Thread: Sensei's account talk

Originally Posted by Sensei

The herd is now allocated thusly: 56% CS&I, 39.5% G&F.

That was on 2/27. Today, we had a bit of a shift back to safety, as 42.86% are now in G&F. Most of the movement went to G. Hopefully (for me) the market zigs while the herd zags.

I check in from time to time and report on the herd's position based on the AT, as reported on Ocean's List. According to that list, there are 1393 members on the AT. As a non-subscriber to a premium service, I can only access "The AT of the Unwashed". Only 1043 of us are on this list. A little basic division reveals that 25% of the members on Ocean's List are subscribers to a premium service. So, that begs the question - how reliable is Ocean's List as a measurement of where dumb-money is allocated? Supposedly, the premium service are smart money, otherwise one wouldn't feel justified in spending money on them, right? So, assuming everyone who subscribes to a premium is following its suggested moves, 25% of Ocean's List should be comprised of the smart money. Of course, you never see the herd change its allocation by 25% at a time, so obviously the subscribers are not all moving in accord to the signals.

Anyway, the "herd" (be it dumb or kinda smart) is currently allocated 35% G/F, and 65% stocks & L funds. Seems overly bullish. Then again, maybe not?

All I know is that March did indeed provide a tradeable dip, but it would have required jumping to the sidelines on the first trading day. Something I was not prepared to do. So, I've been patiently absorbing pain, and now feeling somewhat optimistic that I'll recoup my losses. Continuing to follow the philosophy of "less is more". Continuing to hold C&S. Based on the last couple years, we've seen strong finishes to March and rocky Aprils, as people try to front-run "Sell in May". Lookout for it again this year.

sensei, this is something about time that has always bothered me and i can't figure out, maybe you can help me?

right now in japan, are you finishing yesterday? or starting tomorrow? what is the time lag from west coast u.s.?

burro, when I was stationed in Ohio and frequently working in Japan I used to think of Japan as 13 hours ahead of Ohio which meant that even if it was tomorrow in Japan it was never yesterday anywhere unless you were in Japan then it could be yesterday in Ohio.


This meant I had to phone in the sitrep at 2100 from Japan and check in again at 0500 the next day for yesterdays instructions to implement today.


I hope this helps.


Also if you are sitting on a porch in Alaska looking in to Russia you are always looking at tomorrow.


I think this means that Sensei knows the closing prices when it is only 3AM where you and I are so shouldn't he be sharing?


PO

Originally Posted by PessOptimist

Also if you are sitting on a porch in Alaska looking in to Russia you are always looking at tomorrow.

dude, if i am sitting on a porch in alaska the only thing i'm gonna be looking at is sarah palin's dress on the lawn. and a full moon.

I never mentioned anything about Ms Palin or any of her family. Just sayin.


Anyway just think about Japan/Okinawa as always being in the future, never the pasture. The International Date Line has nothing to do with that 900 number you may have.


One other thing burro, don't go changin' just to please me. Don't ever change dude. We love you just the way you are.


PO

To further confuse you, we don't change clocks for daylight savings over here. So, what time is it NOW?!? Hehe.

Actually, it's real easy. When the NYSE opens at 9:30AM, it's 10:30PM here (during daylight savings - during standard time, it's 11:30PM). So I can now usually check the open before I go to bed. During standard daylight time, I usually zonk out before the market opens.

Originally Posted by Sensei

To further confuse you, we don't change clocks for daylight savings over here. So, what time is it NOW?!? Hehe.

Actually, it's real easy. When the NYSE opens at 9:30AM, it's 10:30PM here (during daylight savings - during standard time, it's 11:30PM). So I can now usually check the open before I go to bed. During standard daylight time, I usually zonk out before the market opens.

Ouch, I'm glad I don't live there, I'd never get any sleep

Would be nice if i could somewhere where the markets open up just after I get home

Yeah, it was apparently summer in Ohio When I was making these commutes. So I believe that it is now 1021 AM in Okinawa and always will be 16 hours difference as Arizona doesn't believe in DST either.

When not contemplating the time difference we occupied our time answering the question "where in the United States are you from" to which we would answer Ohio the response usually being "ohayo gozaimasu" but where are you from in the states?


Fun times.

​PO

Somewhat despite my self and my efforts at discipline, I decided to sell on Friday. Thursday's gains were evaporating, sentiment was decidedly bullish, and the herd is positioned roughly 2 to 1 in stocks. I just felt like it was the right time to be a contrarian. Reading most of the comments on this site, though, I am seeing a good argument for calling a bottom to this little pullback. If nothing else, certainly the weekly chart of the S&P should be suggesting a rebound. We'll see. I have one more IFT to get me back into stocks this month.

Originally Posted by Sensei

Somewhat despite my self and my efforts at discipline, I decided to sell on Friday. Thursday's gains were evaporating, sentiment was decidedly bullish, and the herd is positioned roughly 2 to 1 in stocks. I just felt like it was the right time to be a contrarian. Reading most of the comments on this site, though, I am seeing a good argument for calling a bottom to this little pullback. If nothing else, certainly the weekly chart of the S&P should be suggesting a rebound. We'll see. I have one more IFT to get me back into stocks this month.

Smart move, you're in a great place to have that extra IFT