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Thread: Cactus' Account Talk

  1. #205

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    The I fund may be facing a strong headwind during April. No way to know for sure, but the dollar could have just bottomed after bouncing off the 200dma.

    UUP - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    So, yes, the I fund is statistically the way to go in April, but look at how overbought the index is...

    EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    While the S fund has room to rumble...

    $DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    I'm in the I fund and it's shot me up from the 900's in the tracker to the 400's (not to mention that I just hit my retirement target for my tsp today! ) but I'm contemplating bucking the trend in April. Over the last 10 years, the I fund has averaged a 3.61% gain in April, versus 2.83% for S, and 2.69% for C. All very strong but if there's a dollar headwind then S or C could win out. I might spread my bets in April and go with a CSI mix.

  2.  
  3. #206

    Join Date
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    3,024

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Good strategy TS! And HOW BOUT THEM ZAGS!

    I have loved every game. The WV game was a nail biter. They are some tough hombres.

    Wish I had tickets to the Final Four since it's here in Phoenix but it will just be my wife and I and our good friends: cold beer, nachos, burgs, and lots of Hagen Daz to get us through the game..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  4.  
  5. #207

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    French elections towards the end of April could rattle the "I" fund. Not sure how the protesting in Russia will affect the "I" fund for the next week or two, currently it doesn't seem to be. The "I" fund statistically has been strong in April, I wonder with such a strong showing in March if it flattens out for April. Tsunami, like you said maybe a "CSI" for April might not be a bad idea. What kind of percentages are you thinking?
    May the force be with us.


  6.  
  7. #208

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    The I fund may be facing a strong headwind during April. No way to know for sure, but the dollar could have just bottomed after bouncing off the 200dma.

    UUP - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    So, yes, the I fund is statistically the way to go in April, but look at how overbought the index is...

    EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    While the S fund has room to rumble...

    $DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

    I'm in the I fund and it's shot me up from the 900's in the tracker to the 400's (not to mention that I just hit my retirement target for my tsp today! ) but I'm contemplating bucking the trend in April. Over the last 10 years, the I fund has averaged a 3.61% gain in April, versus 2.83% for S, and 2.69% for C. All very strong but if there's a dollar headwind then S or C could win out. I might spread my bets in April and go with a CSI mix.
    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    French elections towards the end of April could rattle the "I" fund. Not sure how the protesting in Russia will affect the "I" fund for the next week or two, currently it doesn't seem to be. The "I" fund statistically has been strong in April, I wonder with such a strong showing in March if it flattens out for April. Tsunami, like you said maybe a "CSI" for April might not be a bad idea. What kind of percentages are you thinking?
    Yes, I been thinking of remaining in the S Fund for precisely these reasons. If I switched to the I Fund now I would be buying high and locking in my losses in the S Fund right at the time when it could be coming back. The S Fund has the most room to come back. I still have a few more days before April to decide.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  8.  
  9. #209

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Yes, I been thinking of remaining in the S Fund for precisely these reasons. If I switched to the I Fund now I would be buying high and locking in my losses in the S Fund right at the time when it could be coming back. The S Fund has the most room to come back. I still have a few more days before April to decide.
    I used my first IFT to jump from "S" to "I" Monday and yesterday was good for both, figures. Hoping the "S" fund stays lower so I have a chance to jump back without taking too much of a hit. The rest of the week will be interesting.
    May the force be with us.

  10.  
  11. #210

    Join Date
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    3,729

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Looks like I Fund gapped down with the BREXIT news, hopefully it will climb out.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  13. #211

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    French elections towards the end of April could rattle the "I" fund. Not sure how the protesting in Russia will affect the "I" fund for the next week or two, currently it doesn't seem to be. The "I" fund statistically has been strong in April, I wonder with such a strong showing in March if it flattens out for April. Tsunami, like you said maybe a "CSI" for April might not be a bad idea. What kind of percentages are you thinking?
    I just moved to 40% S, 30% C, 30% I in my account. I was able to do so since I still had a 2nd IFT left thanks to my screw-up earlier this month when I apparently clicked on the contribution allocation change link instead of the IFT link. So in the tracker I can't change it and will still show 100% I, argh. My actual account return is very close to the Autotracker return, but now they will diverge a bit, who knows which way, but I do think the I fund is likely to lag C and/or S in April. Here's a ratio chart that shows the turn up from a very oversold level...
    $DWCPF:EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

  14.  
  15. #212

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
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    Sometimes Maryland, Sometimes Texas
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    3,504

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Looks like I Fund gapped down with the BREXIT news, hopefully it will climb out.
    I thought about exiting today as this was only a short play for me. However, it may be smarter to wait until tomorrow before I exit. As you know, Friday is the end of the quarter and typically when the institutional money takes profits, so I'm thinking the big boys will be padding their returns through tomorrow and we have a sell-off on Friday...It will probably be a break even day today...
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  17. #213

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
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    680

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Tom may be able to fix that error in Autotracker.

  18.  
  19. #214

    Join Date
    Oct 2010
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    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I just moved to 40% S, 30% C, 30% I in my account. I was able to do so since I still had a 2nd IFT left thanks to my screw-up earlier this month when I apparently clicked on the contribution allocation change link instead of the IFT link. So in the tracker I can't change it and will still show 100% I, argh.
    Hey, go ahead and put in your current IFT into the Tracker. If you do it today, it will reflect it COB tomorrow, and at least you will be starting off April with the correct mix and 2 fresh IFTs.
    There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who know binary, and those that don't!!
    Retired on December 31, 2018!!

  20.  
  21. #215

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    This is not looking good. The S Fund just doesn't get a break.

    I guess it's waiting for me to bail. Well keep waiting.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  22.  
  23. #216

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    OK, what just happened at 2:00 P.M. that caused the market to jump?
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Cactus' Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
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