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Thread: alevin's account talk

  1. #757

    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    San Diego, CA
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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Skeet shooting is where the targets cross left to right, right to left.
    Trap shooting is where the target is launched up in front of you. (Pigeons were released from "traps" in the old days.)

    For those reading but not knowing the difference.
    THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
    Tracker =
    Check my position

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  3. #758

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    what are sporting clays? How are they different from trap or skeet?
    Frixxx got it.

    Sporting clays are like Frisbee golf. Its a walking course with different stations. More of an unknown until you have gone through it a few times. Even then they can relocate the throw stations so that it does not become to predictable. Plus they have rabbits, Clay birds that role on the ground. Becoming pretty popular.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  5. #759

    Join Date
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    inland Northwest
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    4,124

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    OK, time for update on newest chart model performance. Signal finally shifted as of yesterday am (dropped to 2d deviation). Since its such a high-risk market, I decided to wait a day for confirmation. Got confirmation today (signal started going sideways). Yup. Time to take some risk. still not going whole hog, model may have given consistent signal the past 3 years, but it's a very spooky market. Model signal says not so risky I can't have some money in to win, tho. Going 30C. NDX gave short-duration buy signal last week-I didn't jump then. NDX leads the SPX signalwise, from what I've read, so will be watching the NDX for early signal to sell. The charts do not give signal at end of day the day it's triggered because the site where I'm creating the charts updates the data and consequently the chart signals the next morning.

    spx 10-20 SMA 3yr 2-3-15.png
    http://www.indexindicators.com/chart...s-3y-x-x-20ma/

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  7. #760

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    sp500-3y 10-20 ma 2-5-15.png

    Signal went from buy to hold as of this morning. We'll see how long that lasts. buy signal came faster than usual for this model. 3 days after the buy signal showed up (the drop to 2SD). No change on the NDX model yet. Wondering how fast the sell signal will come. I like this model so far. hope whippy market topping process doesn't burn me.

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  9. #761

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    The signal has changed since the last time I posted this chart. Signal has now moved up into the normal sell signal zone up at 1 standard deviation, started last Thursday, I waited for confirmation Friday that the sell signal had started to move sideways. it did. So I thought earlier this weekend that I would move out of C fund as of COB today, but after further reviewing the normal sell signals, it seems to be typical for the signal to come and stay a little while before the market actually tops out, so I decided to stay a little longer.

    I'd post a current chart, but you'll have to use your imagination with this older one. for some reason the site where I'm pulling these charts from has been down all day today. Every other site I've tried, still works so it's something with the server for the charting site. Hope the site will be back up and running tomorrow morning so I can see what the signal did today. I may or may not move in the am. It depends. There's hesitation in the chart, and it's a dangerfull market, so I may move just to go to ground and play it on the safer side. will post tomorrow if I actually decide to make a move.

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  11. #762

    Join Date
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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    figured out the problem with accessing the charting website. My normal puter went to the shop late last week, and I'm operating off my old old XP desktop until the other comes back from the shop. Hadn't used it in quite awhile. Went to upgrade silverlight over the weekend, following update instructions, didn't remove older version first (instructions didn't say I needed to do that, I checked beforehand). Install failed. NOW it said I should have removed the older version first. So I went to uninstall the old version. that was a challenge, took some doing. but the new version is failing to install still, and refuses to uninstall so I can start over. That's why I can't check current status of my chart. Dang it. Only figured it out last night when I went to do some FreeStockCharting, which also requires Silverlight.

    Looks like I'll play conservative today and drop my 30%C down to 15% C, 15% F. That way I might get some incremental benefit from staying in longer, or at least minimal damage, until I get one or both puters back up and running with Silverlight, maybe I'll play Squalebear's % game back and forth for rest of the month. This one's going in the shop just as soon as I get the other one back. It has a couple other software issues now besides Silverlight, due to not having been updated in awhile in general due to extended lack of use.

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  13. #763

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by alevin View Post
    figured out the problem with accessing the charting website. My normal puter went to the shop late last week, and I'm operating off my old old XP desktop until the other comes back from the shop. Hadn't used it in quite awhile. Went to upgrade silverlight over the weekend, following update instructions, didn't remove older version first (instructions didn't say I needed to do that, I checked beforehand). Install failed. NOW it said I should have removed the older version first. So I went to uninstall the old version. that was a challenge, took some doing. but the new version is failing to install still, and refuses to uninstall so I can start over. That's why I can't check current status of my chart. Dang it. Only figured it out last night when I went to do some FreeStockCharting, which also requires Silverlight.

    Looks like I'll play conservative today and drop my 30%C down to 15% C, 15% F. That way I might get some incremental benefit from staying in longer, or at least minimal damage, until I get one or both puters back up and running with Silverlight, maybe I'll play Squalebear's % game back and forth for rest of the month. This one's going in the shop just as soon as I get the other one back. It has a couple other software issues now besides Silverlight, due to not having been updated in awhile in general due to extended lack of use.
    i find that by just clicking ok on any and all popups, nearly every program on the internet works flawlessly. they'll automatically install the software you need on your hardware. some will even say they are located within 8 miles of you and want date now. i'm glad al gore invented the free internet, you never know what you will come across.
    100g

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  15. #764

    Join Date
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    3,416

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by burrocrat View Post
    i find that by just clicking ok on any and all popups, nearly every program on the internet works flawlessly. they'll automatically install the software you need on your hardware. some will even say they are located within 8 miles of you and want date now. i'm glad al gore invented the free internet, you never know what you will come across.
    Good god...
    I thought I was bad...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #765

    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    Good god...
    I thought I was bad...
    i can prove to you the internet is a lie. i live in a town of 400 folks, 11 miles and 30 miles from the next nearest settlements. there are only 3 single gals out here, but one of them is seeing someone regularly. there is not 168 of them within 8 miles of me. none of them look like that. and not one of them want to 'date' me right now. the internet is a lie.
    100g


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  19. #766

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    You're telling on yourself, b. It's all about impulse control. Your wandering clicker finger is apparently far more adventurous than mine. But of course as long as you are discerning and not believing all you read or see, you'll be ok. I just know it.

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  21. #767

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    So I checked indicator status on my new chart indicator strategy site. Very cool. New behaviors, variations on what I thought I'd be seeing. Mental calibration continues.

    sp500-2y 5-10 ma 2yr 2-21-15.png
    This is early warning signal (5 x 10 ma)-drop below the mean = sell signal. The 10 x 20 signal hasn't changed yet. Still going at +1SD -sideways.

    I read somewhere that Nasdaq100 is early warning for spx. So I've been watching that one also, both 5 x 10ma and 10 x 20 ma timeframes. Neither signal has dropped from +1SD-yet. This time the spx 5 x 10 is the early warning system. Hmm. Glad I downshifted my spx allocation when I did, can't wait for next month's signals.

    nasdaq100- 2y 5-10ma 2-21-15.png

    Maybe I'll choose S next month. or not. depends on whether we get a drop down to the -2SD on one or the other index as good entry spot next month. We shall see. I love my new indicator system. My brain works better with this signal (so far) as a 2-IFT TSP system, than nearly all the others I've experimented with over the past several years. My account returns are already doing better too (so far). I might actually meet my pretty modest goal for the year.

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  23. #768

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    Default Re: alevin's account talk

    Hey batter batter! Swing!

    wish I could decide which side to hit the ball from. problem is if I do and miss, it could hurt pretty good.

    sp500-2y 5-10 ma 2-28-15.png

    If I look back at 2013, I'd be bailing right about now, especially if I had more in C than I do at the moment. If I look at behavior in 2014, I'd be letting things ride just a leetle longer, not much, but a leetle. Question is will I see that drop to the 2d deviation, or is this deviant market going to resort back to 2013 pattern where the market never does drop to the 2d dev. Point being, do I stick with the toe I have in the water now and wait for a lower indicator drop, or do I just wait for a measurable drop in the index and look for an indicator move back up to 1SD and/orindex move up to get in while the indicator flatlines a bit longer. decisions decisions.

    Guess I'll let this one play out while I get a little sun on my legs, see what else develops signalwise before I jump bigger one way or the other. It was sunny today, but not bikini weather yet by a long shot. Besides, us fair-skinned types don't do well with lengthy exposure to the sun, not without a bit of sunscreen to counterbalance.

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