Thread: burrocrat's Account Talk

speaking of magic mike, i found this article, it deals with a sensitive subject in a rather honest and frank way. yes i do sometimes read the women's magazines, and let me tell you they are crazy. this is nothing like any experience i have ever had in a strip club. but who knows? we make our own fortunes i guess.

Sorry, Ladies: Male Strip Clubs ARE NOTHING LIKE Magic Mike

That is, until you actually go to one and realize the reality is far from the steamy scenes that made you pant your way through the first Magic Mike experience. Here, seven ways that actual male strip clubs are nothing like Channing Tatum's version.

Hah burro, I wanted to give you a chuckle, sounded like you needed one. Yes, the comment carried a bit of burro risk, but you're well on your way to becoming a gentleman, the risk was calculated and panned out. good job, friend.

Re retirement calcs, the little engine is still pushing hard on the savings side, the age-calcs don't make me comfortable enough to go out when I'd like to, a couple years from now. If I'm careful and the creek don't rise, I could make it over the bar at about 4 years from now. whether the agency can continue to afford me that long is another question entirely. But I'm shortening those odds by starting to go out on fires again after an extended hiatus from that scene. overtime-they still get about half of it back, but some accumulates on my side and it goes into the Roth account.

Still shopping for the retirement mini-farm property, eyeballing a couple, but more questions need to be asked, especially about water and business operations allowed (HOA context), before I borrow any funds from the tsp to plunk down. I've got time, fortunately or unfortunately, unless the parental scene changes dramatically, which could happen. Just need to not lose what cap has been accumulated up til now and keep on track. I do need to take a little more risk to get there faster.

how come nobody is moving? hardly anybody is trading anything, there is massive volatility and this is when big scores can happen and nobody wants to take the bait? the market has us all pinned down and just raining fire? everybody scared to make a break for it?

is it just 'punch drunkenness'? go ahead hit me again it don't hurt anymore? is it fear? we are all cowering like kicked dogs when the master comes out with his shovel, hoping it is someone else that gets buried today?

i think the fed raises rates and the market breaths a sigh of relief that sanity might return to monetary policy and the market lights up and takes off. but that is 99% wishful thinking and about 1% bullcrap. maybe more bullcrap but i don't do math well this early. today could be the day the dam breaks, one way or the other.

There were allot of moves made in the AT yesterday... you're talking within the Ark? I almost jumped in yesterday but got clobbered at 10 till noon :-/ that will likely cost at least 2 %...

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

There were allot of moves made in the AT yesterday... you're talking within the Ark? I almost jumped in yesterday but got clobbered at 10 till noon :-/ that will likely cost at least 2 %...

looking back i see that there were more trades on the autotracker than i thought. i don't know the average usual volume i guess but it still seems light for the market volatility out there. seems like more would be opportunists getting in and more running for the hills.

Originally Posted by burrocrat

looking back i see that there were more trades on the autotracker than i thought. i don't know the average usual volume i guess but it still seems light for the market volatility out there. seems like more would be opportunists getting in and more running for the hills.

Two up days in the market do not a rally make. I would venture to say there are a number of folks waiting until after the FOMC to make a move.

let me say this up front, i don't mean this to be an excuse or grumbling about some losses i have taken. i recognize that i am responsible for my decisions that i make and that all games have rules. i try not to complain too much about the tsp ift restrictions because it is simply an obstacle to figure out how to overcome. what bothers me though is that i don't think it makes much sense or even needs to be an obstacle, and i think it costs us all way more than we know. i will try to explain.

i think there are two rules that are terribly unfair and hamper any tsp participant's chances to grow their money: 1) the ift deadline of noon eastern time (4 hours before the market closes), and 2) the ift limit of two trades per month. i do not buy the reasons usually put forth to justify these restrictions and i wonder why they are in place. here is what i think (conspiracy alert...).

in general the rough argument goes that the tsp is designed to be a long-term focused savings and not a day-trading market vehicle, that an individual could lose their savings and so we need to limit how bad folks can hurt themselves being stupid, but in reality i think this 'save us from ourselves oversight' costs us far more. i resent that somebody else is basically limiting my freedom with my resources to advance my situation as i see fit and what i am able to do with my money.

1) why the 4 hour delay? because the tsp 'funds' are not really registered securities traded on any open market free exchange, they are proxies designed to mimic the market and the 4 hour delay is to give the technicians to 'sync up' with the actual market. why? who benefits?

2) why the 2 ift per month trading limit? because the 'money' in the tsp funds is not really money. you never actually get it in your paycheck and put it in an envelope and lick the self-adhesive stamp and send anyone any money. it is all digital credits or entries on a balance sheet and nothing real every goes anywhere. it is paid to you, direct deposited as a digital positive entry after other digital subtractions are made, to the irs, to health insurance, to tsp, to united way, to whatever. another thing to keep in mind is that the 'money' in the tsp is not 'now' money, it is 'later' money. as such it is not really a big pile of cash like an asset in a vault, on the tsp balance sheet it is actually a liability to be paid out later. who would want to hold such a big liability? why? who benefits in the interim holding the potential money before the actual money payout happens?

there are many parts to the answers to those two questions of time delay and trade restrictions. some are small easy common sense, and some are bigger and more vague and require more trust/skepticism.

i will address each on their own in a later post(s). but first, who does not benefit? who loses? how?

for that i will point to two trading days. illustrated by two decisions i made. november 17 i got out and if i had got out 1 day later i would have made an additional 1.5%. on december 10 i got in and if i had got in 1 day later i would've saved a 2% loss. why did i make those moves? would i have made the same moves at 3:59 pm as i did at 11:59 am? two trading days, 48 hours, 3.5%. who would love to make 3.5% in a year, let alone 48 hours? i believe that the trading deadline of noon forces us to second guess the market and make decisions with imperfect information, to our detriment. would i have made those trades on those days if had more days to get in and get out rather than just two windows to spot a scenario and execute a plan? would i make different decisions if i had more opportunities to make decisions?

i believe the restrictions of the tsp system hamstring our freedom to advance ourselves and our financial positions. i am ok with any wrong choices i may make, but i am not ok with anybody limiting my choices. and i am definitely not ok with someone else profiting off access to my money while my hands are tied.

i'll get to the rest later.

burros-ark update: f*ck. crap crap crap. i jumped the buyin one day early and took a heavy -2 shot. didn't get out on time and took two more. that hurts. but for all that everybody is only down a little, not a lot. yet. crazy stuff. it would've been nice to just shut the door and coast out, but i don't have that in me, so by extension neither does the system. this might be a long hard ride. chkk chkkk, hup, hiyaah, giddy up. just gonna have to hold on tight and ride this one out, see if it ends in heaven or hell.

Attachment 36352

burros-ark signal: hold. a scary hold. things are out of whack. 40% el vira risk and 80% long exposure? unheard of. but you can't cut and run in times like these else you are first to get shot down. hold. this is gonna hurt some more, bad. at these levels a contrarian buy would be a nice move, except everybody is already in, just mouse out 100%, and lion and squirrel got some change left. none of those beasts are going to move just because of averages or take a flyer. hold. and buckle up.

, oh burro, you better hope those guys don't know what a buckle bunny is. Paybacks, you know. . You mecca me laugh, they have sense of youmor, this too will pass.

buckle bunnies always get screwed. if the boot fits, wear it. with a smile, like a badge of honor, earned it.

I bailed for the loss friday...I absolutely believe Monday will go the other way but I just don't have it in me to swim in these shark infested waters. Waiting for clear direction up before I touch it again....of course I'm retiring like right now so...that is a string incentive to not risk principle.

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