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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8089

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears broke through support today and price closed well under the 50 dma on both charts.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can also see that price closed off the lows of the day. That may not mean much in the context of a bearish NAAIM reading. Momentum accelerated to the downside. Volume was up. I was asked if a switch has been flipped. I was not ready to embrace that notion the way I did over a year ago, but yields are now rising and so is inflation. Those can be switches all by themselves.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth fell again and is in a slow downtrend. It hasn't gotten serious, but if the sellers jam the exits it could fall much quicker.

    NAAIM came in bearish today; at least in the short term (a week). They are shorting more than they were so I don't think the downside is over.

    I am now bearish along with the smart money. The bulls may mount another run to the upside, but momentum now favors the bears. I suspect the bottom is not in and could be several percentage points further down.

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  3. #8090

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday's market action saw a big intraday reversal that saw price erase all or most of Thursday's losses. The week ended mixed with the S&P posting a decent gain of 0.85%, but the DWCPF falling for a loss of 2.12%.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    The reversal on Friday shows long tails on the both charts, which may mark a low. Price on the S&P closed back over its 50 dma, while the DWCPF fell a bit short and remains under that key average. Volume was elevated, which may be a tell. Momentum stalled and may be ready to reverse. It's too soon to say in this market, however. It is becoming more deceptive of its intention.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth got back over its 21 day EMA, but I'm calling it neutral rather than bullish.

    The latest TSP Talk sentiment survey came in neutral for the 2nd week in a row. That isn't far from the NAAIM reading on Thursday, which I called bearish, but not overly so. Getting overly bearish has for years been a prescription for pain in a market bent on rising the majority of the time.

    So, the Friday reversal looks promising for the bulls. I was bearish heading into Friday and the reversal has me wondering if the worst is over. I am certainly not ready to get bullish in this market, so I am moving back to a neutral stance until we see whether Friday's action put in a bottom or not.

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  5. #8091

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It looked like the bulls were going to have a good day today as the morning session saw nice gains in volatile action. But as noon approached the gains appeared limited. The DWCPF peaked early, while the S&P had more than one peak. Both indexes succumbed to selling pressure in the afternoon session.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price closed for a loss on both charts. Interestingly, price closed pretty much on support at the 50 dma. The DWCPF managed to rise above its 50 dma early in the trading session, but was rejected and closed back under that key average, which now appears to be resistance for that index. Volume was elevated. Momentum fell.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth actually remained elevated, but still in a sideways pattern.

    So, it's still a mystery of sorts where this market is headed. The DWCPF is struggling more than the S&P, but not by a lot. Volatility remains elevated along with volume. It's still a neutral picture, which also reflects my sentiment.


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  7. #8092

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls managed to reverse yesterday's loss, but they didn't make any statements.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the DWCPF managed to close above its 50 dma, but not by a lot. It's a bit misleading to look at that chart and then realize that the DWCPF tacked on gains of about 2.5%. That certainly shows us how far from the top it remains. Price on the S&P bounced off its 50 dma (after closing right on it yesterday). The market did fade at the end of the day, but it was more pronounced on the DOW than either the DWCPF or the S&P. Volume has been steadily falling the past few trading days, but still remains a bit above average (imo). Momentum is trying to turn again.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth, while certainly not off to the races, has been eking out gains, but has yet to break out of its range.

    So, the market remains in no-mans land for the moment. The bulls appear to have the advantage (long term trend and price above the 50 dma), but that could change quickly. Volatility is settling out too and that may help the bullish case.

    I still can't get bullish, however. I remain neutral.

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  9. #8093

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH, Another great report. Thanks
    May the force be with us.

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  11. #8094

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market gapped higher at the open today and bulls fought to maintain the gains in a choppy trading session.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Overhead resistance remains an obstacle on both charts, but there are some promising signs for the bulls. Momentum has turned up after a lengthy decline. Volume has been slowly diminishing, which also speaks to the lessening of volatility. Price still has to cut through resistance and post fresh gains, but at least there are signs that the market is moving in that direction.

    NYAD.png

    I find it very noteworthy that cumulative breadth hit a fresh all-time high today. Is this a early warning to the bears? We'll see.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if they remain cautious. I remain neutral, but I may not be far off from going bullish. NAAIM may (or may not) convince me when we get the latest reading.

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  13. #8095

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Choppy is how I would have described today’s action too, but I’d rather see that instead of a late afternoon sell-off.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  15. #8096

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Well, NAAIM is now below 50. Sounds to me like they are getting more bearish. Am I reading that right?
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
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  17. #8097

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Well, NAAIM is now below 50. Sounds to me like they are getting more bearish. Am I reading that right?
    They are on the bearish side now for sure. It looks like a warning to me. They aren't believing this rally.

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  19. #8098

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    TSP Talk Sentiment is really bulled up it looks like. 76% bullish so far!

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  21. #8099

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Happy_Trails View Post
    TSP Talk Sentiment is really bulled up it looks like. 76% bullish so far!
    And I don't consider us dumb money either. This should be interesting what happens over the next week.

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  23. #8100

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that there were promising signs that the market was beginning to gather some bullish momentum (in so many words). I cautioned that resistance was still overhead, but there were indicators that were becoming more favorable to the bulls.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price rose on both charts today. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high, but also closed well off its high of the day. Price on the DWCPF also had a good, but is still well off its all-time high. Momentum continues to rise on both charts. Volume is about normal now.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is looking flat-out bullish once again. It's rising quickly.

    All of this is looking pretty good for the bulls, but the smart money (NAAIM) got more defensive and is now leaning bearish. The preliminary TSP Talk Sentiment survey was very bulled, but the official reading has not been released as yet. Both readings are obviously at odds. Recently, I sided with NAAIM when both surveys were opposite another and TSP won.

    I have to say that while I normally do not bet against NAAIM, I also know that they don't always get it right (just most of the time). Now, keep in mind that the TSP survey may come in over-the-top bullish and that may be a problem.

    So, it's decision time. There are reasons to buy this market right now, but I'd not be complacent about it.

    I am going from neutral to modestly bullish.


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