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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #445

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    Gainesville, Florida, USA
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    24,244

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The time to get nervous is when nobody's nervous.

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  3. #446

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Stumbled into some old threads from our good old friend Show-Me.

    He continues to live on...and something prompted me to reminisce a bit and look at some old threads of his very good, brave soul.

    Anyway, one of Show's favorite things to talk about was "Oscar"...namely Oscar Carboni...who does a poor mans version of Mad Money every week or so.
    His latest update was July 14th, with some buy and sell signals.
    Worth keeping an eye on Oscar's updates....as well as peeking in on some of Show's last posts. A good way to pay tribute to someone is to occasionally look back and re-live some of those times.

    So, courtesy of the spirit of Show-Me...here's Oscar's most recent "Short Term Trader" update.
    Enjoy.

    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #447

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    76,383

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I post Oscar's and others daily and weekly every morning in the Media section under Market Analysis.
    Show-me was one of my all time favorites, Family man, GREAT Father, a carpenter, kept Bees. A smart fellow I miss him a bunch!



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  7. #448

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    FWM, it would be great to see higher highs soon; I'm just not seeing where they are coming from right now. BUT, I like your thinking and would be really happy if things play out that way.

    FS
    I am seriously thinking "BREAKOUT" from our tight 5-month trading range, between 2130-2040 as seen using S&P as barometer. I've heard some analysts say that's the tightest 5 month trading range over that period that they've seen in recent history. I'm too lazy right now to go back and verify that claim, so I'll just take their word for it.

    We seem to have the perfect ingredients for a breakout rally; the disappearance of ongoing geopolitical/structural threats to the market...BUT...still enough worries in the background to keep people on the sidelines...until they start seeing the low volume gains...and one by one those last to the party start jumping in, sending the market higher.
    The classic climb up the "Wall of Worry".



    The improvements on the geopolitical/structural part....
    - Greece bailout
    - China Gov't pulling out all the stops to (successfully) reverse the crashing Shanghai Index.
    - Iran Deal (believe it or not...but most analysts are positive about it from a global market perspective).

    The worries....
    - Future rate hike MAYBE September or more likely December....or maybe not till next year. Perfect for volatility spikes that can be profited on if timed right.

    - Dow Transports and Oil going down, typically signs of economic slowdowns...but they've been doing that for awhile now, and even if they are the long term trend, they've dropped so far so fast (without really denting the market) that e brief reversal, like a prolonged dead cat bounce, is likely...which would really send stocks up in the short-medium term (several weeks).

    Otherwise our economy is structurally sound and improving. Improving enough that the Fed is thinking about a rate hike to make sure it doesn't overheat and bring inflation.

    Another encouraging sign, the S&P, after going on a tear the past 5-7 days, only had a slight negative pause today, not a frenzied sell-off to lock in profits of worried investors. That's a strong sign, given that the S&P is less than 1% from its all-time high.

    Look for a breakout to AND PAST new highs next week. Any weakness should be bought...not sold. We just had our encounter with the 200 day EMA...a more serious drop should be many weeks away. Don't worry about the 1-2% down weeks that get mixed in, they are made up for by 2-3% up weeks.

    However, geopolitical surprises can and do happen, so always gotta keep an eye on that, but if one lets THAT keep them out of the market, then they should NEVER go into the market ever, and should just live in the G fund.

    When your gut tells you that all the threats are over and its safe to jump in...that's exactly when the brief profit-taking exit door hits you in the a$$.
    Its hit me in my a$$ets many times over the years....but I'm finally starting to figure this $h!t out.
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 07-17-2015 at 09:51 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  9. #449

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,148

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Still 100% "S". Hope your right, would be nice to see double digit profits.
    May the force be with us.

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  11. #450

    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    7,885
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    My new system agrees that we go up from here for at least a month. Missed getting out of F fund today.
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]


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  13. #451

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Appreciate your insights FWM. My biggest concern continues to be Kramer's recent warning (a month ago) about a downward turn in the markets based on Fib retracement. However, the "when" of that happening is unknown. I agree with you that a breakout is likely and given the news, probably to the positive side. I'm on the Lily Pad for the rest of July. Looking forward to opportunities in August. Thanks.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  15. #452

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    Still 100% "S". Hope your right, would be nice to see double digit profits.
    Yeah, S Fund has been under-performing again. I'm glad I spread my entry out among C, S, & I this time. Still, I have a larger portion, 40%, in S so I'm hoping to see it catch up.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  17. #453

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Appreciate your insights FWM. I'm on the Lily Pad for the rest of July. Looking forward to opportunities in August. Thanks.

    FS
    80% on G. Can't wait for fresh IFTs in August. Hopefully, FIRE is correct! Last year, August was kind to me.
    Emotions should never play a role in one's investing strategy!
    No to Greed...No to Fear!
    http://share.robinhood.com/mariloc1

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  19. #454

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    680

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Even though we didn't hold the line at 2067 and went to 2048 July 8th I think we have made the bounce up in ten days and can breathe a sigh of relief.

    Carolyn Boroden Featured on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money - June 11, 2015

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  21. #455

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Appreciate your insights FWM. My biggest concern continues to be Kramer's recent warning (a month ago) about a downward turn in the markets based on Fib retracement. However, the "when" of that happening is unknown. I agree with you that a breakout is likely and given the news, probably to the positive side. I'm on the Lily Pad for the rest of July. Looking forward to opportunities in August. Thanks.

    FS
    Just FYI, that Fib pattern has already finished.
    Cramer had an update a few weeks after the initial Fib analysis, confirming it as 2067 was breached BUT giving 2 other levels of support. in the 2040's and 2020's.
    Obviously, the 1st support level held and we've retraced well past 50% (more like 90%), so seriously, forget about that previous Fib. worry about the next one.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #456

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Darn, Guess I misplaced my Fib Detector. I'll have to buy a new one..

    BTW... Thanks..

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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