Thread: clester's Account Talk

The problem with trading the TSP is days like yesterday. After noon there is a big rally and it follows through he next day. We miss 2 big up days by not being able to get in until the close of the second day.

I will probably have a mild buy okay as we break out to a newer high from recent highs but there is still a lot of esistance above and RSI/price divergence could be playing out. We won't know for sure until a pull back happens. We are still in a bear market. A new month is coming. So, my system is in a bit of a pickle.

I like being in on the first of the month but not just because of any reason. It needs to be part of my system. My system has me out for now because the S&P RSI is at 70. Doesn't mean it can't go up more. It's just the odds are not in favor of it. There is still lots of overhead resistance as well. The S fund still has room up to its 200 dma.

Just closed my charts but I was thinking some 200dma's possible. You mentioning the 70 RSI brings me some flashbacks, the DJIA is just over it, and no, very seldom lasts. But, can show some power very short term. I'm only in about 25% so decided to see what happens. Good luck Clester.

Clester, you're cookin' on the AT.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Clester, you're cookin' on the AT.

Thanks, but since I got out I've been losing spots. I am only up 2.3% over C fund. I was up 4%

We are in a very strong uptrend channel on S&P but it's RSI is over 70 (overbought) again but there is no price/RSI divergence now. In a very strong market that can last longer than you think. There is a lot of resistance between here and the all time high though.

S fund has about 1% up to its 200 dma where there will be a big test. It's RSI is not a problem except it could be setting up a divergence on price/RSIi.

Sentiment is high and we are in a bear market (50dma below 200dma) so caution is the word. I could justify a 50% buy but i think we should see a pull back soon because I'm getting that "I'm missing out feeling" and that usually a good contrarian indicator. I hate giving up my lead over S&P though.

Big back and forth swings indicate uncertainty and often also indicate a reversal of current trend. So, I would expect a pull back to begin and perhaps test the 200 dma and maybe the 50 dma in S&P.

The 50 dma is rising rapidly and we should have a bullish cross of the 50 going above the 200 fairly soon unless we get a bigger pull back than I expect. In a bull market my system has me in stocks at least 50%.

Originally Posted by clester

Big back and forth swings indicate uncertainty and often also indicate a reversal of current trend. So, I would expect a pull back to begin and perhaps test the 200 dma and maybe the 50 dma in S&P.

The 50 dma is rising rapidly and we should have a bullish cross of the 50 going above the 200 fairly soon unless we get a bigger pull back than I expect. In a bull market my system has me in stocks at least 50%.

A pretty good analyst predicted a bounce to 2060 (which we got yesterday), a drop to 2011 might happen in the coming days), another bounce back to 2022 and then a drop to 1991 for the S&P. I want to see how accurate his forecasting is.

Originally Posted by jkenjohnson

A pretty good analyst predicted a bounce to 2060 (which we got yesterday), a drop to 2011 might happen in the coming days), another bounce back to 2022 and then a drop to 1991 for the S&P. I want to see how accurate his forecasting is.

Somewhere around 1991 looks like a reasonable target. I think we could test the 50 dma if we do get a pull back.

I'm getting that bullish feeling. I will need a breakout above the recent highs to trigger a buy though. That's 2075 or so on S&P. The 50 dma is still rising and could cross above the 200 dma soon which would trigger my bull market rules. The main one being I will be at least 50% stocks. There is still a lot of resistance above all the way up to the all time high Though so I expect choppy trading..

Originally Posted by clester

I'm getting that bullish feeling. I will need a breakout above the recent highs to trigger a buy though. That's 2075 or so on S&P. The 50 dma is still rising and could cross above the 200 dma soon which would trigger my bull market rules. The main one being I will be at least 50% stocks. There is still a lot of resistance above all the way up to the all time high Though so I expect choppy trading..

Looks like the 1991 forecast was wrong unless the market tanks soon.

Originally Posted by jkenjohnson

Looks like the 1991 forecast was wrong unless the market tanks soon.

Doesn't look like it. The S fund is right at its 200 dma (1009 on dwcpf) which could be resistance and C fund is right at recent highs. So..... We'll see