Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Originally Posted by robo

nnuutt,


I mainly day-trade these days Brotherman. I retired a few years ago and started posting my moves here for a couple of old co-works that asked me to let them know when I made moves in my TSP account.

I hope things are going well for you.

Nah I don't own stocks but have been retired since Jan 2010 and love it, I'm taking Mandatory Distributions from my TSP and am living very comfortably. Best of luck with your investments.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Good to see you, robo! With the bear cave seeing activity again, there must be a bear market brewing.

Thanks Tom! I don't know if one is coming for sure, but my stock market trades are all only short-term trades using Bear Market rules these days.. The trend for IWM has been down for several months now.

Good luck if you are ST trading. I day-trade NUGT and JNUG l (lessons learned the hard way holding these overnight). I MT trade GDXJ and the S Fund/VXF most of the time.


GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com



IWM - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Good trading.



I say we shall see, and I remain long GDXJ for now.


Bullish Expectations In The Metals In 2016 « Korelin Economics Report


https://ewt-633071.c.cdn77.org/image...JqEyC7y6Pt.jpg

I made a few bucks in the gold futures today on the long side, but that is fighting the trend. I've done much better shorting gold in the last year (obviously).

Been there, done that with those gold miner 3X ETF's. I still take a stab and will hold overnight once in a while, but ouch! It can be painful as you said.

Stocks....

Long for a ST trade....

IWM - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


SevenSentinels ‏@SevenSentinels · 6h6 hours ago
2:50 Countertrend Rebound Attempt Failing

https://twitter.com/sevensentinels


Flat the miners again.

$HUI:GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD...84&a=439557680

China crashing again.

China Trading suspended tonight after China fell another 7% in 30 minutes.

China stock trading halted early after 7% plunge

Source: MarketWatch (WSJ)


Home Markets Asia The Wall Street Journal
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By Shen Hong
Published: Jan 6, 2016

Newly installed ‘circuit breaker’ kicks in after 30 minutes

SHANGHAI — China’s stock market tumbled and scored its shortest trading day in its 25-year history on Thursday, as Beijing’s growing tolerance of a weaker currency intensified concerns about capital flight and the health of the world’s No. 2 economy.

The stock market stopped trading about 30 minutes after opening, as a newly-installed mechanism to limit volatility kicked in for the second time this week.


The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -7.32% ended the dramatically brief trading day down 7.2% at 3115.89.


The selloff was reminiscent of the similar but more drawn-out episode on Monday, the first day the so-called “circuit breaker” trading curb was in effect. The circuit breaker system is triggered by sharp moves in an index that tracks that largest 300 stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the CSI 300. When the index moves 5%, trading is automatically halted for 15 minutes, while a 7% move stops trading for the remainder of the session.

Read more: China stock trading halted early after 7% plunge - MarketWatch

A ugly open for stocks today!


When you have to sell you sell what you can.....

Looks like some might be getting some Margin calls overnight based on the Yen!


https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels/s...38989678137344

IWM

IWM - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

SevenSentinels ‏@SevenSentinels · 48m48 minutes ago
It's gonna be interesting tonight to see how China trades with no circuit breakers & how SPOOZ reacts

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels/s...10337637871616


$NYA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

$NYMO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

IWM - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com



MrDev‏@TheMrDev
$RUT 4-hr Chart #OverSoLD with #Markets Im Interested in a Short Term Long #Trade in #SPX or $INDU $TF_F #NDX $VIX



https://twitter.com/TheMrDev/status/685183825882710018

I'm sure starting this year out poorly with my TSP funds. I added some more stock positions Friday using my Scottrade accounts. My TSP account is fairly small now. When I retired I moved much of my money to Scottrade. I have always hated the two moves a month early in the morning that TSP has, but I'm not an investor I'm a trader. I normally leave my TSP funds in the G Fund and only move into stocks when I'm seeing extremes....I was way to early this time, but that's the risk we take. I like the G Fund for some of my retirement money, but like I said I will move into stocks if I think we are close to a ST bounce....

I'm flat GDXJ and waiting to go long again. I trade GDXJ based on what GLD is doing. The miners will follow most of the time.


GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com



A comment from Kaplan:

This is update #2145 for Friday afternoon, January 8, 2016.

The media are full of stories about how we are allegedly in a “new bear market” for U.S. equities. We are certainly in a bear market, but there is nothing new about it. Most U.S. equity indices had topped out in either May or June 2015. Some the fang-heavy indices were able to achieve new peaks in the fourth quarter of 2015. Meanwhile, thousands of small-cap U.S. shares which normally gain roughly 4% for each 3% rise in the S&P 500 had been underperforming since the first week of March 2014 and are mostly down more than 10% from their highs of that month which was almost two years ago. The media only recognize a trend when it has already accelerated and is usually ready for a short-term move the opposite way, and they also misunderstand how bear markets progress. The biggest losses are almost always in the final months rather than in the early stages. There will continue to be periodic corrections as is characteristic of most bear markets, but recent fears of a crash or collapse during the next several months are almost certainly unfounded. Most downtrends in the early stages of bear markets don’t result in losses of 30%, 40%, or 50%. Such outsized declines usually happen at the very end when investors panic and conclude that the stock market will take years to recover. While there will likely be above-average volatility throughout 2016, the year will probably end with a moderate double-digit total loss for most U.S. equity indices. The biggest percentage declines will likely happen in 2017, and then 2018 will probably experience huge moves in both directions as is typical of a multi-decade bottoming pattern for any sector.

I always ask myself what no one is expecting, which is therefore most likely to occur. If you look at
Yahoo Finance - Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News as I cite frequently in the upcoming links, most analysts are negative on U.S. equity indices in the short run while being bullish for 2016 overall. Some are predicting a stock-market crash, as others expect a gradual recovery. Therefore, all of them will be wrong. We won’t have a crash, we won’t have gains for 2016, and in fact the year will probably end with moderate double-digit losses for most U.S. equity indices. This will punish the huge number who remain long, while also punishing those who are long while hedging with out-of-the-money puts which will mostly expire. As long as a moderate total loss for 2016 remains a highly unpopular expectation, it will continue to be the most likely one. If many start to agree with me then I will probably have to change my outlook.

You would think that at least one analyst would be asking whether we could be in a protracted bear market, and if we are, then when it is likely to end and how severe it might become. Those are essential questions which no one is considering, as everyone is obsessed with what will happen later in January and automatically assumes that by the end of 2016 we will have either crashed and begun to recover or we will be setting new all-time highs. It would be a lot more useful to know whether the current bear markets for U.S. equity indices will continue until 2017 or 2018, and whether we will or won’t go below the lows of late 2008 and early 2009 to reach the most depressed levels since the mid-1980s. If you see a single article about this topic anywhere, please let me know. Usually whatever is most important is most ignored by the mainstream financial media.

Whenever the financial markets behave a certain way, even for a brief time period, the financial media suddenly feature commentary about why the latest activity “was inevitable” while just as suddenly removing or burying analyses which had been expecting the opposite behavior. No one who was reading any mainstream financial web site should forget that almost all of the stories about U.S. equities were positive while almost all of the coverage of precious metals had been negative as recently as one week ago. Some of the recent bearish commentary regarding U.S. equity indices has been interesting, even if I don’t necessarily agree with many of the statements or conclusions. I have spoken personally with Marc Faber and I always respect his ideas even though I rarely concur with most of what he is saying:

• Marc Faber: Stocks Have Been Falling for Over a Year–and It’s Going to Get Worse

Faber: Stocks have been falling for over a year

An organization called ETH Zürich in Switzerland publishes a useful essay on the first day of each month, with the current monograph explaining how many global commodities are in what they call a “negative bubble” driven almost entirely by emotions and which will be followed by powerful rallies for these assets. Click on the topmost “synthesis report”:

• Financial Crisis Observatory

Financial Crisis Observatory

It is fascinating to observe the divergences of opinion which often occur when surprises happen in the financial markets. On Finance.Yahoo.com they are featuring Mohamed El-Erian who points out that central banks have little power to calm global financial markets:

• Mohamed El-Erian: This Dwarfs Worries About China

Mohamed El-Erian: THIS dwarfs worries about China - Yahoo Finance

Dennis Gartman has turned negative toward U.S. equity indices, perhaps signaling a sharp short-term upward bounce which all bear markets will periodically experience whenever negativity becomes pervasive–although if Gartman were talking about the end of 2016 (which he emphatically is not) rather than the next several weeks then I would agree with his forecast:

• Dennis Gartman Sees Stocks Dropping Another 10%-15%

Dennis Gartman sees stocks dropping another 10%-15% - Yahoo Finance

The usual bulls are mostly just as bullish now as they had been a week ago, as it will require perhaps two years for most of them to become gloomy. They continue to ignore the warnings of small-cap weakness since March 2014, lower highs for most U.S. indices since the second quarter of 2015, the diminishing number of new 52-week highs, and other typical warning signs in the early stages of any severe bear market:

• Jeremy Siegel: S&P Will See 10% Upside by Year-End

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeremy...200000305.html

The following analysis supports the idea of a sharp short-term bounce for U.S. equity indices which I think has become increasingly likely, and will be essential to observe to see how commodity-related and emerging-market assets are behaving in 2016 during periods of above-average volatility:

• Why This Week’s Market Meltdown Could Be a Big Fat Buy Signal

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...nal-2016-01-08

http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

I follow cycles as part of my overall trading system to try and catch turns. As we all know these are just tools for us to try and take lower risk trades/moves in our TSP accounts.


The 1/08/16 Weekend Report Preview

Posted on January 9, 2016


http://imageshack.com/a/img905/1735/UXQhSS.jpg

Friday was day 36 for the daily equity cycle placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The timing band can extend out for 2 to 3 weeks. However, stocks are very oversold which should trigger a bounce that can lead to printing a daily cycle low.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker


https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/

Is the Gold Bear finally over? For those of us trading and investing in the yellow metal we wait!


$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com




Breaking the Gold Bear
Posted on January 10, 2016


Some GLD charts.....

GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com



Gold consolidated for about a month before breaking higher. Gold closed above the upper daily cycle band to confirm that gold is not only in a new daily cycle, but a new intermediate cycle as well. But the question remains: is the gold bear over?


https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...smoneystudies/

GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Oversold and waiting to see if we get a ST bounce. I remain long small caps for now.

IWM - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


VXF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


MrDev ‏@TheMrDev · Jan 8
#NDX & #NDX $VIX RATIO showing red 2-Days below #Bollinger as Oscillator nears #Aug25th Low $RUT $SPX


Bear market is here until April: Pro

https://twitter.com/themrdev