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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6901

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Well, it sure was an interesting trading day, wasn't it? A hard downside reversal off the massive rally the previous day and then it gets reversed again in the final 90 minutes or so to close in the green. Another statement of who has control? One side wants to take it down and the other says 2 can play at this game. Good luck trading this volatility.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So the market managed to push a bit higher after all. Still, a ton of damage was done previously and it would take a whole lot more upside to reclaim those losses. But the bulls have a problem. NAAIM came in pretty darn bearish, which is normally bullish for a few days (expect in this market I would not bet heavily on that). Still, this reversal suggests more upside may indeed manifest. Futures are down right now, so we'll see what happens Friday.

    The options have not posted (again). Breadth remains quite negative, but is rising. That indicator along with my Advance/Decline indicators, while rising, are still well away from being positive. But if this is a bear market rally in progress we just might see several more percentage points of upside before a peak. I just don't like that bearish NAAIM reading.

    I remain neutral (really, who can tell where this thing is going?). The trend does remain down.

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  3. #6902

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No way I would get in this crazy market now.
    I will wait for a solid uptrend.
    Too scary for me.
    I'm good with my 10% gain for 2018! coolhand's Account Talk
    Being greedy never worked in my favor in the past. I shall wait.

    Sent from my XT1585 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

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  5. #6903

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by 1965Vintage View Post
    No way I would get in this crazy market now.
    I will wait for a solid uptrend.
    Too scary for me.
    I'm good with my 10% gain for 2018! coolhand's Account Talk
    Being greedy never worked in my favor in the past. I shall wait.

    Sent from my XT1585 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    +10% for 2018 means you beat the market by like 15-20%! Congrats!


  6.  
  7. #6904

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    All 3 TSP stock funds tacked on some nice gains last week. But it was a very volatile week and difficult to trade (even for more nimble traders). It appears we have a low in place, but are we forming a bear flag?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price is still well away from its 50 dma, but momentum has turned up so upside movement may continue in the short term. RSI is no longer oversold. My intermediate term system remains negative, though it in the process of improving. Breadth and volume are improving, but remain negative.

    The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bearish for Monday. NAAIM got beared up last week, which is a caution flag beyond the short term (which is near expired). TSP Talk came in at an even split, which is neutral.

    So, we may have a bear market rally in progress. Assuming such, the market is nowhere near out of the woods. How much actual upside can be achieved in the current market context is debatable, but I think that the bears still have the advantage beyond the short term. My longer term perspective remains bearish, but this decline appears to be controlled to some extent and there seems to be a force that is trying to keep it from falling apart too quickly. I think we should continue to anticipate that rallies will be sold.

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  9. #6905

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks. I hope the lows are a thing in the past for now.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  11. #6906

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday's action remained volatile as the market closed out 2018. All 3 TSP stock funds were lower on the year. The F fund was barely higher. The winner was the G fund, which is where I remained for most of the year.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that the bounce continued Monday. Momentum is still rising. I note that upside volume is very heavy in current trading. Breadth continued its rise and is getting near to a neutral level.

    The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is modestly bearish. It's going to be interesting to see how NAAIM positions itself come Thursday. They were beared up last week.

    Futures are moderately higher this evening, which suggests the bulls are still control. We may have several percentage points of upside left the way the indicators are turning up.

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  13. #6907

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH,
    You were smart to stay in the G most of the time. I almost moved all remaining equity allocation to the G after the last Trump /Xi meeting but I didn’t. Oh well, you can’t change the past. Hopefully we will see a better start to 2019. Thanks always for your daily analysis. It’s much appreciated. Happy New Year

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  15. #6908

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by hotwings View Post
    CH,
    Thanks always for your daily analysis. It’s much appreciated. Happy New Year
    Agree with Thanks for the daily analysis and Happy New Year to all!

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  17. #6909

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Not a very good start to 2019.
    May the force be with us.

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  19. #6910

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The first trading day of the new year began with significant selling pressure, but it didn't hold as the majors largely traded back to near neutral, give or take. That's actually good news for the bulls as it shows that those who want this market to hold together are pulling strings to make it happen. That doesn't mean we can get complacent (if true), but I think we can now give the nod to the bulls beyond the short term.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Futures fell hard again this evening, so the bears haven't gone away by any means. We'll have to see if their selling is met with any buying pressure either later in the day on Thursday or perhaps Friday. One thing is for sure; the volatility remains challenging in both directions.

    The options are neutral this evening. Breadth is still rising. My intermediate term system is on the mend, though it remains negative.

    I have to lean on futures as my main tell this evening and suspect that we will see more selling on Thursday. NAAIM reports late in the morning. I am watching the bulls to see how well they continue to counter the selling pressure.

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  21. #6911

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears clawed back on Thursday, which was not unexpected. But the decline was due and not out of the ordinary. We might even have a bull flag forming.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The OEX is modestly bearish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM came in more bullish. That is consistent with my expectation that a low is in for now and that the trend will likely remain to the upside.

    My intermediate term system flipped to a positive condition despite the selling today. Breadth is still negative, but is still trending upward.

    I am looking higher for Friday.

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  23. #6912

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While I was looking higher for Friday, I had no way of knowing how big the move would prove to be. It was huge.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    If you weren't sure whether the bulls were in control before, you might be after Friday's shot. Momentum turned back up. I suspect we'll be seeing a test of the 50 dma perhaps next week.

    The options are bearish for Monday. TSP Talk came in beared up, which is bullish. NAAIM is leaning bullish. Sentiment suggests the market continues to trend back to the upside.

    Breadth and upside volume are looking bullish. TRIN and TRINQ suggest weakness on Monday. My intermediate term system is positive.

    I'm looking for a pullback on Monday, but the trend is up in the intermediate term.


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