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Thread: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

  1. #97

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Updated (As of 4pm EST March 6th) death rates by country using the # deaths / # cases method. Sourced data from worldometers.
    Closed cases = deaths + recoveries. Keep in mind, recoveries have not been well reported in most countries.
    DISCLAMER: lack of testing typically makes these death rates higher, because you aren't catching the mild cases. US also got hit in the worst possible place: nursing home. Their rate *should* fall as more people are tested


    OVERALL is 3.4% (3462 deaths / 101878 cases). With 5.8% of closed cases ending in death
    USA is 5.2% (14 deaths / 270 cases). With 48.3% of closed cases ending in death
    China is 3.8% (3042 deaths / 80576 cases). With 5.3% of closed cases ending in death
    S. Korea is 0.7% (43 deaths / 6593 cases). With 24.2% of closed cases ending in death
    Iran is 2.6% (124 deaths / 4747 cases). With 12% of closed cases ending in death
    Italy is 4.2% (197 deaths / 4636 cases). With 27.4% of closed cases ending in death

    If the China numbers are true, this whole thing could be a non-factor in 2-4 months.
    If the South Korea numbers are true, there are significantly more (~5x) people infected than have been found, but the death rate is significantly less (~0.7% instead of 3.4%). South Korea is testing A LOT of people, so they are either finding all the mind cases that no one else is even testing, or they have a lot of false positives... or they have a less deadly strain
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  3. #98

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at HHS: "The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%"

    WATCH: "The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewher…
    See More: https://www.facebook.com/NBCNews/vid...0931993355689/
    Tom
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    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #99

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    This seems like good-ish news!


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  7. #100

    Default Re: COVID-19, (was Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)"

    0.1 to 1% would make sense. Like I mentioned..
    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    If the South Korea numbers are true, there are significantly more (~5x) people infected than have been found, but the death rate is significantly less (~0.7% instead of 3.4%). South Korea is testing A LOT of people, so they are either finding all the mind cases that no one else is even testing, or they have a lot of false positives... or they have a less deadly strain
    But in order for that 0.1 to 1% to be true, what he said was wrong. He said for every case there is likely 2 or 3 cases going undetected due to mild symptoms. Math doesn't support that.

    USA is currently at a 4.3% case fatality rate. With 19 deaths, that would mean you would have to have 1900 cases to get 1% or 19000 cases to get 0.1%.... we currently have 438 cases. so that would mean for every case, there is 4 to 44 undetected mild cases.

    Also doesn't account for the deaths that are going undetected do to lack of testing.

    He also said the only people who are really sick and go to the hospital are getting testing... that isn't accurate in the US. Testing isn't (wasnt?) wide spread.

    If I had to guess, South Korea values are accurate. actual death rate is around 0.5 to 1%, and will go down to 0.1% or lower once we come up with an effective antiviral medication.
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  9. #101

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)


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  11. #102

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    I’m also hearing there are at least two different strains appearing right now, one more virulent than the other, and the less virulent being more deadly. Again, very little science yet to be able to verify those kinds of claims. So far much of it is simply extrapolation with insufficient hard data to confirm.

    I’m also STILL hearing that there isn’t a commercial provider of verifiable testing kits yet- only a few thousand tests have been created, and there is not yet wide distribution in the USA of testing ability.

    South Korea is testing far more people and getting far better data than the USA is. I guess having universal health care, as Korea (and almost the entire rest of the planet does) can help in times of needing quick, coordinated reaction.


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  13. #103

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    This is the data from South Korea:
    https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es...0&tag=&nPage=1
    162k negative cases, 7134 confirmed cases. That makes 169k tests with results back already. The US has tested maybe 2k people.

    Classification Cases (%) Death cases (%) Fatality rate (%)
    Total 6,284 -100 42 -100 0.7
    Sex Male 2,345 -37.3 25 -59.5 1.1
    Sex Female 3,939 -62.7 17 -40.5 0.4
    Age 0-9 45 -0.7 - - -
    Age 10-19 292 -4.6 - - -
    Age 20-29 1,877 -29.9 - - -
    Age 30-39 693 -11 1 -2.4 0.1
    Age 40-49 889 -14.1 1 -2.4 0.1
    Age 50-59 1,217 -19.4 5 -11.9 0.4
    Age 60-69 763 -12.1 11 -26.2 1.4
    Age 70-79 340 -5.4 14 -33.3 4.1
    Age Above 80 168 -2.7 10 -23.8 6
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  15. #104

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    South Korea is testing far more people and getting far better data than the USA is.
    Or just the fact that there are more cases in South Korea than the US.

    I guess having universal health care, as Korea (and almost the entire rest of the planet does) can help in times of needing quick, coordinated reaction.
    Universal healthcare did wonders to prevent the spread in Italy and Iran.

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  17. #105

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Or just the fact that there are more cases in South Korea than the US.



    Universal healthcare did wonders to prevent the spread in Italy and Iran.
    They only KNOW about more cases, because they are able to test far more people. I’m hearing of lots of people here, showing symptoms, and not being tested, because nobody has the test protocol, the equipment, or the lab found who can test.


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  19. #106

    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    the novel coronavirus most closely relates to a severe case of the common cold.

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/coronavirus-expert-says-the-virus-will-burn-itself-out-in-about-6-months/679415


    n a private conference call organized last week by CLSA, a brokerage firm based in Hong Kong, investment analysts had a chance to ask Nicholls, one of the world's foremost experts on the topic, questions about the novel coronavirus. In the days since the call took place, details of Nicholls' analysis have surfaced on social media and elsewhere online, including a transcript of the call.

    Nicholls responded to emailed questions from AccuWeather on Wednesday and confirmed his participation in the discussion, but emphasized that his remarks were made in “a personal capacity” and meant to remain “private.” He said the call was recorded “without my knowledge or consent” and then leaked on social media. When asked by AccuWeather, Nicholls did not dispute any of quotes attributed to him in the leaked transcript. CLSA has not responded to AccuWeather's request for a comment on the conference call.

    The transcript of the call showed Nicholls believes weather conditions will be a key factor in the demise of the novel coronavirus. Referencing the SARS outbreak from 2002 and 2003, Nicholls said he thinks similar weather factors will also shut down the spread of the novel coronavirus.

    "Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature, and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in response to a question about when he thinks confirmed cases will peak.

    However, Nicholls also said that he doesn't consider SARS or MERS, a Middle Eastern novel virus that spread in 2012, to be an accurate comparison for this year's outbreak. Rather, the novel coronavirus most closely relates to a severe case of the common cold.
    "Our Constitution was made only for a Moral and Religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the goverment of any other." John Adams 10/11/1798

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  21. #107

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    latest- Airlines cancelling flights now to Italy.

    Latest numbers from Italy:

    There are over 7,300 hundred cases of COVID-19 confirmed in Italy, of which 622 have since recovered and 366 people have died.

    Delta suspending flights to Rome:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#14dc50c05f87

    Dozens of other airlines either reducing schedules, or suspending flights entirely to China, Korea, Italy, Iran, and others:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN20W0NV

    and

    Israel bans all foreigners unless they can show they can be quarantined for 14 days.
    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...vals-1.8638322

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  23. #108

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    James those numbers are a day old.
    Italy is at 9,172 cases, 463 deaths. They added 1797 new cases and 97 deaths in the last 24 hours.
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