Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

VTI The Total Stock Market...... For now a lower high, but with the Fed pumping 130 billion a month into the market..... who can say what will happen next. Close to tagging the upper BB, 2 black candles, and the RSI be looking weak (RSI 5)..... A time to reduce a tad in my opinion. I like to buy the lower BB tags, and reduce as we get close to the UPPER BB tags or lower.

Bottom line the trend remains up!

Stocks are on day 12 for the daily cycle and RSI 05 still has not embedded in overbought.
During the advancing phase of the intermediate cycle, RSI 05 tends to get embedded in overbought as evidenced in early April. But notice as stocks broke out to a new high in late April and early May those breakouts were followed by 2 quick bearish reversals in RSI. That could be an early warning that an emerging bearish RSI pattern is beginning to emerge.

Now that stocks are rallying out of their DCL we need to keep a watch on RSI. If it begins to embed once again in overbought, that would indicate a resumption of the intermediate cycle advance. However, a quick bearish reversal would indicate an end to the intermediate cycle advance and the beginning of an intermediate cycle decline. We will use a close below the 4200 breakout level as a warning and a close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline.


https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

$VIX - I will be watching the VIX a tad closer the next few weeks.

$VIX fills today's down gap on close following filling the remaining down gap from April & the breaking out of this rather tight compression channel.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...69472218546185

$VIX/VXX: Daily

$VIX daily: a closer look.... A higher low? We shall see next week.......

mostly bad news on the re-open front in Asia this week
Reasons enough to get worried?

1) Malaysia reported record-high daily infection cases and deaths, while the country’s vaccination pace has failed to pick up, with Malaysia government advising the broader public to prepare for the worst

2) Australia’s Melbourne and Victoria State have entered a seven-day lockdown in a bid to curb the state's growing COVID-19 infections; Singapore announced a ban on flights from Australia’s Victoria State

3) Taiwan continues to report a rise in daily infections and deaths despite the Level 3 restrictions

4) Thailand has tightened border controls amid discovery of COVID-19 variants

5) Japan is mulling extending the state of emergency that includes Tokyo and other major cities to a new prospective date of Jun 20 amid surging infection cases, with lingering uncertainty over the upcoming Summer Olympics

6) China reported this week a few local cases linked to variants in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Given the fact SPX is once again in the upper part of the range, and VIX trading at these levels; VIX longs are starting to look like cheap hedges, and protection you buy when you can, not when you must...

https://themarketear.com/

robo,

would you have a recommendation on where I could educate myself about learning how to read/trade the cycle?

thank you,
Max

Originally Posted by mmk119

robo,

would you have a recommendation on where I could educate myself about learning how to read/trade the cycle?

thank you,
Max

I would recommend likesmoney if you are just learning. He sometimes runs a 6 week deal for $15.00. Once you get access to his web site just read over things. It will give you a very good idea how cycles can be used as "PART" of your trading. I don't trade based on only cycles, but find it useful for Risk Management.

You can signup for his free reports after that or just try out his service for 6 months as you are learning. I'm not a sub with him because I trend trade, but I "DO" use cycle data as part of my trading. He just points out the cycles and doesn't make calls for the indexes I trade. My current main stock index is VTI at Vanguard, but I sometimes use other indexes.

If you learn the basics you will be fine - Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime

Learning how to use cycles for trading, is a good tool to have in your trading tool box!

Take Care....

Likesmoney: Link https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

The 5/29/21 Weekend Report
Posted on May 29, 2021

The dollar formed a swing low on Wednesday.

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA and the declining trend line on Friday so will will label day 18 as the DCL. The dollar should go on to turn the 10 day MA high as it rallies out of its DCL. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

$USD daily: My USD tracking data, and I do track cycles.

I really enjoy your thread Robo! A wealth of information and great insight. Thank You!