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Thread: Cactus' Account Talk

  1. #157

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Hi Cactus: I logged into TSP and took the survey last week. I said we need more IFT's, a later time in the day 3-4pm to make IFTs, and allow us have Stops in our trades. I know. I know...I told them too much...

    I wish everyone on the site would let them know their concerns...as well as NARFE or the NTEU (?)....Wish we had someone that knows the unions to lead that charge.....hmmmm, what long time TSPer could that be?

    BTW Cactus: I generally don't follow conspiracy theories but I saw this You Tube video posted and found it fascinating and quite frankly frightening. Probably just BS but it makes the X-Files seem a lot more real..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j61dWtJrsgY

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  2.  
  3. #158

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    As the article points out you can pull out and miss the bounce back up. No one can predict constantly what the market will do.
    I buy and hold and keep buying.

    "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

    Warren Buffett

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    If, you are getting out, or have already gotten out, when do you get back in? That is an important decision as well, as this article points out.

    Went to cash? Here's the next mistake you'll make - Yahoo Finance

    Sounds to me like FWM's strategy of staying in most of the time but avoiding periods of decline for a spell could pay off simply by buying in at lower price points routinely. You may still be negative in years like this one, but not as negative as the market. That assumes of course that you can pull this off.

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  5. #159

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    For those still wondering about my contrarian indicator, CRAP (Cactus' Reverse And Profit), here are the current and historical returns:

    Cactus CRAP
    2014 (7.39%) 24.76%
    2015 8.71% (5.87%)
    2016 Feb 12 (10.78%) 1.05%
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  6.  
  7. #160

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Alternate between the two - This year CRAP, next year Cactus, year after that CRAP, etc......

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    For those still wondering about my contrarian indicator, CRAP (Cactus' Reverse And Profit), here are the current and historical returns:

    Cactus CRAP
    2014 (7.39%) 24.76%
    2015 8.71% (5.87%)
    2016 Feb 12 (10.78%) 1.05%

  8.  
  9. #161

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Have you continued following your system during this recent market volatility or have you been paralyzed into inaction with that deer-in-the-headlights look?

    Is the Recent Stock Market Volatility Giving You

    When you come up with a system it has to work for you in bear markets as well as bull markets or you'll end up relying on your emotions and losing what you worked so hard to gain.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  10.  
  11. #162

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Have you continued following your system during this recent market volatility or have you been paralyzed into inaction with that deer-in-the-headlights look?

    Is the Recent Stock Market Volatility Giving You

    When you come up with a system it has to work for you in bear markets as well as bull markets or you'll end up relying on your emotions and losing what you worked so hard to gain.
    Attachment 37226

    I know that look.....

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


  12.  
  13. #163

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Have you continued following your system during this recent market volatility or have you been paralyzed into inaction with that deer-in-the-headlights look?

    Is the Recent Stock Market Volatility Giving You

    When you come up with a system it has to work for you in bear markets as well as bull markets or you'll end up relying on your emotions and losing what you worked so hard to gain.
    I'll keep buying and holding.

  14.  
  15. #164

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by markmars View Post
    I'll keep buying and holding.
    Well that's not so bad. I keep buying and LOSING!!!!!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

  16.  
  17. #165

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Well that's not so bad. I keep buying and LOSING!!!!!

    FS
    I can relate to that. Want to borrow my avatar?
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  18.  
  19. #166

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    I bailed 100% G today. Too much bullish sentiment out there for my taste. Now that the S&P500 has punched through the 50 day SMA the sentiment seams to be that it will continue up to the 200. I don't think so. I think we will pull back first.

    My contrarian side says not quite yet, though. We've had two down opening-days-of-the-month in a row so we are due for a positive one in March. Unfortunately I think we are too overbought for that and the best you could hope for is a flat day.

    All things considered I decided not to be greedy and to keep what I managed to get in February. Looking to buy in again after the next downturn in March.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  20.  
  21. #167

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    The risk of investing in the G Fund: The True Cost of the G Fund : FedSmith.com

    No this is not about congress borrowing our money when they can't agree on a budget.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  22.  
  23. #168

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    I agree that inflation is the silent killer. But the mortality rate in a G is lower than a poorly picked fund with just a few years left to retirement.

    Young-uns can Dollar Cost Average to paradise. Got it. No market timing required unless you want to pull funds out at the top of a bull. Better get the ID on that bull right, though.

    The safety in the G fund is not the fact that inflation will decrease what gains we get.......the G fund will provide more cash (though after the inflation demise) than some fund that is tracking down in a declining market (be it bonds or stocks).

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