Thread: bmneveu's Account Talk

Starting yesterday, I've increased my monthly contributions by almost double. I made rank and am also moving to a more expensive area, so I'm using some of that money to beef up my TSP. I won't feel it if I never had it. Pay your future self first.

Originally Posted by bmneveu

Starting yesterday, I've increased my monthly contributions by almost double. I made rank and am also moving to a more expensive area, so I'm using some of that money to beef up my TSP. I won't feel it if I never had it. Pay your future self first.

Congratulations on the promotion.

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but 2063 looks like a resistance level we need to clear and close above decisively to break this lull period. As of this writing we are at 2067, which is great, but closing here or higher would be even better. I consider this very bullish and am not getting out unless we fall below that level today.

Edit: My numbers are referring to the S&P 500.

Originally Posted by bmneveu

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but 2063 looks like a resistance level we need to clear and close above decisively to break this lull period. As of this writing we are at 2067, which is great, but closing here or higher would be even better. I consider this very bullish and am not getting out unless we fall below that level today.

Edit: My numbers are referring to the S&P 500.

I see a short term triple top on SPX that is scaring me out of the market today. I'll be IFTing out by the deadline today and look for a lower entry price within a week or two.

IFT today 100G

Originally Posted by bmneveu

IFT today 100G

I have a sinking feeling that I should have done the same.....

Figures, right after I IFT out of the market, we have a strong up day and break the resistance I was looking at. 2063 is under us now. Now I don't know what to do. Aghhhhh

SPX 11FEB15.png

get back in

I know how you feel. Last year I rode the S Fund all the way down. Finally, on Feb 5, 2014 I bailed to the F Fund. The recovery started the very next day and kept going. I refused to chase but it just kept going. I paid the price as you can see from my last years returns. I never made it back up. It only got worse when I tried to do so.

I'm not saying this will happen to you. It's just that we need some kind of trigger of when to abandon a bad IFT. Unfortunately the 2 IFT limit keeps me in bad trades way too long because we can't afford to whipsaw.

Did somebody say Whipsaw?

Cactus, I was in a similar situation last year. I've changed my approach to much longer holds (in or out) because of the IFT limit (no knee jerk reactions). I'm doing better than last year so far. Still, need to hawk all the great analysis going on in the threads and stay on top of things.

I'm glad that's working for you, Whipsaw. Any timeframe on those longer holds? I only executed 8 IFTs last year, so it's not like I tried to use 2 IFTs every month.

My problem last year was relying too much on perceived support and resistance. I do better following a trend. Still, last year the trend changed right after my Feb IFT and I need to follow these trend changes without chasing and getting whipsawed.