Re: 45, 15 years left, wondering about best allocation?
Mayfly,
I'm not the pure market time many in these parts are, but I have moved around my allocations to some extent.
You seem to have a very good handle on how the Lifecyle funds map into the individual funds. I think you are spot on regarding G/F to some extent - although the allocations you present are not horribly conservative. Think of the G Fund (in particular) as a cash holding that can be used aggressively during a market bump - or long term market advance. We seem to be in both situations today.
On the other hand, as I write this at 1212 EST you will miss a big chunk of the early correction correction. What I mean by that is that to get today's bounce you had to make the IFT trade Friday before 1200 EST. The trades take place at COB if done before 1200. I think - the market has been so good for so long my brain is in overdrive - IFTs that occur after 1200 EST take place at COB the NEXT day. So, if you do an IFT now you will not get the benefit till Wednesday morning. Ugh.
Now, my market timing is usually pretty good. I had a market timing cat that gave me great advice. She, regretfully, passed away last year and my new cats (don't ask about the plural - what a fiasco) have absolutely no feline feel for even major market moves. I flubbed this bad. Went from 65% C/S/I to 75% C/S/I at COB Monday. Market dumped for two days - ate it. Then was dumping on Friday. Lost my sticky pants and whimped out to a 50% C/S/I allocation - just in time to miss Fridays EOD smile and todays rebound. But, what I am saying is that even a schlub like me can make money while schlubbing. My 50% equities and 20% F will still net me great returns today if things continue. And, if the old pattern persists I will be been buffered.
Because I AM a schlub I use three (Aggressive, Normal, Conservative) allocations. I do not (generally) move all in/all out. But that is me. I sleep well.
Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!
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