Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

The trend remains up, but with MORE extremes.... I remain flat with my retirement funds, but was trading TNA last week. I'm looking for a move down next week, but will wait before going short. I will need to see a VXF sell signal and a VXX buy signal. So I wait as I still don't have one.

(NOT QE has been a real game changer)

New York Fed Plans to Throw $2.93 Trillion at Wall Street’s Trading Houses Over Next Month as New York Times Remains Silent

Last Thursday, December 12, the New York Fed announced that over the next month it would shower the trading houses (primary dealers) on Wall Street with a total of $2.93 trillion in short-term loans. The money is for a Wall Street liquidity crisis that has yet to be explained in credible terms to the American people and yet the New York Times does not appear to have an investigative reporter assigned to investigate what’s really going on just 11 years after those same trading houses blew themselves up in the biggest financial crash since the Great Depression and took the U.S. economy along for the ride.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/...emains-silent/

The VXX chart. Amazing move for the SKEW and look at VXX.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...89&a=706347501


Daily trend trading data remains up or hold long positions.... I'm flat based on the risk/reward data

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...68&a=705911255

TFTF
49
Prelude to Crisis
BY JOHN MAULDIN DECEMBER 20, 2019

The Fed now has also become a big part of the monetization process via its purchases of T-bills which also drives banks into buying notes. The Fed's balance sheet is now $335b higher than it was in September at $4.095 trillion. Again, however the Fed wants to define what it's doing, market participants view this as QE4 with all the asset price inflation that comes along with QE programs.

It will be real interesting to see what happens in 2020 to the repo market when the Fed tries to end its injections and how markets respond when its balance sheet stops increasing in size. It's so easy to get involved and so difficult to leave.

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/fro...lude-to-crisis

The trend remains up..... A risk/reward chart.... Note the word "Probably"


Chart of the decade, probably

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status...71804978409472

Yield Curve chart
Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

2h

Yield curve updated.
Gray areas = recessions

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...918016/photo/1

LT - Fed rate cut cycle data. Some think it will be different this time. We shall see..... VST trading JNUG again today.

I still believe (NOT QE has changed the game some..... so we shall see for how long. (Note IWM on my LT data chart)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...39&a=692181751




SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
16h
This is all kinds of misleading, but before getting too excited about the Nasdaq's run of 8 straight record closes, it's at least worth tapping the brakes and noting the last time it happened.
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader



James DePorre
@RevShark
1h
Christmas Eve 2019 Is the Mirror Image of 2018
While the indices are quite extended, there are no great emotional excesses like last year; if anything, there is complacency.

https://twitter.com/RevShark

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Not much to add. The extremes continue to get more extreme.

Note the monthly (Skew/VIX data) It better be different this time. (Not QE is doing well so far)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...84&a=705737382

SevenSentinels
‏

@SevenSentinels
2h2 hours ago
More
7:15 PM, December 26, 2019

Another High & Another Set Of Top Extremes in Sentiment

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
55m
On December 24 last year, 54% of the core indicators we track were showing extreme pessimism.

Yesterday, 55% of them were showing extreme *optimism*. That's the most in 15 years.
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

Here’s a warning for investors who are tempted by this year-end rally for stocks

“This is the time to be taking profits, not adding new money. Without a doubt, most of the people buying today will come to regret that decision over the next few weeks as prices dip back under these levels,” writes popular financial blogger Jani Ziedins of Cracked Market. While he says that a pullback may not occur until February.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...?mod=home-page

Still long VXX and TZA for a trade based on the 2 hour chart. Added another VXX tranche in the premarket.....

Waiting to see how it plays out.... The VXX daily is now on a buy signal too. Whipsaw? We shall see.....
2 hour.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...22&a=703005368

Daily.... The SPY remains on a hold long positions, but I'm flat VXF. VXF just went to a sell today, ( see trend trading chart) but will it be a whipsaw. BTFDers coming in already. I use the closing prices anyway. url]https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p29393550032&a=7027 74295[/url]

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...36&a=702774295

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...41&a=709231670

Good Trading!

SevenSentinels

LOLR Sell Signal Extrapolates Now For 10 AM

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Show less

One Tier and Rubble Down Below


John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

January 2020

We forget.

One of the striking things about bull markets is that they often end in confident exuberance, while simultaneously deteriorating from the inside. We’ve certainly observed this sort of selectivity during the past year. The market advance in 2019 fully recovered the market losses of late-2018, fueled by a wholesale reversal of Fed policy, hopes for a “phase one” trade deal, and as noted below, a bit of confusion about what actually constitutes “quantitative easing.”


Yet for all the bullish exuberance, speculative enthusiasm, and fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) we’ve observed among investors in recent weeks, and indeed, in the past two years, the fact is that a pullback of just 11% in the S&P 500 would place the total return of the S&P 500 Index behind the return on Treasury bills since the January 26, 2018 market high. Given current overextended extremes, the entire gain of the S&P 500 since early-2018 could be given up in a handful of trading sessions.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc191230/

Trading With Market Studies In 2019

Jason Goepfert



Published: 2019-12-30 at 1105 CST

https://www.sentimentrader.com//blog...udies-in-2019/