Thread: Nordic's Account Talk

Originally Posted by jpcavin

What's your take on today's action?

Last week I said "I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce here, the question is how much of a bounce would it be and would it soon head back down to lower levels with three weeks to go in August?", so I think today's bounce falls in line with that thought. Now the question is how much of a bounce do we get here and will it shortly reverse back down to continue the rounding pattern that is developing? My inclination is to watch this bounce play out and see what happens...possibly look for a better entry point later in the month, assuming we get one. You know how these summer months can play out. The only thing I do know is that my confidence isn't as high as it was in June or July, that we'll get a reliable bounce off the lower BBs that's worth burning an IFT for. Lot of time left in the month. What's your assessment jpcavin?

I'm not qualified to give an assessment, that is why I value yours as well as that of a few other members on this board. Whatever opinion I have, the opposite always seems to come to pass. My latest bright idea was jumping in around Thursday just because the Traders almanac said the first 9 days of August are historically volatile. I was talked into going in on Friday against my better judgment and it worked out ok. Waiting to see what happens between now and Thursday. Every time I think I've learned something, the only lesson I end up learning time and time again is that it's all a crap shoot. Sometimes I get lucky.

MACDS and BBs are at low enough levels for me to pull the trigger here, although the RSIs could be lower. I'm diversifying among C, S, and I but more heavily with C. Confidence? Honestly not the greatest right now with what we've seen so far this month, bigger picture the equity funds are presently rounding down. Just looking to catch a decent bounce at these levels, and will be ready to exit or maybe try the F fund on any given day. Best of luck to you.

Originally Posted by Nordic

MACDS and BBs are at low enough levels for me to pull the trigger here, although the RSIs could be lower. I'm diversifying among C, S, and I but more heavily with C. Confidence? Honestly not the greatest right now with what we've seen so far this month, bigger picture the equity funds are presently rounding down. Just looking to catch a decent bounce at these levels, and will be ready to exit or maybe try the F fund on any given day. Best of luck to you.

I'm in today too. More on I & S less on C G 65% emergency aw crap fund. :-) Thinking China crap may affect C fund and keep it a bit weak. See how it goes before I add anything else back in. No guts to go in 100%.

Best of luck.

Originally Posted by Nordic

MACDS and BBs are at low enough levels for me to pull the trigger here, although the RSIs could be lower. I'm diversifying among C, S, and I but more heavily with C. Confidence? Honestly not the greatest right now with what we've seen so far this month, bigger picture the equity funds are presently rounding down. Just looking to catch a decent bounce at these levels, and will be ready to exit or maybe try the F fund on any given day. Best of luck to you.

Agree. Makes me feel better about going in today also.
Good luck....you've had a great year, one of the best...now you are going in for the kill on the Tracker, ehh?

p.s.
Don't forget to update your signature. I sometimes do that when I make an IFT but leave my old allocation.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Agree. Makes me feel better about going in today also.
Good luck....you've had a great year, one of the best...now you are going in for the kill on the Tracker, ehh?

p.s.
Don't forget to update your signature. I sometimes do that when I make an IFT but leave my old allocation.

Thanks FWM, yeah I made my IFT using my phone but couldn't figure out how to change my signature on the phone...the page is not set up the same as when I see it on a desktop/laptop, need to figure that out. As for the markets, you know how humbling they can be. I'm just trying to be more patient and maybe less greedy with the timing of my moves...but who knows how long the good luck will last, especially the next few months. If I can cherry pick the easiest 1-2% each month, that's a pretty decent yearly return...easier said than done. Hopefully our move today pans out.

Well, that pretty much sucked. I've been leery of the equity markets for the past few months, but I sure wasn't expecting that kind of waterfall drop...kudos to those who managed to avoid it. At this point I'm going to try and recover as much of this loss as I can before exiting equities. Obviously we are short term oversold, but the big question is how much of a possible bounce will we get, and will the market continue it's decline after the bounce. I suspect that it will continue to decline, as the rounding top pattern seems to have come to fruition the past few days. Elliot Wave Theory has been predicting this decline, albeit not this swiftly necessarily, with the Ending Diagonal Pattern that has been forming for months now.

Hang in there folks, it's been a tough past few days for those who were invested in equities. Bull markets do end eventually and it's important to recognize when the end has begun in order to consider a strategy shift with capital preservation in mind.


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Daneric's Elliott Waves

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Sound the Alarm | Bob Loukas | Safehaven.com

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I managed to recover roughly half of the loss I took since re-entering the equity funds on 8/13, but will still take a loss for the month after exiting to G Fund COB today. After some reflection I've come to the conclusion that greed got the better of me as I had a growing feeling that things would possibly go "gunny sack", based on what I was seeing in the charts. The "buy the bounce off the lower Bollinger Band" play finally failed me this last time and I got bit pretty good. I think that strategy works pretty well during bull markets, but not necessarily as predictable during bear markets....or the occasional waterfall cascade down that we just experienced. The charts are still looking bearish in the intermediate term with the rounded top continuing to form and solidify, and timing the bounces is more hazardous in the current environment. I'll be curious to see how September plays out with it's bearish seasonality and possible Fed rate hike around the corner. Good luck and safe trading.

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"My guess is that we are probably in a wave 2 up instead of a wave [iv] of 1 down. Regardless, the market is at the mercy of the HFT's. Underlying liquidity is quite suspect."
Daneric's Elliott Waves

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More selling today, and we're really only in moderately oversold territory with room to the downside. Unless there's another bout of serious selling like we saw a couple of weeks ago, I probably won't be tempted to jump back into equities until after the upcoming Fed announcement, just too much risk out there and staring a bear market in the face with many negative divergences and death-crosses in equities. Have a good holiday weekend.

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Daneric's Elliott Waves
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"When all time frames combine for negative divergences at new highs it's pretty much the kiss of death for equities. The biggest headache being the size of those nasty divergences that would form. Just huge. So while it's possible if not likely we'll make many tests up over time the bull market is likely on its very last leg. We can hope to see 2200 or so and that's definitely no guarantee, but much beyond that will be difficult and once those divergences kick in that would probably be the end of the bull market. It's my belief that most of the good times from this long running bull are over."

Waiting On The Fed...What The Market Likely Wants....Weeklies Unwind...Big Picture Outlook... | Jack Steiman & Robert New | Safehaven.com


One of many bearish articles floating around out there. If this is indeed the case, which a growing amount evidence is suggesting that it is, then short term exposure to equities and careful IFT timing will be key to making a positive return. A bounce even up to 2100 from these levels is nothing to sneeze at, but let's see how this week plays out first.

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"The top chart reflects that the S&P looks to have created a reversal pattern (bearish wick) yesterday at dual resistance."

Kimble Charting


Let the bearishness continue. The indices had reached their Upper Bollinger Bands recently, which are constricting again by the way, so it's not surprising to see today's decline, the question is how far will it go? Many charts are indicating that we have been in the midst of a Wave 2 retracement of the Wave 1 waterfall decline we experienced in August, and now that Wave 2 is at/near completion...well, no bueno! Wave 3s down are normally the most severe, so caution is definitely warranted here. Now that the Fed has spoken and left rates alone for the time being, I'll be very interested to see how the markets react during the next couple of months. Perhaps it will be a sign that the economy isn't as strong as we thought if the Fed is hesitant to begin even modest rate hikes...perhaps the markets won't like that very much. Very risky environment we are currently in, trade carefully.

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Daneric's Elliott Waves

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