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Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

  1. #2881

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    I'm seeing a long term rising wedge in the SPX, which could drop to 2800 if it breaks down. Earnings season a possible catalyst? thoughts?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  3. #2882

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    I've was expecting a big decline to occur the last time it dropped from 2880 down to 2350. It dropped, but recovered very nicely. Just goes to show the strength of a market when corporations pay no taxes. I should have gotten in January and stayed there. But to repeat my refrain, I still expect a big drop. Staying out of the daily stuff till I see it happen. I don't want to catch a falling knife. Sometime between now and September I expect 2100.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  5. #2883

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    I'm seeing a long term rising wedge in the SPX, which could drop to 2800 if it breaks down. Earnings season a possible catalyst? thoughts?
    I am also seeing that Whipsaw....still waiting for a breakout. Netflix reported after the bell Tuesday and I thought that would be great for market since they beat estimates for revenue and earnings per share by a lot! But instead their shares dropped several percent after hours! FBN said technicians were waiting for subscriber numbers to come out....so why the drop Before that news?? Doesnt make sense.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  7. #2884

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Thanks FS and DBA,
    SPX 2100? That would take us all the way back to the election! =:-o I've been quite bearish of late, maybe I'm picking up on those vibes. Certainly feels like a melt up right now... Some articles point out buoyancy due to stock buy backs, not a great means of market support as that will end at some point. And Tom's point of overvaluation... the Fed cutting rates an inside tell on the economy? Hmmmmmmm......
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  9. #2885

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    I've was expecting a big decline to occur the last time it dropped from 2880 down to 2350. It dropped, but recovered very nicely. Just goes to show the strength of a market when corporations pay no taxes. I should have gotten in January and stayed there. But to repeat my refrain, I still expect a big drop. Staying out of the daily stuff till I see it happen. I don't want to catch a falling knife. Sometime between now and September I expect 2100.

    FS
    No kidding re: strength of market. Unfortunately, I've been too damned conservative all year and have missed most of the gains. It just seems to me that market strength is a result of surplus cash being available and, a lot like QE/Fed manipulation, the values are artificially inflated (or the value of money is deflated relative to stocks) and it can't last forever. At some point, it will come down. The questions are when, how far and how fast. In this environment, as a retiree, I probably will continue to err on the conservative side.

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  11. #2886

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Being on the lily pad for such a long time, it is tempting to get back in the game. But at this point, the fear of missing out kicks in and then we make a move we wish we hadn't. Eventually another pullback will occur and that will be the time to strike.

    I did notice that most of the people on Autotracker who are sporting 10% plus gains have made on average 2 to 3 moves so far this year. Seems the Buy and Holders are making out quite nicely so far this year...

    Patiently waiting in the G fund for the next big drop...
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  13. #2887

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Tried to log into tsp.gov and couldn't get in. Was going to put 50% in the S fund... maybe it was fate?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  15. #2888

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Tried to log into tsp.gov and couldn't get in. Was going to put 50% in the S fund... maybe it was fate?
    same here.

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  17. #2889

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Tried to log into tsp.gov and couldn't get in. Was going to put 50% in the S fund... maybe it was fate?
    I logged in this morning around 7am and didn't have a problem.
    May the force be with us.


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  19. #2890

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Would have caught a nice pop, d@mm!t! Oh well. Risk/reward not great right now, rate of climb has reduced, as has volume, not sure where earnings are going to go (would be good with the economy, just a guess). Oil is back over $60, that caused problems in the market the last time it occurred, high energy costs soaking up consumer cash, profits.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  21. #2891

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Yep, know the feeling. Since I exited to the G Fund on 7 Mar, the F fund is up 1.12%, the C fund is up 6.96%, the S fund is up 5.16% and the I fund is up 4.78%. But hey on the good side I have gained 0.34% sitting in the G fund...Makes a fella want to run out into the middle of traffic don't it...
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  23. #2892

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Interesting metaphor, RF! Stepping in right now I think may be the equivalent of running out into traffic... but what do I know. I've been spooked by that RSOTC guy. We are very close, if not at the top, of a rising wedge, overbought (Clester just bailed)... markets go down faster than they go up. Dang TSP site wouldn't let me in, or I'd have caught some of yesterday's pop. I'd like to see a drop to 2800, or even 2650. May be wishful thinking. Can the melt up go much longer?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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