Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Whoo hoo, I'm retirement eligible today!

Things area looking good for the markets. Those that have and will exit before the vote results are announced late Friday should add fuel to the rally next week as they re-enter. That's my hope anyway.

Yes, but can you afford to retire? That's going to be my sticking point in 2022. At the rate I've been going these last few years I will need to stick around another 5 years past my eligible retirement date to be able to afford retirement.

Congrats TS. It is a good feeling even if what Cactus says is true. I reached my MRA with 10 years 9 months fed time. So I was eligible. But not likely to leave. Still you always have that thought on bad days that you are eligible.

PO

Originally Posted by Cactus

Yes, but can you afford to retire? That's going to be my sticking point in 2022. At the rate I've been going these last few years I will need to stick around another 5 years past my eligible retirement date to be able to afford retirement.

I could retire now if I really despised my job or needed to for health or other reasons, but if nothing changes I'll go between 1 and 3 years longer, depending on several moving parts. One of the moving parts holding up my retiring soon is the Windfall Elimination Provision. I won't reach 30 years of "substantial earnings" paying into social security until March 2019. I'm watching H.R. 711 closely though. It now has over 120 sponsors from both sides of the aisle https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-...711/cosponsors and if Congress gets off their duff and passes it this year that will eliminate that part of the equation for me and I'll likely go within 2 years.

Originally Posted by Tsunami

I could retire now if I really despised my job or needed to for health or other reasons, but if nothing changes I'll go between 1 and 3 years longer, depending on several moving parts. One of the moving parts holding up my retiring soon is the Windfall Elimination Provision. I won't reach 30 years of "substantial earnings" paying into social security until March 2019. I'm watching H.R. 711 closely though. It now has over 120 sponsors from both sides of the aisle https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-...711/cosponsors and if Congress gets off their duff and passes it this year that will eliminate that part of the equation for me and I'll likely go within 2 years.

Would the Windfall Elimination Provision apply to you as a federal employee? I copied this from the ssa.gov website

"The Windfall Elimination Provision doesn’t apply if:

1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 
               
               1. 1. 1. You’re a federal worker first hired after December 31, 1983;
                     2. You were employed on December 31, 1983, by a nonprofit organization that didn’t withhold Social Security taxes from your pay at first, but then began withholding Social Security taxes;
                     3. Your only pension is for railroad employment;
                     4. The only work you performed for which you didn’t pay Social Security taxes was before 1957; or
                     5. You have 30 or more years of substantial earnings under Social Security."
                  
                  
                  
                  1. 
                     
                     
               
               
               
               
               
   
   

https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10045.pdf

Also following the WEP TS. I am eligible for SSA now but continue to postpone because I'd like the provision to be in effect before I decide to claim anything through SSA. Appreciate all the work that NARFE does for us. It will provide a nice benefit to my monthly SSA if it passes. Congrats on being retirement eligible. It's really great to know you can retire any day you feel like it.

FS

Novatwo - Yep, it applies...I was first hired under CSRS in October 1982...I have about 7.6 years under CSRS, then left the government for a couple years to work as a consultant, then came back in 1991. I had a choice of CSRS Offset, or FERS, and chose FERS since CSRS Offset also pays into SS but doesn't get the full TSP benefit. I currently have 27 years of "substantial earnings", so if I retired now the first $849 or whatever of my SS would be cut 15%...as would my wife's I believe since she'll end up getting half of my benefit. It' not a huge cut in our overall income stream, but just the idea of any cut really irks me so I might work as late as March 2019 to get that 30th year in...my financial goals should be met around mid-2017 though, so I might end up going sooner...heck, with today's jump in the I fund I just made about 20% of what I need to reach my TSP goal in one day if it holds...but I could lose that and a whole lot more tomorrow if "Brexit" wins LOL....fingers crossed.

By the way, following my tsp timing system precisely would have had me go 100% I fund yesterday. That would have worked well. I've now finished my huge spreadsheet for my system, and the manual that describes it...and am awaiting a business license from the county...next up is to actually start working on the websites (there will be two, one for the TSP and one for ETFs, which can also use the strategy with ETFs that mimic the TSP (SPY or VOO, VXF, EFA or IEFA, and AGG) and go live with it...my goal is by Labor day...that will be one of my retirement hobbies, and if it exceeds my expectations for income that would let me ignore the WEP thing and retire next year. The strategy has averaged about 22% over the last 12 years...is up 13% this year...has never had a negative year over those 12 years...and has beaten the C fund every year...I keep expecting it to fall on its face but it doesn't...my biggest challenge is just to start following it myself!

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Novatwo - Yep, it applies...I was first hired under CSRS in October 1982...I have about 7.6 years under CSRS, then left the government for a couple years to work as a consultant, then came back in 1991. I had a choice of CSRS Offset, or FERS, and chose FERS since CSRS Offset also pays into SS but doesn't get the full TSP benefit. I currently have 27 years of "substantial earnings", so if I retired now the first $849 or whatever of my SS would be cut 15%...as would my wife's I believe since she'll end up getting half of my benefit. It' not a huge cut in our overall income stream, but just the idea of any cut really irks me so I might work as late as March 2019 to get that 30th year in...my financial goals should be met around mid-2017 though, so I might end up going sooner...heck, with today's jump in the I fund I just made about 20% of what I need to reach my TSP goal in one day if it holds...but I could lose that and a whole lot more tomorrow if "Brexit" wins LOL....fingers crossed.

By the way, following my tsp timing system precisely would have had me go 100% I fund yesterday. That would have worked well. I've now finished my huge spreadsheet for my system, and the manual that describes it...and am awaiting a business license from the county...next up is to actually start working on the websites (there will be two, one for the TSP and one for ETFs, which can also use the strategy with ETFs that mimic the TSP (SPY or VOO, VXF, EFA or IEFA, and AGG) and go live with it...my goal is by Labor day...that will be one of my retirement hobbies, and if it exceeds my expectations for income that would let me ignore the WEP thing and retire next year. The strategy has averaged about 22% over the last 12 years...is up 13% this year...has never had a negative year over those 12 years...and has beaten the C fund every year...I keep expecting it to fall on its face but it doesn't...my biggest challenge is just to start following it myself!

Tsunami, I didn't even think about broken service. I just checked my earnings record and see that my first 5 years do not qualify as substantial earnings. The govt seems to make everything complicated.

That was an awesome call from your system, when will we be able to learn about it and sign up?

Originally Posted by novatwo

Tsunami, I didn't even think about broken service. I just checked my earnings record and see that my first 5 years do not qualify as substantial earnings. The govt seems to make everything complicated.

That was an awesome call from your system, when will we be able to learn about it and sign up?

My goal was by Thanksgiving, but I'm gonna try to push myself to find time to do it sooner, maybe by Labor Day. I've already figured out the webhost, type of site (WordPress), and the WordPress theme...the merchant account, shopping cart, all that stuff...now it's a matter of finding time to put it all together...the darn day job gets in the way...and I have a 17-day road trip/vacation coming up...driving all the way up to Jasper, Alberta, seven national parks, looking forward to that! Another thing that will make it stand out is that it won't be a subscription service...just a one-time cost to buy it (including the IFTs to make for at least 5 years into the future, it's totally mechanical and doesn't care about news) and then on your own you decide if you want to use it, or even modify it to your own liking (such as by removing the lunar component that many will find hard to swallow)...I think I'll even post a discount code for those that discover it here in this forum. I can't promote it here though...don't think Tom nor the other premium services here would like that much, and I'll respect that. Maybe I'll just mention it one time once it's online. I'm having a really hard time training myself to follow it...I can't resist straying from the system using Elliott waves and other TA, and news...but that's been my failing for the last umpteen years and the whole reason behind developing it, so that I can completely ignore TA and news and just go on auto-pilot...and do a LOT better...since I've been kinda-sorta following it for the last few months I've vaulted from #996 in the tracker to #186...and if things hold today I'll jump above the F fund herd finally. Tomorrow should really shake things up one way or the other, but my system will keep me in until before the next jobs report on 7/8.

Just got home after flight delays from a business trip and....Youch! Brexit! Well, for the record I reached #89 today, 5.7%...and was only 5% from my retirement goal....and then "Brexit" slams the market. So much for the smart betters saying it wouldn't happen. Only bright spot for me is I bought quite a bit of NUGT and other gold hedges today and my trading and IRA counts will actually go up on this news.

Lots of pain for many tomorrow.....and the decision on whether to stay in or not won't be easy. Erik Hadik predicted/warned this would happen due to that ~5 month cycle from last August, to January, and now again in late June...it's hitting like clockwork...late November would be the next market dump if it repeats again. I wonder where the I fund will finish tomorrow....down 10%?

Looking for a pullback starting tomorrow....

https://twitter.com/WildcatTrader/st...929920/photo/1