19 here.