Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

IWM daily: The current price is below the Jan high marker..... Is that a tell?

Bottom Line: IWM remains in a trading range, and that is NOT what you want to see this late in the yearly cycle.

IWM monthly: Well, a bounce after tagging the 10 mma, but still moving sideways

"P.S. Why is this forum called Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed). An awkward name. Chart Cave? Day Trading Den? Technical Tea?"

LOL.... That was my choice of a name when I started this Cave back in 2005. We didn't get the big correction until 2007, but the indicators were there it was coming, and I was getting Bearish. So I opened up this thread and called it the Bear Cave..... LOL..... However, bull was allowed since I trade both ways.

Bottom Line: I picked the name in 2005 Brother.

As for the miners, I too would love to see "A panic break lower" but I will keep adding shares for now. I have a ways to go to complete my 10% position. Since I just started buying I would also welcome a mover lower.

Bottom Line: The miners remain in a downtrend and I have "NO BUY" signal yet.

GDX remains below the 10, 20, 50, and 100 dma, and is in a downtrend...... I be waiting for the turn too.....

Is it time to start buying the miners? Kaplan thinks it is..... GDXJ went lower then $41.17 today


Monday, August 16, 2021
“It’s not always easy to do what’s not popular, but that’s where you make your money.” --John Neff

GDXJ slid to 41.17, its lowest dividend-adjusted point since May 14, 2020.


This was the lowest level for GDXJ in over 15 months. Additional downside is possible and perhaps even likely but by early 2023 or sooner a rebound could result in GDXJ being substantially higher than it is now. Doubling is possible and even tripling can't be ruled out. I am therefore sticking stubbornly with my ladder of good-until-canceled purchase orders and thereby buying more into weakness. The total decline since its 7-1/2-year peak of August 5, 2020 through today's intraday low for GDXJ, including all reinvested dividends, surpassed 36.5%.


GDX has dropped just under 30% over a nearly identical time period dating back to its August 5, 2020 high.

Kaplan

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/


GDXJ daily chart:

Video on the oil sector from an Ultra-Bear. He was calling for a break of the support line and commodity bust last winter but changed his Elliott wave count and moved the bust to this winter.

xop.jpg

https://www.thezebergreport.com/11_Oil_Companies_Video

Looks like a couple posters here. How many lurkers?

Many folks here have their own account talks, and just post their thoughts for other members to look over. My thread doesn’t get many looks, but I don’t have to put up with all the political crap like I had to from other sites I used to post at. It is NOT allowed here at TSPtalk. I just post my market thoughts, and sometimes someone stops by and leaves a comment. This is a place I can go back over my charts and market thoughts without being attacked because someone didn’t agree with me. After all, most are just opinions. I'm a firm believer in a journal for my thoughts, and this is the place I’m currently using when it comes to the stock market. I do post things I don’t agree, they too are just opinions most of the time. I try and post data that is facts when I can.

Anyway, I can look back over my comments, charts and
say... What the heck was I thinking! Tom also does a nice daily report, and other members also post some excellent market thoughts and links.

Take care.

Also, I hate posting using this IPad!

You are doing great. Even though I may not hit the “like” button, I am looking. I can sift through the information that first interest me well, but I usually pick up a nugget here and there, so it’s all good.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

Perhaps two different styles can pick better entries. Daily/Weekly. Gold holding up. GDX following the stocks down. Spy turned at the 50 last time. Will start paying attention when SPY nears the 50. Oddly, enough everyone had a week to get into GDX after SPY turned last month. Nice to see more trading info and less fluff.

gdx.jpg

I added shares of the miners today Brother. If the miners move lower I will just add.... I got smacked hard doing this with MTDR, but in the end I made money. I think this will be a better then average MT trade. I added another 500 shares of EQX today. Close to my fill of this gold stock, and will look at other stocks. Overall position getting close to 2% position and most of it is EQX... The max will be 10% and I reduce and take gains once we get deeper into the weekly cycle and the upper BB. That is once the new weekly cyele low is confirmed, and we are trending up on the weekly chart. It remains in a downtrend right now. A (-56%) move down since the $13.66 marker high. A move back to $10.00ish would make me happy, but do we move down to $4.00ish first is the big question. I will be adding GDXJ going forward, and ST trading JNUG and NUGT when I like the setups after the cycle low is confirmed. We shall see what happens next....

The following order executed on 08/18/2021 at 10:30 AM, Eastern time:

Account:
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Market
Security: EQUINOX GOLD CORP NO PAR (EQX)
Quantity: 500 share(s)
Price:* $6.01

Red,

Here is the MTDR data I was talking about. I got caught in that huge gap down from about $8.00ish and it went down to $1.11. I added shares and did ok in the end, but one just never knows how any stock will play out in the end. Avoid all those that think they know for sure. Of course I sold way to early on the way back up..... That sucked too!

The Big gap down was on a Sunday night when I couldn't do a darn thing but watch.

Trade the trend, but is this getting a bit bubbly?
You definitely don't use the Buffett indicator (US stock market cap/US GDP) for the short term book, but the indicator continues to trade at elevated levels.

On the other hand, Fed is still pumping...
https://themarketear.com/

Stephen Van Metre on how the Fed is using reverse repo to flatten the yield curve and doesn’t want to taper until after the next election (extra scrutiny from Congress if they crash the market).