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Thread: Inflation

  1. #1

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  3. #2

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    Inflation notches a fresh 30-year high as measured by the Fed’s favorite gauge

    KEY POINTS

    Headline inflation, including food and energy, rose at a 4.4% annual rate in September, the fastest since 1991.

    Core inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge, increased 3.6% for the 12 months, the same as in August but still also the fastest pace in 30 years.

    Personal income declined at a faster pace than expected while consumer spending increased and was in line with forecasts.

    Employment costs rose more than expected and at the fastest annual pace in 19 years.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/29/infl...ite-gauge.html
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #3

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    These year over year comparisons are tough. I think markets are looking past all of it as companies are reporting that the huge blast of demand was a COVID shutdown anomaly.

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  7. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    I think markets are looking past all of it
    That certainly seems to be the case.
    Tom
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  9. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    These year over year comparisons are tough. I think markets are looking past all of it as companies are reporting that the huge blast of demand was a COVID shutdown anomaly.
    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    That certainly seems to be the case.
    What does it mean when 'markets are looking past all of it'? (in terms of fundamentals)...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  11. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    What does it mean when 'markets are looking past all of it'? (in terms of fundamentals)...
    It's all short term and doesn't matter. Markets believe the supply chain problems will work themselves out after Christmas. See notes from the AAPL and AMZN calls in their threads.

    I read that in the past any time since 1985 when we got inflation over +5% YoY, it didn't last. Sure 1973 to 1982 was a problem but markets don't see it as being the same environment. Taking off the gold standard was a big driver of that inflation.

    M2 velocity is down to lows never seen before. That means there might be money out there, but it's not being passed around - circulating.

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  13. #7

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    Jerome Powell’s Dashboard Casts Doubt on Inflation Easing Quickly

    Fed chairman laid out five reasons this summer why higher prices should reverse, but some recent data have gone the wrong way

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell used the bulk of a widely anticipated speech in late August to explain why he was still confident that this year’s inflation surge would prove temporary. His remarks haven’t aged well.

    Economic data released over the past two months have cast doubt on parts of Mr. Powell’s thesis, which helps to explain why he has acknowledged less conviction that inflation will quickly return to the Fed’s 2% goal as supply-chain kinks work themselves out.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-...hare_permalink
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #8

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    Top Fed Official Says Continued High Inflation Would Be Problematic for Central Bank

    Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expects price pressures to dissipate, but a ‘repeat performance’ in 2022 of recent inflation ‘would not be a policy success’


    A top Federal Reserve official said he expects this year’s surge in inflation to ease as supply and demand imbalances fade over time and that an extended run of higher prices through next year would be a problem for the central bank.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-fed...hare_permalink
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #9

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    Evans. I'm with him on this call but deflation is inevitable.

    To Evans, though, it will likely take another two years before inflation is strong enough to merit a rate hike.

    The supply side issues that have caused a spike in inflation will dissipate over the next year, and even unemployment falling to 3.5% will likely not be enough to keep inflation much higher than the Fed's 2% goal.

    Evans urged fellow policymakers to be more aggressive on its inflation target.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/fin...ld-2021-09-27/


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  19. #10

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    Kinda a neat website. It charts the price of gas by city (and nation wide) over a timeframe...

    https://inflationdata.com/articles/h...parison-chart/

    Rings true to my memory and my Googlin'

    Regular Gas on 2019/11/09 in Raleigh, NC: ~$2.40
    Regular Gas on 2021/11/09 in Raleigh, NC: ~$3.25

    Hmm, just hmm.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  21. #11

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    Big business bosses are warning that supply chain issues and inflation are here to stay

    Companies around the world are battling supply chain bottlenecks as a post-pandemic spike in demand converges with industrial production struggling to catch up after lengthy Covid-induced shutdowns.

    Policymakers across major central banks have largely held the line that the period of high inflation in their respective economies, and the global supply problems feeding into it, are “transitory.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/big-...e-to-stay.html
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #12

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    It's simple - adapt and provide a resolution or go the way of GE.

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