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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7429

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Once again, the market showed its resilience today. This time, coming from negative territory to finish the day above the neutral line. Gives you the impression someone wants this market to stay afloat, doesn't it? We'll, that's probably why NAAIM remains bullish overall (and myself).

    The charts haven't changed much. They tracking a bit sideways at the moment.

    The CBOE is leaning a bit bearish this evening. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth remains positive, but it's not advancing. Like the averages, it's dancing sideways in positive territory.

    I think the biggest data point is the fact that NAAIM remains bullish, though as I posted earlier today there some bears among them. Just not enough to swing the overall reading. Still, I think we can expect continued back and forth action in the short term. But if the right piece of news comes out, this market may move quickly. I'm anticipating it will be to the upside once the bulls regain their footing.

    I remain neutral in the short term, but bullish beyond that.

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  3. #7430

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH,
    Where do you find the NAAIM reading? Is it free or does it require a subscription? Thanks always for your market analysis.

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  5. #7431

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Naaim.org

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  7. #7432

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks much. I just noticed that I did have it bookmarked. My brain has been getting a little soft since retiring a couple years ago

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  9. #7433

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by hotwings View Post
    Thanks much. I just noticed that I did have it bookmarked. My brain has been getting a little soft since retiring a couple years ago
    I just retired in December. Are you saying this is what I can now look forward to?

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  11. #7434

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Up until Friday, the S&P and DWCPF were holding their own. They were not down much. But Friday, the sellers came out in force and drove price lower. There was little opposition to the downside. Volume was elevated.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P tested the 50 dma, but did not break it. Price on the DWCPF did break, but only marginally.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth broke through and closed below the 21 day EMA. It the relatively recent past, that has been a good area to expect a reversal, though not necessarily a quick one.

    But we have a lot going on in terms of geopolitical and other types of events. Brexit is now official, but I seriously doubt the opposition will just go away. Perhaps the most serious challenge to the market is the coronavirus situation, which is getting a lot of attention. This has the potential to do more damage to the global economy. I stress "potential", because it may not be a serious as some would have us believe. It could begin to abate before we know it. That has happened with similar scares in the past.

    But my point is that it may be challenging to pick a bottom right now. Bottom picking is challenging all by itself, but we have headwinds that are not typical at the moment.

    And having said all that, it is also possible that the market turns around quickly on a given piece of news.

    For Monday, the CBOE is leaning decidedly bearish. TRINQ is also leaning bearish. TRIN is neutral.

    We saw NAAIM come in on Thursday's reading with an increase in bearish exposure, but there were still a lot of bulls in the survey. Unfortunately, the selling came the day after we got that reading, so some of those bulls may feel differently right now, but that is just speculation.

    My current perspective in all of this is that I think more selling is on tap. I point to the CBOE and the increase in bears in NAAIM along with the TRINQ reading. That means price on the S&P is likely going to breadth the 50 dma.

    I have said that my longer term perspective remains bullish and still does. I do not have reason to change my sentiment longer term. What I don't know, is where the bottom may occur. The 200 dma is still a long way away. I sure hope that isn't the target.


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  13. #7435

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After Friday's shot lower, Monday saw the market bounce. The bounce pushed price on the DWCPF back over its 50 dma. The S&P never fell under its 50 dma, but it too improved.

    This evening, the CBOE is bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth moved higher and is now neutral.

    I thought Monday would see downside follow through (based on the indicators), but that didn't happen (unless you included the intraday selling). But the market thought otherwise and closed for decent gains, though did not retrace all of Friday's losses.

    The back and forth action remains with us (NAAIM reflected this). I remain neutral.

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  15. #7436

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    That was some kind of upside follow through we had today, wasn't it? How many really saw it coming? Not that it was necessarily a surprise. In this market, upside surprises should be expected from time to time.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is really not all that far from its highs after today. Look at the DWCPF. It's already poking around resistance.

    I note that the CBOE is bullish again this evening. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish. Breadth flipped bullish again.

    We might see some weakness tomorrow after such a big move higher, but I suspect it won't last. I feel more confident at this point that the market may be ready to resume its upside march. We'll know soon enough.

    I am shifting from neutral back to bullish.

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  17. #7437

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    How close I came to panic selling last Friday... But then I remembered... The very worst day to sell is panic selling day.. Or to buy back in on panic buying day.. Lol... I guess I'm not cut out for this..i rode it out and am glad i did.

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    100% G fund COB 12/22/2023 Was 80%G 20%C

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  19. #7438

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by kb9nvh View Post
    How close I came to panic selling last Friday... But then I remembered... The very worst day to sell is panic selling day.. Or to buy back in on panic buying day.. Lol... I guess I'm not cut out for this..i rode it out and am glad i did.

    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    This is one of the reasons I follow NAAIM sentiment. That is my anchor. It is smart money. They are not emotional traders and therefore I can leverage their overall sentiment to frame my market expectations. The vast majority of the time it works very well. And it worked this time too. Some of those money managers got bearish recently, but most stayed bullish. These managers do not all trade the same and have different timelines (short, medium, longer term). To me, that makes it a valuable resource to get an idea of what to expect from week to week.

    Glad you held on.

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  21. #7439

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    2016 the panic drop happened and I sold and lost like 18k..taking me backward to about the same as if I had just stayed in the g fund .of course I never bought back in making the loss permanent and have been in g since a few months back.. The horror of 2016 was again upon me.. So I did opposite of my panic instinct.. Lol. Thanks to you and the rest of the group I didn't make the same mistake this time...
    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    This is one of the reasons I follow NAAIM sentiment. That is my anchor. It is smart money. They are not emotional traders and therefore I can leverage their overall sentiment to frame my market expectations. The vast majority of the time it works very well. And it worked this time too. Some of those money managers got bearish recently, but most stayed bullish. These managers do not all trade the same and have different timelines (short, medium, longer term). To me, that makes it a valuable resource to get an idea of what to expect from week to week.

    Glad you held on. coolhand's Account Talk
    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    100% G fund COB 12/22/2023 Was 80%G 20%C

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  23. #7440

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Have you forgotten about the selling yet? The market apparently has.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P and DWCPF are now both attempting another upside breakout.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is rising quickly once again. Remember, I said that when the signal breaks the 21 day EMA, it usually bottoms not all that long after. In this case, it happened very quick indeed.

    The CBOE is bullish once again. TRIN is neutral and TRINQ is leaning bearish.

    I am wondering if the train is leaving the station again. The news headlines suggest as much. I remain bullish.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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